No doping controls??

[Fus087]

Well, I decided to do some more research on JTL and it would seem that he raced a lot outside the UK last year therefore making a mockery of the idea that he wasnt noticed because UK racing doesnt suit him, I guess racing in other countries didnt really suit him either. Looking through his programme, he raced in South Africa, South Korea, Mallorca and a number of French races including Tour of Normandy, Circuit de Lorraine, Boucles de l'Mayene & Ronde l'Oise. In fact he won one race in the UK which was Ryedale GP.

I also noted that his victory in Leon was partly due to the fact he wasnt riding in the lead as his team were defending the race lead at the time. According to the man himself, he was fresher than everyone else because he wasnt working. Rapha-Condor website.

Also his postion at the Tour of Britain was more down to his perfromance in the TT than through the hills. Ironic considering he sucked in most of the TTs he had done previously against lesser opposition.

Yes, it truly is amazing what you learn when you do a little background research. Which again leads us back to the original point in that I see nothing in his previous performances to suggest anywhere neat the level of racing he achieved over the last few weeks.

You conveniently leave out the fact that he was at the pointy end of most of these races. 8th in South Africa (and 2nd in the KOM competition), 4th in Korea, 2nd in León (and, as said before, winning a stage against Goos), and of course the 6th place in Britain.
And in 2010 he won a stage of the Rás, finishing on Seskin Hill.

Of course Wetterhall, Impey, Mizbani and Moyano are a different caliber than the riders he's up against now, but the fact remains that he's done quite OK in the last years. Nowhere near the achievements that he reached in the last two weeks, but he's shown his talent before.
If you say now that these results of his still mean he's a nobody in the big picture, I won't speak against that. But you don't finish in the top-10 of four different stage races if you're not good.

 

[roundabout]

I am not sure what I can surmise from a victory against a rider 5 years younger and a bunch of amateurs

Or winning from a break in Ireland.

What I can see is that he has gone from being top-10 material in 2.2 races to seemingly dominating 2.1

 

[hatcher]

Well, I decided to do some more research on JTL and it would seem that he raced a lot outside the UK last year therefore making a mockery of the idea that he wasnt noticed because UK racing doesnt suit him, I guess racing in other countries didnt really suit him either. Looking through his programme, he raced in South Africa, South Korea, Mallorca and a number of French races including Tour of Normandy, Circuit de Lorraine, Boucles de l'Mayene & Ronde l'Oise. In fact he won one race in the UK which was Ryedale GP.

I also noted that his victory in Leon was partly due to the fact he wasnt riding in the lead as his team were defending the race lead at the time. According to the man himself, he was fresher than everyone else because he wasnt working. Rapha-Condor website.

Also his postion at the Tour of Britain was more down to his perfromance in the TT than through the hills. Ironic considering he sucked in most of the TTs he had done previously against lesser opposition.

Yes, it truly is amazing what you learn when you do a little background research. Which again leads us back to the original point in that I see nothing in his previous performances to suggest anywhere neat the level of racing he achieved over the last few weeks.

You're not skeptical at all. You've had your mind made up from the beginning.

Your post and your conclusion don't even come close to matching.

Firstly, nobody is saying he wasn't noticed, in fact I'm saying the exact opposite. He was noticed.

Secondly, you're going to look at a list of placings in races you didn't see and draw conclusions from them? Really? A cycling fan should know better.

Tour of South Africa, where he finished 8th overall, is entirely flat.
The Tour of Korea, where he finished 4th overall, is all but flat.
His win at Ryedale was won on a climb.
I'm not sure what you mean about the Tour of Britain time trial. His overall placing was due to being part of the 20ish man group that stayed away on one stage. Regardless, it was his performances on the hills that impressed everyone, not his top 5 or whatever it was overall placing. Good climbers like Steve Cummings could not stay with him.

 

[hatcher]

I am not sure what I can surmise from a victory against a rider 5 years younger and a bunch of amateurs

Or winning from a break in Ireland.

What I can see is that he has gone from being top-10 material in 2.2 races to seemingly dominating 2.1

Not much, but you can surmise something from seeing Cummings, Boom, Gerdemann among others unsuccessfully try to stay with him on the hills in the Tour of Britain. Those are 3 riders of 2.1 quality.

 

[roundabout]

Tour of South Africa is flatter but it had an uphill finish where Locke didn't feature.

 

[Fus087]

Tour of South Africa, where he finished 8th overall, is entirely flat.

That's not quite true.
Some stages were rather flat - stage 1 (which Kristian House won solo), the cancelled stage 2 (although it had a climb on the finishing circuit), stage 5 and the criterium-like stage 7 definitely.
But stage 3 had a serious climb on the last 5-8 km, and was decided by a very strong sidewind that made Europcar ride the peloton apart in echelons.
Stage 4 had several climbs in the first half, a 20% climb about 20 km from the line and a rolling final.
Stage 6 climbed the Franschhoek pass and Hellshoogte pass, then going down into Stellenbosch and finishing at the top of Hellshoogte after climbing the old pass road.

So anything but "entirely flat".

 

[pmcg76]

You conveniently leave out the fact that he was at the pointy end of most of these races. 8th in South Africa (and 2nd in the KOM competition), 4th in Korea, 2nd in León (and, as said before, winning a stage against Goos), and of course the 6th place in Britain.
And in 2010 he won a stage of the Rás, finishing on Seskin Hill.

Of course Wetterhall, Impey, Mizbani and Moyano are a different caliber than the riders he's up against now, but the fact remains that he's done quite OK in the last years. Nowhere near the achievements that he reached in the last two weeks, but he's shown his talent before.
If you say now that these results of his still mean he's a nobody in the big picture, I won't speak against that. But you don't finish in the top-10 of four different stage races if you're not good.

Well that's it though, the fields in South Africa and Korea were incredibly weak and the only other Pro teams at Leon were Rabobank Continental and fellow Brit team Motorpoint. As I said JTL benefited there because he could sit on in the break as Dan Craven was race leader by two minutes. Using your criteria, every rider who every makes it as a pro is good because you can bet they have to had results somewhere to get a pro contract.

There was 6-7 ProTour teams in Haut Var as well as a number of better Pro-continental team. How does a rider go from finishing Top 10 in weak races to absolutely dominating races of a much higher calibre. Look at previous winners of Haut Var and Tour of Med, there arent too many lesser winners on the list.

JTL didnt just win these races either, he dominated completely. If it had been Romain Hardy hanging on today, I could believe that but putting 20 seconds into good pros in the space of a 1km climb is seriously impressive, regardless of what time of the season.

I am not one of those people who believes everyone dopes or that every guy who wins a race is doped. I have my stages of skeptism which involve the "raised eyebrows" stage when I see a surprising performance that is just about believable, think Froome up to a certain point in the Vuelta last year or Amstrong until the Sestriere stage of the 99 Tour and then the next level is the "you are ****ing kidding me" stage. That is when something seems so unbelievable that I find it hard to accept as real. Again, think Froome sprinting up Pena de Caberga or Armstrong taking of on Sestriere. Unfortunately JTL's perfromances fall into this latter category for me as it represents such a huge improvement.

As I said, I would love it if he was clean but I have my doubts which is of course sad but giving the nature of pro cycling, fully warranted IMO.

 

[hatcher]

Tour of South Africa is flatter but it had an uphill finish where Locke didn't feature.

That's not quite true.
Some stages were rather flat - stage 1 (which Kristian House won solo), the cancelled stage 2 (although it had a climb on the finishing circuit), stage 5 and the criterium-like stage 7 definitely.
But stage 3 had a serious climb on the last 5-8 km, and was decided by a very strong sidewind that made Europcar ride the peloton apart in echelons.
Stage 4 had several climbs in the first half, a 20% climb about 20 km from the line and a rolling final.
Stage 6 climbed the Franschhoek pass and Hellshoogte pass, then going down into Stellenbosch and finishing at the top of Hellshoogte after climbing the old pass road.

So anything but "entirely flat".

Fair enough. The better point to make would be House was leading from stage 1.

 

[roundabout]

Not much, but you can surmise something from seeing Cummings, Boom, Gerdemann among others unsuccessfully try to stay with him on the hills in the Tour of Britain. Those are 3 riders of 2.1 quality.

Yeah, he packs a good punch on the hills. I am not sure why he didn't really show it before Britain or why he is seemingly up another level this year.

It's not unreasonable to be skeptical.

 

[pmcg76]

You're not skeptical at all. You've had your mind made up from the beginning.

Your post and your conclusion don't even come close to matching.

Firstly, nobody is saying he wasn't noticed, in fact I'm saying the exact opposite. He was noticed.

Secondly, you're going to look at a list of placings in races you didn't see and draw conclusions from them? Really? A cycling fan should know better.

Tour of South Africa, where he finished 8th overall, is entirely flat.
The Tour of Korea, where he finished 4th overall, is all but flat.
His win at Ryedale was won on a climb.
I'm not sure what you mean about the Tour of Britain time trial. His overall placing was due to being part of the 20ish man group that stayed away on one stage. Regardless, it was his performances on the hills that impressed everyone, not his top 5 or whatever it was overall placing. Good climbers like Steve Cummings could not stay with him.

I like your little jibe that you shouldnt judge a rider by his results

His win at Ryedale was in a sprint finish from a group of five riders, it wasnt an uphill finish like today. As for the Tour of Britain, yes a group of 20, got that 20 including some other lower British based riders who are not suddenly tearing the legs of the top pro riders.

Yes he rode well in Britain but please dont confuse riding well in one race as definitive proof of amazing climbing ability as I dont think most European riders are bothered by the KOM in the Tour of Britain. In fact I can think back to the Nissan Classic and an Irish amateur Paul Slane, taking on the pros in the KOM competition, he never even made it to pro level.

Russell Downing won the Tour of Ireland and rode brillantly on the stages over St.Patricks Hill, he done well when he moved up a level with SKY but he didnt suddenly go over and start making them look like 2nd rate riders.

 

[hrotha]

You can argue Tiernan-Locke's performance isn't completely unbelievablel, but to claim this isn't a humungous leap in his results and that he doesn't come practically out of nowhere (for someone who's still an elite athlete, mind) is just silly.

http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/rider_palm.asp?riderid=1501&year=0&all=1&current=0
Perfectly normal!

 

[Dr. Maserati]

You can argue Tiernan-Locke's performance isn't completely unbelievablel, but to claim this isn't a humungous leap in his results and that he doesn't come practically out of nowhere (for someone who's still an elite athlete, mind) is just silly.

http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/rider_palm.asp?riderid=1501&year=0&all=1&current=0
Perfectly normal!

Surely this is the point?
I don't think it is a "humungous" jump - he has had some decent results and now has done exceedingly well in Med & TdHV with very few big names and none on form yet.
I think if JTL meets Gilbert in a few months time there could be a very different result.

 

[pmcg76]

Surely this is the point?
I don't think it is a "humungous" jump - he has had some decent results and now has done exceedingly well in Med & TdHV with very few big names and none on form yet.
I think if JTL meets Gilbert in a few months time there could be a very different result.

I think its very much in the "humongous" jump category. If it had been Jelle Wallays who had put out these recent perfromances, you cant tell me you wouldnt have found it unbelievable. But because its some rider that people in the UK are aware of and feel they know better, they are much more defensive.

People are also misrepresenting other riders by saying that they are not in top shape right now, quite correctly but there are also plenty of medium level French riders who probably had these races as their primary targets and they werent stomping on anybody.

 

[Dr. Maserati]

I think its very much in the "humongous" jump category. If it had been Jelle Wallays who had put out these recent perfromances, you cant tell me you wouldnt have found it unbelievable. But because its some rider that people in the UK are aware of and feel they know better, they are much more defensive.

I can indeed tell you that.

However as you made some lame attempt that my opinion is based on nationality or knowing the guy (I knew very little until Med) is defending him then I don't expect you to believe it, nor do I care what you think.

People are also misrepresenting other riders by saying that they are not in top shape right now, quite correctly but there are also plenty of medium level French riders who probably had these races as their primary targets and they werent stomping on anybody.

Thats pretty much where I would put JTL performance.

This is the Tour de Haut Var, nothing more.

 

[pmcg76]

I was on Patricks Hill for that race. I wouldnt say he exactly rode brilliantly that day as 3 quarters of the peloton pulled out of the race as soon as the race entered Cork and the organisers even knocked off 1 lap of the circuit coz the conditions were horrendous that day so the field was severely depleted at the end.

I was on St.Patricks hill too and even though a lot of guys had abandoned(how I laughed when Armstrong never made it up once, 2 days chopped of a race to pay for him and he doesnt even finish), he was up against the full might of Team Columbia that day. I thought he done really well to go up against a PT team and hold them off. He also done quite well the year before but lost out.

My point was more that Downing showed he could compete with the top guys but he didnt go on and start beating them easily.

 

[pmcg76]

I can indeed tell you that.

However as you made some lame attempt that my opinion is based on nationality or knowing the guy (I knew very little until Med) is defending him then I don't expect you to believe it, nor do I care what you think.


Thats pretty much where I would put JTL performance.

This is the Tour de Haut Var, nothing more.

These races might not be that important but perhaps you can enlighten me as to the last time a largely unknown rider dominated them.

 

[User Guide]

Yeah, he packs a good punch on the hills. I am not sure why he didn't really show it before Britain or why he is seemingly up another level this year.

It's not unreasonable to be skeptical.

He was coming back from 3+ years off the bike due too illness (mono) 1st year back not so good 2nd year better(kom britain etc) 3rd year is this one, seems like a natural progression and not an out of the blue.Trust me im as skeptical as the next man but lemme enjoy this one, a good news story fk knows cycling needs one or two.

Ps connecting the dots as we all like to do with ds's managers etc wasnt Brian Smith calling for life bans the other week on eurosport?

 

[Dr. Maserati]

These races might not be that important but perhaps you can enlighten me as to the last time a largely unknown rider dominated them.

Ok, so he is a doper because you hadn't heard of him or because he is not a big name. Got it.

BTW - Romain Hardy unexpectedly won yesterdays stage, didn't hear your thoughts on him.

 

[hrotha]

Ok, so he is a doper because you hadn't heard of him or because he is not a big name. Got it.

BTW - Romain Hardy unexpectedly won yesterdays stage, didn't hear your thoughts on him.

Seriously? You're comparing a promising 23-year-old with some actually decent results winning one stage with a 27-year-old with almost no results to speak of dominating Mediterranean and Haut Var? I know you love playing devil's advocate but this is ridiculous.

 

[pmcg76]

Ok, so he is a doper because you hadn't heard of him or because he is not a big name. Got it.

BTW - Romain Hardy unexpectedly won yesterdays stage, didn't hear your thoughts on him.

Makes as much logic as trying to claim that a guy whose only result of note is 5th at Tour of Britain and has suddenly morphed into a big time rider is totally normal and not in the least suspicious.

Lol, a young French rider with a string of decent results and in good form winning in a 2 man break that should have been caught is hardly noteworthy. As shown today he rode his heart out but wasnt good enough. Are you really trying to compare a breakaway win with a guy totally dominating two races for fun.

I didnt see yesterdays stage but judging by the stage thread, JTL was again the strongest rider as well and probably would have caught the break except the other teams sat on him.

Ah well, hrotha beat me to it.

 

[Dr. Maserati]

Seriously? You're comparing a promising 23-year-old with some actually decent results winning one stage with a 27-year-old with almost no results to speak of dominating Mediterranean and Haut Var? I know you love playing devil's advocate but this is ridiculous.

I am not comparing them that way - that someone elses ridiculous point,that if the name is not recognized it means something.

Quite simply - these are 2 early season events and JTL has stepped up a level, it is not "humungous" jump.

 

[pmcg76]

We cant be jumping to conclusions when a rider unexpectedly wins a race or if a rider performs above expectations. Just look at San Luis recently when Daniel Diaz was competing with Contador and Leipheimer on the climbs. We should be praising his performance just like JTL and only question them if an allegation arises out of nowhere or if they fail a test. We cant be sceptical about everything.

You mean like when Bjarne Riis went from nowhere to winning the Tour and when Lance started winning Tours for fun. I am far from being a complete cynic but there are times when I just have to say the obvious and I explained my reasoning a few pages back. Its a sad but involuntary trait when you follow cycling and end up being disappointed so often.

 

[pmcg76]

I am not comparing them that way - that someone elses ridiculous point,that if the name is not recognized it means something.

Quite simply - these are 2 early season events and JTL has stepped up a level, it is not "humungous" jump.

No, a rider stepping up a level from continental pro would be doing well in races like this, like Romain Hardy if you want, say top 10 or winning a stage. Dominating these races is more than stepping up a level, its stepping up a lot of levels, i.e its a big ****ing jump.

You claim these races are weak and I asked you to show me a weak winner and you cannot provide one i.e. these races are more important and prestigious than you want to admit especially to the mid level French guys like Le Mevel, Fedrigo, El Fares, Pauriol etc. Then you try to claim the JTL was on the same level as these guys anyway when that is quite clearly not the case so who is making the ridiculous point here.

 

[Dr. Maserati]

No, a rider stepping up a level from continental pro would be doing well in races like this, like Romain Hardy if you want, say top 10 or winning a stage. Dominating these races is more than stepping up a level, its stepping up a lot of levels, i.e its a big ****ing jump.

What are you so angry about?

Seriously, get some perspective - and he certainly did not dominate today.
It was a 1 km climb to the finish.

You claim these races are weak and I asked you to show me a weak winner and you cannot provide one i.e. these races are more important and prestigious than you want to admit especially to the mid level French guys like Le Mevel, Fedrigo, El Fares, Pauriol etc. Then you try to claim the JTL was on the same level as these guys anyway when that is quite clearly not the case so who is making the ridiculous point here.

I never said the races were weak - however they are early season events, not too long and not much climbing.

If these races were so prestigious why are the big names not there?
Of course these races are important to the French - but I certainly dont think either event is as big a step up as some make it.

 

[pmcg76]

Did you not see what i just said?

I said only question someone when there is some allegation of sort against them. Like there was always something against Armstrong as early as his first Tour when he tested positive for corticoids and there was immediate suspicion on him even though he showed the UCI a medical prescription for saddle soreness.

Look at Bradley Wiggins, should we question him coz he finished 4th in a Tour out of nowhere. I dont for a minute think Bradley is a cheat as he has been outspoken on doping and he was one of the few to criticise Contador of some sort for his offence.

But dont just accuse someone of doping coz they win a race unexpectedly. For crying out loud JTL won the the Tour du Haut Var, not a mountain top finish where he dropped climbing specialists in a Grand Tour. If he done that then i could understand your scepticism but for Haut Var, no way.

No, the suspicions around Armstrong were more around his performance than the fact that he had cortisone in his system. He didnt actually test postive anyway and it only really became an issue when LA Confidentail was released and we got the full story on the cortisone positive.

Everyone keeps saying it's just the Haut-Var but its more than that, its the Haut Var and Tour of Med and the fact that these are relatively prestigous races. Look at the list of previous winners, try and find a weak winner and then explain why their is none.

A guy going from continetal pro with few results to dominating such races is almost as big a jump as a mid-rank ProTour rider turning into a GT contender a la Chris Froome. Can you really visualise Ronan McLaughlin or Mark Cassidy suddenly dominating these races?