I think the OP summarised most important aspects already.
Personally, I think the course is a shame for an olympic medal. Making it even more ridicolous by putting the line approx. 50km from the last Box Hill tour. It's quite a few years ago that I used to live in London, but I thought there were a few walls (18% and more) - correct me if I'm wrong - to shape the course a bit more like a mini-micro-Flanders or take it further away from London to make it more difficult. This course is basically serving the gold medal for Cav on a plate. But maybe Mr Sagan sees this differently. Although I would like to see Cance breaking away and winning, or escaping with the likes of Chavanel or Boonen, this looks highly unlikely.
Two important factors to consider that might play an unexpected role under certain circumstances:
1)
jrolaf said:
Remember that there are no radios, so a break is more difficult to control.
2)
oronet commander said:
The main aspect to consider is the reduced number of team members in the Olympic race compared to other races. That will make it more difficult to control it.
So let's hope theses factors or others will make the race more interesting than one would expect based on the course profile.
A last note to the numerous posts that other teams were not making the race selective enough in Copenhagen, etc. etc.
jrolaf said:
Also, the other teams must have learned from Copenhagen, where they played right into the hands of Team Cav, and failed to make it a selective race.
Tei6chai said:
So far, only the Belgians seem definitely committed to making it a selective race.
The Aussies and Italians seem entirely committed to the 'wait and see strategy' that caused them to screw up in Copenhagen.
It's pretty easy to say this. But you need the legs, power and endurance to do this. Fact is that last year in Copenhagen, Team GB controlled the race similar to sky this Tour (during most climbs): Setting a pace which does not allow anybody to break away and build a consistent or extensive gap, particularly the closer we did get to the finish. Like Cancellara said, had he broken away at the pace set by Team GB would have been suicide, a complete waste of energy. And if Spartacus said this, I think we don't need to argue about it.
However, in view of the smaller number of team members, it might not be as easy on Saturday. Again, let's hope it's gonna be much more interesting, dramatic and thrilling as we could expect (#wishfulthinking).