The Sheep said:Armstrong didn't win the tour or did well at the giro so he isn't really a good example that you can win both.
yup same goes for wiggins. it was an easy ride. Form building.
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yup same goes for wiggins. it was an easy ride. Form building.
Menchov himself did both Giro and Tour in 2008 as well, and he finished 5th and 3d, respectively. That's considerably better than Armstrong did last year, so why use Sir Lance as an example? It doesn't depend on the rider, as much as on the effort, and how much it takes out of you.tjwracer said:
Galic Ho said:
And the 2 most recent were clearly the best stage racer of their years (Indurain and Pantani), so didn't have the likes of Contador/Schlecks/Menchov/Sastre to fight in the Tour after the Giro
As for whether Evans would be more likely to be able to do what Pellizoti did last year (podium in the Giro, then KOM but 37th in the TDF) is debatable - I don't see him going in enough breaks to beat someone deliberately going for KOM (maybe Pellizotti again, or a CDE/Esukatel guy?), and don't forget that Pellizotti was not riding the TDF as leader aiming for top 10, as Nibali/Kreuzeiger clearly were (and both got decent top 10s - something BMC clearly don't have the talent for even if Evans was 1 of the top 10), so wouldn't have the "excuse" of being given a free reign in some stages to get the KOM then ride for another rider.
I for one will be interested to see if evans can even get a podium at ANY GT this year, with the team he will be taking to the Giro it will all come down to how much he is prepared to risk it all himself to get it (and on what team Liquigas do take in the end), and the TDF, without the TTT where he may get an advantage over some of the other contenders, 3rd may be the best he can hope for (and if they are organised, several teams will have stronger riders AND teams to take the fight in the mountains to negate any advantage Evans may be able to get in the ITT).
karlboss said:
It's more that he has LESS support than he had at Lotto for the mountains, and the better chance for him to win comes in a more mountainous Giro than the TDF. If he had a stronger team, I would be certain he could get a 2nd/3rd in the Giro, but for me, Sastre, team or no team (and even no team will be a stronger team than Evans') will be able to get enough time off Evans in the longer mountain stages to not lose too much on the ITT (I don't think either team will gain a significant advantage over the other on the TTT given the profile), then IF Liquigas weren't confused about who is going to be their number 1 guy they have the team to back eithe basso/pellizotti so that in the mountains they at the very least lose zero time to evans (and more likely make some time), and in the TTT would gain more advantage than evans would in the ITT. So, if he focusses on the Giro, he may get 2nd/3rd, but a) his team is still a little weak for my liking, and b) (and see below for more info on this) would then ruin his, and by extension his team's, ambitions in the TDf where they will need to perform to show the ASO that it made the correct decision in giving them the last wild card ahead of VAC.
And I am not discounting CDE, with the potential of Arroyo, Uran, breuseghin and rojas, if they take 3/4 of them with a couple of mountain goat domestiques, than they would have a potential to ruin Evans' hopes.
Also, what with BMC having the invite to the TDF means that Evans will be wary of blowing all his efforts into the Giro, podiuming and then maybe just scraping a top 20 (which would be seen to be a failure as such due to ASO already catching slack for giving them a wild card to get him ahead of Vacansoleil who have performed rather well in the races they were able to enter, including RVV where Lthey placed higher then BMC). So I can see Evans doing the Giro "for practice"maybe missing out on joining the big guns for a crucial mountain stage meaning he loses time on them, ending his chances, and using the other 2 weeks to make sure he is in top for going into the TDf, where, he comes up against Contador, the Schlecks (and others), the *other* Liquigas riders, depending on other things a potentially very strong CDE team (which could include Valverde), Menchov maybe focussed on staying on the bike and showing that he can climb with Contador/Shcleck without having done the Giro and exhausted himself, etc.
And in that crowd, I can only see him fighting for 3rd *at best*, and I reckon its too close to call in favour of Evans at the moment, we'll have to see what teams each rider takes.
theyoungest said:
That is very true the reason i did use "sir Lance" is because he was able to manage his effort well, and ride well at the tour. But you are right that it does depend on how much it takes out of the rider which is what I meant when I said it depends on the rider and the way they react to the race.
karlboss said:
Not that lofty he has done it before and is riding well so far he will get on a podium this year it just depends on which GT
tjwracer said:
Sastre is a different example entirely. Sastre podiumed in the Giro in 2009, the 2008 Vuelta and before that he won the 2008 Tour. When he raced at the Tour he had busted his **** off in 3 consecutive grand tours. Evans will be in the same situation come the Tour. To compare him to Sastre, by being fair, Cadel will need to podium in the Tour and win the Giro. That would be reasonably but not entirely equitable. I don't see it happening.
Something has to give. He can choose which race it is. But it is better to do it before mid race rather than during. He needs to decide to try and win the Giro or win the Tour. He cannot have both. He will not be thinking of a podium, despite dynamics, semantics and form indicating at best he can hope for 3rd in the Tour and 2nd at the Giro if he makes either one the primary goal. Maybe, just maybe he could pull of two third places. That is a massive ask.
ScottyMuser said:
Agree with all of it. Evans doesn't have the personality to sit back and say to himself I will go for the KOM in the Tour after putting the smack down at the Giro. He will go for the Tour. It matches his long term goals. Foolishness or going for ones dreams? A bit of both. Winning a grand tour doesn't come around very often. Winning the Tour against Contador? I need say no more. Nobody right now has the measure to do it. Maybe if you stacked one team with every other GC contender and had them tag team AC, but that ain't gonna happen.
nowadays with the fierce competition and much stringer field, it is almost impossible for someone to do the giro-tour double (there is one way.. but you know... a la ricco 2007?). and that being said the tour looks to have the strongest field this year that I can ever remember, so yeah evans going hard at the giro will mean he flops at the tour imo. And note, I totally think he should go hard at the giro, cause he can win there (though I don't think he will) whereas I give him very little chance of beating shleck at the tour, let alone AC. I'm kinda thinking this giro might be his last chance at a GT.
A part of me would like to see evans win the giro.
A part of me would like to see evans win the giro.
Sorry for my lack of knowledge, but has Cadel stated that he is going for a Giro win or just that he is going to the Giro?
Walkman said:
giro win overall and to try and do his best at the tour he has said. he will want to win though. in a recent interview, sherwen thinks he will hold back at the giro for the tour.
auscyclefan94 said:
Ok, thanks for a quick reply! Do you know if he will race any more before the Giro? Just checked out his webbsite and there were no races scheduled in April.
So, since you obvious are a fan of CE do you think he can go all out in the Giro or do you think he will hold back just a little, thinking he has a small chance on the tour?
Personally, I think he has a good chance of winning the Giro if he goes all out and if the TTT goes somewhat ok. Then I actually don't understad why he is racing the Tour insted of going for the Vuelta later in the summer, wich he actually could win too since most of the competitive riders for the GC will be exhausted from the Tour and probably not ride. Doesn't a Vuelta victory rank higher than a "good" result at the Tour?
Walkman said:
ardennes though i think he will be wroking for kroon in fw and ag. i think he will go all out at giro and a see how you go approach at the tour.
the problem I have with him doing the "all out at Giro, then see for Tour" is, due to the amount of racing he will have done, we could see him flop like last year (where he didn't even have the excuse of the Giro) and come outside the top 10, possibly top 20.
Then it becomes a question of whether the ASO where right to invite BMC on the strength of Cadel being both the rainbow jersey and a contender, as compared to Vacansoleil who have been pretty impressive in races so far this year, have one of the few French riders who have claimed yellow recently on their team, have his brother who has won a breakaway stage last year too, and are well known for their willingness to press breaks on (like Euskatel, who usually don't have a GC either, OR a sprinter unlike Vac) which adds to the race excitement.
ACF - what would you feel regarding ASO giving BMC the final wildcard if such a thing happens, say Evans podiums in the Giro, possibly wins Dauphine, but then flops and finishes, say, 15th or lower in the TDF with no airtime, none of this team in breaks etc etc? As I know you were one of the more heavily in favour of BMC getting the wildcard on the strength of having Evans who would be a GC contender?
Then it becomes a question of whether the ASO where right to invite BMC on the strength of Cadel being both the rainbow jersey and a contender, as compared to Vacansoleil who have been pretty impressive in races so far this year, have one of the few French riders who have claimed yellow recently on their team, have his brother who has won a breakaway stage last year too, and are well known for their willingness to press breaks on (like Euskatel, who usually don't have a GC either, OR a sprinter unlike Vac) which adds to the race excitement.
ACF - what would you feel regarding ASO giving BMC the final wildcard if such a thing happens, say Evans podiums in the Giro, possibly wins Dauphine, but then flops and finishes, say, 15th or lower in the TDF with no airtime, none of this team in breaks etc etc? As I know you were one of the more heavily in favour of BMC getting the wildcard on the strength of having Evans who would be a GC contender?
ScottyMuser said:
I would be dissapointed but i think he would see after the first mt stage that he would go for st victories or a jersey. i think he will do a reasonable job anyway. he definetly thinks he can do a good ride in both so we'll see. Would of rathered him to do giro and vuelta and then come back next year with a more experienced stronger squad at the tour but hopefully he can do good.
Oh dear. There may be trouble ahead for those BMC wildcards:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/feedarticle/9020719
Ballan is under investigation.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/feedarticle/9020719
Ballan is under investigation.
I think Cadel should go all out at the Giro and go for the win. Only problem is the TTT where BMC may not have it to take time on Cervelo or Liquigas, who arguably have the biggest contenders of the race win.
As for the Tour, say Cadel goes podium at the Giro (very likely) then a top 10 at the Tour, I say that justifies paying out your contract (a million dollar pay out?) to move to a proper team unit like BMC for 2-3 years.
He has maybe 3 years left in the sport, why not try your hardest to win at least one grand tour in Italy this year, then do your best to back up in a months time (no racing in between, like in 07 and 09 when he backed up with good Vuelta's). Tour is a good course for him with a long TT and no team TT. He potentially will top 5, and I actually believe he will podium at both the Giro and Tour.
At the end of the day, I would kill to have a palmares like Evans has. Living in Aus, I can see the effect he has had on cycling in this country, which is a great country despite what Gallic Ho suggests (as hilarious as Wonder Lance, that GH is.. just can't take her seriously when i lurk the forums and read Ho's comments). It's inspiring to even make a podium in France, and Evans has done it twice.
If he gets multiple podiums in all three grand tours then he will be remembered as a consistent grand tour contender, and world champion, which is a pretty good effort in my book. For what it's worth, any rider who finishes top 10 in any grand tour inspires me to get out on the bike
As for the Tour, say Cadel goes podium at the Giro (very likely) then a top 10 at the Tour, I say that justifies paying out your contract (a million dollar pay out?) to move to a proper team unit like BMC for 2-3 years.
He has maybe 3 years left in the sport, why not try your hardest to win at least one grand tour in Italy this year, then do your best to back up in a months time (no racing in between, like in 07 and 09 when he backed up with good Vuelta's). Tour is a good course for him with a long TT and no team TT. He potentially will top 5, and I actually believe he will podium at both the Giro and Tour.
At the end of the day, I would kill to have a palmares like Evans has. Living in Aus, I can see the effect he has had on cycling in this country, which is a great country despite what Gallic Ho suggests (as hilarious as Wonder Lance, that GH is.. just can't take her seriously when i lurk the forums and read Ho's comments). It's inspiring to even make a podium in France, and Evans has done it twice.
If he gets multiple podiums in all three grand tours then he will be remembered as a consistent grand tour contender, and world champion, which is a pretty good effort in my book. For what it's worth, any rider who finishes top 10 in any grand tour inspires me to get out on the bike
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