Olympic Road Race Men

[Froome19]

Because we had twice the number of Brittish riders...

Because the whole race was flat and there was no risk of dropping Cav so the tempo was high the whole race, and nobody had a chance to significantly ride away. Now on the circuit around Box Hill the Brits can not control it like that, because they would drop Cav

I do not think it is hard enough to drop Cav, but rather at most it can be used as a launchpad for attacks (see Gilbert comments)

And anyway after the circuit there still happens to be 50km of flat which they can use to reel in the break.

Currently Froome and Wiggins seem to be the two strongest riders in the peloton and them giving their all to bring back a break with a time gap which will certainly not be substantial is certainly a possibility, though not guaranteed.

 

[sucotash]

And this is what I like the most about this race it is unpredictable.

It is not held each year on the same roads with 8,9 men teams with almost everything under control.

 

[Froome19]

Could you explain to me guys how on earth is it posiible that we have only one rider from Slovakia in the race, one from Luxemburg, two from Kazakhstan, Czech Republic.

And for example three from Turkey, Iran, Morocco etc

Because of the ridiculous weighting by the UCI of the Asian Continental Tour in their efforts to allow cycling to spread across the entire world...


In terms of the European countries you mentioned the problem for them was that each country could only qualify as many spots as it had riders in the 2011 WorldTour individual rankings, similar to the WC so Luxembourg (who in fact have two) could only get those two because they only scored with Frank and Andy, even though they were 9th in the WT rankings.

Kazakhstan could one get two places because they only scored with Vino and Sergey Renev...

The ridiculous point you mentioned about the Asian countries is as The top countries of each Continental Tour which were in fact: Morocco (Africa Tour), Colombia (Americas) and Iran (Asia), were awarded three spots in the road race, which is totally ridiculous.

 

[jordan5000]

Is this true? I don't really have a lot of memories about Olympic road races.

Well I believe there have only been 5 prior "real" olympic road races so what he said doesn't mean much.

 

[Cav the Great]

MSR is longer than this race and the Poggio is much, much closer to the finish than the last ascent of Box Hill. Those two factors make all the difference.

The sad truth is that Wiggins and Froome are so strong right now that Cavendish could potentially be two minutes behind after the last ascent of Box Hill, and GB could still bring him back with a TTT.

Whats so sad about that ?

 

[jordan5000]

Btw do people really think that Germany, GB and Australia wouldn't be able to pull back a group of strong riders? Even if Boonen, Gilbert, Fabian, etc. are in the break I still think a 2 minute gap can be pulled back over 50km.

 

[The Barb]

Saying GB could pull back a two minute break Box Hill is conservative. Given the form of Wiggins, Froome and Millar they could pull back four minutes. Of course, that would make it difficult for them to do much to support Cav in the finish, but still.

 

[Froome19]

Saying GB could pull back a two minute break Box Hill is conservative. Given the form of Wiggins, Froome and Millar they could pull back four minutes. Of course, that would make it difficult for them to do much to support Cav in the finish, but still.

I have a feeling that GB are consigned to being limited in their resources for the finale.

 

[sucotash]

Yeah, sure

Let's say we have ( you can easily put other guys here , or even more of them if Cav has a bad day on Box Hill)

Nibali, Gerrans, Kwiatkowski, Cancellara, Van Avermaet, LuLu Sanchez, Westra ,Albasini, Bak and B.Hagen


Wiggo, Froome and Millar will pull back 4 minutes from those guys

A stron break in a classic race is not chasing a break in Tour de France

 

[jordan5000]

Yeah, sure

Let's say we have ( you can easily put other guys here , or even more of them if Cav has a bad day on Box Hill)

Nibali, Gerrans, Kwiatkowski, Cancellara, Van Avermaet, LuLu Sanchez, Westra ,Albasini, Bak and B.Hagen


Wiggo, Froome and Millar will pull back 4 minutes from those guys

A stron break in a classic race is not chasing a break in Tour de France

I said two minutes not four, besides I have no doubt that the big teams can pull them back, imagine Cadel, Wiggins and Froome taking pulls on the front in a TTT fashion.

 

[Bavarianrider]

Btw do people really think that Germany, GB and Australia wouldn't be able to pull back a group of strong riders? Even if Boonen, Gilbert, Fabian, etc. are in the break I still think a 2 minute gap can be pulled back over 50km.

There's only one nation who is interested ina bunch sprint. That's GB, the rest has no business pedaling Cav to the Gold. There will be attacks all over the place. It is impossible for Mark Cavendish to win this race.
There will be a winner out of a small group, maybe a spint with guys like Boonen or Sagan. But no way in hell is tere any chance for a traditional sprint with pure sprinter like Cav.
Germany's main card is Degenkolb for example.

 

[Froome19]

There's only one nation who is interested ina bunch sprint. That's GB, the rest has no business pedaling Cav to the Gold. There will be attacks all over the place. It is impossible for Mark Cavendish to win this race.
There will be a winner out of a small group, maybe a spint with guys like Boonen or Sagan. But no way in hell is tere any chance for a traditional sprint with pure sprinter like Cav.
Germany's main card is Degenkolb for example.

Germany will be going full out for Greipel... unless you have some information which says differently?

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

There's only one nation who is interested ina bunch sprint. That's GB, the rest has no business pedaling Cav to the Gold. There will be attacks all over the place. It is impossible for Mark Cavendish to win this race.
There will be a winner out of a small group, maybe a spint with guys like Boonen or Sagan. But no way in hell is tere any chance for a traditional sprint with pure sprinter like Cav.
Germany's main card is Degenkolb for example.

Betfair is offering you a riskfree chance to double your money.

 

[The Barb]

Yeah, sure

Let's say we have ( you can easily put other guys here , or even more of them if Cav has a bad day on Box Hill)

Nibali, Gerrans, Kwiatkowski, Cancellara, Van Avermaet, LuLu Sanchez, Westra ,Albasini, Bak and B.Hagen


Wiggo, Froome and Millar will pull back 4 minutes from those guys

OK, sure. If you want to construct a hypothetical break made up of many of the strongest riders from each country then yes, they wouldn't pull back four minutes, or even two. That's a very specific example you've given though.

 

[Froome19]

OK, sure. If you want to construct a hypothetical break made up of many of the strongest riders from each country then yes, they wouldn't pull back four minutes, or even two. That's a very specific example you've given though.

That attack really isnt that good tbh so that scenario isnt really limited to those riders, no Boonen for starters...

 

[The Barb]

Germany will be going full out for Greipel... unless you have some information which says differently?

Exactly. Getting in a break is something you can only control to some extent, then there is always a strong element of luck in winning from a break. Greipel, however, is the second fastest sprinter (maybe third at worst). It's crazy to think Germany would be riding for Degenkolb. He's a good Plan B, but their best chance of a medal is plainly Greipel in a bunch sprint.

 

[iZnoGouD]

if for some reason Cav is not there, Wiggins will win

 

[sucotash]

OK, sure. If you want to construct a hypothetical break made up of many of the strongest riders from each country then yes, they wouldn't pull back four minutes, or even two. That's a very specific example you've given though.

You can easilt construct a stronger hypothetical break. That was just an example.

If a break goes no Box Hill it will be strong for sure. Do not expect there riders from Iran etc. Almost every rider from the strongest nations is very good.

Be aware that for 90 % of the riders racing there to get a result putting high pace on Box Hill, dropping Cav, and braking is the only way to win/get a medal.

Only two teams intrested in a slow steady race are Germany and UK. All the others know that to win they need high tempo racing on the hilly part.

 

[LesDiablesRouges]

Cav's TDF and psot TDF results

2008
4 TDF stage wins
(middle Augsut)3 Tour of Ireland stage wins (2.1 race) -DNF the race
(middle september)3 Tour of Missouri stage wins 1 2nd

2009
GT1s 6 TDF stage wins (7/4/09-7/26/09)
1st Sparkassen Giro Bochum (8/2/09)
1 stage win Tour of Ireland-withdrew stage 3 (8/22/09-8/23/09)
2 stage wins Tour of Missouri - DNS stage 4 (9/7/09-9/10/09)

2010
GT1s 5 TDF stage wins (7/3/10-7/25/10)
1.1 3rd Coppa Bernocchi (8/19/10)
GT 4 Vuelta stage wins 3 2nds 1 3rd (8/28/10-9/19/10)
DNF WC R.R.
7th Commonwealth Games

2011
GT1s 5 TDF stage wins (7/2/11-7/24/11)
1.2 1st London Surrey Cycle Classic (8/14/11)
0 Vuelta stage wins DNF 4th stage
2.1s 2 Tour of Britain stage wins and 1 2nd
1st WC R.R (9/25/11)


Hard to form any conclusion. He did very well at the Vuelta in 2010 and pulled out early in 2011

He hasn't really ridden in tough races post TDF but how many tough races are there post TDF?

 

[jordan5000]

There's only one nation who is interested ina bunch sprint. That's GB, the rest has no business pedaling Cav to the Gold. There will be attacks all over the place. It is impossible for Mark Cavendish to win this race.
There will be a winner out of a small group, maybe a spint with guys like Boonen or Sagan. But no way in hell is tere any chance for a traditional sprint with pure sprinter like Cav.
Germany's main card is Degenkolb for example.

That's one of the most ridiculous things I've heard in a while, thanks for the laugh.

 

[Tei6chai]

Be aware that for 90 % of the riders racing there to get a result putting high pace on Box Hill, dropping Cav, and braking is the only way to win/get a medal.

So, actually the only differences between London and Copenhagen are:

1. Box Hill x9
2. 5-man teams

Sure, Copenhagen was flat, but it was just as flat for GB as it was for the other 90%.

Sure, GB had 9 men in Copenhagen, but so did every other team.

The real reason that the 90% failed at Copenhagen is that they couldn't trust each other.

All the indications are that the anti-Cav 90% will make the same mistake again.

If they only unite temporally to take out Cav on Box Hill, then GB only have to ride 'on the rivet' at Box Hill.

That should be entirely containable for the likes of Wiggins, Froome, Millar and Stannard.

 

[Pippo_San]

Terpstra to pull a 50 kms solo in pristine Dutch Championship fashion.

I'm sure someone in here would risk an orgasm.

 

[hfer07]

Box Hill dissected

two videos describing Box hill. the second one includes David Harmon
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lUxlD_K3R08
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=endscreen&v=V0roSxMKeBM&NR=1

 

[hughmoore]

Looking at maps on Steephill, the finish is a long way from box hill unless im mistaken, cant see how a breakaway will stay away.



Hugh

 

[online-rider]

two videos describing Box hill. the second one includes David Harmon
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lUxlD_K3R08
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=endscreen&v=V0roSxMKeBM&NR=1

Lol, Why dont they call it Box knoll. Nice videos though.