Now Alberto is out, who will win the 2012 Tour de France?

[Afrank]

Obviously Evans is the overall favorite, but I can't help remembering Wiggins defence of yellow in the dauphine and Evans struggling to keep up with the front group in the mountains.

My head says Evans or Wiggins for the overall, but I'd like to see Schleck win. I think it would be great to see a climber win in such a time trial heavy tour.

 

[markene2]

My hearth say Vino, but i think it will be Menchov

 

[Forunculo]

Obviously Evans is the overall favorite, but I can't help remembering Wiggins defence of yellow in the dauphine and Evans struggling to keep up with the front group in the mountains.

My head says Evans or Wiggins for the overall, but I'd like to see Schleck win. I think it would be great to see a climber win in such a time trial heavy tour.

Cadel was going easy at dauphine as he showed later

 

[Sem Travões]

I thinking of a surprise this year, kind of an Oscar Pereiro situation, but then who knows, we might just end up with another Floyd Landis kind of winner, and that would be for the best, cause those two years winners who are not winners, are making me a bit confuse about who was won the tour. Did Riis won or not?

 

[Swede1]

Haha it would be hilarious if Valverde won. Like a big **** you to the UCI. I went with Menchov (I always vote for him and hopefully he will come through this time). I think he is super motivated because this seems to be his best chance ever to win. He is on a strong team that fully supports him, has a tour route that favors him, and has no contador to fight with. I simply do not see Wiggins winning the tour. Evans will probably be right up there. Andy will find his way onto the podium with some powerful mountain stages. Thats about it.

 

[guncha]

I would say Andy.
I can't believe Evans will do it twice.

 

[rgmerk]

Evans has to be favourite, as defending champion on a course that if anything suits him better than last time.

However...

Andy Schleck is generally regarded as second-best climber in the world - at least, the second-best climber on long climbs in stage races. He's also around about the same weight as Contador. In other words, he must be able to put out very similar wattage. If he can put out similar wattage to Contador on a climb, it stands to reason that he has the potential to do so in a TT.

It seems to me that he has more scope for improvement on his weaknesses than any other GC contender.

Then again, this has been the case for the past three or four years, and he still hasn't managed to get his TT to the level it logically should be.

 

[SHAD0W93]

I voted Menchov but hope Klödi can do something and make top 5.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

if you're gonna rate vandenbroeck, wiggins and nibali then gesink should have been in this poll

 

[royalpig180]

Cuddles is the obvious choice and I voted for him, but I think that writing off Andy's chances is a bit premature. With Contador gone, there will be little questioning his supremacy in the mountains, and he should ride a little more confidently. Also, love him or hate him, Bruyneel is good with tactics and I don't think he'll have the Schlecks waiting around this year.

What it will really come down to is Evan's climbing form. If he climbs as well as he did last year than he could concede minimal time to A. Schleck and then destroy him in the TTs, and win again. But he was climbing rather exceptionally last year, and it might not be repeatable. That was also with the Schleck's tactics failing on every stage but one.

 

[Zam_Olyas]

I thinking of a surprise this year, kind of an Oscar Pereiro situation, but then who knows, we might just end up with another Floyd Landis kind of winner, and that would be for the best, cause those two years winners who are not winners, are making me a bit confuse about who was won the tour. Did Riis won or not?

Technically he is still a winner.First it was removed but they wrote it back again on the ufficiale TDF records book.

 

[Havetts]

if you're gonna rate vandenbroeck, wiggins and nibali then gesink should have been in this poll

Gesink is coming back from a very bad injury and the Dutch posters may think I was being a bit harsh on him but the options above imo are the most likely winners of the race.

As you see, ACF already answered that -> so I didnt have to make a fuss about it aswell .

 

[biopass]

Cuddles, obvious.

Andy's gonna be second.

The podium will be completed by some dude who gained 11 minutes on a madman's breakaway

 

[cineteq]

As you see, ACF already answered that -> so I didnt have to make a fuss about it aswell .

It doesn't mean it was a good answer though

 

[Publicus]

Without a doubt Cuddles has to be the overall favorite now, especially since I had him a close #2 behind the Great One. I think remaining podium spots are open to the GC men who can TT and survive on the climbs (Nibbles, Wiggles, Bottle, and Klodi to name a few) , especially now that Contador is out, Andy won't have anyone to help really turn the screws in the mountains (sorry Frank, it's not your fault but you just aren't a replacement for Contador)--he'll look lost just like he did at the Tour last year (except for his exceptional move on Stage 18 last year).

Barring injury, I say Cuddles, Bottle and Schlecklett/Wiggles/Klodi/Horner--in that order. I'll revise it after I see how they are actually riding compared to how I think they will ride in July.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

this forum isn't about acf's opinion tho

he's coming..

in reality, at this point im not sure who wins.

 

[The Hitch]

Without a doubt Cuddles has to be the overall favorite now, especially since I had him a close #2 behind the Great One. I think remaining podium spots are open to the GC men who can TT and survive on the climbs (Nibbles, Wiggles, Bottle, and Klodi to name a few).

Theres this guy called Samuel Sanchez. He rides for Euskaletl. Anyway hes a way better tter than Nibali who, well I don't know what hes doing next to Wiggins Levi and Kloeden on a list of good tters.

 

[Publicus]

Theres this guy called Samuel Sanchez. He rides for Euskaletl. Anyway hes a way better tter than Nibali who, well I don't know what hes doing next to Wiggins Levi and Kloeden on a list of good tters.

That's why I said "to name a few." I was going to say Sanchez to avoid the obligatory Hitch-Haze, but then I said f-ck it.

 

[airstream]

Andy won't have anyone to help really turn the screws in the mountains (sorry Frank, it's not your fault but you just aren't a replacement for Contador

You're saying this as if Contador helped Andy to gain all the time in the mountains in 09 and 10 Tours, whereas he did only 3-4 short pulls on the Madeleine until they overtook Voigt and Jens started working at the front alone. I guess, they needed each other approximately equally, especially if Evans would behave brutally like in 2011 in tt. it all depends..

 

[Publicus]

You're saying this as if Contador helped Andy to gain all the time in the mountains in 09 and 10 Tours, whereas he did only 3-4 short pulls on the Madeleine until they overtook Voigt and Jens started working at the front alone.

I'm saying this like I'm saying it. Andy is lost when AC isn't riding. In 09, well, we saw what happened there (look for a repeat in 2013). In 2010, they fought to a standstill--Andy couldn't shake him and worked with him to put time into the others. In 2011, he still wouldn't take the lead and push the envelope even though he knew Contador had a Giro in his legs and had lost over a minute plus in crashes.

That's the world I live in. Andy needs AC. AC doesn't need Andy. Perhaps Andy will break the chain this year and actually learn how to win a GT on the road (despite recent events, he still hasn't--but he now has one to his palmares).

 

[airstream]

I'm saying this like I'm saying it. Andy is lost when AC isn't riding. In 09, well, we saw what happened there (look for a repeat in 2013). In 2010, they fought to a standstill--Andy couldn't shake him and worked with him to put time into the others. In 2011, he still wouldn't take the lead and push the envelope even though he knew Contador had a Giro in his legs and had lost over a minute plus in crashes.
That's the world I live in. Andy needs AC. AC doesn't need Andy. Perhaps Andy will break the chain this year and actually learn how to win a GT on the road (despite recent events, he still hasn't--but he now has one to his palmares).

Well, you're reasoning from Contador's viewpoint and brush away everything you don't like. It doesn't matter how strong was Contador compared to Andy in any other Tour in discussion about TdF'12. What has the Giro to do with it? I bet, if Contador didn't ride the Giro, you'd write "Andy doesn't need Contador, cause if Bert go full blast, Andy will never catch him" something like that.

 

[Havetts]

I find it hard to draw the conclusion that Andy is lost when AC is not riding, under which I count riding the Giro aswell seeing Andy has only missed/had a 90% Contador only once. He didn't ride as aggressive as he shouldve, he thought the others probably were stronger and so didnt go full out.

But as this has only happened once to Andy, there is no reason to conclude it'll happen again, maybe it was a 'once-in-a-lifetime' mistake. Maybe Andy will ride tactically better under Bruyneel ( I know mentioning JB gives a very negative taste with some thoughts about the clinic and how that may affect him. ) Maybe Andy should've gone on Luz Ardiden and Frank shouldnt have broken away, him being stuck with his brother ahead of the road so he won't chase/go for him own. That sure as hell cost him time aswell.

But to attribute this all to Alberto? Goes far if you ask me. We will have to see after this years' Tour, cause in my opinion its way too early to draw a conclusion about Andy needing Berto.

 

[cineteq]

this forum isn't about acf's opinion tho

he's coming..

in reality, at this point im not sure who wins.

Yes, and he's coming angry!

ACF please take out either Cobo, Sanchez, VDB2 or Other, your pick in lieu of Gesink...NOW!!!

 

[Publicus]

Well, you're reasoning from Contador's viewpoint and brush away everything you don't like. It doesn't matter how strong was Contador compared to Andy in any other Tour in discussion about TdF'12. What has the Giro to do with it? I bet, if Contador didn't ride the Giro, you'd write "Andy doesn't need Contador, cause if Bert go full blast, Andy will never catch him" something like that.

What does the Giro have to do with 2011? It was a fact and a factor in how the race played out. Recall the Giro-Tour double hasn't been accomplished since 1998 and the top finisher, prior to Contador since then was Basso (31st in 2010).

So in 2010, Andy didn't need to work with Contador to get maximum time in the mountains over the other GC candidates because of the long TT? Really? And in 2009, he couldn't drop Contador (or stay with him when he decided to ride see Verbier, Arcalis) and again took advantage of the fact and simply rode with him (he stopped trying to shake him on Col d'Romme/Colombiere once it became obvious he couldn't; Same with Ventoux). In 2011 he was clearly the stronger, fresher rider because he hadn't ridden the Giro--frankly I think the consensus was it was his best year to win the overall ever (I know I thought that). Notwithstanding that he spent half his time watching and waiting for Contador to do something--the one exception being on Stage 18.

In 2012, barring injury to Cuddles and a few others, Andy will lose the TdF again.

EDIT: and for the record, when a fully healthy Contador attacks, no Andy can't stay with him (at least not for long). We won't get to test that statement until maybe 2013 (assuming AC is allowed to ride the TdF)

 

[Publicus]

I find it hard to draw the conclusion that Andy is lost when AC is not riding, under which I count riding the Giro aswell seeing Andy has only missed/had a 90% Contador only once. He didn't ride as aggressive as he shouldve, he thought the others probably were stronger and so didnt go full out.

But as this has only happened once to Andy, there is no reason to conclude it'll happen again, maybe it was a 'once-in-a-lifetime' mistake. Maybe Andy will ride tactically better under Bruyneel ( I know mentioning JB gives a very negative taste with some thoughts about the clinic and how that may affect him. ) Maybe Andy should've gone on Luz Ardiden and Frank shouldnt have broken away, him being stuck with his brother ahead of the road so he won't chase/go for him own. That sure as hell cost him time aswell.

But to attribute this all to Alberto? Goes far if you ask me. We will have to see after this years' Tour, cause in my opinion its way too early to draw a conclusion about Andy needing Berto.

Andy spends all of his time watching AC. Check 2009, 2010 and 2011. And his brother is definitely a hinderance to him getting ahead on the road. Hopefully Bruyneel breaks him of that habit, but I still don't think it will matter in 2012. Andy will again put in an attack and then stop and see what damage he's done (why am I the only one that remembers that from 2011?).