Nibali next year programe giro or tour?

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Nibali usually places 10-15th in ITT's, and somewhere between 3rd and 7/8/9th in climbs. His consistency and downhilling skills are his weapons. Not enough to podium in the Tour. He'll be outclimbed too much and doesn't have the 'super' ITT needed to gain back time.

 

[rzombie1988]

Nibz can't beat AC, so he should stay away from the Tour unless AC is banned. Not that I particularlary think Basso can beat AC either, but this is about Nibz.

Without AC, I wouldn't pick Nibz to win it, but maybe he could podium on a good tour. I think Cadel is better than him and I think he might be able to get some time on the Schlecks if there was a decent ITT. He's probably going to have to deal with Menchov though, who one would think should have a better year next year.

 

[Greenflame]

Nibali winning the Tour is extremely unlikely: Contador is superior at both climbing and TT'ing. And even if Contador wouldn't compete, there's so many GC riders who climb much better than Nibali: Schlecks, Evans, Sanchez, Basso, Menchov, probably (though I hate to admit it) Gesink and VDB. With enough TT kilometers and perhaps some downhill finishes he could probably beat a few of those, but it will be very hard for Nibali to win the Tour. He might have a shot at the podium, but he will have a hard time against the other contenders and will need quite a bit of luck.

In the Giro however, Nibali could be one of the strongest. Scarponi he can probably handle if the route is easier than this year. Other than that, it will highly depend on which other riders go for the Giro. He definitely has a big chance of winning the Giro though.

If I'd be the boss of Liquigas, I'd let Nibali lead at the Giro again while Basso takes on the Tour. As said by others though, the parcours and other variables will need to be taken into account before making a decision.

 

[movingtarget]

Consistency is usually Nibali's strength even though the Vuelta performance was mediocre. He can do much better than that but I still think the Giro is the better race for him.

 

[cineteq]

Nibz can't beat AC, so he should stay away from the Tour unless AC is banned.

So if we follow your logic, pretty much every GC rider should no go to the Tour because they have no chance against Contador.

 

[El Pistolero]

So if we follow your logic, pretty much every GC rider should no go to the Tour because they have no chance against Contador.

Some people with a lot of luck can. Nibali can't. Ever.

 

[maxmartin]

Nibali can't have luck????

Some people with a lot of luck can. Nibali can't. Ever.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Nibali used up all his luck in the Vuelta '10

for his entire career

[x] in before theyoungest makes a remark about me hating nibali
[x] in before someone else than the youngest does above mentioned

 

[movingtarget]

Some people with a lot of luck can. Nibali can't. Ever.

You mean luck, determination, skill and perseverance. To say Contador can only be beaten by bad luck is ridiculous. Contador also has luck in his races sometimes and it's part of sport and life. No one can convince me that Evans won the TDF purely through luck.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Nibali used up all his luck in the Vuelta '10

for his entire career

[x] in before theyoungest makes a remark about me hating nibali
[x] in before someone else than the youngest does above mentioned

Nibali Hater!

Anyway, saying that he used all his luck up in Vuelta '10 is absolute mexican logic.

 

[rzombie1988]

So if we follow your logic, pretty much every GC rider should no go to the Tour because they have no chance against Contador.

Well, no one is beating a 100% Contador. Personally, if it was me, I wouldn't. Who can be a 100% Contador? Also, Nibali got embarassed in the Giro. Contador made everybody look second rate, especially Nibali.

 

[rzombie1988]

You mean luck, determination, skill and perseverance. To say Contador can only be beaten by bad luck is ridiculous. Contador also has luck in his races sometimes and it's part of sport and life. No one can convince me that Evans won the TDF purely through luck.

Evans had luck with the bs time penalties for alot of the favorites, tons of people getting eliminated due to injuries and Contador being wiped out from the Giro. Evans did his part, but if he performed the same and one or two of those things above didn't happen, he wouldn't win it.

 

[maxmartin]

he is 7 already 2 years ago, if he goes to tour on form i think he is a strong podium contender, although winner might be out of his reach

If Nibali doesn't make a jup in his climbing ability he shouldn't go to the Tour at cost of the Giro/Vuelta to compete.
Basso I believe isn't finished yet, and on a good day he can defend himself in long TTs as well. Nibali can't to more than defending himself in long TTs either. Also, and this is the real poblem, he can't attack the big ones on the climbs.
I really like Nibali, he's a very consistend and smart rider. A survivor really. But that's also how he got his podiums indeed. He survived better than his opponents, and he has always been outclimbed.
The best he can achieve in the Tour right now is Top 10 with a shot at low Top 5. If they put more long TTs in the Tour that would probably even be a disadvantage to him, as he's OK but not even close to Evans, Contador, Wiggins, Froome (if he continues his alien-life-form existence), Menchov...

 

[maxmartin]

Funny people keep mentioning Gesink and VDB, and in reality Nibali beat those two almost every time they meet in the same grand tour

Nibali winning the Tour is extremely unlikely: Contador is superior at both climbing and TT'ing. And even if Contador wouldn't compete, there's so many GC riders who climb much better than Nibali: Schlecks, Evans, Sanchez, Basso, Menchov, probably (though I hate to admit it) Gesink and VDB. With enough TT kilometers and perhaps some downhill finishes he could probably beat a few of those, but it will be very hard for Nibali to win the Tour. He might have a shot at the podium, but he will have a hard time against the other contenders and will need quite a bit of luck.

In the Giro however, Nibali could be one of the strongest. Scarponi he can probably handle if the route is easier than this year. Other than that, it will highly depend on which other riders go for the Giro. He definitely has a big chance of winning the Giro though.

If I'd be the boss of Liquigas, I'd let Nibali lead at the Giro again while Basso takes on the Tour. As said by others though, the parcours and other variables will need to be taken into account before making a decision.

 

[El Pistolero]

Funny people keep mentioning Gesink and VDB, and in reality Nibali beat those two almost every time in the grand tour

The story behind statistics is more interesting.

In 2009 VDB2 lost 6 minutes because of a crash in the TTT and went into a lot of breakaways. In fact, I was more impressed by VDB2 than with Nibali.

And this year they met again. Nibali barely finished in front of VDB2 despite the latter returning from serious injuries.

I definitely rate a top VDB2 over Nibali if they were to battle it out for GC.

 

[greenedge]

Maybe having an in form Contador would have spurred Andy on to make time gains??? over others. When he could/ should have.

In the TDF Evans could descend with Nibali. And then still beat him up the climbs and on the ITT's.

However Nibali should try the TDF sometime soon. The Giro route he could probably win if it's easy enough. Scarponi also goes into the red often.

 

[cineteq]

I definitely rate a top VDB2 over Nibali if they were to battle it out for GC.

Ok I get it now I understand why your views of a rider like Nibali, Evans, etc are so skewed. You don't watch, you listen to bike racing on the radio. LOL

 

[El Imbatido]

Looks like Basso wants to do the Giro next year....so i guess that means pencil in Nibali for a Tour start

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/basso-looks-ahead-to-giro-in-denmark

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Funny people keep mentioning Gesink and VDB, and in reality Nibali beat those two almost every time they meet in the same grand tour

Funny because Gesink only met Nibali once in a GT, and Gesink dropped out after 5 stages. Greatcomparison dude.

However, if you do want to compare, Gesink beat Nibali in almost every other stage-race where they met eachother...

score is 5-2 in gc classifications. Nibali on beat him in the Tirreno 2008 (by 1 place, because Gesink had a mechanical which cost him 1'30 on Montelupone, otherwise he would have finished top 5), and the Tour of California 2008...
They rarely met eachother outside of that, couple of Dauphine's and Tirreno 2010/2011, where Gesink beat Nibali every time.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Nibali
1st in Vuelta a Espana
2x 3rd Giro d'Italia

Gesink
6th Vuelta a Espana
6th Tour de France

I think it is pretty simple.

Nibali >>>>>Gesink

 

[Havetts]

Nibali
1st in Vuelta a Espana
2x 3rd Giro d'Italia

Gesink
6th Vuelta a Espana
6th Tour de France

I think it is pretty simple.

Nibali >>>>>Gesink

Not going to bother with a response to such bait .

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Just respond to a bait post with another bait post.
Something like

Menchov 3 GT
Evans 1 GT

Menchov >>> Evans

 

[auscyclefan94]

Ultimately, NIbali is simply better and inside that little head of yours, you know he will always will be. I know it will be hard to accept for you but you'll get there. Gesink will always find a way to lose.

 

[mc_mountain]

Looks like Basso wants to do the Giro next year....so i guess that means pencil in Nibali for a Tour start

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/basso-looks-ahead-to-giro-in-denmark

from the article

It also comes down to what the other riders could imagine

does this mean he now feels Nibali and perhaps even Sagan are higher up the pecking order?

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Ultimately, NIbali is simply better and inside that little head of yours, you know he will always will be. I know it will be hard to accept for you but you'll get there. Gesink will always find a way to lose.

Even the biggest Nibali fan doesnt believe that