Nordic Skiing/Biathlon Thread

[Kokoso]

Re:

...encouraging that ustiogov did not give up the front right away after the 2nd intermediate...in such a soft conditions an 83 kg skier works much harder than a 75 kg-er like krogh, legkov or sundby

I'd say 75 kg's is way too much for Krogh, more like 65 or likely even less for him, like 60, he looks lightly built and not very muscular too.

 

[python]

the relays will start soon..no canada nor the us teams... i hear they have too many sick. but norway and russia will have 2 teams...i think norway 1 and russia 1 will be the key battle. interestingly, sundby will take on legkov in the 2nd leg...alex is usually held for his 3d leg skate, but the 3 d will be contested by the promising chervotkin and gloeersen. the 4th (ustiuogov vs. krogh) is going to be interesting if they are within 5-10 seconds at the start. if krogh gets 20-30 seconds i dont think serhey can challange him today. perhaps on a different harder course, but not in this icy sand...finland and france also have good teams for a podium. oops, france also will field a 2nd team.

norway 2 will be anchored by stadaas - a new name to me. the czechs could stick with the leaders all the way to the 3d leg. not much to say about the swedish team w/o calle, hellner, olsson and richardsson. i am surprised olsson isn not starting as we saw him yesterday doing well...

could this be the 1st time norway will lose a relay ? probably not.

 

[kingjr]

Ustiugov's no Northug, that much is clear.

 

[portugal11]

Yeah, fourcade should retire from biathlon next year after olympics. He has zero competition

 

[Cance > TheRest]

Re: Re:

It's tougher than Antholz, but compared to Pokljuka and Ruhpolding which are notoriously difficult trails it's usually a cake-walk in NMNM in terms of altitude gain and loss and technical challenges, especially on the shortest loop (the 2k which the women will take on today). It looks like they've reprofiled it slightly since the 2013 Worlds though, and snow conditions certainly affect matters for obvious reasons. I think the race program also helps, what with this year having no relay (using the shorter, less selective loops) or Individual (which due to the 1' penalties for a miss has put the onus back on shooting) which they've had here in previous years. Also those two courses mentioned above suffer from having very high shooting percentages because while the trails are very tough, the run-in to the range is comparatively easy, as opposed to, say, Kontiolahti or Khanty-Mansiysk where the trails are selective but not quite as tough, however there's a serious climb into the stadium area so the recovery for shooting is harder.

I was not arguing which venue is tougher than others that much; more like your initional claim that Dahlmeier, Kaisa and Koukalova (fastest skiers) had problem to gain time on slower skiers when it was clearly the other way round and they've gained unusual amount of time.

Judging from reactions of some including Svendsen it looks that Nove Mesto course is one of the toughest out there which is quite the opposite of what you claim (or claimed previously) - that it's one of the easiest courses out there. You've too begun to change your opinion since back then.

I checked the time distance from the fastest to the median skier in the three sprint races:

Women:
Nove Mesto +1:25.3
Pokljuka +1:27.5
Östersund +1:42.2

Men:
Nove Mesto 1:26.1
Pokljuka +1:10.8
Östersund +1:13.5

Ofcourse the field is different from competition to competition, but based on these numbers alone I would tend to agree with you that Nove Mesto certainly can certainly creat ski gaps. That said, I don't find the NM tracks as exciting compared to Pokljuka or the amazing Presque Isle tracks.

 

[BullsFan22]

Re:

Ustiugov's no Northug, that much is clear.

You are right. He is Sergey Ustiugov.

 

[Erwin]

Re: Re:

It's tougher than Antholz, but compared to Pokljuka and Ruhpolding which are notoriously difficult trails it's usually a cake-walk in NMNM in terms of altitude gain and loss and technical challenges, especially on the shortest loop (the 2k which the women will take on today). It looks like they've reprofiled it slightly since the 2013 Worlds though, and snow conditions certainly affect matters for obvious reasons. I think the race program also helps, what with this year having no relay (using the shorter, less selective loops) or Individual (which due to the 1' penalties for a miss has put the onus back on shooting) which they've had here in previous years. Also those two courses mentioned above suffer from having very high shooting percentages because while the trails are very tough, the run-in to the range is comparatively easy, as opposed to, say, Kontiolahti or Khanty-Mansiysk where the trails are selective but not quite as tough, however there's a serious climb into the stadium area so the recovery for shooting is harder.

I was not arguing which venue is tougher than others that much; more like your initional claim that Dahlmeier, Kaisa and Koukalova (fastest skiers) had problem to gain time on slower skiers when it was clearly the other way round and they've gained unusual amount of time.

Judging from reactions of some including Svendsen it looks that Nove Mesto course is one of the toughest out there which is quite the opposite of what you claim (or claimed previously) - that it's one of the easiest courses out there. You've too begun to change your opinion since back then.

I checked the time distance from the fastest to the median skier in the three sprint races:

Women:
Nove Mesto +1:25.3
Pokljuka +1:27.5
Östersund +1:42.2

Men:
Nove Mesto 1:26.1
Pokljuka +1:10.8
Östersund +1:13.5

Ofcourse the field is different from competition to competition, but based on these numbers alone I would tend to agree with you that Nove Mesto certainly can certainly creat ski gaps. That said, I don't find the NM tracks as exciting compared to Pokljuka or the amazing Presque Isle tracks.

You have to take into account that the tracks usually are in much worse shape in Nove Mesto compared to e.g. Östersund and Pokljuka. I believe the course itself is easier in Nove Mesto, but the conditions (soft and deep snow, warm weather, icy tracks) make it relatively hard and more difficult for servicemen and that leads to bigger gaps. The tracks themselves aren't really that hard, Sundby double poled them last year.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

That's a great point actually, the reputation for easy trails came when the events at NMNM were much later in the season, in colder and more stable conditions so the snow wouldn't be as soft whereas hosting in December before there's really been a huge amount of snowfall and not having the option available to bring more natural snow from higher up like Le Grand Bornand or Hochfilzen have will certainly affect the type of snow and ice on the trails this year compared to previous visits since the reprofiling.

While I'm not a big fan of the trails here, I think the atmosphere more than justifies an annual visit. Especially if Russian rounds are going to be taken off the calendar - while I like both Pokljuka and Kontiolahti (the former more, but with Kontiolahti you can't argue with the run-in to the range with the wall, as while the course isn't Ruhpolding-hard, having an effort such as that with so little respite before the shooting is a really decisive factor) they are much smaller venues in countries with a much less central role in the sport at present. Both have their plus points - the altitude of Pokljuka makes it easier to guarantee snow, and the extreme cold of Kontiolahti means it can be plugged in almost anywhere on the calendar with no trouble - but once Kaisa retires, Finland's a fairly marginal country in the sport, and with Fak not performing Slovenia already is. Surely there's more value to sponsors in the huge crowds at Nové Mesto?

 

[python]

Re: Re:

Ustiugov's no Northug, that much is clear.

You are right. He is Sergey Ustiugov.

there is a lot to be said comparing the two. i will perhaps later. but for now, since i have to run, will note that the straight comparison is difficult...both are a rare breed of the top distance skiers that can sprint along with the very best.

but they are different types of sprinters. and i don't mean the sprinting discipline as a separate form of ski competition.

those that ever followed the track cycling will know the 2 sprinter types i am about to elucidate. imo, northug is a 'top acceleration' sprinter, while ustiougov is a 'top speed' sprinter'. and i mean when both are at their natural best b/c it a mixed bag, like 30/70 or 40/60. the top acceleration guys will gauge their effort for as close to the line as possible (explosion, spurt), while the top speed guys will wait and calculate b/c they own the top end km/h when the acceleration reserve of a competitor gets exhausted...

regarding the relays, it was verrry interesting in terms of double poling vs a grip wax in the classic legs.

sundby made a mistake and everyone could see it by going double...if the 2nd leg guys figured out earlier that they had to put the pedal to the metal, sundby would lose 25-30 seconds imo..on the 1st 2 km lap sundby's tactic was to jump ahead the pack and act as brake. it worked for a while. then we all saw he was struggling and only a lazy would not pass him uphill. also, i cant recall norway 2 being so far back. better performance from the swedes than i thought...

gone..

 

[Cance > TheRest]

Re: Re:

It's tougher than Antholz, but compared to Pokljuka and Ruhpolding which are notoriously difficult trails it's usually a cake-walk in NMNM in terms of altitude gain and loss and technical challenges, especially on the shortest loop (the 2k which the women will take on today). It looks like they've reprofiled it slightly since the 2013 Worlds though, and snow conditions certainly affect matters for obvious reasons. I think the race program also helps, what with this year having no relay (using the shorter, less selective loops) or Individual (which due to the 1' penalties for a miss has put the onus back on shooting) which they've had here in previous years. Also those two courses mentioned above suffer from having very high shooting percentages because while the trails are very tough, the run-in to the range is comparatively easy, as opposed to, say, Kontiolahti or Khanty-Mansiysk where the trails are selective but not quite as tough, however there's a serious climb into the stadium area so the recovery for shooting is harder.

I was not arguing which venue is tougher than others that much; more like your initional claim that Dahlmeier, Kaisa and Koukalova (fastest skiers) had problem to gain time on slower skiers when it was clearly the other way round and they've gained unusual amount of time.

Judging from reactions of some including Svendsen it looks that Nove Mesto course is one of the toughest out there which is quite the opposite of what you claim (or claimed previously) - that it's one of the easiest courses out there. You've too begun to change your opinion since back then.

I checked the time distance from the fastest to the median skier in the three sprint races:

Women:
Nove Mesto +1:25.3
Pokljuka +1:27.5
Östersund +1:42.2

Men:
Nove Mesto 1:26.1
Pokljuka +1:10.8
Östersund +1:13.5

Ofcourse the field is different from competition to competition, but based on these numbers alone I would tend to agree with you that Nove Mesto certainly can certainly creat ski gaps. That said, I don't find the NM tracks as exciting compared to Pokljuka or the amazing Presque Isle tracks.

You have to take into account that the tracks usually are in much worse shape in Nove Mesto compared to e.g. Östersund and Pokljuka. I believe the course itself is easier in Nove Mesto, but the conditions (soft and deep snow, warm weather, icy tracks) make it relatively hard and more difficult for servicemen and that leads to bigger gaps. The tracks themselves aren't really that hard, Sundby double poled them last year.

You are right. I did notice that the conditions were rather soft, especially after the sprint events. Still, be it soft snow or a tough course Nove Mesto can create time gaps just like any other venue.

 

[Kokoso]

Re: Re:

It's tougher than Antholz, but compared to Pokljuka and Ruhpolding which are notoriously difficult trails it's usually a cake-walk in NMNM in terms of altitude gain and loss and technical challenges, especially on the shortest loop (the 2k which the women will take on today). It looks like they've reprofiled it slightly since the 2013 Worlds though, and snow conditions certainly affect matters for obvious reasons. I think the race program also helps, what with this year having no relay (using the shorter, less selective loops) or Individual (which due to the 1' penalties for a miss has put the onus back on shooting) which they've had here in previous years. Also those two courses mentioned above suffer from having very high shooting percentages because while the trails are very tough, the run-in to the range is comparatively easy, as opposed to, say, Kontiolahti or Khanty-Mansiysk where the trails are selective but not quite as tough, however there's a serious climb into the stadium area so the recovery for shooting is harder.

I was not arguing which venue is tougher than others that much; more like your initional claim that Dahlmeier, Kaisa and Koukalova (fastest skiers) had problem to gain time on slower skiers when it was clearly the other way round and they've gained unusual amount of time.

Judging from reactions of some including Svendsen it looks that Nove Mesto course is one of the toughest out there which is quite the opposite of what you claim (or claimed previously) - that it's one of the easiest courses out there. You've too begun to change your opinion since back then.

I checked the time distance from the fastest to the median skier in the three sprint races:

Women:
Nove Mesto +1:25.3
Pokljuka +1:27.5
Östersund +1:42.2

Men:
Nove Mesto 1:26.1
Pokljuka +1:10.8
Östersund +1:13.5

Ofcourse the field is different from competition to competition, but based on these numbers alone I would tend to agree with you that Nove Mesto certainly can certainly creat ski gaps. That said, I don't find the NM tracks as exciting compared to Pokljuka or the amazing Presque Isle tracks.

You have to take into account that the tracks usually are in much worse shape in Nove Mesto compared to e.g. Östersund and Pokljuka. I believe the course itself is easier in Nove Mesto, but the conditions (soft and deep snow, warm weather, icy tracks) make it relatively hard and more difficult for servicemen and that leads to bigger gaps. The tracks themselves aren't really that hard, Sundby double poled them last year.

You are right. I did notice that the conditions were rather soft, especially after the sprint events. Still, be it soft snow or a tough course Nove Mesto can create time gaps just like any other venue.

There was pretty cold and hard snow, that's why athletes were falling on downhills.

 

[Kokoso]

Re:

That's a great point actually, the reputation for easy trails came when the events at NMNM were much later in the season, in colder and more stable conditions so the snow wouldn't be as soft whereas hosting in December before there's really been a huge amount of snowfall

Actually there was pretty cold weather and fast snow this year, so another BS actually.

I will sump up this debate and I'll be unplesant, becuase you debating style angered me: all arguments you've said about Nove Mesto tracks was actually right. It all boils down to the personal tastes. Why don't say "I just don't like it there for some reason" instead of mading up arguments, that's one's guess. Why don't you like Nove Mesto trails anyway?

To sum it up: you are just pushing point, talking equivocate, ignoring facts talking against you opinion while highlighting those supporting it. While all you could just say "I was wrong actually".

 

[Brullnux]

It's true, the temperature was never over 2 degrees, and until Sunday never above 0. However, the previous week's high temperatures may have had an effect, just 3 days before the first sprint race it was reaching 6 or 7 degrees.

The snow did seem kind of sludgy by Sunday though, but I guess this is to be expected with fake snow(I presume this was mostly fake snow) and 4 days of intense racing.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Re: Re:

Actually there was pretty cold weather and fast snow this year, so another BS actually.

I will sump up this debate and I'll be unplesant, becuase you debating style angered me: all arguments you've said about Nove Mesto tracks was actually right. It all boils down to the personal tastes. Why don't say "I just don't like it there for some reason" instead of mading up arguments, that's one's guess. Why don't you like Nove Mesto trails anyway?

To sum it up: you are just pushing point, talking equivocate, ignoring facts talking against you opinion while highlighting those supporting it. While all you could just say "I was wrong actually".

I like to present my opinions with explanation and justification. Sometimes you may not like, or agree with those explanations and justifications, and sometimes those will be based on misconceptions.

I feel that the NMNM trails' deficits for my personal preference are that there's a lot of rolling terrain with fairly low gradient uphill and downhill; your counter-argument from the time gaps was that actually the trails were very hard, which Erwin countered by pointing out that Sundby double-poled the whole course last year. Perhaps it's that a lot of my favourite athletes are fast skiers with a weakness in the shooting range, so I prefer to see more steep gradient walls that allow a more serious attack to be made. Another issue I have with the trails is the placement of the obstacles; it feels like on many of the courses at NMNM the run-in to the range is comparatively easy (this is a not atypical issue for stadia with the same configuration of start-finish, range and loop as Nové Mesto, e.g. Östersund. Tyumen' has a similar issue, I'm not keen on the trails there and was already down on the move of the World Cup from Khanty for that reason) so the pressure on the shooting is not the same as at courses like Khanty-Mansiysk or Kontiolahti where the athletes have to climb into the stadium so there's little respite before the range (although at Khanty there's a fair amount of flat around the stadium). Oberhof is somewhere between, as in most configurations it has a long drag up into the stadium which is visually not very appealing, but the conditions in the range there are notoriously changeable. The atmosphere in Nové Mesto and the profitability to the IBU because of the sheer number of fans means, especially if the Russians will be frozen out of the World Cup for the time being, it's almost a must-have on the calendar for both fans and feds alike, but it's not a venue I feel any great affection for. Just like Antholz.

That's just how I feel about it. Your mileage may vary.

I also don't really see the difference between your "unpleasant" posting style towards me and your regular posting style towards me. Maybe that's why you don't like my tone. We've had our disagreements, we've made our preconceptions, we've hi-jacked both XC/biathlon-related threads a dozen times, let's agree to disagree and leave it there.

 

[BullsFan22]

Has anyone looked at the finalized(??) rosters for the Tour de Ski? The Swedes have as strong a team as they've ever had at the tour. Kalla will be back, Nilsson will race, Hellner, Richardsson, Halfvarsson...Really the only notable name missing is Olsson, but we know he doesn't like to race a lot anyway, so his absence was expected.

No Northug. Yes, a bit of a surprise, even if his early season form has not been good. No Bjoergen either. I think at this point in her career, she doesn't really mind if she doesn't have a TDS title to her name. I think Weng shouldn't have too many problems winning it this year. Sundby is again the big favorite, but we'll see what happens.

Interesting to see what will happen with the Russian roster. Ustiugov is a yes, but after that there is uncertainty, for various reasons.

The smaller teams are more or less made up of the same people we see every week on the WC.

 

[python]

i am excited about the tour de ski start tomorrow

the sprint quals will start about 6;20 my time.

some replacements are interesting. calle halfvarsson isn't on a start list (sick we are told). the russians had entered the young talent to replace the lego-man and vyleg. of course we know northug is going to mis his 1st tds.

ustiuogov will be the main if not hte only rival of the norge machine. my hunch is that krogh will be as strong or stronger that sundby. my emotion is with serhey and marcus and stina, but i am ready to just enjoy the action day by day

 

[Bavarianrider]

Honestly I have never been less excited for it. So many big names are missing and the route is absolute horseshit.

 

[May0maniac]

Honestly I have never been less excited for it. So many big names are missing and the route is absolute horseshit.

Yes, too many big names are missing, that's a bummer.
I miss Cortina - Toblach, but with the lack of natural snow it wouldn't even be possible.
Let's hope that at least Krogh and Ustiuogov will be able to give Sundby some problems.
For the Women, I fear that it's gonna be a full on Norge domination, even without Marit.

 

[python]

as a fan, i cant complain with the 1st day of the tds.

not at all !

stina destroyed the norge gals. it was a superiority plain in simple in every heat. But what ustiugov did was not just a destruction but a humiliation. his last final time, i think, was even faster than his qual. ...the gap he opened on the last hill due to his jumping skate 1 cadance was a candy to watch. i also love that pelle shoved the norges back. cant NOT like that krogh was 3d ahead of the beard.

speaking of beards, it seems everyone had grown one - ustiuogov, harvey, even pelle...i may have missed some more beards, b/c i watched on the svt (its not HD like the nrk which wasn't broadcasting live today).

all in all, tomorrow we may see more strength from both stina and serhey as there are intermediate 15 sec bonus sprints for which they will surely will fight. glad for alex harvey who showed an amazing finish to clip larkov, who also did very well. cologna was solid today. he may be very aggressive tomorrow since he loves those classic massstarts...

my man danny richardsson should have stayed home

 

[May0maniac]

Yes, 1sec faster than his qual., that was a monster performance.
Harvey looked strong and cologna already said at the start of the season that he wants to start slow to target TdS and the WC, so he seems to be on track.
De Fabiani fell in his 1/4 Final, he could have a good TdS.
Heidi should have the women's overall in the bag, but maybe Diggins will be able to finish in the top 5, that would be great.

 

[python]

well, well well.....

it was a classic in soft conditions - the 2 things where sundby is normally superior to ustiugov (and almost every one). yet, ustiougov just won in a rather convincing manner leaving sundby in 2nd.

the russian is obviously in some fantastic form and he has a few skating events coming up, his own preferred style.

martin must worry when he cant win a classic event.

 

[Singer01]

Re:

well, well well.....

it was a classic in soft conditions - the 2 things where sundby is normally superior to ustiugov (and almost every one). yet, ustiougov just won in a rather convincing manner leaving sundby in 2nd.

the russian is obviously in some fantastic form and he has a few skating events coming up, his own preferred style.

martin must worry when he cant win a classic event.

looking at their times last year MJS put only 47 seconds into him on the final climb. however not sure he couldn't have pulled a bit more out if necessary, maybe this year will be worth watching up until the end.

 

[Bavarianrider]

There could be snowfall in the handicap start on wednesday. So it could very well happen that everything runs together again. Therefore, most likely in the men's race, everything that happenes during the first three stages will rather be meaningless for the Overall classification.

 

[python]

Re: Re:

well, well well.....

it was a classic in soft conditions - the 2 things where sundby is normally superior to ustiugov (and almost every one). yet, ustiougov just won in a rather convincing manner leaving sundby in 2nd.

the russian is obviously in some fantastic form and he has a few skating events coming up, his own preferred style.

martin must worry when he cant win a classic event.

looking at their times last year MJS put only 47 seconds into him on the final climb. however not sure he couldn't have pulled a bit more out if necessary, maybe this year will be worth watching up until the end.

that's correct. i'd think a 50 seconds difference between them on the alp cermis last year is a fair assumptions. i'd also agree sundby could have gained another handful of seconds since he had no competitive reason to go all out on the very top knowing already he was the winner.

but this year, the final climb might yield some narrow gaps btwn the 2. i reckon sundby still holds a natural uphill advantage since he's about 8 kg lighter. say, if the climb took place tomorrow, based on their relative performance to-date, the difference would likely shrink from 50 seconds to 30 seconds.that's what ustiougov probably had in mind when he claimed he can win the tour. iow, if he manages to get about 1 minute advantage before the final climb, his chance of the overall is good.

but getting the 60 seconds on sundby given what we know of his past performances in the tds is a tall ask.

in ustiougov's favour is the following:

-there are no long classic mass starts left where sundby accumulated huge advantage in the past by collecting all intermediate bonuses.
-the coming up events in oberstdorf (the 20km skiathlon and a 15 km skate pursuit) will likely be held at colder conditions (the warmest forecast is -1C). meaning, there will likely be no disadvantage to sagging of a heavier, powerful style. compare it to the last stage of the tour of canada last year to appreciate the point. plus, of the 35 race kilometers in oberstdorf, 25 will be skating where ustiougov excels.

my hunch is that sundby and ustiougov will still be under a minute apart (either way) before the 6 january 10 km skate in toblach.

either of them can have a bad day and all these projections can be reduced to a fancy. still, i see some rationale for ustiugov being so confident, which is not characteristic of his public persona.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Ustiugov is probably in the best position to unseat Sundby, but I really can't see past the hirsute one on the Alpe between the two of them. Among the women, I just assume Ingvild needs a minute at least going into the final pursuit, because though she's improved on last year, Weng has been second best on Alpe Cermis after Johaug more often than not in the last few years, about a minute behind Therese and a decent distance ahead of most others, bar one year where I think Liz Stephen was second, though that might have been Lysebotn.