Now Alberto is out, who will win the 2012 Tour de France?

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

You guys really don't think the Shlecks will win. Huh. I mean, have you seen their team? It's like last year's team, only a step up in the mountains. I just can't see past Andy, really. He's the best (Contador aside) in tough stages with multiple climbs, and granted there aren't a ton of mountains in the Tour, but when there were, he only attacked on 2 stages each year for the last few years anyways.

I just see a scenario where, on stage 11 for example, Cancellara and Voigt set a monster tempo from the start all the way up the Madeleine, then as far as they can go up the Croix-de-Fer before Fuglsang/Zubeldia/Monfort or whoever take over until The bottom of the climb of la Toussuire. By the time they drop off, there are only 6-10 GC guys, and 4 of them are 'Shackers (Horner, Klodi, Schlecks). Follow up with crazy pace, Andy accelerates, gains 2 minutes, decimates guys like Wiggins who can't do hard stages. Unless it's like a Sastre 2008 thing where Frank or someone else goes up the road. Then repeat on stage 16 (with a descent, but remember the most decisive stage of the boring 2009 Tour was also that). The only guy with a chance to hang on is Evans, but he's 34 and Andy looked worse last year than in 2008-10. I don't think he's getting worse, so I would guess he wasn't at his best last year.

That's just my take, as neutral as I can possibly be. I'd love to see someone like Samu or Gesink step up, but I'm not optimistic.

i agreed with a lot of what you said, until this:

The only guy with a chance to hang on is Evans

while it is not inconcievable that he might hold on here or there, lost limited time and win in the TT etc. But the only guy? lol wut? It's asif people watched just last tour and consider nothing else. Never has evans, never has evans been riding away from the other contendors. For evans it has always been hold on and win in the itt.

Over the last few years we have seen various times where evans has been at a similar level (in mountains) to the other guys. Valverde, samu, gesink, mosqeura, basso, scarponi, menchov, nibbles, f.schleck etc all guys who have at least matched evans in the mountains in the last few years.

Yes he won a tour, and he did so with a lot of heart, determination, experience and even a bit of luck. He was no doubt a worthy winner, but he did not suddenly become a super climber. That is just false.

 

[gregrowlerson]

I understand the general consensus of Evans being the favourite, but I don't get how many believe that it's his race to lose. There are a LOT of riders that are very close to Cadel, and a lot went right for him last year. He is another year older, so is only the slight favourite over numerous others:

Menchov - has always been about equal with Evans as a GT rider. About the same age. Similar abilities in TT and climbs.
Sanchez - Not much worse in TT and a good climber, probably Evans' equal. A contender.
Scarponi - if he decides to skip the Giro following the CAS decision he will be a contender.
Andy - The best climber, difficult parcours for him, could still win.
Wiggins/Froome - hardest to predict. Could be a chance, but how strong was last years Vuelta?
Valverdje - No chance. Never thought much of his TT anyway.
Horner - No chance. Never done anything in a GT.
Leipheimer - A bit of a dangerman. Hard to see him hanging on in all the mountains, but certainly as good as any in the TT's. At least a podium threat.
Nibali - Maybe not quite good enough. Outside podium chance.
Rolland - Very strong last year and only young, so must be considered.
Gesink - Good climber, fairly young, unlucky last year, outside chance of victory.
VDB - Rate him a little lower than Gesink. Doubt he could win. Maybe top 5.
Kloden - Will ride for Andy. i can see him doing the donkey work on first MTF and being maybe a little stuffed even before the first ITT. Although it ain't his parcours, I'd like to see him go for the Giro - as the field could be a fairly weak one.
Frank - Should ride Giro but won't. No chance of a podium this year.
Martin - Top 5 chance if he focused on it, but will not want to risk the Olympics so no.
Cobo - A contender, but again, how strong was the Vuelta?

Have I missed anyone?

 

[karlboss]

You know that could in fact happen. Or, a more likely result, is after the first TT, Klodi and Horner are further up on GC than the Schleck Brothers. I'd be interested to see what happens then (though with Klodi, he's going to ride for anyone but himself, so really we are talking about Horner). Should be interesting.

Could only happen if
1. Andy is way off form
2. RSNT don't push the pace in the mountains

Can't see either happening, if RSNT don't push the pace, their race is over.

 

[La Pandera]

You guys really don't think the Shlecks will win. Huh. I mean, have you seen their team? It's like last year's team, only a step up in the mountains. I just can't see past Andy, really. He's the best (Contador aside) in tough stages with multiple climbs, and granted there aren't a ton of mountains in the Tour, but when there were, he only attacked on 2 stages each year for the last few years anyways.

I just see a scenario where, on stage 11 for example, Cancellara and Voigt set a monster tempo from the start all the way up the Madeleine, then as far as they can go up the Croix-de-Fer before Fuglsang/Zubeldia/Monfort or whoever take over until The bottom of the climb of la Toussuire. By the time they drop off, there are only 6-10 GC guys, and 4 of them are 'Shackers (Horner, Klodi, Schlecks). Follow up with crazy pace, Andy accelerates, gains 2 minutes, decimates guys like Wiggins who can't do hard stages. Unless it's like a Sastre 2008 thing where Frank or someone else goes up the road. Then repeat on stage 16 (with a descent, but remember the most decisive stage of the boring 2009 Tour was also that). The only guy with a chance to hang on is Evans, but he's 34 and Andy looked worse last year than in 2008-10. I don't think he's getting worse, so I would guess he wasn't at his best last year.

That's just my take, as neutral as I can possibly be. I'd love to see someone like Samu or Gesink step up, but I'm not optimistic.

I realize this is your fantasy scenario but I can't imagine any fantasy world where Andy gains 2 minutes on Samu. You reference the Alpe d'Huez stage of 2008 but the circumstances were such that the Spaniards in the mix weren't going to help anyone spoil Sastre's party. In the 2012 version Andy putting 2 minutes into riders like Samu, Menchov and Evans is simply not something I think will happen. Wiggins, for sure it could and likely will happen and frequently.

 

[mewmewmew13]

Evans
A. Schleck
Samu

I would love to see Samu or Nibs win it...don't think Nibs will YET...
Samu...everything would need to go right.
As far as Menchov being similar to Cadel, I think his talents may be similar but I don't think he has Cadel's consistency and extreme drive to go that extra terrestrial mile when the chips are down...

Levi..
Horner..
Gesink..
meh

Valverde hmmm will have some excellent moments but overall don't think so..top 5 yes.

 

[frandy]

Christina Watches to get invited
Micheal rassmusen will win but will fail a test and Andy Schleck will win his
2ND GT and will then get the blame for finishing 2nd as a clean athlete to
a DOPER

 

[Llewellyn]

Evans for me. Andy Schleck has "won" the only Tour he's ever going to win

 

[blaxland]

Without Contador then Evans would have to be my next logical choice.He has the experience to win and self confidence in knowing how to win this.(TDF)

 

[42x16ss]

I see very close 4 way shootout between Evans, Menchov, Samu and Andy. To close to call IMO.

The rest of the top 10 will come from Frank, Wiggins, Nibali, Gesink, VDB, Kreuziger (how has he not been mentioned yet???), Rolland, Garmin's ever consistent top 10 finisher, Cunego and Leipheimer.

Just my opinion but Valverde will need a GT in the legs before he even starts to be a threat.

 

[orangerider]

Evans
Menchov

followed by some time gap with Levi picking up the podium.

Levi is experienced, doesn't need to nurse another rider, a good consistent TT'er and can hang in the high mountains far better than Wiggins ever well. Probably will hang up the hat and let Phinney do the TT for the Olympics so Levi can end his season there.

Menchov will be far more motivated now that Contador is not an entrant, but is still hindered by his clumbsiness on the bike.

Rolland ... an uncertainty for sure but I just don't see the guy dominating this year. stage wins probably, maybe an early yellow.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Evans
Menchov

followed by some time gap with Levi picking up the podium.

Levi is experienced, doesn't need to nurse another rider, a good consistent TT'er and can hang in the high mountains far better than Wiggins ever well. Probably will hang up the hat and let Phinney do the TT for the Olympics so Levi can end his season there.

Menchov will be far more motivated now that Contador is not an entrant, but is still hindered by his clumbsiness on the bike.

Rolland ... an uncertainty for sure but I just don't see the guy dominating this year. stage wins probably, maybe an early yellow.

Leipheimer said he'd peak for California, though. Can he really peak for Cali, the Tour AND the Olympics?

 

[Dancing On The Pedals]

I just see a scenario where, on stage 11 for example, Cancellara and Voigt set a monster tempo from the start all the way up the Madeleine, then as far as they can go up the Croix-de-Fer before Fuglsang/Zubeldia/Monfort or whoever take over until The bottom of the climb of la Toussuire. By the time they drop off, there are only 6-10 GC guys, and 4 of them are 'Shackers (Horner, Klodi, Schlecks). Follow up with crazy pace, Andy accelerates, gains 2 minutes, decimates guys like Wiggins who can't do hard stages. Unless it's like a Sastre 2008 thing where Frank or someone else goes up the road. Then repeat on stage 16 (with a descent, but remember the most decisive stage of the boring 2009 Tour was also that).

For sure Radioschleck will drill up the climbs. They have to if they want any chance of shedding the other contenders, and for all his faults, we know that JB can organise a team to nail it up a mountain. I do quite like the idea that when/if they start pinging riders off the front to force Evans and the others to react, the one that gets away is Kloden/Horner/maybe even Frank - if someone on that team other than Andy is in yellow will they switch priorities?

However, any of the other contenders with half a brain will probably realise that this will be the Schleck's tactic, and no doubt be ready to deal with it.

 

[Duartista]

Leipheimer said he'd peak for California, though. Can he really peak for Cali, the Tour AND the Olympics?

When did he say that? He was quoted in L'Equipe a week or so ago saying that he would be putting everything into the TDF this year as he sees it as his last chance.

 

[Winterfold]

Why will RS want to drill it up the climbs? Other than that is what JB knows?

What suited Lance does not suit Schlecklette, and may well suit Wiggo/Froome, and Cuddles, and Leechheimer, Menchov and...

I don't see how setting a high steady pace on Tour style gradients will beat the rouleur-climbers.

(See that stage in the Dauphine where EBH beasted it)

They will have to try and break the tempo to win. Without Contador there, I don't see them doing it, Evans and Wiggins both know what they have to do and are cool enough to do it. If Wiggins only loses 1'20" on Contadors best time up Angli-feckin-ru when he is coming back from injury then I just cannot see a high tempo Discovery style approach cracking him on lovely smooth Alpine gradients.

But why let facts and results get in the way of forum dogma? Wiggo was never going to win the Dauphine and would never beat Scarponi, Anton, Rodrigues, Nibali up Angliru.

 

[Kvinto]

Good to hear it

I hope it isn't just a polite way to convey sarcasm caused by my statement posted in the thread where you have desperately defended Menchov's Tour chances:

http://forum.cyclingnews.com/showpost.php?p=767944&postcount=183

because i don't give up my point

OK, look, you wrote "Andy needs Contador", apparently implying that Contador's contribution into Andy's 2nd places is very significant, right? I disagree. In 2010 Andy attacked himself and it wasn't a collaboration in the true sense of the word, as Schleck did 95% of work and almost entire attacking initiative was from him. What was the Contador's role there? If Contador hadn't have participated Andy would have dropped all the opponents.

True, but you miss one factor i find important in this case. Andy didn't receive benefits from collaboration with Contanor (it's was hardly a collaboration) but in psychological aspect Contador was the man to beat in mountains, the only true mountain competitor to Andy in the Tour 2010. Such a competitor who is better in the time trialling forces you to ride faster (ie to increase advantage over the others), and the aim of dropping him from your wheel is always a stronger incentive than seconds/minutes of gap which you get to know from the race radio or motorcycle in front of you.

“I’m satisfied with the stage win but I also wanted to turn white into yellow but unfortunately it wasn’t possible. I really tried hard, you have to believe me about that. I changed rhythm and I tried everything but I think we’re on the same level on the climbs. Alberto attacked and I could go with him – it was a quick response – but in the end he didn’t sprint to win the stage because I did the most work. I have a lot of respect for that, it shows that he’s a great champion." (Andy Schleck after the Tourmalet stage in 2010)

In the Tour 2012 Andy will lack someone like Contador mainly for these reasons

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Denis Menchov I think will be the hot contender when everyone looks at Evans & "The Little Boss " (cringe). I certainly hope so.

Hoping the Condor is in the mix, certainly have good feelings about that .

All this talk about Contador, Riis, Valverde and anti-doping and you support ...............Menchov?!

My god, you are a trip, Havetts.

When did he say that? He was quoted in L'Equipe a week or so ago saying that he would be putting everything into the TDF this year as he sees it as his last chance.

edit: it was last December

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/leipheimer-sets-targets-for-2012

Looks like he changed his mind. Good for him and the team.

 

[auscyclefan94]

if you're gonna rate vandenbroeck, wiggins and nibali then gesink should have been in this poll

Err, Nibali has won a GT and has been 2nd in another. This course suits Wiggins a lot more than Gesink and considering the poll results I was right to consider Wiggins over Gesink as an option. You may have a point about Van den Broeck but even I could see that the way he was looking in last years tour, he looked like he could have been a major thread therefore he deserves a mention.

this forum isn't about acf's opinion tho

he's coming..

in reality, at this point im not sure who wins.

Yes, cuming over the Dutch Mafia's faces!

 

[auscyclefan94]

OK, look, you wrote "Andy needs Contador", apparently implying that Contador's contribution into Andy's 2nd places is very significant, right? I disagree. In 2010 Andy attacked himself and it wasn't a collaboration in the true sense of the word, as Schleck did 95% of work and almost entire attacking initiative was from him. What was the Contador's role there? If Contador hadn't have participated Andy would have dropped all the opponents.
In regard to 2009, took advantage from the fact of what? Could you explain? He gained zero advantage from work with Contador in that Tour. I can't even count negligible 10-15 sec over Nibali and Sastre at the Verbier.

LOL, this post is amusing. Some massive exaggerations here and narrow minded comments. Did you watch the tour de france stages to Luz Ardiden, Plateau de beille or Ax 3 Domaines in 2010? Clearly not.

 

[karlboss]

Why will RS want to drill it up the climbs? Other than that is what JB knows?

What suited Lance does not suit Schlecklette, and may well suit Wiggo/Froome, and Cuddles, and Leechheimer, Menchov and...

I don't see how setting a high steady pace on Tour style gradients will beat the rouleur-climbers.

(See that stage in the Dauphine where EBH beasted it)

They will have to try and break the tempo to win. Without Contador there, I don't see them doing it, Evans and Wiggins both know what they have to do and are cool enough to do it. If Wiggins only loses 1'20" on Contadors best time up Angli-feckin-ru when he is coming back from injury then I just cannot see a high tempo Discovery style approach cracking him on lovely smooth Alpine gradients.

But why let facts and results get in the way of forum dogma? Wiggo was never going to win the Dauphine and would never beat Scarponi, Anton, Rodrigues, Nibali up Angliru.

If a motorbike set a pace up a MTF and the riders can draft. This motorbike holds a steady pace. Which rider in your opinion holds on the longest?

I say the best climber, regardless of style of climber.

 

[airstream]

I just cannot see a high tempo Discovery style approach cracking him on lovely smooth Alpine gradients.

In Andy's case a superclimber doesn't need steep gradients to drop everyone, if only it's not Pantani or Heras. Schleck has a very good classic background by virtue of his achievement on LBL, at least, that's why hes able to get away from them even on 5-6%. Peragudes and Toussuire have sections up to 9-10%. In addition it's almost inevitable Schleck will attack in advance on one of the stages in the Pyrenees. Though I agree most of the things dependon if Evans will maintain his 2011 level, a climbing level primarily.

LOL, this post is amusing. Some massive exaggerations here and narrow minded comments. Did you watch the tour de france stages to Luz Ardiden, Plateau de beille or Ax 3 Domaines in 2010? Clearly not

Wow, strange you're not saying that Schleck's Plateau de Beille fail is Evans' merit exceptionally. Regardless of nominal strength every rider has good and bad days. Nowadays there no riders who are ready to destroy everyone on all mountain stages.

True, but you miss one factor i find important in this case. Andy didn't receive benefits from collaboration with Contanor (it's was hardly a collaboration) but in psychological aspect Contador was the man to beat in mountains, the only true mountain competitor to Andy in the Tour 2010. Such a competitor who is better in the time trialling forces you to ride faster (ie to increase advantage over the others), and the aim of dropping him from your wheel is always a stronger incentive than seconds/minutes of gap which you get to know from the race radio or motorcycle in front of you.

What's the difference whether it's Contador or anyone else, if they don't help? In 2010 he had Contador to beat, this year it's necessary to crush all the guys on the climbs to take a chance to win and all of them will make him ride faster. I think, Andy solved the problem of dropping only first 5-6km of the Tourmalet (Ax-3 - defense; Madeleine - getting away from TT'ers, not from Contador) after the move. Then he got - needlessly.

 

[greenedge]

Cadel, then ( Samu, Wiggins, Andy, Menchov ) battling it out for podium.

 

[ferryman]

If a motorbike set a pace up a MTF and the riders can draft. This motorbike holds a steady pace. Which rider in your opinion holds on the longest?

I say the best climber, regardless of style of climber.

EBH beasting up the Dauphine with Wiggins in tow is a world away from an attack from a rider like Schleck, who we all know is the best climber in this year's Tour. When Andy decides to go this year, it will be chaos behind. It may not be enough for him to win it but Wiggins will need more than EBH (who will not be there anyway at that point) to counter or even stay in touch.

 

[cineteq]

You may have a point about Van den Broeck but even I could see that the way he was looking in last years tour, he looked like he could have been a major thread therefore he deserves a mention.

This is so weak, I think you're confused with Vannedert. Btw, Gesink was looking really solid before the crash.

 

[El Pistolero]

This is so weak, I think you're confused with Vannedert. Btw, Gesink was looking really solid before the crash.

Is there a stage where Gesink didn't crash?

 

[Kvinto]

What's the difference whether it's Contador or anyone else, if they don't help? In 2010 he had Contador to beat, this year it's necessary to crush all the guys on the climbs to take a chance to win and all of them will make him ride faster. I think, Andy solved the problem of dropping only first 5-6km of the Tourmalet (Ax-3 - defense; Madeleine - getting away from TT'ers, not from Contador) after the move. Then he got - needlessly.

There is difference, you just don't get it. You seem to underestimate the psychological aspect of the sport taking into account only physical part of it. The problem being that it's an easier aim just to drop someone you get to see than to drop by certain time as well as it's easier to give your best having a strong rival who would be a good indicator of your own strength. Dropping Contador (ie dropping the best) on Morzine-Avoriaz by some insignificant 10sec gave Andy confidence which the winning against anybody else by a minute would have never gave. I even don't know how to explain