Paris-Nice 2023, March 5-12

[Divergence]

I see no reason why they'd straight up deny Vingegaard a spot, and as the defending champion, he'll be wearing number 1, even if Roglic rides, and turns out to be the best man for the team.

I mean it metaphorically. If the previous year's winner is there I think he gets number 1 automatically.

 

[Rackham]

Well, I think there are two things that explain the big time between Vingegaard and Pogacar today.
1.) He is obviously not in the the shape as Pogacar right now
2.) He wasted a lot of energy in his first attack and also in a second big effort when he tried to bridge to Pogacar after his attack. He cracked after the second big effort and nearly lost all the time in the last km.

So it´s a combination of managing his efforts today and his form...

Vinge either bluffed when he attacked in order to calm Pog down because he wasn't feeling so great himself (unlikely), or he completely overestimated his own strength (more likely).

I give credit where credit is due: going toe-to-toe with Pog (instead of just following his wheel like last year) was a panache move but it backfired spectacularly. So it made for good TV but it also gave Jumbo something to think about before the summer, i.e. something along the lines of "maybe Jonas V isn't as strong as we'd thought".

In any case I reckon their management expected something much more out of this race.

 

[search]

no idea how much time loss it came with, but Skjelmose finished the stage on a blue neutral service bike

 

[Elos Anjos]

Vinge either bluffed when he attacked in order to calm Pog down because he wasn't feeling so great himself (unlikely), or he completely overestimated his own strength (more likely).

I give credit where credit is due: going toe-to-toe with Pog (instead of just following his wheel like last year) was a panache move but it backfired spectacularly. So it made for good TV but it also gave Jumbo something to think about before the summer, i.e. something along the lines of "maybe Jonas V isn't as strong as we'd thought".

In any case I reckon their management expected something much more out of this race.

I reckon that the most important aspect is the mental one. Pogacar got a confidence boost to his already stratospheric capabilities and Vingo and JBV got more close to the reading that they won the Tour because of Pog's mistakes.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Yeah... or maybe he would have finished 5th instead of 6th. In any case it is not a good look for Vinge and even a worse one for JV. To deny a leadership role to the guy who has won so much for you based on a race which was very tactical is really a bad management move.
But nothing is set is stone, there might be a different rider with the number 1 at the TdF.

The guy they denied leadership still has to prove he has the level to challenge Pogačar. Right now it's quite uncertain. Of course if Roglič had dominated TA this week or if goes on to dominate Catalunya, questions can be asked, but currently they still seem to have backed their best rider.

 

[gunara]

All and all the vibes are there but still lots to learn by these P and V kiddos to reach AC - CF Andalucia hype

 

[Divergence]

The guy they denied leadership still has to prove he has the level to challenge Pogačar. Right now it's quite uncertain. Of course if Roglič had dominated TA this week or if goes on to dominate Catalunya, questions can be asked, but currently they still seem to have backed their best rider.

He has beaten Pog at the Vuelta2019 and at the Basque2021 (albeit tactics helped there) and has lost to Pog at the TdF2021. Those are their no-injury head to head encounters. Therefore, he has proven enough.
I do not think TA23 or Catalunya23 play a role because Roglič was not given a vote of confidence during the winter break.

 

[Kazistuta]

The guy got dropped by Mäder, the same one that was supposed to receive a mercy victory...

Yes, not an "on par" performance by Vingegaard today, but you're rather quickly to judge. No need to switch horses from the reigning TDF champion based on one performance- which initially seemed rather good at the first attack.

 

[Divergence]

Yes, not an "on par" performance by Vingegaard today, but you're rather quickly to judge. No need to switch horses from the reigning TDF champion based on one performance- which initially seemed rather good at the first attack.

It is not so much that Vingegaard is bad (although he was not good today). It is more about the stab in the back that Rogla got from his own team. That kinda deflated me during the winter.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

He has beaten Pog at the Vuelta2020 and at the Basque2021 (albeit tactics helped there) and has lost to Pog at the TdF2021. Those are their no-injury head to head encounters. Therefore, he has proven enough.
I do not think TA23 or Catalunya23 play a role because Roglič was not given a vote of confidence during the winter break.

Well Roglič needs to be in shape earlier than Vingegaard to be competitive in the Giro and it would be off-brand for him to sandbag races.

The races you mention are not very recent, and the current Pogačar wouldn't have lost the 2019 Vuelta by 3 minutes.

 

[kingjr]

I'd wager Pogacar is closer to peak shape due to focusing on the classics. A good Vingegaard doesn't lose that much on this climb.

He also blew himself up by trying too hard to get to Pogacar's wheel, I reckon he could have kept the gap at about 15 seconds otherwise.

 

[Red Rick]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1633503660171821059

View: https://twitter.com/ammattipyoraily/status/1633503660171821059

 

[Andy schleck]

Oh, well... Danish party's over. It was fun while it lasted.

Why danish party is over?

 

[RedheadDane]

Why danish party is over?

Before today's stage, Danish riders held three of the jerseys, and had a favourite for the overall.
Now they just have one, and the favourite for the overall exploded.

 

[Andy schleck]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1633503660171821059

View: https://twitter.com/ammattipyoraily/status/1633503660171821059

What a poor performance by pogacar, colnago is a bad bike.

 

[Red Rick]

No reason to overreact.

Vingegaard attacked, so that is one indication that he did feel good. I don't know how hard they went at different points in the climb, but the gap was most certainly much bigger than the actual strength difference cause Vingegaard tried way too hard to close Pogacar down.

Instead of a rerun of the Tour last year, it's like a rerun of last years Tirreno. But I still think Vingegaard is better than this time last year.

On to Col de La Couiolle. Both have reason to attack now. Vingegaard for GC places in first place. Pogacar because yolo reasons.

 

[Taxus4a]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1633503660171821059

View: https://twitter.com/ammattipyoraily/status/1633503660171821059

This an an ideal climb for Pumuki, so Vingegard make a bad move.

 

[Eeslliw]

Before today's stage, Danish riders held three of the jerseys, and had a favourite for the overall.
Now they just have one, and the favourite for the overall exploded.

And who took them all? Baby Merckx doesn't leave anything on the table when he finishes. No leftovers for any one .

 

[Rackham]

No reason to overreact.

Vingegaard attacked, so that is one indication that he did feel good. I don't know how hard they went at different points in the climb, but the gap was most certainly much bigger than the actual strength difference cause Vingegaard tried way too hard to close Pogacar down.

Instead of a rerun of the Tour last year, it's like a rerun of last years Tirreno. But I still think Vingegaard is better than this time last year.

On to Col de La Couiolle. Both have reason to attack now. Vingegaard for GC places in first place. Pogacar because yolo reasons.

Sure, overreacting regarding the performance isn't called for but IMO it does raise a very interesting question about the TdF 2022 & Granon in particular. Basically reopening the debate from last year, i.e. (which I'll paraphrase) "was Jonas Vingegaard much better than Pog intrinsically speaking in July, or did Pog blow himself up with tactical mistakes?"

I think the people who say Jumbo needs two leaders to beat Pog in the TdF now have a valid point. I also wonder what Jumbo's internal data showed regarding the relative strength of Vingegaard versus Pogacar right here & now in early 2023. I mean what we saw on the road was a classic example of a rider going hard with an attack before blowing up, something he didn't even need to do because he was ahead in GC.

If Vingegaard was on the fence regarding his form, he probably would have played it safe (i.e. if Jumbo believed he was not ready yet he would have been more conservative). But that's not what happened, i.e. he went in all guns blazing with a massive attack (almost with what appeared like his own 'yolo' reason).

It's like he thought he had way more power in his legs than he did.

 

[Cookster15]

Well, it's only early March and that was only a shortish climb but certainly Vingegaard won't be pleased to have been comprehensively dropped like that. I think he was testing where he was at. Well, he got this answer and maybe that was a psychological blow.

Still, Vingo seems better than this time last season and he can still bounce back on Col de La Couiolle and in the ensuing months. So, I am not reading much into today except that it was a confidence booster for Pog and maybe an early season reality check for JV.

Maybe Vingegaard and JV are wary that Pog is wholly focused on setting the record straight so felt they needed to be in better form earlier to counter the expected Pogacar onslaught?

 

[Taxus4a]

Sure, overreacting regarding the performance isn't called for but IMO it does raise a very interesting question about the TdF 2022 & Granon in particular. Basically reopening the debate from last year, i.e. (which I'll paraphrase) "was Jonas Vingegaard much better than Pog intrinsically speaking in July, or did Pog blow himself up with tactical mistakes?"

I think the people who say Jumbo needs two leaders to beat Pog in the TdF now have a valid point. I also wonder what Jumbo's internal data showed regarding the relative strength of Vingegaard versus Pogacar right here & now in early 2023. I mean what we saw on the road was a classic example of a rider going hard with an attack before blowing up, something he didn't even need to do because he was ahead in GC.

If Vingegaard was on the fence regarding his form, he probably would have played it safe (i.e. if Jumbo believed he was not ready yet he would have been more conservative). But that's not what happened, i.e. he went in all guns blazing with a massive attack (almost with what appeared like his own 'yolo' reason).

It's like he thought he had way more power in his legs than he did.

Vingegard was stronger, becouse you dont win le Tour in 6 Km climbs. But of coursse he use the team perfectly and Poggy did the mistake to consider Roglic a big rival.

 

[Poursuivant]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1633499380891230211

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/VegarKulset/status/1633499380891230211

 

[Andy schleck]

Sure, overreacting regarding the performance isn't called for but IMO it does raise a very interesting question about the TdF 2022 & Granon in particular. Basically reopening the debate from last year, i.e. (which I'll paraphrase) "was Jonas Vingegaard much better than Pog intrinsically speaking in July, or did Pog blow himself up with tactical mistakes?"

I think the people who say Jumbo needs two leaders to beat Pog in the TdF now have a valid point. I also wonder what Jumbo's internal data showed regarding the relative strength of Vingegaard versus Pogacar right here & now in early 2023. I mean what we saw on the road was a classic example of a rider going hard with an attack before blowing up, something he didn't even need to do because he was ahead in GC.

If Vingegaard was on the fence regarding his form, he probably would have played it safe (i.e. if Jumbo believed he was not ready yet he would have been more conservative). But that's not what happened, i.e. he went in all guns blazing with a massive attack (almost with what appeared like his own 'yolo' reason).

It's like he thought he had way more power in his legs than he did.

It doesn't mean to much what happened today. Vingegaard was also dropped by pogacar last year at TA. Pogacar can ride very well all year. Vingegaard is slowly building for july.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

What a poor performance by pogacar, colnago is a bad bike.

Let's ask Fabio Aru his opinion on tadej performance with Colnago bikes

 

[Rackham]

It doesn't mean to much what happened today. Vingegaard was also dropped by pogacar last year at TA. Pogacar can ride very well all year. Vingegaard is slowly building for july.

He wasn't slowly building towards anything today, he literally attacked Pogacar on a Cat 1 climb to win a world tour stage race. It seems to me like the "he's building form" stuff is just a form of fans coping.

I mean it was a real defeat on the road, not some lol worthy 'who cares' moment. It's clear if the roles had been reversed, the 'concern' about Pogacar's level would have absolutely involved talk of last year's TdF (along with all the extrapolations regarding his level versus Vingegaard).