Olympic Road Race Men

[ILovecycling]

I guess there are two realistic scenarios here:

1) Bunch sprint with Cavendish - Cav wins
2) Smaller bunch sprint without Cavendish - Sagan wins

Thats a good point,but...What about?
1) Bunch sprint with Cavendish - Sagan wins
2)Smaller bunch sprint without Cavendish - Sagan wins & celebrate 20m to go

The first scenario is possible,because stage 20 in Paris.Sagan was 2nd to Cav on Totaly! flat course.On saturday you have 9x Box hill,Cav could be little bit tired in the finish.And this is what I am talking about.Sagan has chance also in a bunch sprint with Cav.What do you think?

 

[robert_c]

Which teams have a lead-out man? GB don't

Wiggo is the new Renshaw.

I don't see a break getting away from GB that they can't control.

 

[Angliru]

I think that Wiggo should be the plan b for Britain.

He could easily get in a small group towards the end and if need be roast Sagan in a sprint.

People forget that before turning his hand to the tour he was a was pretty quick to the line as he showed in Romandy (sitting down track style). Motivation to win in London will be pretty big for him

I don't think there is enough motivation in the world to give Wiggins the boost he would need to beat Sagan in a sprint. I'd have to revisit the results of that Romandy stage to see the quality of those that couldn't come around him. I'd have to guess that it wasn't on the level of a Gilbert, Sagan or Freire.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Which teams want a sprint anyway?

-GB - Cavendish
-Slovakia - Sagan, but very small team (not even 5 men)
-Belgium - Boonen, but rather without Cavendish
-Australia - Goss, but rather without Cav
-Belarus - Hutarovich, 3 men team
-Argentina - Richeze, v small team?
-Denmark - Breschel, rather no real sprinters
-France - Demara, but 4 man team, or 3 men team because of Bourgain
-Germany - Greipel w/ strong support
-Italy - Viviani but also Nibali..
-Norway - Hagen, needs hard race to win a sprint or Kristoff, but he can't beat Cav
-Spain - Rojas, if strong sprinters are gone
-US - Tyler Farrar, but with his current speed..erm..

Enough teams have a sprinter but except for Germany and Slovakia I guess nobody really wants Cavendish there and they prefer a harder race.
Then the other non-named teams only have non-sprinters like the Netherlands, Colombia, Ireland, Portugal, Kazachstan, Switzerland, Ukraine etc. And many of the teams with sprinters also have attackers in their team just in case.

Could go either way...but with Box Hill 40km from the line it is still most likely going to be a mass sprint of +100 men. Possible even an entire peloton. It isn't harder than some of this years Tour stages which ended in mass sprints even if they had a LBL-like profile.
Smaller teams does make it a bit more interesting but if Germany and Great Britain work together a sprint is the most likely outcome

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Which teams want a sprint anyway?

-GB - Cavendish
-Slovakia - Sagan, but very small team (not even 5 men)
-Belgium - Boonen, but rather without Cavendish
-Australia - Goss, but rather without Cav
-Belarus - Hutarovich, 3 men team
-Argentina - Richeze, v small team?
-Denmark - Breschel, rather no real sprinters
-France - Demara, but 4 man team, or 3 men team because of Bourgain
-Germany - Greipel w/ strong support
-Italy - Viviani but also Nibali..
-Norway - Hagen, needs hard race to win a sprint or Kristoff, but he can't beat Cav
-Spain - Rojas, if strong sprinters are gone
-US - Tyler Farrar, but with his current speed..erm..

Enough teams have a sprinter but except for Germany and Slovakia I guess nobody really wants Cavendish there and they prefer a harder race.
Then the other non-named teams only have non-sprinters like the Netherlands, Colombia, Ireland, Portugal, Kazachstan, Switzerland, Ukraine etc. And many of the teams with sprinters also have attackers in their team just in case.

Could go either way...but with Box Hill 40km from the line it is still most likely going to be a mass sprint of +100 men. Possible even an entire peloton. It isn't harder than some of this years Tour stages which ended in mass sprints even if they had a LBL-like profile.
Smaller teams does make it a bit more interesting but if Germany and Great Britain work together a sprint is the most likely outcome

This is a rather strange race in that 2nd and 3rd can be spun as winning.

If 3 men are down the road then more or less everyone has an interest in pulling them back, even if they don't have much of a shot at first.

 

[search]

Which teams want a sprint anyway?

-Slovakia - Sagan, but very small team (not even 5 men)
[...]
-Argentina - Richeze, v small team?

Sagan and Richeze won't have any domestiques, both Slovakia and Argentina are 1-men-teams

 

[TatryTour2013]

Which teams want a sprint anyway?

-GB - Cavendish
-Slovakia - Sagan, but very small team (not even 5 men)
-Belgium - Boonen, but rather without Cavendish
-Australia - Goss, but rather without Cav
-Belarus - Hutarovich, 3 men team
-Argentina - Richeze, v small team?
-Denmark - Breschel, rather no real sprinters
-France - Demara, but 4 man team, or 3 men team because of Bourgain
-Germany - Greipel w/ strong support
-Italy - Viviani but also Nibali..
-Norway - Hagen, needs hard race to win a sprint or Kristoff, but he can't beat Cav
-Spain - Rojas, if strong sprinters are gone
-US - Tyler Farrar, but with his current speed..erm..

Enough teams have a sprinter but except for Germany and Slovakia I guess nobody really wants Cavendish there and they prefer a harder race.
Then the other non-named teams only have non-sprinters like the Netherlands, Colombia, Ireland, Portugal, Kazachstan, Switzerland, Ukraine etc. And many of the teams with sprinters also have attackers in their team just in case.

Could go either way...but with Box Hill 40km from the line it is still most likely going to be a mass sprint of +100 men. Possible even an entire peloton. It isn't harder than some of this years Tour stages which ended in mass sprints even if they had a LBL-like profile.
Smaller teams does make it a bit more interesting but if Germany and Great Britain work together a sprint is the most likely outcome

Slovakia = Sagan - there is no team at all - just one warrior against all others. See the picture on his official site: http://www.petersagan.net - selected personally by himself.

 

[CobbleStoner]

debate the difficulty of Box Hill until the cows come home, it really doesn't matter, the key factor is the 40k flat, wide, smooth run-in back to London, and the weird jet stream windy weather is back to normal summer this week so it will be hard for a small break, it will be a bunch sprint with Cav taking it

 

[robert_c]

He (Wiggo) could easily get in a small group towards the end and if need be roast Sagan in a sprint.

I just don't see Wiggo beating Sagan in a sprint.

 

[Froome19]

Germany looking very stront at the moment, Greipel seems to be on par with Cavendish at the moment and he is climbing well as well.
Degenkolb today proved he is top shape and going on his perfomance at MSR if it comes to a sprint from a group he certainly will have a chance
They then have two immensely powerful powerhouses in Martin and Grabsch who are capable of pulling the peloton for many Kms in pursuit of attacks or breaks and Martin can also pull the peloton Wiggins like to keep the pace high and dissuade attacks before the finale
And Sieberg who is Greipel's good mate and has produced some terrific leadouts for him this season.

With the way all the focus has been on GB it seems like Germany may be given a freer reign than they should be and they could really dominate this race with a perfectly balanced team.

 

[JibberJim]

Sagan and Richeze won't have any domestiques, both Slovakia and Argentina are 1-men-teams

Did the Velits brothers not want to go? Or did the 3 of them really not get enough points for more than 1 by the cut off?

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Germany looking very stront at the moment, Greipel seems to be the fastest sprinter out there and he is climbing well as well.
Degenkolb today proved he is top shape and going on his perfomance at MSR if it comes to a sprint from a group he certainly will have a chance
They then have two immensely powerful powerhouses in Martin and Grabsch who are capable of pulling the peloton for many Kms in pursuit of attacks or breaks and Martin can also pull the peloton Wiggins like to keep the pace high and dissuade attacks before the finale
And Sieberg who is Greipel's good mate and has produced some terrific leadouts for him this season.

With the way all the focus has been on GB it seems like Germany may be given a freer reign than they should be and they could really dominate this race with a perfectly balanced team.

Not sure why you've copied and pasted a week old post from another forum when the world has already moved on and proved your first sentence wrong.

 

[spalco]

I really like Cav, but I would love it if a breakaway wins. There are always those small-nation, supposedly hopeless breakaways - how cool would it be if this time a guy from Venezuela, an Iranian and an Uzbek take the medals?

 

[jordan5000]

I have no doubt that this will be won by Cav, box hill isn't big enough to give more than about a 20-30 second advantage on the peloton which will be easy to bring back unless it's the likes of Cancellara, Boonen, Gilbert, etc. and at least two of those guys are in their. It also wouldn't surprise me to see Chavanel launch and attack about 10km from the finish.

 

[jordan5000]

I really like Cav, but I would love it if a breakaway wins. There are always those small-nation, supposedly hopeless breakaways - how cool would it be if this time a guy from Venezuela, an Iranian and an Uzbek take the medals?

It'd actually suck in my opinion, the olympics are supposed to represent the top riders so seeing a "lesser" rider win an event that even the best of the best will only ride 3-4 times would be a disappointment.

 

[spalco]

Nah, that's the WC imo. The Olympics is for the small nations to pretend like they've got it too.

 

[mb2612]

Modolo is surely Italy's leader, given his success in MSR and the fact he came second to Cav in the test event, even if Viviani is the leader should it come to a sprint.

The run in will almost certainly be a tail wind all the way so a break might have a chance, but realistically I reckon a 40 man sprint, with the composition being decided by who avoids the crashes.

 

[jordan5000]

This may seem like a dumb question but whatever happened to Petacchi? He has ridden this year so is he injured or has he lost a step and is just riding the smaller races? Is Kittel riding?

 

[jrolaf]

debate the difficulty of Box Hill until the cows come home, it really doesn't matter, the key factor is the 40k flat, wide, smooth run-in back to London, and the weird jet stream windy weather is back to normal summer this week so it will be hard for a small break, it will be a bunch sprint with Cav taking it

I was led to understand that it is 50k to London, but that the first part is on narrow, bumpy and quite technical roads. Which isn't ideal for a chasing peloton, and the wide fast roads is only from the 15-20k mark. Is this wrong?

Also, a long race against the top classics riders is different from reeling in exhausted escapees in the TDF. Remember Boonen vs Sky in Roubaix...

 

[therhodeo]

It'd actually suck in my opinion, the olympics are supposed to represent the top riders so seeing a "lesser" rider win an event that even the best of the best will only ride 3-4 times would be a disappointment.

I thought that was the beauty of the Olympics. The cinderella stories.

 

[fezzer]

Kristoff said in an interview with norwegian television that he expected to be the captain. He also stated that he is as fast as EBH. The decision will be taken after som training at the course..

EBH stated in the same interview that he expected to be the captain. He is a shy guy, and have every reason the expect leader role. Lets hope not Kristoff try to win this on his own..

 

[nogav1ca]

Which teams want a sprint anyway?

I think Slovenia is also counting on sprint with Bozic and Bole (as a helper).

 

[Pentacycle]

Kristoff said in an interview with norwegian television that he expected to be the captain. He also stated that he is as fast as EBH. The decision will be taken after som training at the course..

EBH stated in the same interview that he expected to be the captain. He is a shy guy, and have every reason the expect leader role. Lets hope not Kristoff try to win this on his own..

Why are they fighting? They both have an almost zero percent chance of winning, unless EBH can suddenly handle a tough 250k race.

Teams like Belgium(Phil, Tommeke and GVA) or Germany(Greipel and Degenkolb), have a better reason to argue about who's going in as their leader.

 

[search]

Did the Velits brothers not want to go? Or did the 3 of them really not get enough points for more than 1 by the cut off?

the cut off was October 17th 2011, Top 10 nations were awarded by 5 places for the road race, 11th to 15th had 4 places allocated. Slovakia was 17th in UCI World Ranking at that time and therefor had to qualify for more starting places due to continental rankings - where they didn't feature at all (not top 20 by the end of the year).

 

[la.margna]

As easy as the route for the Olympics may be, it is still waaay harder than the pancake route from Copenhagen. So the same tactics do not apply here.

Let's just hope the classics riders bring their fighting legs on saturday, and it will get interesting....I hope...

Couldn't agree more on both statements