I liked your post, mostly because I'm a Raiders fan.
TBH, I'm still not entirely sold on the Raiders as a serious contender, though Carr had a superstar game, and they are playing better now that they have a decent coach.
My gut tells me he'll sit for several weeks, and if it seems possible he can throw, and not suffer major injury after getting hit (as he will get targeted, as you say),
and the Browns are in contention at that point, he'll play. But if we get to week 12 or so and he's still hurting, and the Browns are stuck around .500 in that division, he may as well get the surgery done and over with.
While they will win games, and with Mahomes their offense remains explosive and dangerous, I'd be really surprised if KC wins a playoff game, even if they make the playoffs. They are weak on both sides of the line, O and D, and that usually kills teams in tough games. Like, almost always. Or...always.
I know everyone is amazed by Arizona, and the thumping they gave the Rams was no fluke. But if the playoffs started next week, I'd fully expect Tampa to find a way to beat them. They have had bad quarters, lapses,and are missing players, but they still seem to have an "it" factor that tells me they are built to win when it matters most, more than AZ even.
Despite the loss to Tennessee and "paltry" 4-2 record, I still think Buffalo is the best team in the AFC, and one of the most stacked, potent teams in the entire league.
Cincy looks like a playoff team, or do they?