Olympic Road Race Men

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Aug 29, 2010
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goggalor said:
That's it? That's like a speed bump for these riders, and when it's climbed for the last time 50 km from the finish... ****ing pointless.
It's actually worse than that even, the climb is brand new very fast surface, the flats on a lot of the rest of the circuit are heavy bumpy surrey roads. It's not really a true description of the climb either, it's 2.5km at 4.9% and then the rest at 2% with just one small section within that nearer 5%. The run in is then fast and smooth so the break would've been killing itself on the tough roads whilst cavendish got a reasonable free ride in the bunch.

Of course it's made for a GB rider - why does anyone think it would be anything different?

There's a good chance a lot of significant riders (be them sprinters or important domestiques) get taken out/distanced in crashes. Wouldn't be at all surprised to see Froome the wrong side of a split early on.
 
Jun 1, 2011
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JibberJim said:
It's actually worse than that even, the climb is brand new very fast surface, the flats on a lot of the rest of the circuit are heavy bumpy surrey roads. It's not really a true description of the climb either, it's 2.5km at 4.9% and then the rest at 2% with just one small section within that nearer 5%. The run in is then fast and smooth so the break would've been killing itself on the tough roads whilst cavendish got a reasonable free ride in the bunch.

Of course it's made for a GB rider - why does anyone think it would be anything different?

There's a good chance a lot of significant riders (be them sprinters or important domestiques) get taken out/distanced in crashes. Wouldn't be at all surprised to see Froome the wrong side of a split early on.
The climb, in the end, becasue of the distance I think will factor in. It's enough that, no matter is grade, will be point of attack or selection. I think it will be a a full-gas section where it will be important to be at the front. The sprinters can surrvive, but if the mix is right, a late break of the classics men may have their day.
 
May 1, 2012
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We mustn't forget that although Cav did indeed win as predicted in Copenhagen, the bunch finish was largely chaotic, on another day he might not have got trapped a bit more and Greipel, Goss or even Canc could have got it.

Just because its flat, effectively at least, doesn't mean the best sprinter will win. Gb has a smaller team, but they do have the advantage that they are basically team sky.

My money would be on Cav, but i wouldn't be surprised if another sprinter took it. Really though I'd prefer an epic showdown between Boonen and Cancellara.
 
Sep 3, 2011
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Do not forget about the number of riders in each team.

Olympics are much harder to control than worlds.
 
May 5, 2009
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I think the OP summarised most important aspects already.

Personally, I think the course is a shame for an olympic medal. Making it even more ridicolous by putting the line approx. 50km from the last Box Hill tour. It's quite a few years ago that I used to live in London, but I thought there were a few walls (18% and more) - correct me if I'm wrong - to shape the course a bit more like a mini-micro-Flanders or take it further away from London to make it more difficult. This course is basically serving the gold medal for Cav on a plate. But maybe Mr Sagan sees this differently. Although I would like to see Cance breaking away and winning, or escaping with the likes of Chavanel or Boonen, this looks highly unlikely.

Two important factors to consider that might play an unexpected role under certain circumstances:

1)
jrolaf said:
Remember that there are no radios, so a break is more difficult to control.
2)
oronet commander said:
The main aspect to consider is the reduced number of team members in the Olympic race compared to other races. That will make it more difficult to control it.
So let's hope theses factors or others will make the race more interesting than one would expect based on the course profile.

A last note to the numerous posts that other teams were not making the race selective enough in Copenhagen, etc. etc.
jrolaf said:
Also, the other teams must have learned from Copenhagen, where they played right into the hands of Team Cav, and failed to make it a selective race.
Tei6chai said:
So far, only the Belgians seem definitely committed to making it a selective race.

The Aussies and Italians seem entirely committed to the 'wait and see strategy' that caused them to screw up in Copenhagen.
It's pretty easy to say this. But you need the legs, power and endurance to do this. Fact is that last year in Copenhagen, Team GB controlled the race similar to sky this Tour (during most climbs): Setting a pace which does not allow anybody to break away and build a consistent or extensive gap, particularly the closer we did get to the finish. Like Cancellara said, had he broken away at the pace set by Team GB would have been suicide, a complete waste of energy. And if Spartacus said this, I think we don't need to argue about it.

However, in view of the smaller number of team members, it might not be as easy on Saturday. Again, let's hope it's gonna be much more interesting, dramatic and thrilling as we could expect (#wishfulthinking).
 
Apr 23, 2012
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kanari said:
I guess there are two realistic scenarios here:

1) Bunch sprint with Cavendish - Cav wins
2) Smaller bunch sprint without Cavendish - Sagan wins

:D
Sagan is alone in the race. There is a small chance that Velits could help him a bit in case that some of the countries will not use all places - which is not very possible. So I do not think this would be easy for him. Another interesting possibility for him was MTB race - but Slovakia failed to get any place there - and UCI will not allow him to start there - I would say that it could be quite interesting to compare him with the best MTB riders. He is not riding MTB 3 years now, but I expect that he is still good.
 
sucotash said:
Do not forget about the number of riders in each team.

Olympics are much harder to control than worlds.
+1.

People are calling a bunch sprint but they have to remember that almost half of the participants will be dropped half way the race, if not more. There are a lot of unknown riders. So the group at the end will almost has to be small and then anything can happen.

I think Sagan will win.
 
Feb 23, 2011
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I think that Wiggo should be the plan b for Britain.

He could easily get in a small group towards the end and if need be roast Sagan in a sprint.

People forget that before turning his hand to the tour he was a was pretty quick to the line as he showed in Romandy (sitting down track style). Motivation to win in London will be pretty big for him
 
Apr 14, 2010
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How much help will some of the favorites get from trade teammates that aren't countrymen? Basically the opposite of the Spanish Armada.
 
I think it will be a pretty selective race. There is quite a lot of dross.

And there are only 145 starters from the list I can see. Approximately 60 of these have no chance. Not just of winning, but of staying with the pace past 150km, in my opinion.

Cav will certainly be dropped, in my opinion. He was dropped in MSR this year...not on the Poggio or the Cipressa but on the bloody Marie or whatever it is called.

But here is the question. Will he get dropped on the 5th time round or the last time? If it is the latter, he will have no problem getting back...if it is the former....then game on.
 
Feb 15, 2011
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B_Ugli said:
I think that Wiggo should be the plan b for Britain.

He could easily get in a small group towards the end and if need be roast Sagan in a sprint.

People forget that before turning his hand to the tour he was a was pretty quick to the line as he showed in Romandy (sitting down track style). Motivation to win in London will be pretty big for him
Wait... are you serious?!?! Sagan can sometimes outsprint Cav, Greipel, & Goss.

Wiggins would get killed by Vino.
 
Oct 31, 2009
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Looking at the Video footage of the Boxhill Circuit ..It is not going to be a Walk in the Park for anyone... Climb is average and well surfaced but plenty of Narrow Rough Roads to contend with on the Decent. Lots of Opportunity for Mayhem.. Specially if it rains ..
 
Aug 29, 2010
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3wheeler said:
Looking at the Video footage of the Boxhill Circuit ..It is not going to be a Walk in the Park for anyone... Climb is average and well surfaced but plenty of Narrow Rough Roads to contend with on the Decent. Lots of Opportunity for Mayhem.. Specially if it rains ..
No forecast for rain, and a tailwind up the majority of the climb is forecast - although it seems the tree trimming they've done may have changed the fastest weather conditions for the climbing.
 
Jul 16, 2010
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B_Ugli said:
I think that Wiggo should be the plan b for Britain.

He could easily get in a small group towards the end and if need be roast Sagan in a sprint.

People forget that before turning his hand to the tour he was a was pretty quick to the line as he showed in Romandy (sitting down track style). Motivation to win in London will be pretty big for him
Laughing my *** out.

If Wiggins wins a sprint against Sagan I'm personally banning Wiggins my self for 4 years.
 
Feb 15, 2011
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If Viviani is racing, won't that change Italy's tactics, they then have two sprinters with Modolo & Viviani. I'm not sure which one is faster either.
 
May 17, 2009
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la.margna said:
Fact is that last year in Copenhagen, Team GB controlled the race similar to sky this Tour (during most climbs): Setting a pace which does not allow anybody to break away and build a consistent or extensive gap, particularly the closer we did get to the finish. Like Cancellara said, had he broken away at the pace set by Team GB would have been suicide, a complete waste of energy. And if Spartacus said this, I think we don't need to argue about it.

However, in view of the smaller number of team members, it might not be as easy on Saturday. Again, let's hope it's gonna be much more interesting, dramatic and thrilling as we could expect (#wishfulthinking).
As easy as the route for the Olympics may be, it is still waaay harder than the pancake route from Copenhagen. So the same tactics do not apply here.

Let's just hope the classics riders bring their fighting legs on saturday, and it will get interesting....I hope...
 

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