Nordic Skiing/Biathlon Thread

[Kokoso]

Quite a number was even faster than Sergej today. Harvey, Cologna, Heikinnen, Hellner, Toenseth, Krueger, Manificat, Larkov. Sergej's performance looks quite believable today, as it look yesterday.

Edit: Heikinnen was fastest. Sundby 10th. His former dominance look over after doping scandal.

 

[BullsFan22]

Re:

Quite a number was even faster than Sergej today. Harvey, Cologna, Heikinnen, Hellner, Toenseth, Krueger, Manificat, Larkov. Sergej's performance looks quite believable today, as it look yesterday.

Edit: Heikinnen was fastest. Sundby 10th. His former dominance look over after doping scandal.

Yes, 6 skiers had faster times than Ustiugov today, (Harvey was half a second better), Heikkinen bet him by 35. Believable or not, he skied by himself, as did Sundby, the whole way, while everyone else was in groups, so it was much easier for them than for Ustiugov and Sundby, particularly in the soft snow conditions.

 

[John de Savage]

Weng brought to tears of shame from racing like Simon Gerrans.

https://www.nrk.no/sport/fortvilet-weng-knakk-sammen-i-tv-2-intervju-1.13304973

 

[BullsFan22]

How much of a lead does Ustiugov need to have before the final climb? 1 minute? 1:30? More? Given his current shape and motivation, he may not need too much more than what he has now. I don't think Ustiugov will gain as much time in the next two stages, but then again, I didn't think he'd win four in a row to start the tour. I sincerely hope, whether he gains more time on Sundby or not, he is able to win the tour. Enough is enough. Apart from the 2015 TDS where Sundby was stripped of the title, he's won every single mini tour and tour de ski since the beginning of the 2013/2014 season. It's time for someone else to win this.

My worry about Ustiugov, among a number of things, is how will he recover from the tour? World Champs in Lahti start on February 20th. Prior to the season, his (now former) coach Isabel Knauthe said that Sergey's goals are 1) to win the overall WC and 2) to win medals at worlds. Pretty standard stuff for a top skier like him, right? Well, it's not going to be easy for him. I am guessing he will skip the Toblach sprints the week after the tour (in terms of the overall, that would have been a great opportunity to win more points away from the likes of Sundby), but then the races just keep coming...Ulriceham (a new WC venue in Sweden), Falun, the pre-Olympic races in Korea and then the Otepaa races just before the Worlds. What will he race? Going from Sweden to Korea and then back across Asia, Russia and to the Baltics in Estonia....not a quick journey. That will also be a question we can pose for other contenders as well. Which races will they deem important? If you are fighting for WC points, then you need to race as many races as you can, but you also have to recover and train and maintain. Plus it's easy to get sick after such exertion at the tour de ski and the travel alone is tough on the body. My hope is that the likes of Ustiugov and Nilsson don't burn out after the tour and they will choose their racing/travel plans wisely and will continue their winning ways in Lahti. I'd also love to see the Finns winning some medals at home. It would be nice revenge after what happened in 2001....

 

[John de Savage]

Sergey climbed surprisingly well last year, but keep in mind that Sundby had no incentive to push himself.
http://medias2.fis-ski.com/pdf/2016/CC/2188/2016CC2188PRL.PDF

 

[python]

...anticipating an exciting race in toblah in about 1:30

just checked some parameters and it looks like this will be the most 'winter' event so far in the tds. the up to the minute fis info from the skiing centre says the air is minus 11.75 C and the snow is minus 10 c. good news for heavy skiers like ustiogov and harvey. NOT a great news for those known to suffer a cold-air-induced asthma, like sundby. but we know that he and other sufferers can rely on tue's...plus being over 1000 m in elevation does not help the asthmatics..

the loop is also interesting. it is the longest in the tds - 5 km. there is literally not a single flat stretch. it is a continuous wash board with 9 distinct 10-30 m bumps. such a course may hurt those who excel at a steady pace and favour those with a sprinting/acceleration propencity. again, not a bad news for ustiougov or stina.

it is hard to project a winner. i bet on stina and heikkinen to win. i expect cologna, hellner, larkov, chervotkin, toenseth, sundby, ustiougov, harvey, manificat to composed top 10 (not necessarily in the order i listed them).

back to breakfast..

 

[meat puppet]

Tight race thus far. Manificat vs ustiugov for the win judging by what we have seen.

 

[TomasC]

Sundby losing about 20s to Ustiugov on 6,6km..
Edit: 22s actually
Manificat is amazing, very clean style, not a move in vain.

 

[meat puppet]

Ustiugov won by 0,4 sec! Manificat second. Krueger third, heikkinen fourth.

Before bonifications, Sundby lost 36sec to ustiugov. Heikkinen gained about 10 on cologna and 20 on harvey.

 

[python]

5 of 5 ! sundby ? who ? in another area of the forum we are told he is as fast as ever...manificat deserved it but less lucky today...

 

[TomasC]

So it's more than a minute and a half for Ustiugov now. That was some berserk skiing from him today.

 

[May0maniac]

That event was a ton of fun, great Skiing and having a great time with my friends.
I wanted Manificat to win,De Fabiani finishing in the top 10 means that he's finally in great shape, he could surprise people tomorrow and have a monster peak for the WC.
Diggins once again won on her favourite loop, that's also great news.
The loop can be rather hard, at least for a beginner like me (I just started skating 2 years ago) 3 laps in Toblach can be pretty hard.

 

[BullsFan22]

I tell you what, if Ustiugov wins these last two stages, then he should take the rest of the year off. So what if he misses the World's in Lahti? He's absolutely tearing everyone apart. Even the split second wins are going his way. The last couple hundred meters, heck, even the last couple ten meters I thought it was Manificat, but he hung on. Unbelievable. I thought before today's race that if Sundby were to win and get some time back on Ustiugov, it would make tomorrow's mass start that much more important, especially so with the other Norwegians helping Sundby by pacing and going for bonus seconds. Now, after Sundby lost 51 seconds (including bonus seconds that Ustiugov won by winning) and is now at 1:34 back, those tactics might be thrown out the window. If Sundby has another 'off day,' he would be in danger of being overtaken by the likes of Cologna and Harvey and looking ahead to Sunday and Alpe Cermis, he would be even in danger of getting caught by Heikkinen, Manificat and Hellner. 3rd to 9th places are separated by 40 seconds. That could tighten even further after tomorrow. If Sundby loses some more ground and 3-9 tightens more, then that fight for 2nd and 3rd will be fascinating, could possibly set up the most exciting battle on Alpe Cermis since the TDS began in 2007. The last close race between multiple skiers was in 2013, when Legkov skied away from Cologna, Vylegzhanin and Northug.

 

[Kokoso]

I tell you what, if Ustiugov wins these last two stages, then he should take the rest of the year off.

Why?

 

[Singer01]

I tell you what, if Ustiugov wins these last two stages, then he should take the rest of the year off.

Why?

if anyone needs to take the rest of the year off its fourcade, this is so *** boring.

 

[portugal11]

Martin is the best shooter of all times, how the hell can he shoot 5 out of 5 in these conditions?

 

[python]

Re:

Martin is the best shooter of all times, how the hell can he shoot 5 out of 5 in these conditions?

let me fix you 1st of all, martin never shot a sporting rifle and it is not martin but ustiougov who had 5 of 5

i am kidding, of course, b/c that's how someone not frequenting the thread's 2 sports could read about 'martins and 5 of 5'.

back to xc skiing, if seriously, i dont think the russ will land 6 of 6 (which will effectively mean 7 of 7) b/c the competition behind him will need every second of the 45 available bonus seconds to get on a podium tomorrow. cologna is in a better position than harvey imo. also, sundby will look for those seconds too b/c he's only 30 or so seconds up on a current 3d. if i were sundby, i'd also be very mindful of heikkien and hellner on the last stage should they be allowed to within 30 seconds of him...

it will be an interesting 15 km tactic-wise. if sundby feels well, he will try to create an instant break away, like he used to do. ustiougov should not rush to chase, b/c it would be in colgna's and harvey's interest to shadow martin. then he should follow if he can. that's a big IF, b/c he said he had great difficulties on both classic legs so far. to that extent, he should helped by the still moderately cold weather...i just checked, the air isn't as cold as yesterday (-3C vs -11C), but the snow is still cold and hard (-8C).

i also expect a punch from bessmertych who was surprisingly good in a skate yesterday he usually does not favour - means his body may not be as tired as others. but i doubt he'll go for bonuses, rather for the eventual podium.

if ustiougov shows up within 200 m of the finish line in a leading group - it is likely 6 of 6 and 7 of 7.

 

[BullsFan22]

One thing is for sure, if Nilsson and Ustiugov are anywhere near the leaders coming into the final few hundred meters, it would take something very special to beat either of them. Nilsson is learning pretty quickly. How will she fare on the tough Lahti courses? Will the Swedes give her an opportunity in one or more of the distance races? Seeing that it's really been her and Kalla that have had any significant distance results for them this year on the women's side, it might be a good move. She'll definitely race the sprint, team sprint and relay, but what about other races? My guess is that she might get an opportunity in the 15km skiathlon.

One thing about the women's races so far this year, particularly now at the tour de ski, is how relatively close the races have been. I get that Johaug and Bjoergen aren't here and the Kowalczyk hasn't seriously contended for medals since Falun 2015, but this is about as competitive as the women's field has been in a number of years. I know a number of top skiers are missing, some have abandoned the tour after a certain stage and others just didn't compete at all, but it's refreshing to see a bit more competition and most of all, the Norwegians being shut out of the podium in a distance race for two straight races. When was the last time that happened? It's been a while. There are a number of reasons this may be the case, and one or two of those reasons are best saved for the 'other' thread, but anyway it's great to see the Swedish and Finnish women up there on the podium, and also great to see the Russian women having a bit of a comeback this year (first with their young sprinter Belorukova, another youngster Sedova, Kalsina, Soboleva and obviously Tchekaleva who has been their best distance skier for the past few years), the swiss women have done very well at this tour-Von Siebenthal who is 6 or 7 now in the overall standings, Van Der Graaff who is an excellent sprinter that also had a top 10 in Val Mustair 5km, and the youngster, Faendrich. Also there is Stadlober and obviously the American women, but that's not a surprise anymore, though Bjornsen had the race of her life. She was always an excellent classic skier, way back to the U16 category in the US, but this was something else. Not sure why she didn't start today, maybe feeling a bit sick or too much champagne for the team last night...:0

 

[python]

i am going to be brief. some surprises among the women but all the questions i have are better fit for the clinic...

6 of 6 did not happen, but sundby can claim saving the norwegian honour. As i said before the tds, 1+ min gap should be enough for the russ to top. he has 1:11, which is plenty with 90% certainty given he lost to sundby only 19 sec on a climb itself last year. another impression - the very seldom seen good team work from the russians.

cologna should fear matti tomorrow.

 

[BullsFan22]

Re:

i am going to be brief. some surprises among the women but all the questions i have are better fit for the clinic...

6 of 6 did not happen, but sundby can claim saving the norwegian honour. As i said before the tds, 1+ min gap should be enough for the russ to top. he has 1:11, which is plenty with 90% certainty given he lost to sundby only 19 sec on a climb itself last year. another impression - the very seldom seen good team work from the russians.

cologna should fear matti tomorrow.

The battle for third tomorrow will be fascinating. Harvey won't be on the podium, he hasn't done as well on the final climb as the other climbers around him. I would put the Oberstdorf handicap pursuit as the race that made the close battle possible. It's a shame that Cologna didn't get any help from Harvey in that race. They could have closed another 10-20 seconds had Harvey done his share of responsibility. If that was the case, Cologna would be A) closer to Sundby and quite possibly would go for it on the final day to try and catch the Norwegian and B) he would be far enough ahead of Heikkinen, Hellner and Manificat to not worry. Harvey ruined his chances (as small as they were to begin with) but he also didn't do any favors to Cologna. I think Cologna might hold on. Like last year in Canada, Heikkinen is getting better and better as the tour goes on and it's a pity he isn't better at sprinting, but then again he's also fortunate that there was only one sprint this year rather than 2 or sometimes 3 as it had been in past tours.

I think the chances are still very good that Ustiugov wins tomorrow. I don't think Sundby will close much on the flat section before the final climb, which means he is going to have to start to motor right from the start of the climb. On the other hand, Ustiugov will still need to ski smart and be patient. The conditions may be a bit better this year, harder snow, which will help Ustiugov and will also mean that it might take less time than last year. I don't doubt that Sundby will ski the actual climb faster than Ustiugov, but to take away 1:11 off of him? Fatigue will be felt by everyone. I know Ustiugov said he's fought hard the last couple stages, and it showed at the finish, but I think his form will not drop on the final day and he'll have the motivation and confidence to be the second Russian to win the Tour de Ski and will unseat the current champion.

 

[May0maniac]

I guess that Sundby could loose the whole Tour because of going off track. missing out on the sprint for bonus seconds and spending a decent amount of energy to catch up in a race when Ustiugov wasn't at his best.
The Russian team was really strong today and Bessmertych being great in Toblach was a bit of a surprise, but the Russian team was training in Toblach around Christmas for 7-10 days, so I expected a few of them to be pretty fast.
De Fabiani was really strong today, he'll be ready for the WC.
The women's race was great to watch.
Yesterday the Swiss commentators mentioned the fact that apparently Simen Hegstad Krüger has a ridiciulously high v2o max and that he could be a dark horse on the final stage.

 

[meat puppet]

I think ustiugov will hold on, skiing within himself and not panicking is the key. He should have the physio to pull this off. The rest will be about excecution.

Heikkinen appeared quite confident when he was asked by YLE reporters what to expect from him tomorrow. The answer was simply "Lysebotn" implying that he has won lysebotn opp twice in a row now, and more specifically that he put 1,5min into cologna last year over the 7,5k race.

But that was in the summer of course. And there are some other key differences between alpe cermis and lysebotn although both are uphill races. Lysebotn is less steep and essentially a wassberg / v2 effort for the top men. Alpe cermis is done in v1 mostly. So different animals. I think cologna has a really really fluent v1.

I think heikkinen will do well but not well enough to leapfrog to the podium. I predict cologna will hang on at least to his overall position but perhaps also to heikkinen on the climb. I also expect Manificat will be a tough nut to crack.

Interesting to see how krueger does!

In ladies it is difficult to say what to expect. Weng wins "usually" but now she has been on a downward trend, imo. Still she will try to catch Stina early on. Blowing up properly is unlikely, but not impossible. if that happens I expect pärmäkoski to capitalise big time. Think pärmä might have a good shot to catch nilsson anyway. Guess Id like to see nilsson win.

Most importantly though it is nice that there is some suspense to the alpe race for a change!

 

[BullsFan22]

Re:

I guess that Sundby could loose the whole Tour because of going off track. missing out on the sprint for bonus seconds and spending a decent amount of energy to catch up in a race when Ustiugov wasn't at his best.
The Russian team was really strong today and Bessmertych being great in Toblach was a bit of a surprise, but the Russian team was training in Toblach around Christmas for 7-10 days, so I expected a few of them to be pretty fast.
De Fabiani was really strong today, he'll be ready for the WC.
The women's race was great to watch.
Yesterday the Swiss commentators mentioned the fact that apparently Simen Hegstad Krüger has a ridiciulously high v2o max and that he could be a dark horse on the final stage.

Mike Dixon, one of the British Eurosport commentators said that Musgrave and Ustiugov have naturally high hemoglobin. One way he said to possibly know is 'red cheeks.' Since he mentioned it, I've been very curious to know what their natural levels are. This isn't meant to be some sort of clinic thread post, just curious.

 

[python]

Re: Re:

Harvey won't be on the podium, he hasn't done as well on the final climb as the other climbers around him.

harvey has done only one cermis per my records. he had an operation a couple years back which he claimed corrected a condition that did not allow him to do the complete tour. his only climb (last year) was at 65 sec behind the winner (matti) placing the 16th. i am referring ONLY to the climbing part. agree, still he should not be able to threaten cologna, who, when in shape, (which he is splendidly) consistently placed in the top 10 over the years. matti is a whole different matter...he was the fastest last year on the hill when the conditions were soft and all the heavy skiers struggled a great deal. curiously, it was manificat who was the fastest climber in 2015 and...guess what...the conditions were packed. Just like 2 days ago, when the cold, packed conditions propelled the 2 powerful technicians, manificat and ustiuogov, to take 2 top spots in as skate individual 10k. i think manificat will climb better than serhey, one, b/c he is 5 kg lighter, two, b/c he's wonderfully efficient. probably the best in the field.

tomorrow it is expected to be packed. still, i think heikkinen and particularly manificat can take on dario particularly b/c they will work together on the flat part starting only 2 seconds apart. that's 5-7 seconds potential gain on dario BEFORE the 3 km climb starts..i dont expect hellner to challenge the podium but he had historically been one of the fastest up the hill. he should overtake harvey, but probably not manificat/ heikkinen.

to conclude. everyone is tired. if the race today is to offer any clues, the fact that sundby attacked only towards the end and ustiuogov was able to lose only 2 seconds still holding on to the 2nd tells me they are at the same level of fatigue. but ustiougov is 8 years younger than sundby and perhaps is recovering better. also, this will be his 2nd climb thus more pacing experience. and finally, it is mostly skating V1 in packed conditions where his weight disadvantage should be limited. this is his race to lose.

 

[meat puppet]

The ladies are about to start the climb. Weng has almost caught nilsson.

Here's a live GPS tracker for those without a feed

http://static.sportresult.com/federations/fis/livetracker/cc/index.html#baseFrame#outputs/results/fis/liveTracker/js/mappings/liveTrackerRoot#RootInit#CURRENTEVENT_JSON##main-frame_content#outputs/results/fis/liveTracker/js/mappings/liveTrackerRoot#ContentSubFrame#CURRENTEVENT_JSON##sub-frame_content#outputs/results/fis/liveTracker/js/mappings/liveTrackerPlayer#LiveTrackerPlayerInit#SEASON_CC1617_CC_json#Events.CC1617SWRLCP08