Now Alberto is out, who will win the 2012 Tour de France?

[El Pistolero]

Riding for Rhis doesn't say anything about doping. Riding for Mapei-Quickstep in the early 2000s however...

 

[roundabout]

Evans rode 1 full season with Mapei.

Might as well list Telekom and Lotto then.

 

[palmerq]

leave out the doping talk guys, this is not the place for it

 

[orangerider]

Not sure why Wiggins has so many votes? Menchov is far more accomplished and even Levi can outclimb Wiggins on those high mountains. Seriously, I see a coalition between Evans, Menchov, and Levi who will ride a punishing tempo that will crack Wiggins, making him lose heaps of time.

 

[auscyclefan94]

This is so weak, I think you're confused with Vannedert. Btw, Gesink was looking really solid before the crash.

No I am not. Van den Broeck has showed more than Gesink going into the Tour and Gesink was dropped the 1st time he hit the climbs were as that is not the case for Van den Broeck of which even his coaches said he had the form of his career. Gesink wasn't looking as solid as some of the other contenders including Vandenbroeck.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

No I am not. Van den Broeck has showed more than Gesink going into the Tour and Gesink was dropped the 1st time he hit the climbs were as that is not the case for Van den Broeck of which even his coaches said he had the form of his career. Gesink wasn't looking as solid as some of the other contenders including Vandenbroeck.

based on what?? gesink looked super lean. (i'm not saying he would have done such and such but what you are saying is baseless speculation)
VDB having form of his life, and his coach said so, NO WAI!!

nothing more then speculation.

PS. VDB and gesink had different approaches to the tour, surely you recognise this.

 

[SiAp1984]

I still wait for Denis Menchov to do a really strong Tour. He has the potential, he knows how to win GTs, he has a strong team and - at his best - he is a really strong climber and time-triallist. Would like to see him win this year.

My secret hopes are on Klöden. He showed last year that he still could keep up with the best up to his chute. And the lots of ITT-kilometers could serve him best... But he might well be just too old.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Schleck rarely gets enough credit around here for his super dooper ride on Tourmalet in 2010. He was the one dragging Contador away from the rest. Not sure that Andy is too AC conscious, but can definitely worry too much about his brother. That will need to change if he is to win in 2012.

 

[Woody22]

As an Evans fan the rider I am most concerned about is Levi.

Very strong TT and if he arrives in top shape, and he has said that he will, then I think he can hang around on the climbs. He might lose some seconds on the shorter final hill finishes but with this being his final shot, he will be highly motivated.

I will be putting a few dollars on him.

 

[Forunculo]

As an Evans fan the rider I am most concerned about is Levi.

Very strong TT and if he arrives in top shape, and he has said that he will, then I think he can hang around on the climbs. He might lose some seconds on the shorter final hill finishes but with this being his final shot, he will be highly motivated.

I will be putting a few dollars on him.

In my opinion you must be more concerned about Cadel's team as favourite his team has to play the rol, it's them to lose all people think. No team will respond and help BMC against any attack in normal situation.

 

[auscyclefan94]

based on what?? gesink looked super lean. (i'm not saying he would have done such and such but what you are saying is baseless speculation)
VDB having form of his life, and his coach said so, NO WAI!!

nothing more then speculation.

PS. VDB and gesink had different approaches to the tour, surely you recognise this.

My God, you are sensitive. Based on that VDB was more impressive at the Dauphine and in the opening stages of the TDF indicates that. Of course what would have really eventuated is unknown but if anyone looked better it would have to of been VDB.

 

[Woody22]

In my opinion you must be more concerned about Cadel's team as favourite his team has to play the rol, it's them to lose all people think. No team will respond and help BMC against any attack in normal situation.

Yeah, that will be an issue. I expect Martin or Fabian to be in yellow after the prolouge so their teams will most likely look to defend it for a while.

I thought BMC did a great job last year delivering Evans to the foot of the climbs in a good position but they were still pretty useless when the climbs started. Maybe TJVG can help out a bit more this year.

But Evans will not have it as good as he did last year. He will be attacked constatly with the view to having him all alone early on, just like back in 2008 when CSC werew so dominant.

Anyway, if it doesn't go well for him this year at least I can always fall back to the comforting thought that he has won the Tour, something I didn't really think was ever going to happen.

 

[theyoungest]

My God, you are sensitive. Based on that VDB was more impressive at the Dauphine and in the opening stages of the TDF indicates that. Of course what would have really eventuated is unknown but if anyone looked better it would have to of been VDB.

On the Mur de Bretagne, certainly. Doesn't suit Gesink at all though.

Personally I think he was looking pretty solid in the final two stages of the Dauphiné, the only two stages where he went full gas (and immediately rode pretty much every Tour contender including VDB off his wheel, without having done any high intensity training).

 

[auscyclefan94]

On the Mur de Bretagne, certainly. Doesn't suit Gesink at all though.

Personally I think he was looking pretty solid in the final two stages of the Dauphiné, the only two stages where he went full gas (and immediately rode pretty much every Tour contender including VDB off his wheel, without having done any high intensity training).

On that point, why doesn't it suit him? He use to be able to ride well on these finishes yet can't now. Vandenbroeck is not known on those finishes nor is Hushovd yet they did well. I do agree that riders forms do vary at the Dauphine but Gesink did basically put the brakes on and put very little effort in the other Dauphine stages and on really had a go in the TT and the Allevard stage.

 

[theyoungest]

On that point, why doesn't it suit him? He use to be able to ride well on these finishes yet can't now. Vandenbroeck is not known on those finishes nor is Hushovd yet they did well. I do agree that riders forms do vary at the Dauphine but Gesink did basically put the brakes on and put very little effort in the other Dauphine stages and on really had a go in the TT and the Allevard stage.

He never does well on these climbs, if it's a little longer or steeper he can return after turning the diesel on, but if it's just a sprint uphill he sucks. Like Andy Schleck, by the way.

VDB seems to be quite explosive, actually. It's on the really long climbs that he hasn't impressed me so far. And Hushovd is obviously more explosive than Gesink.

Anyway, why is Gesink being discussed here? He's not a candidate for this year's Tour.

 

[auscyclefan94]

He never does well on these climbs, if it's a little longer or steeper he can return after turning the diesel on, but if it's just a sprint uphill he sucks. Like Andy Schleck, by the way.

VDB seems to be quite explosive, actually. It's on the really long climbs that he hasn't impressed me so far. And Hushovd is obviously more explosive than Gesink.

Anyway, why is Gesink being discussed here? He's not a candidate for this year's Tour.

He has so! Fleche Wallonne amongst other races. Andy Schleck has also done well on punchy climbs before and I do not believe that excuse about him being bad on those short finishes.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Anyway, why is Gesink being discussed here? He's not a candidate for this year's Tour.

But for next year's Tour he will be?

Assuming he does well in other races he'll be as much of a "contender" as 2 years ago. You can't play the broken leg card forever.

 

[movingtarget]

In my opinion you must be more concerned about Cadel's team as favourite his team has to play the rol, it's them to lose all people think. No team will respond and help BMC against any attack in normal situation.

BMC did not get much help in 2011 either. I don't think that will worry them. Europcar spent a lot of time riding in BMC's slipstream whenever Evans or Voeckler got in trouble but did not come to the front. BMC will have a very strong team for the flat and medium stages and no team rode at the front more in 2011. I don't think Evans would be too concerned.

 

[movingtarget]

Yeah, that will be an issue. I expect Martin or Fabian to be in yellow after the prolouge so their teams will most likely look to defend it for a while.

I thought BMC did a great job last year delivering Evans to the foot of the climbs in a good position but they were still pretty useless when the climbs started. Maybe TJVG can help out a bit more this year.

But Evans will not have it as good as he did last year. He will be attacked constatly with the view to having him all alone early on, just like back in 2008 when CSC werew so dominant.

Anyway, if it doesn't go well for him this year at least I can always fall back to the comforting thought that he has won the Tour, something I didn't really think was ever going to happen.

Other teams had their chance to do that in 2011 but rode pretty conservatively except for the Galibier stage and Contador's break on the Alpe stage. There is no team at the moment that can compare to CSC in 2008. A team of super domestiques and great climbers. R/Shack aren't in the same class. On paper BMC are still one of the strongest teams. Evans will be quietly confident. Saxo are overrated, Astana and Rabo and Sky are so so. Liquigas do better in the Giro. Katusha re nothing special. Who is left to dominate. No team that I can see. Movistar are not standouts. Europcar are okay but not better than the others. I think all the teams are pretty similar. Some good sprint teams and R/Shack have a very experienced team but will Kloeden and Horner who are very good riders, be able to respond over three weeks. I have my doubts. Once again it will come down to the brothers against the rest and maybe some clever tactics from Bruyneel. I think it will be another close race but without Contador I still think the TTs will decide it without a dominant climber.

 

[cineteq]

Anyway, why is Gesink being discussed here? He's not a candidate for this year's Tour.

Unlikely to win the Tour, yes, but if Sastre can win a Tour, and Schleck can finish 2nd few times, then he has a chance. VDB is the one who shouldn't have been mentioned at all. Has he won anything yet?

 

[theyoungest]

He has so! Fleche Wallonne amongst other races. Andy Schleck has also done well on punchy climbs before and I do not believe that excuse about him being bad on those short finishes.

You can't compare the Mur de Huy to the Mur de Bretagne, the latter was more like a slightly easier Cauberg.

Unlikely to win the Tour, yes, but if Sastre can win a Tour, and Schleck can finish 2nd few times, then he has a chance. VDB is the one who shouldn't have been mentioned at all. Has he won anything yet?

We'll see how he does in his first races this season, but somehow riding a great Tour with a metal pin in your leg seems impossible to me. VDB deserves to be mentioned just as much as Gesink, they got 5th and 6th on their first try for GC at the Tour so if anything VDB has the upper hand

 

[luckyboy]

Either Cadel or Menchov will win the Tour. Most likely Cadel.

 

[gustienordic]

Either Cadel or Menchov will win the Tour. Most likely Cadel.

Only if Menchov can find the form he had in 2009. If he races with the form he had last year he will get destroyed.

 

[Zoncolan]

Only if Menchov can find the form he had in 2009. If he races with the form he had last year he will get destroyed.

He mistimed his peak for the Vuelta by a week. He was looking strong in the third week.
Had there been no teammate ahead and one more mountain stage (along with the avoidance of usual Menchov giving away unnecessary time in the first week), he could have won. A lot of ifs, I know. If Cadel could do it last year, I don't see why Menchov couldn't do it in 2012.
After they bost missed out in 2008, I thought they would never do it with Contador/Schleck around.
Go figure.

 

[airstream]

Had there been no teammate ahead and one more mountain stage (along with the avoidance of usual Menchov giving away unnecessary time in the first week), he could have won
Go figure.

With that TT he couldnt have won it. How was it possible? at the expense of what attacks?