Paris-Nice 2022 (03/06 - 03/13)

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Found some time to put together a better profile of tomorrow's TT:

Considering the Jumbots' unparallelled ability to gain time on short climbs, I think they could collectively beat the Swiss riders and lock down the top-3 yet again...
There is also Mads Pedersen and Søren Kragh.

#broccolidwarfmodeoff

No, but especially the former has had splendid form this year and was not far off Ganna in Bessèges. And Kragh did some TT training yesterday with his two solo moves.
 
I hope they don‘t cancel Turini. Normally, even if it‘s snowing a little bit, this should not be too much of a problem. It‘s completely uphill. Nibali won this snowy stage in the Giro 2013.

Much will depend on the days before. If the road gets too cold, and it snows too much, it really could become problematic.

Turini MTF will be the highlight of this edition of Paris-Nice. I am sure they will 100% want to avoid to cancel it. :)
 
Reactions: Sandisfan
Will JV do another podium sweep today?
Can they do it below 16 minutes?
Very doubtful. The winning speed would have to be over 50 km/h for the times to be under 16 minutes. Last years TT had the avg speed of 49 km/h and it was less hilly than today (last years was a bit longer and had 145m meters of elevation gain, this year there are 200 meters of elevation on a shorter course). I would say the winnig time will be around 16:30 - 16:45, which would mean a winnig speed of around 48 km/h.
 
What? There’s absolutely no way that finish was close to 9%. Sure, it was a strongman’s effort more than a pure sprinting effort but noone goes that fast on a 9% gradient.
I would not be surprised if that actually was the case.

TV pictures very often leaves quite false impressions of pancake flat/false flat, but when you've had opportunities for your own experiences climbing the same finishes, they're often suprprisingly steep. Eg. my local hills with 10-15% slopes of which in a few occations have been TV broadcasted from either above or viewing front peleton, it looks far more like false flat on TV than the actual severe climbs they are in nature.

So with that in mind I would say that the riders here being indeed as much in 'climbing mode' as in 'pure sprint mode'.



(Edit sorry for 'bumping' the thread - but what can you do when a stage race is left in one and same thread and you are behind schedule on stages because of limited time and watching sages delayed).
 
Reactions: Red Rick
I would not be surprised if that actually was the case.

TV pictures very often leaves quite false impressions of pancake flat/false flat, but when you've had opportunities for your own experiences climbing the same finishes, they're often suprprisingly steep. Eg. my local hills with 10-15% slopes of which in a few occations have been TV broadcasted from either above or viewing front peleton, it looks far more like false flat on TV than the actual severe climbs they are in nature.

So with that in mind I would say that the riders here being indeed as much in 'climbing mode' as in 'pure sprint mode'.



(Edit sorry for 'bumping' the thread - but what can you do when a stage race is left in one and same thread and you are behind schedule on stages because of limited time and watching sages delayed).
You can also see the road in the top right so that at least shows it got a lot steeper in the final km.

Still judging by the speeds and gaps I dont believe it was 9% or at least that it was longer than a very short pinch
 
Reactions: Sandisfan
When I map it, the last 300 m were 6 % average, maxing out at 7.3 % (ridewithGPS). So more difficult than I expected beforehand, based on both the official and @Devil's Elbow's profile of the finale. I'd still judge the final 3 km in itself as being within reach of most pure sprinters like Cav, Groenewegen, Jakobsen etc. Recall stage 1 of the 2014 Tour, won by Kittel:

 
When I map it, the last 300 m were 6 % average, maxing out at 7.3 % (ridewithGPS). So more difficult than I expected beforehand, based on both the official and @Devil's Elbow's profile of the finale. I'd still judge the final 3 km in itself as being within reach of most pure sprinters like Cav, Groenewegen, Jakobsen etc. Recall stage 1 of the 2014 Tour, won by Kittel:

500m at 6% is probably the top end a pure sprinter can win on, and if its like 30m of elevation gain coming in flying plays a huge role too.

Pure sprinters may not get dropped but they'll waste a LOT of anaerobic capacity in the wheels if you go 40kph at a 3.5% gradient
 
Reactions: Zoetemelk-fan
When I map it, the last 300 m were 6 % average, maxing out at 7.3 % (ridewithGPS). So more difficult than I expected beforehand, based on both the official and @Devil's Elbow's profile of the finale. I'd still judge the final 3 km in itself as being within reach of most pure sprinters like Cav, Groenewegen, Jakobsen etc. Recall stage 1 of the 2014 Tour, won by Kittel:

The issue with my profiles is that the data I use (IGN maps in this case) isn't always granular enough. If I have the time I sometimes make corrections based on Streetview but that wasn't the case here.

I've always had stage 8 of the 2018 Vuelta as a decent example of a tipping point for this kind of finish - my notes indicate that that was 5.5k at 2.8% ending with 320 metres at 7.8%, so quite a bit tougher, and had a top-5 of Valverde, Sagan, Van Poppel, Ion Izagirre and Nizzolo, so that's roughly where sprinters and puncheurs are evenly matched. This was easier and therefore definitely still in favour of the (stronger) sprinters, hence why every sprinter who hadn't been dropped earlier on was up there. If it had actually been 300 metres at 9% the top-5 would have looked more like that Vuelta stage.
 

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