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Official thread - TdF Stage 6 Gérone - Barcelone (181.5 km)

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Boleyn said:
This is the stage that I thought the first breakaway would succeed. I wasn't expecting it to succeed today (stage 5) but, fortunately, I did have Voeckler in my fantasy team!!




I hope so. I also have Moncoutie, Vaugrenard, Dessel, Roman Feillu, and Vogondy in my team.

Maybe Quickstep will let Chavenal will have a go as well - yes he is on my team!

Dont the french only win on bastille day?....
 
Usually on a stage like this I would say that a breakaway would succeed, but I'm not so sure this time. I say this because of Mark Cavendish. On genuinely flat finishes he is so dominant that guys like Hushovd, Freire etc should be targeting stages like this if they want to get stage wins. Freire, in particular, has shown nothing on the flat so far.

If you are having a bet, for a real longshot you might want to consider Julian Dean. In the newspaper last week here in New Zealand he said this was the stage profile that suited him best to try and he would be trying to get his first stage win. The uphill last 500m doesn't suit Tyler Farrar so I figure Dean might be set free from riding leadout for Farrar and be allowed to have a go himself. At 150-1 he'll be taking a few dollars of mine.
 
There is a nice 500 meters of 6.6% with a steady incline the last 1.5 kms.

I think some of the domestique/climbers, whose team leaders no longer have real GC hopes left, will form a break away. Riders like Juan Antonia Flecha (RAB), Ruben Perez (EUS), and Inigo Cuesta (CTT). I wouldn't be surprised to see Thomas Voekler in the break either. Since some of the true sprinters teams (Columbia and Quick-Step) won't have much incentive to chase (uphill finish does not suit Cav or Boonen), this break has a great chance to succeed.

However, should the break not make it, it will be because those sprinter's teams that have sprinters who can handle mole hills (CTT with Hushovd and RAB with Freire) will work to bring the break back - hoping for a stage win from one of their own.

If it's a breakaway, my pick is Juan Antonia Flecha.
If it's a sprint, my pick is Hushovd (who really needs some points if he is going to stay in contention for green).

Edit: I think I may even through in George Hincapie to the break away mix. If he has good legs, there is no reason why he would be refused the okay to go for it. It gives the rest of the team some rest before the mountains (they won't have to chase with one of their own in the break - and Hincapie is no threat to the Green jersey).

On top of that - Hincapie can climb and he can sprint.

I love that I took off work for this stage!:D
 
Mar 19, 2009
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Who would be in the break?

Rabobank:

Juan Manuel Garate is currently 4'09 down.
Juan Antonio Flecha is currently 4'32 down.

Rabobank are trying to save face. Gesink is gone. Not only that, Menchov is too far down. Flecha was saving himself last year and never tried a break. Rabo would want someone there because there is a chance Freire won't win the stage if it comes together.

Euskatel:

Igor Anton is currently 3'48 down
Egoi Martinez is currently 4'09 down
Ruben Perez is currently 6.54 down
Mikel Astarloza is currently 2.54 down

One of those riders would be the front runners for Euskatel.

Quick-Step:

Sylvain Chavanel is another one that might go.

Agritubel:

Too early for Moreau?

Caisse:

David Arroyo is 4'10 down
Luis Leon Sanchez is 3'18 down

My first thought would be that Luis Leon Sanchez would try a break and then I realised they have Arroyo on their team. No doubt Arroyo tries a break today.

Don't know about the other teams.

If it did get back together, the sprinters won't win. I see Luis Leon Sanchez, Kim Kirchen, Tony Martin or Andy Schleck attacking and one of them winning it.
 
Jun 16, 2009
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I think as it is a 3 km climb to the finish for today's stage that the only sprinter to be up he front will be Oscar Friere though you may see a somebody like Juan Antonio Flecha attack from a breakaway or from the bunch. Rabobank's luck has to turn around.
 
I wouldn't go so far as to say the sprinters won't win it. The pure speed guys like Cavendish and Boonen probably won't but someone like Hushovd should be right in this. It's not that dis-similar to Stages 1 (where he finished - I think - in the top 10) and Stage 2 (which he won) of last year's Tour.
 
Mar 12, 2009
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I think Chavanel is saving energy for big breakways during the Pyrennées so he won't go in the early one today.
A good strategy for polka-dot jersey would be to go in a long escape on Friday, be cool Saturday and go in a new breakaway on Monday.

For today, i think if a big peloton comes together we can have a good surprise from Feuillu. He deserve a win...
of course Pozzato & Cancellara are probably the biggest

*** Pozzato, Cancellara
** Kirchen (if he's really in good shape he'd be ****), Pineau, Pellizotti, Hushovd
* Haussler (is he really riding the Tour this year ? :(), Van Avermaet, Freire, Ballan
 
Mar 15, 2009
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Well I need to pay more attention, when I looked at this yesterday I thought it was a shoe-in for a classics style stage racer (although most of the good ones aren't here). Looking at the first post here the cat 4 climb is more than twice as far from the end as I thought and the little climb at the end might tempt anybody to wait until the end.

But as is the norm in cycling I think it will be a standard sprint at the end won by Cavendish. I think Columbia are too strong and interested to let a couple of little hills near the end stop them.
 
If I were Saxo, I'd let the break go today and give another team the headache of pulling the peloton to Andorra. It would also put an end to this inevitable speculation and LA's hopes of yellow.

I know the Tour de Suisse was easy, this year, but there is no way Cancellara will get dropped, today, in anycase. If he can't make 500 metres at 6.6%, he might as well pack his bags. Dennis Menchov, on the other hand, looks like cracking, every time the tempo goes up.

The Peloton will have small time gaps. It's all about being towards the front and holding the next wheel, for the contenders.
 
Jun 16, 2009
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The only guys who will go out the back are the pure sprinters like Cav, Ciolek and Farrar. If it gets down to a sprint i think Hushovd or Freire will win. I think a big bunch will go to the finish of a stage like this but their will be accelrations from the spanish on the climb to go away to victory. Should be exciting racing.
 
Jul 7, 2009
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auscyclefan94 said:
The only guys who will go out the back are the pure sprinters like Cav, Ciolek and Farrar. If it gets down to a sprint i think Hushovd or Freire will win. I think a big bunch will go to the finish of a stage like this but their will be accelrations from the spanish on the climb to go away to victory. Should be exciting racing.

Columbia wants the Green jersey badly. If Hushovd is up front at the end, with a stage victory within reach they'll work hard for Cav. No way they'll let Hushovd win and Cav not coming in the top 10 or higher.
 
Jul 4, 2009
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Thats a great part of the coast to ride. Big chance of a tail wind, its a really fast bit of road. Just might get a thundery shower.
 
Jun 16, 2009
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Wergeland said:
Columbia wants the Green jersey badly. If Hushovd is up front at the end, with a stage victory within reach they'll work hard for Cav. No way they'll let Hushovd win and Cav not coming in the top 10 or higher.

Cav will be too far back or will be dropped on the climb as the steepness of near 7 percent will destroy him. If Thor wins today and Cav gets dropped he will be in Green. Thor is going to have to go for intermidiate sprint points
 
Jun 10, 2009
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cioleck will be out the back?! i doubt it, i think him and friere would have to be the favourites for this stage, strong sprinters, who can climb well enough.
 
Apr 8, 2009
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Mellow Velo said:
If I were Saxo, I'd let the break go today and give another team the headache of pulling the peloton to Andorra. It would also put an end to this inevitable speculation and LA's hopes of yellow.

I agree but I also think Saxo should have 1 guy there to hedge their bets (not the shlecks or fabian because Astana would let them get away)

However this could be Thor's chance to get back into calculations if Cav does get dropped he must take it
 
Jul 7, 2009
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auscyclefan94 said:
The only guys who will go out the back are the pure sprinters like Cav, Ciolek and Farrar. If it gets down to a sprint i think Hushovd or Freire will win. I think a big bunch will go to the finish of a stage like this but their will be accelrations from the spanish on the climb to go away to victory. Should be exciting racing.

Ciolek can climb better even than Hushovd, I think this is the biggest chance for Ciolek to win a stage in this tour. Did you see the Tour of Germany last year, there he won a stage with a steep uphill finish


1 Gerald Ciolek (Ger) Team Columbia 5.39.35 (38.517 km/h)
2 Rubens Bertogliati (Swi) Scott - American Beef
3 Leonardo Bertagnolli (Ita) Liquigas
4 Thomas Lövkvist (Swe) Team Columbia
5 Johannes Fröhlinger (Ger) Gerolsteiner
6 Jussi Veikkanen (Fin) Française des Jeux
7 Rigoberto Uran (Col) Caisse d'Epargne
8 David Loosli (Swi) Lampre
9 Francesco Gavazzi (Ita) Lampre
10 Maxime Monfort (Bel) Cofidis - Le Crédit par Téléphone
11 Linus Gerdemann (Ger) Team Columbia
12 Pietro Caucchioli (Ita) Crédit Agricole
13 Marcus Ljungqvist (Swe) Team CSC - Saxo Bank
14 Andrea Noè (Ita) Liquigas
15 Daniel Navarro Garcia (Spa) Astana
16 Iñaki Isasi Flores (Spa) Euskaltel - Euskadi
17 Juan José Oroz Ugalde (Spa) Euskaltel - Euskadi
18 Angel Gomez (Spa) Scott - American Beef
19 Gregory Rast (Swi) Astana
20 Janez Brajkovic (Slo) Astana
21 Josep Jufre Pou (Spa) Scott - American Beef
22 José Rujano Guillen (Ven) Caisse d'Epargne
23 Andreas Dietziker (Swi) Team Volksbank
24 Christophe Le Mével (Fra) Crédit Agricole


Last years tour, second stage also uphill finish


1 Thor Hushovd (Nor) Crédit Agricole 3.45.13 (43.84 km/h)
2 Kim Kirchen (Lux) Team Columbia
3 Gerald Ciolek (Ger) Team Columbia
4 Robert Hunter (RSA) Barloworld
5 Erik Zabel (Ger) Team Milram
6 Iouri Trofimov (Rus) Bouygues Telecom
7 Oscar Freire Gomez (Spa) Rabobank
8 Jimmy Casper (Fra) Agritubel
9 Martin Elmiger (Swi) AG2R La Mondiale
10 Leonardo Duque (Col) Cofidis - Le Crédit par Téléphone
 
Mar 18, 2009
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Dekker_Tifosi said:
You are not making a strong point there Columbiafan/BHF fan (yes, I know you)

In the second result Hushovd is beating Ciolek...

That being said, Ciolek is a much better climber than any other sprinter. That includes Hushovd, Freire, Bennati and even Davis.

My pick is Kirchen, provided he's on form (which is a question mark)