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Eyeballs Out

Eyeballs Out

Jun 19, 2009
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If I was an Eagles fan I'd have reacted badly too. That was an inexcusable loss from the position they were in. OK, Barkley should have caught the ball and your pass D should not have crumbled the way it did but neither should even have been in that position. You have a 3 point lead with 3rd and 3 at the opposition 13 yard line, 1:45 left on the clock and the Falcons have no timeouts left. You've paid a big RB in free agency, you've got probably the biggest offensive line in the league and you've got that QB sneak which hardly ever gets stopped. I don't know what would make you do anything other run the ball again on 3rd down (taking the clock down to 1 min remaining). Frankly I'd be going again on 4th down if I had to rather than kick the FG (which they almost botched anyway) - worst case, there's still a huge difference between Atlanta taking over backed up near the 10 and starting at the 30. Maybe they haven't updated the analytics for the new kickoff rules yet (!)
 
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Unchained

Sep 5, 2016
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jmdirt said:
ATL. Cousins not too bad.
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Thinking the same thing!!
Both quarterbacks ditched the ball instead of getting sacked for a loss as second nature. Good game, good post game interview by the Hurts Locker, he said loss hurts for sure, will learn from it, counts on his teammates every day of the week, he is not going to change. Reporters wanted more he was not giving it.
Can Dalton deliver!!!
Will Cowboys get crushed 2 weeks in a row!!?
Can Chargers not self destruct?
No Pacheco, No Cooper Kupp, no McCaffrey, wow only week 3!!! Miami w QB that has taken less than 30 snaps in year previous.
 
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Sciatic

Mar 4, 2011
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jmdirt said:
Bad weekend for chain crews, two passed out, one fell on his head.
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The chain crews crack me up. Here we are in multi-billion dollar business in a high-tech age, broadcast around the world. Yet to determine critical close calls on the 2nd-most important offensive element of the game—first downs—what do we see? Two old guys come jogging out with sticks and a chain :)
 
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Alpe d'Huez

Alpe d'Huez

Mar 11, 2009
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Cousins was cold as ice that last drive.

The issue with Hurts is he's not very accurate deep, can hesitate, or hold the ball waiting for someone deep to get obviously open, and teams are figuring this out.

Sciatic said:
Chain gang...I think the fact they keep it is part of the “show” (dramatization) that is the NFL.
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Many other sports have this same issue, refuse to adopt technology, or even change. Holding onto tradition for the sake of tradition. Baseball, even cycling (disc brakes, hookless rims, podium girls - finally gone, mostly, etc.). Soccer is maybe the worst with it's "laws" etched in stone.

Unchained said:
Can Dalton deliver!!!
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Dalton is actually 4-0 lifetime against the Raiders. His HC during most of that time however was Marvin Lewis, who is an AC now with the Raiders. Last year Dalton looked decent in the one game he started for the Panthers, which was much better than Young looked all season. I think the game will be closer than people realize, and fairly low scoring, giving Dalton and the Panthers a chance. Unless Dalton flat out sucks, I think he has the starting job maybe the rest of the season. It's more likely he'll be a game manager, and play okay.
Unchained said:
Will Cowboys get crushed 2 weeks in a row!!?
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They play the Ravens, at home. If Dallas wins, Baltimore will go 0-3 for the first time in forever. If Dallas loses, they will fall to 1-2 and there could be some sort of revolt from fans.

The following week Dallas gets to play the Giants. The Ravens? They take on the Bills.
 
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Alpe d'Huez

Alpe d'Huez

Mar 11, 2009
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Mike Florio brought up a possible situation. Let's pretend...
  • Shedeur Sanders has an excellent season for Colorado, wins the Heisman, and is certain to be the #1 pick in the NFL draft. (Replace Sanders with Ward, Beck, etc.)
  • Carolina finishes the season 2-15, and has the top pick in the draft. They outwardly say they are done with Bryce, and will draft his replacement in Sanders. Sort of like Arizona taking Kyler Murray a year after Josh Rosen.
  • Sanders (with input from his father) says there is no way on earth he's playing for Carolina. And if do they draft him, he'll rescind his eligibility, sit out a year, live off his NIL money, and declare again in the 2026 NFL draft (yes, he can do this).
  • Carolina calls his bluff, and drafts him anyway.
  • Sanders refuses to sign, then spends the entire missed season working with anyone from the QB Collective, IMG Academy, Steve Clarkson, Chris Weinke, etc, getting him truly ready for the NFL, akin to a rookie QB who sits a year and never takes a single snap. Not quite the same as bonding with your coaches and team, but better than being stuck in Carolina.
 
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Eyeballs Out

Eyeballs Out

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Alpe d'Huez said:
Mike Florio brought up a possible situation. Let's pretend...
  • Shedeur Sanders has an excellent season for Colorado, wins the Heisman, and is certain to be the #1 pick in the NFL draft. (Replace Sanders with Ward, Beck, etc.)
  • Carolina finishes the season 2-15, and has the top pick in the draft. They outwardly say they are done with Bryce, and will draft his replacement in Sanders. Sort of like Arizona taking Kyler Murray a year after Josh Rosen.
  • Sanders (with input from his father) says there is no way on earth he's playing for Carolina. And if do they draft him, he'll rescind his eligibility, sit out a year, live off his NIL money, and declare again in the 2026 NFL draft (yes, he can do this).
  • Carolina calls his bluff, and drafts him anyway.
  • Sanders refuses to sign, then spends the entire missed season working with anyone from the QB Collective, IMG Academy, Steve Clarkson, Chris Weinke, etc, getting him truly ready for the NFL, akin to a rookie QB who sits a year and never takes a single snap. Not quite the same as bonding with your coaches and team, but better than being stuck in Carolina.
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Florio always loves to push a narrative. In this case it's his idea that the draft should be scrapped because it's just helping evil billionaire owners to exploit poor college kids by not letting them play for who they want to play for and/or go to the highest bidder. So he'll be cheering on anything that helps to jeopardise the draft.

Personally, when similar situations occurred in the past I always found it a bit disrespectful towards the players and fanbase of the team involved. At least in the Elway. Kelly and Eli Manning examples they went on to prove their arrogance was justified / somewhat justified but how absurd would it look now if Bryce Young had said to Carolina a couple of years ago "I haven't played a down in the NFL yet but I'm far too good for you so I won't play for you". Still, business is business.

In reality I find it hard to believe any high draft pick would end up sitting out a year for a few reasons. Firstly, we all know rookie QBs are highly sought after (some might say very highly overdrafted) and that's unlikely to change any time soon - so I think there would still be a queue of teams willing to give up the farm to trade with Carolina before or even after they made the pick. Secondly, sitting out is just shortening your NFL career by a year, whereas the trend is for college kids to do the opposite i.e. forego multiple years of college eligibility just to get to the NFL earlier. That's not surprising because each year lost could end up being worth $50m+. Finally, in most drafts it's going to be a basket-case franchise with the #1 pick, that's just the way the draft works and it's odds on that Carolina would be picking first again in 2026 :)
 
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Nomad

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Eyeballs Out said:
In reality I find it hard to believe any high draft pick would end up sitting out a year for a few reasons. Firstly, we all know rookie QBs are highly sought after (some might say very highly overdrafted) and that's unlikely to change any time soon - so I think there would still be a queue of teams willing to give up the farm to trade with Carolina before or even after they made the pick. Secondly, sitting out is just shortening your NFL career by a year, whereas the trend is for college kids to do the opposite i.e. forego multiple years of college eligibility just to get to the NFL earlier. That's not surprising because each year lost could end up being worth $50m+. Finally, in most drafts it's going to be a basket-case franchise with the #1 pick, that's just the way the draft works and it's odds on that Carolina would be picking first again in 2026 :)
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The situation with Young is perplexing to say the least. Did the "expert QB scouts" get it wrong or is there a development problem within the Panther's organization?

If you look at Young's "Draft & Combine Prospect Profile" ranking, his score was 6.82 = "Year 1 starter" (the rankings run from 5.50 = "Priority undrafted free agent" to 8.0 "The perfect prospect").

On his scouting report, Young's strengths were listed as great accuracy, good rush awareness, pocket mobility, ability to read coverages & playing in a pro-style offense under OC Bill O'Brien at Bama. His weaknesses were obviously his size, slight frame, durability & lack of arm strength (though he can make all the necessary throws including the deep ball).


By comparison, Stroud's prospect profile ranking was similar at 6.70, also projected as a "Year 1 starter" (Stroud also played in a pro-style offense under Ron Day at Ohio St).


And looking at this year's top 2 QBs in the draft; Wlliams came in at 6.74 & Daniels at 6.73, both listed as "Year 1 starters."
 
Alpe d'Huez

Alpe d'Huez

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I think a big problem may lie right in that statement "projected year-1 starter". Well, what do Mitch Trubisky, Zach Wilson, Josh Rosen, Tre Lance, Mac Jones, Dwayne Haskins, Sam Darnold, Deshaun Watson, Paxton Lynch, Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston, Blake Bortles, Teddy Bridgewater, Johnny Manzeil, EJ Manuel, Brandon Weeden, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder, Tim Tebow, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman, and JaMarcus Russell all have in common?

They were all drafted in the first round, and most all of them started in year one. And most of them busted, or definitely underperformed, or became a so-so QB who made it in the league, but never did much. But all were expected to pretty much revitalize their franchise, if not immediately, very quickly.*

The Athletic wrote an article this week how throwing rookies to the wolves is akin to malpractice, but it's all too common. They give good reasons why it should stop, and I'll add there are some examples proving it should stop and the rookie should sit at least a year, if the team is good (Jordan Love, Patrick Mahomes), and maybe longer until it can help that QB.

But I also don't see this changing. While the bust to star ratio is a rotten one, NFL owners are more impatient than ever before, and they expect every rookie QB to have a year like CJ Stroud, and point to him as proof it's possible. The NFL is no different than the rest of Corporate America: immediate results are expected, or else! So I see little to no chance of this changing. In fact, I think it could get worse. I think there's a very good chance next year Beck, Ward, Sanders, Ewers and Moss will all be drafted in the first round, and it will take incredible willpower for a coach to not start them, and convince the team's owner this is the right decision.

*Yes, I realize Sam Darnold is playing well now, but he wasn't earlier. Yes, I know Mark Sanchez, Blake Bortles and Tim Tebow won playoff games. Yes I realize Mariota, Winston and Watson all had some good games, if never led their team to much. But in the big picture, considering where they were drafted, and what was anticipated about them, they never lived up to the expectations.
 
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Eyeballs Out

Eyeballs Out

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The Athletic article is paywalled so I didn't read it but I'd agree that too often rookie QBs play before they should (although I don't really see the pressure for rookie QBs to play coming from owners any more than it comes from media or fanbase). Also, it's obvious why that pressure is there. For one thing, any team drafting a QB in the first round almost always lacks a good QB and is probably losing too which soon draws the obvious questions "how much worse can our rookie QB be than our journeyman QB?" and "how are we going to develop our rookie QB if we don't play him?". Those questions get even more difficult to answer when the journeyman QB gets injured (not unusual).

There is another legit reason for highly drafted rookie QBs to play ASAP and that's because they are still very cheap (if you can get one that can play) but that is only the case for a window of a few years while they are on their rookie contracts. Typically, teams are signing their rookie QB to the huge extension after year 3. Lawrence just got his extension - 55m a year, 40m a year guaranteed. With the fixed fully guaranteed contracts for rookies, as a #1 overall pick he got 9m a year guaranteed for his first contract - huge difference and a huge advantage to teams that can get a young QB to get to play like even just an average starter. The sooner you can get your rookie QB ready to play the sooner you can take advantage of that discount.
 
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Alpe d'Huez

Alpe d'Huez

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They take on the Eagles. So I doubt it. But I still think they will move the ball, and I think they will win at home. But like 27-20. The Eagles are going to have to find a way to stop the outside run, get pressure on Carr with 4, maybe 5 guys, while taking away short-mid throws. It won't be easy.

I've seen over 100 games of Derek Carr, and he works best in a play action system with a decent running game, where he can let the ball rip on quick decisions. His arm is also strong enough to make any throw, anywhere, and he's fairly accurate deep. This is the system he is in now. He's at his worst when expected to move around, extend plays, make a play happen. And if nothing there, just check it down, which is somewhat of a "trap" he can get caught in, and frustrates him, visibly so. He's not Lamar Jackson. He's not even (the old) Russell Wilson in this regard, and never will be. But Saints new OC Klint Kubiak doesn't run that playbook, and is making the absolute most of his strengths.

As the season progresses I'm curious how the Saints OL holds up (weren't so good last year) and how their D does in close games. They might be fine on the latter. HC Dennis Allen is a pure defensive coach, a long-time DC. He's made it to HC because his players like him, his positive attitude. Now he doesn't have to worry about the offense, he just handed those keys to Kubiak, which also helps the Saints.
 
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Sciatic

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Alpe d'Huez said:
They take on the Eagles. So I doubt it. But I still think they will move the ball, and I think they will win at home. But like 27-20. The Eagles are going to have to find a way to stop the outside run, get pressure on Carr with 4, maybe 5 guys, while taking away short-mid throws. It won't be easy.

I've seen over 100 games of Derek Carr, and he works best in a play action system with a decent running game, where he can let the ball rip on quick decisions. His arm is also strong enough to make any throw, anywhere, and he's fairly accurate deep. This is the system he is in now. He's at his worst when expected to move around, extend plays, make a play happen. And if nothing there, just check it down, which is somewhat of a "trap" he can get caught in, and frustrates him, visibly so. He's not Lamar Jackson. He's not even (the old) Russell Wilson in this regard, and never will be. But Saints new OC Klint Kubiak doesn't run that playbook, and is making the absolute most of his strengths.

As the season progresses I'm curious how the Saints OL holds up (weren't so good last year) and how their D does in close games. They might be fine on the latter. HC Dennis Allen is a pure defensive coach, a long-time DC. He's made it to HC because his players like him, his positive attitude. Now he doesn't have to worry about the offense, he just handed those keys to Kubiak, which also helps the Saints.
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There was an article in the Seattle paper yesterday that suggested it’s a similar coaching situation for Hawks that you describe for Saints. New, defensive-minded head coach has handed the keys to the offense to his OC. But in the Hawks case it’s a rookie (to the NFL) OC. Easy to be optimistic about it at 2-0.
 
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Unchained

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Alpe d'Huez said:
They take on the Eagles. So I doubt it. But I still think they will move the ball, and I think they will win at home. But like 27-20. The Eagles are going to have to find a way to stop the outside run, get pressure on Carr with 4, maybe 5 guys, while taking away short-mid throws. It won't be easy.

I've seen over 100 games of Derek Carr, and he works best in a play action system with a decent running game, where he can let the ball rip on quick decisions. His arm is also strong enough to make any throw, anywhere, and he's fairly accurate deep. This is the system he is in now. He's at his worst when expected to move around, extend plays, make a play happen. And if nothing there, just check it down, which is somewhat of a "trap" he can get caught in, and frustrates him, visibly so. He's not Lamar Jackson. He's not even (the old) Russell Wilson in this regard, and never will be. But Saints new OC Klint Kubiak doesn't run that playbook, and is making the absolute most of his strengths.

As the season progresses I'm curious how the Saints OL holds up (weren't so good last year) and how their D does in close games. They might be fine on the latter. HC Dennis Allen is a pure defensive coach, a long-time DC. He's made it to HC because his players like him, his positive attitude. Now he doesn't have to worry about the offense, he just handed those keys to Kubiak, which also helps the Saints.
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Jets right now 6pt favorite.. Yikes!!
I am not a doctor but if you have seen over 100 Derek Carr games you almost certainly have PTSD!!
I don't know where to look up the stats if it's possible, but Eagles look like most tackles are made 5+ yards from line of scrimmage!! The ability to stop the run doesn't exist currently, don't see how defensive line has any tackles when people just blow passed!!
Teams can really have lots of clock management when you are really not wasting first few plays by running, because high probability that 3 regular, non complicated running plays equal a first down!! What a coaching nightmare for Philadelphia!! Your up front guys can't do the job, start putting in linebackers who are better at run defense.. Start linebackers cheating to fill up canyon size holes and pass defense for anything underneath is wide open!! Don't know if they have defensive linemen at Home Depot or Dicks Sporting goods but Eagles better figure it out before running teams run over them!!
New Orleans has had a few years of thinking outside typical offensive strategies.. I hope that they can do good things.. I never thought wildcat offense was effective but fun to watch!!
 
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Nomad

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Alpe d'Huez said:
I think a big problem may lie right in that statement "projected year-1 starter". Well, what do Mitch Trubisky, Zach Wilson, Josh Rosen, Tre Lance, Mac Jones, Dwayne Haskins, Sam Darnold, Deshaun Watson, Paxton Lynch, Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston, Blake Bortles, Teddy Bridgewater, Johnny Manzeil, EJ Manuel, Brandon Weeden, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder, Tim Tebow, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman, and JaMarcus Russell all have in common?

They were all drafted in the first round, and most all of them started in year one. And most of them busted, or definitely underperformed, or became a so-so QB who made it in the league, but never did much. But all were expected to pretty much revitalize their franchise, if not immediately, very quickly.*
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About two-thirds of those QBs you listed came from dual-threat backgrounds in college where they ran the RPO offense. It's difficult for dual-threat QBs to make the transition to a pro-style offense. Ask any QB coach & they'll tell you how difficult it is with a QB that's been exposed only to RPO since HS & college. Currently in the league there are only 3 QBs that are successful starters that were top dual-threat QBs in college - Jackson, Hurts & Prescott.

The "projected year-1 starter" comes from the rankings of the NFL draft prospect data base, which is like the "Bible" for ranking draft prospects. I'm not saying it's the Word of God because these so called "expert scouts" that compile the data & assign a ranking number get it wrong more often than not (image that. Lol).

And it's not just at the top end where they get it wrong, but at the bottom end of the prospects as well. For example, Purdy was given prospect score of only 5.57 which translates to "Priority Undrafted Free Agent" How did they blow this one? Lol


Getting back to Young, I'm trying to figure out why he's struggled so bad & unfortunately looks like a potential draft bust now while his counterpart Stroud has adjusted very well to the pro-level exceeding expectations with a bright future. As I said both come from pro-style offenses in college. Both played in FBS Power-5. Both were winners in college. And the number one attribute of both in college was impressive accuracy (in fact, Young broke most of Tua's passing records at Bama). The one big difference of course is their size - Stroud a big guy at 6-3, 220 & Young smaller at 5-10, 204 (not many 5-10 QBs have made it big in the NFL let alone even made it in the NFL). I wonder if Young went to Houston & Stroud to Carolina, if things would be any different?
 
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Nomad

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Eyeballs Out said:
The Athletic article is paywalled so I didn't read it but I'd agree that too often rookie QBs play before they should (although I don't really see the pressure for rookie QBs to play coming from owners any more than it comes from media or fanbase). Also, it's obvious why that pressure is there. For one thing, any team drafting a QB in the first round almost always lacks a good QB and is probably losing too which soon draws the obvious questions "how much worse can our rookie QB be than our journeyman QB?" and "how are we going to develop our rookie QB if we don't play him?". Those questions get even more difficult to answer when the journeyman QB gets injured (not unusual).
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Playing 1st rd drafted QBs in their rookie season is nothing new - it's been going on for decades. In the 1960s, there was Broadway Joe & Bob Griese that started for most of their rookie season. In the 70s, came Bradshaw & Plunkett (Plunkett was terrible in his first 5 seasons with NE - no winning seasons/no playoffs! Lol). Then came that iconic class of 1983; Elway, Kelly, Marino, O'Brien, Eason- all starters at some point in their rookie season. And in the following decades came Aikman, McNabb, The Mannings, Newton, Luck, S.Young, Big Ben, etc

You're right - a team taking a QB in the 1st rd is lacking at that position & obviously not winning. Many owners have the belief their team is "just one QB away" from SB stardom. And many owners want to start the rebuilding the process right away by playing their franchise QB in their rookie season.
 
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