Amsterhammer said:
I like to think that I possess a reasonably decent vocabulary. Sadly, the words at my command are insufficient to do justice to the total, abject awfulness of the comprehensive display of gross ineptitude that was the Skins' 'performance' against a really poor 1-8 team.
And I picked TB for Survival. My consolation is if I hadn’t picked them, I probably would have picked HOU, and been wrong, or Cincy, and been wrong, and if I hadn’t picked the Rams earlier (and been wrong about them, too), I would have definitely picked them vs. Denver, and been wrong, too.
Survival: WASH (Sorry, Amster, if you can’t join ‘em, lick ‘em)
Past picks: MIA*, NYJ, MIN, TE, BUF*, OAK, StL*, BAL, JAX, CHI, TB*
Alpe d'Huez said:
Adding Seattle to my next week's Elimination.
Me, too. It’s been about ten years since a defending SB champion won a postseason game the following year, and that streak doesn’t look in danger now. SE is now tied with SF, and everyone has been saying the 49ers are unlikely to make the playoffs. And I don’t think anyone has a more brutal last 6 games than the Seahawks. Two vs. AZ, two vs. the 49ers, Philly and the Rams. There isn’t one of those six games you can look at and say that SE will definitely win, though I’m sure they’ll be favored at home vs. SF and the Rams, and maybe AZ.
For comparison, the 49ers have a remaining schedule that looks much more encouraging. Washington at home, SE at home (a virtual must-win if they want to make the playoffs), followed by the Raiders in Oakland, which is like a home game, and against the worst team in the NFL. They could easily be 9-4 at that point. That’s followed by the Hawks in SE, a game they can afford to lose if they are 9-4 going in, then SD at home and AZ at home. By the last game of the season, the Cardinals will almost certainly have clinched the division, and maybe HFA, in which case they will be resting their starters. So the 49ers have a good chance of going 11-5, if they can’t go 10-6 then they aren’t playing well enough to do anything in the postseason, anyway. They own the tie-breaker vs. Dallas and Philly, and likely would get it over SE if the Hawks split with SF and AZ and lose to either Philly or the Rams.
Their defense has been playing well, and can only get better now that Aldon Smith is back, with Bowman and Willis to follow. The offense continues to massively underachieve, though. They have one of the best OL in the NFL, one of the best RBs, a great set of WRs, one of the highest paid QBs—and they still struggle to score, bottom half of the league in pts/game and yds/game. They’ve scored more than 30 only once all season.
Elimination: SE, IND
Already listed: NYG, JAX, KC, MIA, BUF, StL, OAK, TE, CLE, WASH, PIT, NYJ, NO, HOU, TB, MIN, CHI, ATL, CAR, CIN
This week provided some interesting answers to burning questions:
How good is GB at home?
Green Bay's offense was in good hands again with Rodgers, who broke Tom Brady's NFL record of 288 straight passes at home without an interception. Rodgers finished 22 of 36.
The Packers set another record by putting up at least 28 points in a first half for the fourth straight home game. They've outscored opponents 128-9 before halftime during that stretch.
That’s an average half-time lead of 32-2. That is beyond sick.
How close is the AFC North?
Last week, Cleveland was in first place. This week, they’re tied for last place.
How certain is the AFC South?
Indy was supposed to be surest lock for a playoff spot, more than 95% likely according to a recent analysis before this past week’s games. Well, don’t look now, but they lead Houston by only one game, and they play the Texans again. The rest of their schedule looks pretty soft, except for Dallas, but Houston’s schedule is not tough, either, except for Cincy and Baltimore. I expect when the dust settles, the Colts will win the division, but I wouldn’t put 95% odds on that happening, and anyway, I’m eliminating them from the SB sweepstakes. Their defense is too suspect (who TF is Jason Gray???), and they’ll probably have to beat the Pats in NE to make it to the SB.
How bad is the NFC South?
Two 4-6 teams are tied for first place, one of which hasn't won a single game outside of the division. Overall, teams in this division are 6-20-1 vs. teams outside the division.TB, which has been one of the worst teams in the NFL this year, is only two games out of first place. Think about that, TB--which would have to win all its remaining games just to finish .500--could conceivably win this division. Sure, it's not likely, but the Bucs are the best team in the division against opponents outside the division--at 2-4.
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