Official Thread: Stage 16 TdF Martigny - Bourg-Saint-Maurice

[Wergeland]

Too bad that it seems to be headwind today. That will slow down the peleton and make attacks harder. Might stop GC-contenders from doing something.

 

[kukiniloa]

Balls to the Wall Finish

This stage has the makings of a dramatic finish.

The question is, will Contador attack up Col du Petit-Saint-Bernard, and who be able to hold his wheel? Will Andy Schleck be able to hold his wheel?

How technical is the descent? Will it allow descent specialists to stay away? Who among the climbers fits this description? Contador would play it safe, and give up a few seconds to a daredevil.

That's it then - who has the balls to get to Bourg Saint Maurice first?

 

[auscyclefan94]

Well, it's the profile I would expect to see from the Giro organisers. (in a normal Giro)
That's why it's a better race.
The probable difference between the contenders chosing whether or not to contest the stage, or being forced to.

I don't know why the ASO seem to dislike big gradients, but prefer cavalry charges...

The giro is a harder, closer race and more even event. The tour has lowered it's status this year.

 

[lone_cowboy]

Cadel has to try something... he is a long shot now but at least he has to try something if he wnats a shot at podium at least... i think we will see GC moves today... we have waited 2 boring weeks it would be good to get the last week of all GC contenders going for it...

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

I'm feeling Kruziger today

 

[msjett]

Cadel has to try something... he is a long shot now but at least he has to try something if he wnats a shot at podium at least... i think we will see GC moves today... we have waited 2 boring weeks it would be good to get the last week of all GC contenders going for it...

Agree with you about Cadel but I also think if Sastre wants a tilt at the title he needs to make a move today as well.

 

[martincov]

How about this for an idea? Columbia get a couple of guys to pace Cavendish up the first mountain then lead him down for him to gobble up the points of the two sprints and close the gap on Thor. Bit far fetched??

 

[sometriguy]

You can always hope that the peleton gets stuck behind a train for 45 minutes or so, then he might almost beat them up the first climb

 

[Anonymous]

im pretty sure the main gc contenders will come over the final climb together, but 30k downhill, definate opportunities for some gaps there, the question is, who are going to be the best descenders..

im going to stick my neck and and say it will be one of the domestiques.. and say the main leaders to come over the top together and VdV or Wegalius to take a flyer.. I think any domestique who can get there leader over the climb in one peice will be given permission to make a run for it on the downhill

 

[Zoncolan]

Pellizotti for the stage. Menchov will try also, though I don't know if he'll have the legs.

 

[Anonymous]

How about this for an idea? Columbia get a couple of guys to pace Cavendish up the first mountain then lead him down for him to gobble up the points of the two sprints and close the gap on Thor. Bit far fetched??

or better idea, george hincapie gets his lassoo out, catches on or more of the flying pigs that are going past and ties them to cav's handlebars and they pull him over the mountain..

Pellizotti for the stage. Menchov will try also, though I don't know if he'll have the legs.

i just spat out my tea..

 

[Anonymous]

.................... grr.. post wont delete

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

How about this for an idea? Columbia get a couple of guys to pace Cavendish up the first mountain then lead him down for him to gobble up the points of the two sprints and close the gap on Thor. Bit far fetched??

Pretty far fatched.
We are talking about a 30k HC climb.
Today, it's really only about surviving for Cav and the other sprinters.
Also. Even if they'd try to, imagining only Cav and Thor would battle it out on the climb. I guess Thor would put minutes into Cav regardless of how much help Cav had untill the top of the climb.

 

[frizzlefry]

I need coffee.

 

[fungee]

If there's going to be a break, Wegmann will be in it.
But Pellizotti will be there, too.

 

[Anonymous]

OK, I just listened to 10 minutes of how Lance still doesn't have to ride for Contador because he is still capable of winning because according to Bob Roll he "has a unique ability to recover better and better every day."

Some observations:
1. Lance clearly is weaker than not just Contador, but Schlecklet, Kloden, Wiggins, and several others. He isn't going to win unless there is a crash by Contador, and even then it will be hard for him to keep the gap he has even with the TT.
2. It is physiologically IMPOSSIBLE for a rider to recover better and better over the course of a 3 week tour. The human body does not work that way. The ONLY way for that to happen it with performance enhancing drugs. Period. No way around it.
3. I am sick of Versus and their reporting from inside Lance's colon. I don't think Mr Armstrong would agree with the crap they were talking about this morning. It is almost as if they didn't listen to him after Sunday's stage.

 

[Zen Master]

Pellizotti for the stage. Menchov will try also, though I don't know if he'll have the legs.

i just spat out my tea..

And I almost choked to death

Last year during the 16th stage ( practically the same stage profil like today ) Menchov lost about 35 seconds on that 24km long descent to the finish in Jausiers

 

[Publicus]

OK, I just listened to 10 minutes of how Lance still doesn't have to ride for Contador because he is still capable of winning because according to Bob Roll he "has a unique ability to recover better and better every day."

Some observations:
1. Lance clearly is weaker than not just Contador, but Schlecklet, Kloden, Wiggins, and several others. He isn't going to win unless there is a crash by Contador, and even then it will be hard for him to keep the gap he has even with the TT.
2. It is physiologically IMPOSSIBLE for a rider to recover better and better over the course of a 3 week tour. The human body does not work that way. The ONLY way for that to happen it with performance enhancing drugs. Period. No way around it.
3. I am sick of Versus and their reporting from inside Lance's colon. I don't think Mr Armstrong would agree with the crap they were talking about this morning. It is almost as if they didn't listen to him after Sunday's stage.

I thought it was just me. He had the audacity to suggest that the remaining mountains would favor Lance over Contador. I guess they have to say something to keep the casual fans tuned in.

 

[Anonymous]

I thought it was just me. He had the audacity to suggest that the remaining mountains would favor Lance over Contador. I guess they have to say something to keep the casual fans tuned in.

I guess? I am truly disgusted at the incredible amount of disrespect they have shown everyone else in the Tour. It makes me want to puke.

 

[The Colnago Kid]

Two big climbs with three possible outcomes

There are three likely scenarios that will play out today, each with some chance of garnering the stage win.

Firstly the KOM aspirants and a group of good climbers out of GC contention will attack early and press on up the first climb hoping to stay away all day and fight out the win in Bourg-Saint-Maurice. Chances of stage success: 60 percent.

Secondly, some of the GC contenders seemingly out of the frame, like: Evans, Kirchen, Luis León Sánchez, Karpets and Gerdemann strike out on the first climb, latching on to the climbers in the break and banking on the big guns, who will be keeping their powder dry for the fireworks on the final climb, giving them at least a couple of minutes. I’d expect to see Evans have the company of a team mate in the break too. A big attack like this on Stage 16 makes more sense than trying it on the lumpier Stage 17 because they’ll need to save some legs for the ITT the next day. These tactics could also suit Astana because it may compel Garmin and Saxo Bank to come to the front earlier to protect their positions rather than saving it for the final climb. Chances of stage success: 10 percent.

Finally, those still in GC contention will most likely wait to play their cards on the second climb. Astana will ride defensively, looking to control the front of the peloton for as long as possible while not burning too many matches. Expect the likes of Liquigas and Saxo Bank to push forward at the base of Col du Petit-Saint-Bernard as they did on Verbier. Garmin are the wild cards - Wiggins is riding brilliantly and they have Vande Velde up their sleeve, who they may encourage to attack early. Equally, Astana may look to pressure their rivals by pushing Klöden up the mountain, threatening the possible podiums of Wiggins and Schleck, forcing them to use petrol while Contador sits on their wheel. Chances of stage success: 30 percent.

My (dream) tip: Cadel Evans in an upset, stealing back 2:30 and a podium contender gain. Or Pellizotti takes the stage win and a swag of KOM points to boot. Or a Schleck.

More here: http://tinyurl.com/l2jzgd

 

[Animal]

Yes could be interesting today if the underdogs grow some cojones.

But probably won't be.

 

[Publicus]

I guess? I am truly disgusted at the incredible amount of disrespect they have shown everyone else in the Tour. It makes me want to puke.

I'm with you on that. It seems to me they have a perfectly good opportunity to introduce more Americans to the quality of the sport. Instead they've insisted that no matter what happens, it always is EXCELLENT NEWS FOR LANCE ARMSTRONG!

 

[Parrot23]

Garmin are the wild cards - Wiggins is riding brilliantly and they have Vande Velde up their sleeve, who they may encourage to attack early. Equally, Astana may look to pressure their rivals by pushing Klöden up the mountain, threatening the possible podiums of Wiggins and Schleck, forcing them to use petrol while Contador sits on their wheel. Chances of stage success: 30 percent.

Didn't Contador say they want to put some more time into Wiggins?

Both Schlecks and Astana will be looking to drop the latter, I think, if they can.
Schlecks absol. have to try this before the TT.

But this also gives Wiggo some wheels to follow while Klodi may be split in having to shepherd along Lance.

 

[Wergeland]

Exciting stuff happening. Both Cancellara and Voight in the break. Several Cervelo riders pluss a lot of great climbers out of GC contention (Moncouttie, Casar, Pellizotti, Karpets)

 

[Publicus]

Didn't Contador say they want to put some more time into Wiggins?

Both Schlecks and Astana will be looking to drop the latter, I think, if they can.
Schlecks absol. have to try this before the TT.

But this also gives Wiggo some wheels to follow while Klodi may be split in having to shepherd along Lance.

You are correct . . . Contador wants more time on Wiggins. Frankly, if Andy Schleck is smart he works with Astana to drop Wiggins since it puts him closer to the podium.