Re: Re:
Singer01 said:
python said:
well, well well.....
it was a classic in soft conditions - the 2 things where sundby is normally superior to ustiugov (and almost every one). yet, ustiougov just won in a rather convincing manner leaving sundby in 2nd.
the russian is obviously in some fantastic form and he has a few skating events coming up, his own preferred style.
martin must worry when he cant win a classic event.
looking at their times last year MJS put only 47 seconds into him on the final climb. however not sure he couldn't have pulled a bit more out if necessary, maybe this year will be worth watching up until the end.
that's correct. i'd think a 50 seconds difference between them on the alp cermis
last year is a fair assumptions. i'd also agree sundby could have gained another handful of seconds since he had no competitive reason to go all out on the very top knowing already he was the winner.
but this year, the final climb might yield some narrow gaps btwn the 2. i reckon sundby still holds a natural uphill advantage since
he's about 8 kg lighter. say, if the climb took place tomorrow, based on their relative performance to-date, the difference would likely shrink from 50 seconds to 30 seconds.that's what ustiougov probably had in mind when he claimed he can win the tour. iow, if he manages to get about 1 minute advantage before the final climb, his chance of the overall is good.
but getting the 60 seconds on sundby given what we know of his
past performances in the tds is a tall ask.
in ustiougov's favour is the following:
-there are no long classic mass starts left where sundby accumulated huge advantage in the past by collecting all intermediate bonuses.
-the coming up events in oberstdorf (the 20km skiathlon and a 15 km skate pursuit) will likely be held at colder conditions (the warmest forecast is -1C). meaning, there will likely be no disadvantage to sagging of a heavier, powerful style. compare it to the last stage of the tour of canada last year to appreciate the point. plus, of the 35 race kilometers in oberstdorf, 25 will be skating where ustiougov excels.
my hunch is that sundby and ustiougov will still be under a minute apart (either way) before the 6 january 10 km skate in toblach.
either of them can have a bad day and all these projections can be reduced to a fancy. still, i see some rationale for ustiugov being so confident, which is not characteristic of his public persona.