Paris-Nice 2012 - Stage 5; Onet-le-Chateau - Mende (178.5 km)

[Zam_Olyas]

In fact, it's better to be silent. Then, no one certainly doesn't notice a dislike in someone's opinion.

Even a fool is thought wise if he keeps silent, and discerning if he holds his tongue.

Even a fool, when he holdeth his peace, is counted wise: and he that shutteth his lips is esteemed a man of understanding.

 

[theyoungest]

he was also nowhere near the best on any other climbs in the vuelta.a nd the vuelta competition was other than cobo and froome, pathetic at best. mollema basically outclimbed him almost everywhere and also kessiakoff until eh got sick. also menchov who had a horrid seaosn and started badly in vuelta came through in final week and was a lot better. he will never come close to samuel sanchez either and he won't gain much time on him in itt either. remember vuelta's itt?? wiggins was not good there either. doing an itt in a gt is something a lot different and that itt in vuelta was after 10 days

Mollema outclimbed him? Mollema could barely hold his wheel when he went full throttle in the final kms of most climbs. Only on the explosive finishes Mollema was a little better.

To say he was nowhere near the best, when he spent the most time in the wind of all contenders (bar Froome, obviously) is nonsense. Let alone the fact that he had only just returned from injury, which you seem to think played no role whatsoever. VDB probably had been a little more seriously injured, but surely you're not going to argue that he was stronger than Wiggo in any way?

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

Mollema outclimbed him? Mollema could barely hold his wheel when he went full throttle in the final kms of most climbs. Only on the explosive finishes Mollema was a little better.

To say he was nowhere near the best, when he spent the most time in the wind of all contenders (bar Froome, obviously) is nonsense. Let alone the fact that he had only just returned from injury, which you seem to think played no role whatsoever. VDB probably had been a little more seriously injured, but surely you're not going to argue that he was stronger than Wiggo in any way?

as I said. wiggins was better than jvdb but not by a huge margin while jvdb was truly f'd up.

 

[Kvinto]

I was talking about a 20 second lead, so I don't see how 5 extra seconds would matter. 25 seconds is simply not enough, IMO. It's quite a decisive short TT. While it may suit Valverde much better than the prologue the time gaps will be substantial. 25 seconds is nothing.

Besides, there's no way Valverde will increase his lead by another 10 seconds in the next two (breakaway) stages with finishes that are not selective at all.

He lost 29sec in the tt of stage one. Lets say he would have lost up to 40sec if not the rain, so i think he has a chance of defending a 25sec advantage in slighty uphill tt.
These two stages are selective enough to eliminate sprinters (ie make Valverde the main favourite) and i don't think that both these stages will be won by the break. If it's not over for Valverde after today's stage, i'm sure Movistar will try to get 1 of these stages for Piti.

 

[cycladianpirate]

so did jvdb

You evidently have a different interpretation of 'in the mix' than I do...

 

[Swifty's Cakes]

he was also nowhere near the best on any other climbs in the vuelta.a nd the vuelta competition was other than cobo and froome, pathetic at best. mollema basically outclimbed him almost everywhere and also kessiakoff until eh got sick. also menchov who had a horrid seaosn and started badly in vuelta came through in final week and was a lot better. he will never come close to samuel sanchez either and he won't gain much time on him in itt either. remember vuelta's itt?? wiggins was not good there either. doing an itt in a gt is something a lot different and that itt in vuelta was after 10 days

In the Dauphine he lost 11 seconds to Rodriguez on the Glandon/La Toussiure stage. Ok its a warm up so not everyone is giving it full beans, but the most recent evidence we have from last summer says he is a good climber in a 1 week race.

It remains to be seen if he can do it over three weeks. Its easy to say he was dropped because of a lack of conditioning/tdf injury on the Angliru, but equally it could be he was in great shape and just got dropped becuase he can't recover.
The way he rode off the front on Monday makes me think an explosive acceleration in the last 500m could drop him today and gain maybe 10-15 seconds but an attack from the bottom of the monte will struggle to stay away.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

You evidently have a different interpretation of 'in the mix' than I do...

yeah they both never had a chance of winning the vuelta

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

In the Dauphine he lost 11 seconds to Rodriguez on the Glandon/La Toussiure stage. Ok its a warm up so not everyone is giving it full beans, but the most recent evidence we have from last summer says he is a good climber in a 1 week race.

It remains to be seen if he can do it over three weeks. Its easy to say he was dropped because of a lack of conditioning/tdf injury on the Angliru, but equally it could be he was in great shape and just got dropped becuase he can't recover.
The way he rode off the front on Monday makes me think an explosive acceleration in the last 500m could drop him today and gain maybe 10-15 seconds but an attack from the bottom of the monte will struggle to stay away.

keep in mind as well that as soon as the temperature raises over 30 degrees, which is very normal in the french sun in july, it's over for him as well. as we saw in the 2010 tour

 

[theyoungest]

keep in mind as well that as soon as the temperature raises over 30 degrees, which is very normal in the french sun in july, it's over for him as well. as we saw in the 2010 tour

The first Vuelta week was scorching hot, I didn't see Wiggins in serious trouble?

 

[hatcher]

same level

sierra nevada equal. only on angliru was wiggins better than mollema. kessiakoff indeed didn't do better than wiggins. I thought he did remembering how high he wa splaced in gc quite far into the race but he didn't do much worse either

You're really counting finishing places on 500 metre to a kilometre long climbs as your evidence?

The actual climbs of any distance, where there was anything like a selection made:

La Covitilla: Wiggins clearly stronger
Farrapona: Level
Angliru: Wiggins
Carbega: Mollema


Also,
1 Daniel Martin (Irl) Team Garmin-Cervelo 4:52:14
2 Bauke Mollema (Ned) Rabobank Cycling Team
3 Juan Jose Cobo Acebo (Spa) Geox-TMC 0:00:03
4 Bradley Wiggins (GBr) Sky Procycling 0:00:04
5 Christopher Froome (GBr) Sky Procycling 0:00:07

I find it especially funny that you think Mollema outclimbed Froome and Wiggins up La Covitilla.

 

[Swifty's Cakes]

keep in mind as well that as soon as the temperature raises over 30 degrees, which is very normal in the french sun in july, it's over for him as well. as we saw in the 2010 tour

hmmm not sure about that. He wasn't great in the cold that year either. Sky were generally awful in their debut season and while that can't be ignored, I dont think you can rely on their 2010 results as a stong from guide.

 

[Jaunty Monty]

On Carbega was Wiggins riding in support of Froome? It was the last stage for selection and Wiggins had a comfortable lead over Mollema to defend.

 

[Zam_Olyas]

Lets get back on track or road ..stage 5 paris-nice.

 

[hatcher]

On Carbega was Wiggins riding in support of Froome? It was the last stage for selection and Wiggins had a comfortable lead over Mollema to defend.

Not that I remember. I think he just struggled up on an empty tank.

 

[hatcher]

Lets get back on track or road ..stage 5 paris-nice.

Good idea. I'm struggling to know what to expect from any of Wiggins, Leipheimer, or Valverde today. I think, and could be entirely incorrect, that the finishes so far have helped hide Valverde's lack of top top form.

It's bad for the other two that Valverde would probably still be favourite today even at 90%. Not many real challengers that I can see.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

The first Vuelta week was scorching hot, I didn't see Wiggins in serious trouble?

there were no hard stages in the first week.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

He lost 29sec in the tt of stage one. Lets say he would have lost up to 40sec if not the rain, so i think he has a chance of defending a 25sec advantage in slighty uphill tt.
These two stages are selective enough to eliminate sprinters (ie make Valverde the main favourite) and i don't think that both these stages will be won by the break. If it's not over for Valverde after today's stage, i'm sure Movistar will try to get 1 of these stages for Piti.

The Col d'Eze is like a 18-minute effort for the winner (versus 11+ minutes for the first TT) and suits guys like Wiggins, Kloden and Leipheimer. If Valverde manages to stay within 25 seconds of Wiggins he'll probably top 5 in that stage, if not top 3. That may have been realistic for the OLD Valverde, but I think it's highly likely that he'll lose much more than that now.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

hmmm not sure about that. He wasn't great in the cold that year either. Sky were generally awful in their debut season and while that can't be ignored, I dont think you can rely on their 2010 results as a stong from guide.

I simply relie on what wiggins himself has said a number of times. that he has serious triuble in the heat

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

The Col d'Eze is like a 18-minute effort for the winner (versus 11+ minutes for the first TT) and suits guys like Wiggins, Kloden and Leipheimer. If Valverde manages to stay within 25 seconds of Wiggins he'll probably top 5 in that stage, if not top 3. That may have been realistic for the OLD Valverde, but I think it's highly likely that he'll lose much more than that now.

any thought sof kloden? yesterday his attack seem pretty strong to me

 

[Euskaltel!]

Klöden attacked... but looking strong? Dunno, he looked awful at Algarve...
It reminded me of his attack at Mur de Huy, good strong attack but got nowhere with it in the end, he'll need to do A LOT better today to be in the mix.

 

[will10]

These two stages are selective enough to eliminate sprinters (ie make Valverde the main favourite) and i don't think that both these stages will be won by the break. If it's not over for Valverde after today's stage, i'm sure Movistar will try to get 1 of these stages for Piti.

Movistar can't chase everything, every day. Stage 6 and 7 are definite breakaway days.

 

[meat puppet]

Not much faith for Valverde GC, actually, but hopefully an exciting stage. And also here's hoping that Bottle leeches onto Valv's wheel today on the mende and somehow spoils the party for Wiggo.

 

[Angliru]

It's going to be real interesting. Yes, Valverde is the only real specialist in the group of GC guys for this type of climb, so he should have the advantage, but the question is of course how sharp he is after 2 years off. He looks leaner though, so I'd expect his prologue (which would have left him farther back had he not had good weather) to suffer more than his climbing. He should be good, but we won't know until the climb.

Wiggins has never, ever shown well on a climb like this, but he's also never looked as strong as he has in the last few days, in my opinion. Leipheimer isn't suited to this type of climb either, but he's expert at a) limiting his losses and b) annoyingly exceeding expectations when he's in good form. Van Garderen has never shown anything to suggest he's really top tier at this stuff, so I don't expect anything from him, but that won't stop me from hoping his breakout performance is around the corner.

Should be a good one.

It's my guess that it's only natural that Valverde, like most of the elite riders is still building his form. Him especially because of his time away from actually racing. His sprints while successful are lacking the snap of old where he would win going away. I think that will come in time.

That said Wiggins is looking phenomenal, "in the best form of his life" which IMO isn't a bad thing this early in the season. He can back it off and build it back up when he needs to in time for his target events. I'd still like to see him on a sustained climb to see how he responds to the attacks that will be inevitable. Regardless I think this Paris-Nice is his bar illness or an ill-timed crash.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

any thought sof kloden? yesterday his attack seem pretty strong to me

Agreed, I thought it was a strong effort. Kloden still finished in the first group, too, albeit barely. Not sure if he can beat Wiggins in that TT, but he'll be up there no doubt.

 

[Zam_Olyas]

Davide cassini thinks velverde will win today. He is the guy who spoils it all for the chicken in 2007, though everyone who remember know that.