Teams & Riders Official Wout Van Aert thread

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MJR

MJR

Mar 22, 2024
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I really hope Wout is just coming into the season under-cooked and manages to find some winning form come Flanders and PR time.

Not to overstate the obvious, but the clock is definitely ticking on him getting those big wins that still elude him.
 
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ChewbaccaDefense

Nov 5, 2013
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MJR said:
I really hope Wout is just coming into the season under-cooked and manages to find some winning form come Flanders and PR time.

Not to overstate the obvious, but the clock is definitely ticking on him getting those big wins that still elude him.
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And if this were the 1990's, I'd say that this is wrong as it relates to P-R in particular, but this isn't the 1990's. Be it equipment, training ,or whaterver, older riders don't come into their own in that race the way they used to. If Pog rides, Pog wins, unless a mechanical. I would say that MVDP has an upperhand in P-R because equipment choice, and racing knowledge of the course is a significant advantage...but Pog is just so freaking strong, I don't think anything will keep that from happening, unless he gets several flats, because just one flat, and he will get back to the front.

Maybe it will be wet. That is a great equalizer there, but it also means you have to be at the front the entire day, and now Wout thinks hanging back is somehow valuable. That won't work at P-R dry or wet. He also doesn't seem to have the "win or die trying" gene. He tries to play chess with a rider that can just flip the board anytime he wants.
 
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Salvarani

Oct 15, 2017
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MJR said:
I really hope Wout is just coming into the season under-cooked and manages to find some winning form come Flanders and PR time.

Not to overstate the obvious, but the clock is definitely ticking on him getting those big wins that still elude him.
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Strange start for him.

Looked bad in the finishes in Algarve, but good in the ITT.

Yesterday he was just average. Struggled on the climbs. Nothing left in the sprint in the end. Went backwards.

Jorgenson looked super and that was his first race this season. He closed down multiple attacks and held the first group together mostly on his own, before Küng got away... but then the peloton arrived shortly after to swallow up the first group.

It might just be that he is undercooked, but that multiple Visma riders are out or are looking to be behind form-wise is worrying for him/them. Classics squad look pretty weakened compared to other years. Missing Hoydonck, Tratnik, Dijke brothers… and Laporte sick, Van Baarle crashes.

He has a month until E3 though and thats where he needs to show he is in great shape for what is to come. Maybe that is the plan.
 
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Netserk

Netserk

Apr 30, 2011
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His form and its trajectory is similar to last year's, but then in addition he's also scarred (and scared?) by his crashes last year, so unwilling and unable to fight for position. At least in these races. He was noticeably better in Kuurne than Omloop last year, so maybe he needs a day more in the legs. I also think he'll be poor in E3, so the big hope is that he manages to super-peak for De Ronde.
 
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stonerider

Nov 14, 2009
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Wout will be 31 this year, right? He is 3 years past his peak powers (age 28 for males) and since last year he is concerned with crashing. His concern with crashing is understandable because he will never win Flanders or PR if he can't arrive injury free. I'm not concerned he is trying to be safer, the concerning thing is his real struggles on the climbs. Either others have caught up to him or his power to weight ratio isn't what it used to be. That said, he needs to lose weight and/or gain some watts in the next 4 weeks if he wants to sniff the podium in Flanders or PR.

I wonder if Visma is having 2nd thoughts on the lifetime contract extension?
 
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Divergence

Feb 27, 2023
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stonerider said:
Wout will be 31 this year, right? He is 3 years past his peak powers (age 28 for males) and since last year he is concerned with crashing. His concern with crashing is understandable because he will never win Flanders or PR if he can't arrive injury free. I'm not concerned he is trying to be safer, the concerning thing is his real struggles on the climbs. Either others have caught up to him or his power to weight ratio isn't what it used to be. That said, he needs to lose weight and/or gain some watts in the next 4 weeks if he wants to sniff the podium in Flanders or PR.

I wonder if Visma is having 2nd thoughts on the lifetime contract extension?
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He is nowhere near past his peak. For road cycling one can be physiologically able to achieve more or less the same peak level from 20 until 42-3 years of age. However life happens in-between. And, it seems to me, the injury worries and the motivation to win is not where it should be be for Wout to be able to win on the biggest stage.
 
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stonerider

Nov 14, 2009
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Divergence said:
He is nowhere near past his peak. For road cycling one can be physiologically able to achieve more or less the same peak level from 20 until 42-3 years of age. However life happens in-between. And, it seems to me, the injury worries and the motivation to win is not where it should be be for Wout to be able to win on the biggest stage.
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So you think someone at age 40 has the same potential as their 30 year old self if training and nutrition is the same? What studies do you have to back that up: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9992958/
 
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Balthazar

Balthazar

Mar 23, 2024
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Divergence said:
He is nowhere near past his peak. For road cycling one can be physiologically able to achieve more or less the same peak level from 20 until 42-3 years of age. However life happens in-between. And, it seems to me, the injury worries and the motivation to win is not where it should be be for Wout to be able to win on the biggest stage.
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That could maybe be the case for some individuals if you are talking about longer sustained efforts but explosive high lactate and high heart rate efforts definitely get capped and start declining in your thirties.
 
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Divergence

Feb 27, 2023
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stonerider said:
So you think someone at age 40 has the same potential as their 30 year old self if training and nutrition is the same? What studies do you have to back that up: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9992958/
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Did you even read what you posted? Of course skiing results will be best for mid 20s aged people. Risk taking declines in in the 30s for all people and this is very significant for skiing. Additionally, there is nowhere written that training and nutrition stays the same (also how do you measure this over a 20 years range). My point is: For the very few who are very motivated in their 40s, they can achieve excellent performances. However, motivation and risk taking and family almost always get in the way of a 40yo athlete being as dedicated (to put all of these factors in one word) as a 20yo one.
In the end a word of caution: Many sports researchers are pretty poor in statistical analysis. The sample sizes are often small and the controlling for variables is often non-existent (to be fair this is also quite difficult). Basically, it is quite easy to prove anything one wants in sports physiology so I do not put a lot of weight in these studies.
 
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YavorD

Jul 8, 2017
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Divergence said:
Nice reading comprehension of what I wrote.
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You said "he's nowhere near past his peak" which is what I was refering to. And there's absolutely no way you (or me for that matter) know that.

He may be past his peak and his performances start dropping bit by bit or your theory about different reasons might be true. Or he might be simply peaking slowly towards RVV/PR and drop Pogacar on Kwaremont.
Point is, you have no way of knowing whether he is past his peak or not and you can't simply dismiss that opportunity.
 
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Arvid Falk

Mar 23, 2025
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For Wout to win RVV the team must blow up the race early and try to anticipate.
Just trying to follow Pog and MVDP won't do, they just seem too strong. Hopefully Jorgenson and van Baarle are in supershape, then it might get interesting.
 
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Arvid Falk

Mar 23, 2025
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Peyroteo94 said:
No chance his team will blow the race early.
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Who knows, but I'm sure both Visma, Lidl-trek and other teams know they can't let UAE control the race and set up Pog for an attack on Kwaremont because then the are doomed. They at least try to make it difficult for Pog and MVDP, isolate them and get them to chase or whatever. I'm sure at least Pedersen will try to anticipate.
 
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Peyroteo94

Peyroteo94

Mar 20, 2022
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Arvid Falk said:
Who knows, but I'm sure both Visma, Lidl-trek and other teams know they can't let UAE control the race and set up Pog for an attack on Kwaremont because then the are doomed. They at least try to make it difficult for Pog and MVDP, isolate them and get them to chase or whatever. I'm sure at least Pedersen will try to anticipate.
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I think he is showing today what he will do in RVV.
 
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