Two big climbs with three possible outcomes
There are three likely scenarios that will play out today, each with some chance of garnering the stage win.
Firstly the KOM aspirants and a group of good climbers out of GC contention will attack early and press on up the first climb hoping to stay away all day and fight out the win in Bourg-Saint-Maurice. Chances of stage success: 60 percent.
Secondly, some of the GC contenders seemingly out of the frame, like: Evans, Kirchen, Luis León Sánchez, Karpets and Gerdemann strike out on the first climb, latching on to the climbers in the break and banking on the big guns, who will be keeping their powder dry for the fireworks on the final climb, giving them at least a couple of minutes. I’d expect to see Evans have the company of a team mate in the break too. A big attack like this on Stage 16 makes more sense than trying it on the lumpier Stage 17 because they’ll need to save some legs for the ITT the next day. These tactics could also suit Astana because it may compel Garmin and Saxo Bank to come to the front earlier to protect their positions rather than saving it for the final climb. Chances of stage success: 10 percent.
Finally, those still in GC contention will most likely wait to play their cards on the second climb. Astana will ride defensively, looking to control the front of the peloton for as long as possible while not burning too many matches. Expect the likes of Liquigas and Saxo Bank to push forward at the base of Col du Petit-Saint-Bernard as they did on Verbier. Garmin are the wild cards - Wiggins is riding brilliantly and they have Vande Velde up their sleeve, who they may encourage to attack early. Equally, Astana may look to pressure their rivals by pushing Klöden up the mountain, threatening the possible podiums of Wiggins and Schleck, forcing them to use petrol while Contador sits on their wheel. Chances of stage success: 30 percent.
My (dream) tip: Cadel Evans in an upset, stealing back 2:30 and a podium contender gain. Or Pellizotti takes the stage win and a swag of KOM points to boot. Or a Schleck.
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