Paris-Nice 2024, March 3-10

[Volderke]

With 2 stages to go, I really enjoy how this PN is going in terms of racing, plot twists, tactics and so on.

It's clear both Remco and Roglic neutralized eachother too much so others that aren't necessarily (much) weaker on the climbs (Jorgensen, Skjelmose) could ride away.
Things are now complicated and the only way anyone over a minute can win, is by taking at least half a minute today and hope for the best tomorrow. The problem is: I don't see anyone take half a minute on Skjelmose, and while I think Jorgensen and McNulty are a bit more susceptible to a weak moment uphill, the way they are riding now it will be hard as well to take structural time back (i.e. not the bonus or some seconds at the line). (I do not consider Plapp a viable contender for winning PN at this moment).

I can see 2 scenarios:
1. the current GC riders (especially Jorgensen and Skjelmose, I don't consider McNulty resilient enough uphill) are strong enough, and one of them wins PN. 70% chance
2. one or more of the riders a minute down does a 'coup' on the very last day (preferably after already won some time back on some if not all of the riders within a minute in GC). 30% chance.

My current pick for winning this race is Skjelmose. Not because he has most chances of winning, but because I would like to see him win and I believe he can pull it off: I see him as the strongest uphill, so I see him taking time today, and I see him following (or even initiating) a coup on the last day, and if he is in the company of e.g. a good Remco, he could take victory.

 

[Netserk]

Well, as turned out, he was dedicating the win the Byskov.

I couldn’t find Skjelmose mention anything about his celebration yesterday, do you have a link?

 

[RedheadDane]

I couldn’t find Skjelmose mention anything about his celebration yesterday, do you have a link?

Ask carolina. She was the one who posted it had been mentioned on Portuguese ES.

Regarding Skjelmose celebration, according to portuguese eurosport, it's a dedication to a teammate that died several years ago. He was run over by a car during a trainning ride.

There's also this article from last year:

Mattias Skjelmose never gives up

Danish cyclist Mattias Skjelmose has experienced more than most people these past four years. Rouleur talks to him about growing up at high speed

www.rouleur.cc

On May 31, 2019, 18-year-old national team rider Andreas Byskov Sarbo was hit by a car during a cycling race in the town of Odder in Jutland when the driver encroached on the race route. A young person passed away, a great rider, and one of Mattias Skjelmose’s few really good friends.

 

[Lequack]

Today's stage is early, finishes at 15:00 CET already. Coverage starts @ 13:20.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Ask carolina. She was the one who posted it had been mentioned on Portuguese ES.

There's also this article from last year:

Mattias Skjelmose never gives up

Danish cyclist Mattias Skjelmose has experienced more than most people these past four years. Rouleur talks to him about growing up at high speed

www.rouleur.cc

If my memory serves me, i believe Skjelmose is in fact a religeous person. Doesn't he also have a necklace with a cross or something?
If he wants to dedicate his win to a lost friend, that's beautiful. But i do think it's strange that he would do that now, while he already won TDS last year. Considering his friend has been gone 5 years, you would expect him to have dedicated earlier victories, no? Also find it strange that this story pops up through Portuguese ES.

 

[Lequack]

I think everyone is just lucky that Vingegaard chose Tirreno this year, or this race would've been over already.

 

[RedheadDane]

If he wants to dedicate his win to a lost friend, that's beautiful. But i do think it's strange that he would do that now, while he already won TDS last year.

At TdS last year, there was someone else on everyone's minds.

But, yeah... definitely not my first thought when I saw it either.

 

[Kazistuta]

It's because young Danes haven't learnt how to behave (they lack Bildung, as the Germans would say). Like when Vingegaard puts his hand to the chest when the national anthem is played. They've watched too much TV with no adults sitting next to them to provide them context with context.

So what context do you need the adults to provide them, that you apparently think they didn't learn? The fact that most Danes seem quite indifferent reg. religion doesn't mean Skjelmose can't be religious, and perhaps I need context from an adult as well, because here I thought honoring the national anthem with holding your hand against your heart simply meant being proud of ones country??

 

[Netserk]

So what context do you need the adults to provide them, that you apparently think they didn't learn? The fact that most Danes seem quite indifferent reg. religion doesn't mean Skjelmose can't be religious, and perhaps I need context from an adult as well, because here I thought honoring the national anthem with holding your hand against your heart simply meant being proud of ones country??

I think Vingegaard placed his left hand on the right side of his chest, not over his heart.

Doesn't he also have a necklace with a cross or something?

IIRC, that necklace is his mother's, and is mostly about riding for her.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

So now we have UAE and Visma at #1 and #2. Once again the secondaries of these two teams are stronger than the leaders of the other teams. Their dominance seems to be even bigger than last year.

TI believe that Jorgensen was always team leader for Visma here, and McNulty co-leader.

If you are referring to those two as being secondaries in their entire squads, then I would suggest that yesterday's results were far more about tactics and decisions than strength.

I wouldn't dispute that those two are the strongest teams, probably to an unhealthy degree, but I don't think this is the proof of it.

 

[Bolder]

With 2 stages to go, I really enjoy how this PN is going in terms of racing, plot twists, tactics and so on.

It's clear both Remco and Roglic neutralized eachother too much so others that aren't necessarily (much) weaker on the climbs (Jorgensen, Skjelmose) could ride away.
Things are now complicated and the only way anyone over a minute can win, is by taking at least half a minute today and hope for the best tomorrow. The problem is: I don't see anyone take half a minute on Skjelmose, and while I think Jorgensen and McNulty are a bit more susceptible to a weak moment uphill, the way they are riding now it will be hard as well to take structural time back (i.e. not the bonus or some seconds at the line). (I do not consider Plapp a viable contender for winning PN at this moment).

I can see 2 scenarios:
1. the current GC riders (especially Jorgensen and Skjelmose, I don't consider McNulty resilient enough uphill) are strong enough, and one of them wins PN. 70% chance
2. one or more of the riders a minute down does a 'coup' on the very last day (preferably after already won some time back on some if not all of the riders within a minute in GC). 30% chance.

My current pick for winning this race is Skjelmose. Not because he has most chances of winning, but because I would like to see him win and I believe he can pull it off: I see him as the strongest uphill, so I see him taking time today, and I see him following (or even initiating) a coup on the last day, and if he is in the company of e.g. a good Remco, he could take victory.

Skjelmose is also my pick, but I could see one or the other of McNulty/Jorgensen hanging on. (Both of them are not consistent top level climbers, but have had their days).

I suspect Remco is going to have a good dig in the last longish climb, and he'll likely be able to create a gap but I think there are enough good riders willing to work to limit it.

 

[Netserk]

Jorgenson was mighty strong yesterday, while McNulty blew up a bit following Rogla and was dropped for some time.

Unless Evenepoel gets away on Peille with one of them, I don't think his two companions from yesterday can challenge Matteo.

 

[Taxus4a]

The stage in Tirreno is nice and we coudl see a good stage (I love that race) but now Paris Nice has more interest. The 2 stronger riders for the 2 stages remaining are pretty far from the leader. Cyclist is always interesting when is like this, more than when the favourite is leader like Vingegaard- The second case is to admire and the first to enjoy (although I enjoy both cases). Anyway, anything can happen and to be an spectacular stage at Tirreno and boring at Nice. But condictions are ideal in the second case.

Skjelmose, Jorgenson and Mc Nulty are very strong. They maybe are not top riders for a GT in this great generation, but they can win Paris Nice to anybody. And now thay have advantage. Buitrago looked the stronger at the climbs, and for sure he will try at least any stage more.

It doesnt look Remco is so strong, but you can always think something great can came for him. Roglic has to play his cards as well, so the race is interesting, but I dont think he will win, Maybe he is not on the podium. I dont consider him one of the riders who make this generation excepcional, but of course is one of the best GC riders today in the World, and he is a warrior, so if he has legs he is not going to especulate.

 

[Salvarani]

Jorgenson was mighty strong yesterday, while McNulty blew up a bit following Rogla and was dropped for some time.

Unless Evenepoel gets away on Peille with one of them, I don't think his two companions from yesterday can challenge Matteo.

Agreed, but I rate Skjelmose as a racer. I wouldnt be surprised if him and Jorgenson slips away from the others tomorrow. Both showed they are pretty strong.

McNulty has done well so far but can struggle at times. I still remember when he had the lead in Basque Country and lost it on the final stage, a similar stage to the one tomorrow. He is in the lead now as well but I can see him be dropped or make a mistake and not make it back tomorrow. He won Valenciana though, then got sick but might be on a roll here.

 

[shadowrider]

The stage in Tirreno is nice and we coudl see a good stage (I love that race) but now Paris Nice has more interest. The 2 stronger riders for the 2 stages remaining are pretty far from the leader. Cyclist is always interesting when is like this, more than when the favourite is leader like Vingegaard- The second case is to admire and the first to enjoy (although I enjoy both cases). Anyway, anything can happen and to be an spectacular stage at Tirreno and boring at Nice. But condictions are ideal in the second case.

Skjelmose, Jorgenson and Mc Nulty are very strong. They maybe are not top riders for a GT in this great generation, but they can win Paris Nice to anybody. And now thay have advantage. Buitrago looked the stronger at the climbs, and for sure he will try at least any stage more.

It doesnt look Remco is so strong, but you can always think something great can came for him. Roglic has to play his cards as well, so the race is interesting, but I dont think he will win, Maybe he is not on the podium. I dont consider him one of the riders who make this generation excepcional, but of course is one of the best GC riders today in the World, and he is a warrior, so if he has legs he is not going to especulate.

I really think Ayuso (hopeless second in the Tirreno) is a better rider than Sjkelmose, McNulty etc. So yes, in the Tirreno, the field of participants is of a higher level than the field in P-N. Vingegaard would have destroyed Roglic, Evenepoel, Jorgenson, Skjelmose, McNulty, Almeida etc. if in the same race.

 

[AnotherArmChair]

I really think Ayuso (hopeless second in the Tirreno) is a better rider than Sjkelmose, McNulty etc. So yes, in the Tirreno, the field of participants is of a higher level than the field in P-N. Vingegaard would have destroyed Roglic, Evenepoel, Jorgenson, Skjelmose, McNulty, Almeida etc. if in the same race.

yes Vingegaard would have destroyed PN field but that doesn't mean the rest at T/A are stronger than PN field

Vingegaard would destroy everyone except Pog ...he would just beat Pog uphill after about 10 days of Pog trying

That is why I lament the Tour this year ...Pog wont have the legs to try and try and try and try and try

I have hope that Sjkelmose, Ayuso, El Toro , Uijtdebroeks will all get stronger

Not so much Roglic nor Evenepol on long climbs (sure stronger than they are at PN of course but not better than Vinge or Pog ever)

​

 

[Salvarani]

yes Vingegaard would have destroyed PN field but that doesn't mean the rest at T/A are stronger than PN field

Vingegaard would destroy everyone except Pog ...he would just beat Pog uphill after about 10 days of Pog trying

That is why I lament the Tour this year ...Pog wont have the legs to try and try and try and try and try

I have hope that Sjkelmose, Ayuso, El Toro , Uijtdebroeks will all get stronger

Not so much Roglic nor Evenepol on long climbs (sure stronger than they are at PN of course but not better than Vinge or Pog ever)

​

Great riders but I wonder how much more Skjelmose and Ayuso can improve from where they are at now, that they will/can in the near future be a rival to Vingegaard or Pog. I just dont see it happening.

I think Uijtebroeks will find it hard as well.

El Toro, maybe. I think he has the most room for improvement but still questions on how he will handle the high mountains against the best.

 

[Netserk]

Ineos chasing in the peloton.

 

[Salvarani]

Bad weather.

 

[Tim Cahill]

Skjelmose has greater pedigree on hilly stages like yesterday than Ayuso etc, no big mountains yet but I'm not sure Jonas is hard dropping everyone here on 1.8k @ 10%, he would've today though.

Good to see Ineos recognising the GC threat of Benjamin Thomas, a mere 40 minutes back.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

The race to the drizzle

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

.

Imitation is the most sincere form of flattery

 

[Tricycle Rider]

Bad weather.

Heli shots are no good because of the low clouds, can't even see the riders. (Under different circumstances the scenery is lovely though.)

 

[Netserk]

QS at the front now with one rider. Visma-LAB behind him.

 

[Salvarani]

Could have been splits on the descent if anyone would have gone for it