Now Alberto is out, who will win the 2012 Tour de France?

[La Pandera]

Cuddles is the obvious choice and I voted for him, but I think that writing off Andy's chances is a bit premature. With Contador gone, there will be little questioning his supremacy in the mountains, and he should ride a little more confidently. Also, love him or hate him, Bruyneel is good with tactics and I don't think he'll have the Schlecks waiting around this year.

What it will really come down to is Evan's climbing form. If he climbs as well as he did last year than he could concede minimal time to A. Schleck and then destroy him in the TTs, and win again. But he was climbing rather exceptionally last year, and it might not be repeatable. That was also with the Schleck's tactics failing on every stage but one.

Bruyneel's tactical genius is overrated. When you have the strongest rider as he had with Contador and Armstrong, he looks brilliant. When he doesn't well look at the results of the years he took a team to the Tour with aspirations:

2006-Now who was their protected rider? Was it Hincapie? Pop? I can't remember because neither of them was a factor in the gc.

2010-After bailing on the generation's best stage racer to support an aging Armstrong/Leipheimer/Kloden/Horner, likely in hopes of putting Contador in his place for his 2009 insolence, it really didn't work out too swell. They did get the team classification and got to show off some fancy special Livestrong kit on the final day in Paris. Two snaps for that!

2011-Crash central. Very little went right. Little to talk about.

Now he has the two-headed "tactical genius" that is the Schleck brothers. Along with Kloden and Horner. All have personal aspirations. Kloden and Horner are nearing the end of their careers with this being their last chances for Tour glory. I can see Kloden willingly following orders at the expense of his own interests but Horner? He's to me the wildcard. He's of the belief that he has serious, serious unfinished business at the Tour and that business isn't holding Andy's hand and mentoring him in the ways of the cycling Jedi. Riding a wave of confidence in his abilities in the grand tours Horner I think may be a bit hard for Bruyneel to bridle, especially when he sees first hand what dopes the Schlecks are. Tethered to one another like toddlers tied together on a field trip, how can Horner respect himself for sacrificing what may be his final chance at Tour success if he's acting as valet for the cycling versions of Princes Philip and Harry, cycling's royalty?

@at Airstream
One only has to look at this past Tour. Only when his spot on the podium seemed lost, and this as a result of his sketchy descending on treacherous roads (that his opponents were apparently much more courageous in navigating), did he take it upon himself to really commint to an attack, this being not necessarily a tactical masterwork, but essentially a move of desparation. The thing about this venture is that it may have opened his eyes to his own potential. It was epic and a throwback to eras past and was potentially a precursor to what it will take for him to win the 2012 Tour.

The biggest drawback is Bruyneel, who is conservative to a fault. The days of the big blue train are gone. He doesn't have a rider that excells in TT's and the mountains, unless they're going to pin their hopes on Kloden and we know how he responds to the pressure of starting the Tour as the team's leader--not very well. Additionally Bruyneel has a habit of getting greedy and is a bit hung up on having to "dominate" his opponents with his team's show of overall strength. Wanting to sweep the podium as he did in 2009 was a fine example of this. Had Contador kow-towed to all of Bruyneel's orders and potentially, never challenged Armstrong the way he knew he could, it's quite possible we would be talking about Andy already having a Tour under his belt from 2009. Should Bruyneel be thinking that he can get multiple riders on the podium of the 2012 Tour as he hoped to in 2009, he will be IMO setting himself and his team up for failure.

In the end this Tour is tailor made for Evans. He can minimize his losses to Andy, Frank, Samu in the mountains, putting time into Wiggins and take it all back plus some in the TT's. His primary threat will be an in form Menchov.

 

[The Hitch]

Yes, and he's coming angry!

ACF please take out either Cobo, Sanchez, VDB2 or Other, your pick in lieu of Gesink...NOW!!!

I think everyone would agree that Gesink should be substituted for Nibali or Cobo and Sanchez should remain.

 

[cineteq]

I think everyone would agree that Gesink should be substituted for Nibali or Cobo and Sanchez should remain.

LOL You're so predictable, that's why we love you Hitch!!!!

 

[airstream]

So in 2010, Andy didn't need to work with Contador to get maximum time in the mountains over the other GC candidates because of the long TT? Really? And in 2009, he couldn't drop Contador (or stay with him when he decided to ride see Verbier, Arcalis) and again took advantage of the fact and simply rode with him (he stopped trying to shake him on Col d'Romme/Colombiere once it became obvious he couldn't; Same with Ventoux). In 2011 he was clearly the stronger, fresher rider because he hadn't ridden the Giro--frankly I think the consensus was it was his best year to win the overall ever (I know I thought that). Notwithstanding that he spent half his time watching and waiting for Contador to do something--the one exception being on Stage 18.

In 2012, barring injury to Cuddles and a few others, Andy will lose the TdF again.

OK, look, you wrote "Andy needs Contador", apparently implying that Contador's contribution into Andy's 2nd places is very significant, right? I disagree. In 2010 Andy attacked himself and it wasn't a collaboration in the true sense of the word, as Schleck did 95% of work and almost entire attacking initiative was from him. What was the Contador's role there? If Contador hadn't have participated Andy would have dropped all the opponents.
In regard to 2009, took advantage from the fact of what? Could you explain? He gained zero advantage from work with Contador in that Tour. I can't even count negligible 10-15 sec over Nibali and Sastre at the Verbier.

 

[cineteq]

Bruyneel's tactical genius is overrated. When you have the strongest rider as he had with Contador and Armstrong, he looks brilliant. When he doesn't well look at the results of the years he took a team to the Tour with aspirations:

2006-Now who was their protected rider? Was it Hincapie? Pop? I can't remember because neither of them was a factor in the gc.

2010-After bailing on the generation's best stage racer to support an aging Armstrong/Leipheimer/Kloden/Horner, likely in hopes of putting Contador in his place for his 2009 insolence, it really didn't work out too swell. They did get the team classification and got to show off some fancy special Livestrong kit on the final day in Paris. Two snaps for that!

2011-Crash central. Very little went right. Little to talk about.

Now he has the two-headed "tactical genius" that is the Schleck brothers. Along with Kloden and Horner. All have personal aspirations. Kloden and Horner are nearing the end of their careers with this being their last chances for Tour glory. I can see Kloden willingly following orders at the expense of his own interests but Horner? He's to me the wildcard. He's of the belief that he has serious, serious unfinished business at the Tour and that business isn't holding Andy's hand and mentoring him in the ways of the cycling Jedi. Riding a wave of confidence in his abilities in the grand tours Horner I think may be a bit hard for Bruyneel to bridle, especially when he sees first hand what dopes the Schlecks are. Tethered to one another like toddlers tied together on a field trip, how can Horner respect himself for sacrificing what may be his final chance at Tour success if he's acting as valet for the cycling versions of Princes Philip and Harry, cycling's royalty?

@at Airstream
One only has to look at this past Tour. Only when his spot on the podium seemed lost, and this as a result of his sketchy descending on treacherous roads (that his opponents were apparently much more courageous in navigating), did he take it upon himself to really commint to an attack, this being not necessarily a tactical masterwork, but essentially a move of desparation. The thing about this venture is that it may have opened his eyes to his own potential. It was epic and a throwback to eras past and was potentially a precursor to what it will take for him to win the 2012 Tour.

The biggest drawback is Bruyneel, who is conservative to a fault. The days of the big blue train are gone. He doesn't have a rider that excells in TT's and the mountains, unless they're going to pin their hopes on Kloden and we know how he responds to the pressure of starting the Tour as the team's leader--not very well. Additionally Bruyneel has a habit of getting greedy and is a bit hung up on having to "dominate" his opponents with his team's show of overall strength. Wanting to sweep the podium as he did in 2009 was a fine example of this. Had Contador kow-towed to all of Bruyneel's orders and potentially, never challenged Armstrong the way he knew he could, it's quite possible we would be talking about Andy already having a Tour under his belt from 2009. Should Bruyneel be thinking that he can get multiple riders on the podium of the 2012 Tour as he hoped to in 2009, he will be IMO setting himself and his team up for failure.

In the end this Tour is tailor made for Evans. He can minimize his losses to Andy, Frank, Samu in the mountains, putting time into Wiggins and take it all back plus some in the TT's. His primary threat will be an in form Menchov.

Great post, to summarize you said: Bruyneel + Schlecks = Fail
Agree Evans has the advantage, but disagree any of the foes you mentioned, will be the ones challenging him. Those are the usual suspects, meet the new suspects: Nibali, Gesink, Valverde, Horner and Klöden

 

[airstream]

Even tactical genius wouldn't have been able to create a podium finisher out of the material JB worked with in 2006 and 2011.

 

[La Pandera]

Great post, to summarize you said: Bruyneel + Schlecks = Fail
Agree Evans has the advantage, but disagree any of the foes you mentioned, will be the ones challenging him. Those are the usual suspects, meet the new suspects: Nibali, Gesink, Valverde, Horner and Klöden

Nibali, Gesink and Kloden aren't consistently good enough in the mountains to be real threats, and Nibali and Gesink aren't strong enough in both (TT) to really be factors. Valverde is a bit of a wildcard but IMO it takes a year for a rider to get their TT form back and he wasn't really a world-beater in the discipline prior to his "hiatus". As I said the politics in Nissan/Shack/Trek will be Kloden's downfall in addition to his being more of team player than the rest of his team's principles. If Horner rides for himself, ignoring Johann's yelling in his ear, he could do quite well, and I'm certainly hoping for as much drama as he can potentially create. The high pitched wailing that we are likely to hear will be coming from the Schleck's direction. Johann better have his pacifiers well stocked cuz there's going to be a whole lotta thumbsucking going on!

 

[karlboss]

Obvious RSNT versus the rest. Under Bruyneel, It's not hard to see a super strong mountain train working everyone over on the Mountain stages ascents and decents.
After the alps and the first TT, we'll see a match up between Schleck and "insert TTer/s here"(probably Evans). There'll be pretenders, but it'll really only be 2. Schleck won't have enough time to back himself for the pyrenees and TT and will try a suicidal attack ala galibier on 16. The tters will remain in the safety of the peloton and set their teams to the front. End result like 2011 Andy takes time but not enough and said TTer (probably Evans) takes the time on the last TT.

However Sanchez will go with Schleck on the suicidal break win the decent and will have enough time to defend in the TT.

You read it here first

 

[karlboss]

What I'm really looking forward to, is RSNT send Zubeldia/Kloden/Horner/Voight/Cancellara/ forward in the break to help an Andy attack, and end up with a tour winning advantage, and Andy gets the call not to attack...oops.

 

[La Pandera]

Even tactical genius wouldn't have been able to create a podium finisher out of the material JB worked with in 2006 and 2011.

I'll concede 2006 although Pop had shown much potential as a youngster at the Giro before joining up with Bruyneel and as such was being drummed up as a potential challenger (not by me) even by many in the media. Of course in hindsight it all seemed ludicrous. The Hincapie hype was such that they were comparing him to Indurain (similar height/size, good TT, decent in the mountains) but honestly, how many fans other than the diehard Postal/Discovery/Livestrong one's actually believed it?

Now the 2011 crew, if you eliminate the misfortune, one could see Kloden or Leipheimer on the podium instead Frank Schleck, whose podium presence was a direct result of the elimination of much of the competition, Contador's misfortune (crashes and resulting injury) and Giro legs, not to mention Sanchez's early misfortune and time loss. Thus the material wasn't that substandard but the end results are as they are, be it due to bad luck or consistent bad positioning in the peloton, which could be attributed to poor tactics.

 

[La Pandera]

What I'm really looking forward to, is RSNT send Zubeldia/Kloden/Horner/Voight/Cancellara/ forward in the break to help an Andy attack, and end up with a tour winning advantage, and Andy gets the call not to attack...oops.

That's exactly the kind of drama I'm looking forward to. If you think they're crying now, wait until July.

 

[airstream]

And after such secret wishes you get surprised why hes afraid of attacking. He just feels everything.

 

[La Pandera]

And after such secret wishes you get surprised why hes afraid of attacking. He just feels everything.

A little inter-team power struggle is always fine drama. Look at Hinault/Lemond, Contador/Armstrong, Froome/Wiggins....oops that hasn't happened yet!

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Nibali, Gesink and Kloden aren't consistently good enough in the mountains to be real threats, and Nibali and Gesink aren't strong enough in both (TT) to really be factors. Valverde is a bit of a wildcard but IMO it takes a year for a rider to get their TT form back and he wasn't really a world-beater in the discipline prior to his "hiatus". As I said the politics in Nissan/Shack/Trek will be Kloden's downfall in addition to his being more of team player than the rest of his team's principles. If Horner rides for himself, ignoring Johann's yelling in his ear, he could do quite well, and I'm certainly hoping for as much drama as he can potentially create. The high pitched wailing that we are likely to hear will be coming from the Schleck's direction. Johann better have his pacifiers well stocked cuz there's going to be a whole lotta thumbsucking going on!

gesink's consistancey is actual one of his strongest qualities. Barring crashes and mishap consistancy in the mounatins wouldn't be to much of an issue
mixing it with the tt on the other hand.. I don't think gesink would be able to get enough time in the mountains to contest the victory.

If fully fit I'm confident he could contest a podium tho. Maybe not with this much tt, I dunno

 

[Publicus]

OK, look, you wrote "Andy needs Contador", apparently implying that Contador's contribution into Andy's 2nd places is very significant, right? I disagree. In 2010 Andy attacked himself and it wasn't a collaboration in the true sense of the word, as Schleck did 95% of work and almost entire attacking initiative was from him. What was the Contador's role there? If Contador hadn't have participated Andy would have dropped all the opponents.
In regard to 2009, took advantage from the fact of what? Could you explain? He gained zero advantage from work with Contador in that Tour. I can't even count negligible 10-15 sec over Nibali and Sastre at the Verbier.

You know. You're right. Andy is right awesome and Contador's presence and willingness to take the initiative has had zero effect on Andy gaining time on the other GC candidates. It is a wonder that he's gained a reputation for initiating half-hearted attacks and generally lacking killer instinct enough to win a GT on the road. I sincerely apologize for having had the temerity to challenge this great champion.

 

[danjo007]

sorry! i must have been asleep last year. i thought alberto WAS in the TDF, and he didnt win !?!?!?!?

OP = master of assumptions! and we all know what that says about the person!

 

[Publicus]

What I'm really looking forward to, is RSNT send Zubeldia/Kloden/Horner/Voight/Cancellara/ forward in the break to help an Andy attack, and end up with a tour winning advantage, and Andy gets the call not to attack...oops.

You know that could in fact happen. Or, a more likely result, is after the first TT, Klodi and Horner are further up on GC than the Schleck Brothers. I'd be interested to see what happens then (though with Klodi, he's going to ride for anyone but himself, so really we are talking about Horner). Should be interesting.

 

[The Hitch]

gesink's consistancey is actual one of his strongest qualities. Barring crashes and mishap consistancy in the mounatins wouldn't be to much of an issue
mixing it with the tt on the other hand.. I don't think gesink would be able to get enough time in the mountains to contest the victory.

If fully fit I'm confident he could contest a podium tho. Maybe not with this much tt, I dunno

Gesink will probably finish with the heads of state barring Andy (when he solos away) on every mountain stage or even win one. Problem is, when the tt comes even if he does well and gets a top 15, your going to have Wiggins Menchov and Evans in the top 6 or 7.

If the mountains play a major role he might finish ahead of Wiggins and even Menchov, but then Andy will be in the mix too.

Though yes he can podium. Probably has a better chance than Valverde to be honest since I think hes a better climber and in a gt time trial might even beat Valverde.

 

[Publicus]

sorry! i must have been asleep last year. i thought alberto WAS in the TDF, and he didnt win !?!?!?!?

OP = master of assumptions! and we all know what that says about the person!

Tis true. Alberto Contador did not win last year. Not a single race in fact. Hasn't won a race since early 2010 if my memory serves correctly.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Gesink will probably finish with the heads of state barring Andy (when he solos away) on every mountain stage or even win one. Problem is, when the tt comes even if he does well and gets a top 15, your going to have Wiggins Menchov and Evans in the top 6 or 7.

If the mountains play a major role he might finish ahead of Wiggins and even Menchov, but then Andy will be in the mix too.

Though yes he can podium. Probably has a better chance than Valverde to be honest since I think hes a better climber and in a gt time trial might even beat Valverde.

Basically.

I am not buying into the wiggans hype btw. TT climbers like wiggo do well on courses with lesser climbing (a la vuelta where the last climb is generally the only climbing) where they can do tempo climbing; vuelta was perfect for wiggo really. I see him struggling a lot in some of the mountainious stages at the tour.

 

[airstream]

You know. You're right. Andy is right awesome and Contador's presence and willingness to take the initiative has had zero effect on Andy gaining time on the other GC candidates. It is a wonder that he's gained a reputation for initiating half-hearted attacks and generally lacking killer instinct enough to win a GT on the road. I sincerely apologize for having had the temerity to challenge this great champion.

Oh...It's not about real or backdated champions. Just how Contador affected Schleck's intention to attack in the Tour'10 and nothing more, because it's your theory "Andy needs him". In my opinion, he affected in no way. What's the point to take my posts like sort of personal challenge?

 

[Publicus]

Oh...It's not about real or backdated champions. Just how Contador affected Schleck's intention to attack in the Tour'10 and nothing more, because it's your theory "Andy needs him". In my opinion, he affected in no way. What's the point to take my posts like sort of personal challenge?

I've conceded the point. If there is one thing about Andy we can all agree on, he always comes to race his own race. It's about winning for Andy, not beating another man.

 

[Swede1]

Basically.

I am not buying into the wiggans hype btw. TT climbers like wiggo do well on courses with lesser climbing (a la vuelta where the last climb is generally the only climbing) where they can do tempo climbing; vuelta was perfect for wiggo really. I see him struggling a lot in some of the mountainious stages at the tour.

I kinda agree. I think he will do pretty well, but probably not podium. maybe top 5. Even though there are a lot of TTs i still dont see him beating the schlecks (andy at least) or obviously Evans, even Menchov. I think he will be near samu and gesink and nibbles.

 

[skidmark]

You guys really don't think the Shlecks will win. Huh. I mean, have you seen their team? It's like last year's team, only a step up in the mountains. I just can't see past Andy, really. He's the best (Contador aside) in tough stages with multiple climbs, and granted there aren't a ton of mountains in the Tour, but when there were, he only attacked on 2 stages each year for the last few years anyways.

I just see a scenario where, on stage 11 for example, Cancellara and Voigt set a monster tempo from the start all the way up the Madeleine, then as far as they can go up the Croix-de-Fer before Fuglsang/Zubeldia/Monfort or whoever take over until The bottom of the climb of la Toussuire. By the time they drop off, there are only 6-10 GC guys, and 4 of them are 'Shackers (Horner, Klodi, Schlecks). Follow up with crazy pace, Andy accelerates, gains 2 minutes, decimates guys like Wiggins who can't do hard stages. Unless it's like a Sastre 2008 thing where Frank or someone else goes up the road. Then repeat on stage 16 (with a descent, but remember the most decisive stage of the boring 2009 Tour was also that). The only guy with a chance to hang on is Evans, but he's 34 and Andy looked worse last year than in 2008-10. I don't think he's getting worse, so I would guess he wasn't at his best last year.

That's just my take, as neutral as I can possibly be. I'd love to see someone like Samu or Gesink step up, but I'm not optimistic.

 

[cineteq]

If Horner rides for himself, ignoring Johann's yelling in his ear, he could do quite well, and I'm certainly hoping for as much drama as he can potentially create. The high pitched wailing that we are likely to hear will be coming from the Schleck's direction. Johann better have his pacifiers well stocked cuz there's going to be a whole lotta thumbsucking going on!

Love to see Horner ahead of the rest of RSNT team after the 1st rest day. Schlecks won't be riding for him, especially after what Sastre did to them So...it's not gonna be pretty

Btw, I mentioned Nibali and Valverde because of their smarts, they have the X factor!