I discount the media heavily because there is a dearth of sources. They are all churning the same few facts over and over again, just like we are. I've seen commentary that suggests Lance will be indicted, commentary that suggests that he won't, and fence sitting commentary. And it't all over the same few facts. I haven't yet seen a lawyer come out and say Lance will be indicted. After all this time, that is where the media is.
Assuming that Lance was once a target, would the feds still be chasing Lance without a provable case after all this time? Maybe, but I doubt it. Spending millions in a an effort to catch a popular public figure, and coming up with nothing would be politically very unattractive. A large segment of the population are predisposed against the idea of a using federal criminal money to police sports. And no media outlet is suggesting that there are sealed indictments. If you pressed any media commentator to say why Lance is still a target, I doubt he'd do any better job of making his case than you just did.
The motive behind Lance's defensive actions are ambiguous. Clearly he is being investigated and clearly his doping actions are under investigation. Those two things, by themselves, are enough to justify his hyperkinetic legal and PR counterattack. Lance may be defending for other reasons (like he thinks he's a GJ target), but he is surely defending because he is afraid for his reputation and its monetary value. Lance would defend his reputation fiercely even if he wasn't a GJ target (i.e., in a Bonds situation, for example). Lance's behavior doesn't convince me he's a target.
We see the snippets of the investigation of Lance because Lance is a public figure. But this isn't the "Lance Armstrong Investigation" any more than it is the Joe Papp or Michael Ball Investigation. It is an investigation big enough to engage multiple agencies over multiple years. It is reasonable to suggest that drug distributors, counterfeiters, EPO docs, etc. are also being investigated. Unless we know who these other subjects are, and how "big" they are, we can't evaluate the Lance Armstrong "piece" as it relates to the whole. Lance could be relatively minor and not a target (like Barry Bonds in the BALCO investigation) or he could be huge and not a target (like Sammy Gravano In the Gotti Investigation), or Lance is a target.
That's why I'm not convinced Lance is a target. I hope he is, but I'm just in wait and see mode. Thanks for your thoughtful post.