Paris-Roubaix 2023, one day monument, April 9 (men's)

[proffate]

On rewatching, I feel like WVA could have been more tactical in the final sprint. He needs to stick to the bottom of the track so Philipsen either has to wait for the last 50m to pass or has to go uphill to pass. Riders need to have a plan for such a situation since it comes up so often.

 

[jmdirt]

A lot of talk about luck...
-Certainly there is 'bad luck': a spectator steps out, the racer in front of you crashes, etc...
-People 'make their luck' too though: equipment choice is a big one, line choice, positioning (to an extent), etc...
I don't know WvA's tire choice, psi, etc. so I can't discuss it without "was he ...".
--was he running too light, too narrow, too low psi, was he using sealant?

 

[Red Rick]

A lot of talk about luck...
-Certainly there is 'bad luck': a spectator steps out, the racer in front of you crashes, etc...
-People 'make their luck' too though: equipment choice is a big one, line choice, positioning (to an extent), etc...
I don't know WvA's tire choice, psi, etc. so I can't discuss it without "was he ...".
--was he running too light, too narrow, too low psi, was he using sealant?

If we're gonna call mechanicals a skill issue then crash dodging should also be.

 

[jmdirt]

Both Wout and Mathieu are huge sportsmen and both have shown grace both in winning and in losing. Both also have toxic fans. This is inevitable. It’s not like the one’s fanbase is more toxic than the other, but that’s the case for most great riders. For example, I wouldn’t engage with several Evenepoel fans on this forum.

Anyway, any real cycling fan should be disappointed with Wout’s puncture. Seeing Mathieu and Wout in a sprint a deux on the Velodrome after such a battle is a dream scenario for anyone who is a cycling romanticist.

This is not to say that Mathieu isn’t a deserving winner. He animated the race and attacked the most. Any of Wout or Mathieu would have been a deserving winner today. No one in here can say the one would have beaten the other in a sprint. It’s fanboyism to say you “know for sure”. They’ve both gotten the better of each other in a sprint in many different races.

Chapeau Mathieu, you beast.

What about someone like me who is a fan of both?

 

[nightowl]

Ia this a conspiracy?

Jumbo will have bib 21 at LBL…..maybe Wout should give it a go after all

 

[jmdirt]

If we're gonna call mechanicals a skill issue then crash dodging should also be.

Making a decision is a skill. People make wise equipment choices, and they make wise avoidance choices as well, but sometimes there is no avoidance.

ie: sealant adds weight so many pro racers will likely not use it (depending on equipment set up). If they get a puncture, sealant could save the day.

 

[jono]

I'm no fan of Chris Horner's analysis (or more accurately: I can't listen to more than a few seconds as he butchers every name) but this race is one of those times where his butterfly effect motif actually makes sense. What happens without the Degenkolb crash? Does Wout attack? If so, does he make the gap (both Philipsen and MVDP lost of a ton of speed in that incident)? If Wout doesn't attack, does he flat?

For me, without the crash this race comes to the line with 7 (or 5 or 4 but more than 1). Whether you'd prefer that outcome is a matter of taste. Alpecin probably still wins if that's the case (Philipsen) but an entirely different story would have been told.

 

[Red Rick]

Making a decision is a skill. People make wise equipment choices, and they make wise avoidance choices as well, but sometimes there is no avoidance.

ie: sealant adds weight so many pro racers will likely not use it (depending on equipment set up). If they get a puncture, sealant could save the day.

No matter what, mechanicals are a very stochastic event, even just the location of it. Van Aert flatted at literally the worst moment possible, I don't see how you can say that's not terrible luck

 

[ice&fire]

This is probably the biggest what-if I recall since TDF 2014. Whatever. The end of the MVDP vs WVA spring season and the Ardennes classics with Pogacar vs a bunch of subpar contenders, leaves me with a 27-days countdown to Remco vs Roglic.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

What a race! Congrats to MVP on finally winning the PR. The decisive action was started by JV guys over 100 km before the line and after Arenberg all the top guys were already in the front group. What a drama on Carrefour de l'Arbre! Degenkolp was down (after colliding with MVP, who narrowly escaped), then WVA attacks hard with MVP following and then WVA punctures in the worst possible moment! Terrible luck. MVP goes solo and wins his 4th monument.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Ia this a conspiracy?

Give the 21 to Rui Costa in Liege!

 

[rallybanana]

First since Cancellara to have those 3 (MSR, RVV, PR) in his collection?

Best combined results in those 3 races in a single season since 1986 - when Sean Kelly got the exact same results.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

A lot of talk about luck...
-Certainly there is 'bad luck': a spectator steps out, the racer in front of you crashes, etc...
-People 'make their luck' too though: equipment choice is a big one, line choice, positioning (to an extent), etc...
I don't know WvA's tire choice, psi, etc. so I can't discuss it without "was he ...".
--was he running too light, too narrow, too low psi, was he using sealant?

He hadn't punctured all day, clearly bad choice in pressure or tires...?

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

First time with a good preparation. After Sanremo I said here that he could be in for a masterclass, only a super Pogi in his way. A shame he doesn't ride Liege in this form. But with Pogi and Remco it would be difficult.

I know he wanted to win RVV solo as well. But Pogacar got in the way, or he'd have won all 3 solo. Sad

 

[QueenStagiaire]

I'm no fan of Chris Horner's analysis (or more accurately: I can't listen to more than a few seconds as he butchers every name) but this race is one of those times where his butterfly effect motif actually makes sense. What happens without the Degenkolb crash? Does Wout attack? If so, does he make the gap (both Philipsen and MVDP lost of a ton of speed in that incident)? If Wout doesn't attack, does he flat?

For me, without the crash this race comes to the line with 7 (or 5 or 4 but more than 1). Whether you'd prefer that outcome is a matter of taste. Alpecin probably still wins if that's the case (Philipsen) but an entirely different story would have been told.

If it comes down to a group of seven, Degenkolb has won 100% of sprints for the win from that group size in, like, the last 30 years of Roubaix.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I agree. If Wout was that strong. He would have eaten into MVDP’s lead. He’s the better timetrialer after all. Wout rode a great race up till that point. But it was up to him to chase down MVDP if he wanted to win. He didn’t because he couldn’t or else he had a brain fart.

WVA also said he knew after the flat the win was gone because no way you can close 25s to VDP in that shape. So it's unlikely he could've kept 20 meters on VDP after the attack after Degenkolb crash. I don't buy for one moment he could've gone solo to the line. Most likely they'd either end up in a two up sprint or VDP would stop working and Philipsen would come back leading to a new race.

 

[Red Rick]

WVA also said he knew after the flat the win was gone because no way you can close 25s to VDP in that shape. So it's unlikely he could've kept 20 meters on VDP after the attack after Degenkolb crash. I don't buy for one moment he could've gone solo to the line. Most likely they'd either end up in a two up sprint or VDP would stop working and Philipsen would come back leading to a new race.

Closing 25s vs holding a gap are hardly the same. Especially at the end of Carrefour when you've just blown through all your anaerobic excess anyway, so it's not like there's much left to snap close a gap.

 

[Red Rick]

Pogacar vs a bunch of subpar contenders

I expect Evenepoel to be in better form that Pogacar

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

Ah here. I don’t think “fault” or “blame” are words that should be thrown around either way, but to blame Degenkolb for his own crash is really pushing it.

Overall I very much agree to this POV and was also mine in my first post about the indicent on the live signal.
My 2nd post is related to the ones posting about "fault" or "blame", that I watched the episode again a few times (and now again), in which case the "blame" must lie on Degenkolb's own shoulders - unlike those wanting a DSQ from either Philipsen , MdVP or both. Which is not only pushing it but directly wrong IMHO.
In generel I'm inclined to 'a racing incident', too.
Edit: Now been re-watching the incident at least 15 times, with the eyes of first Philipsen, then as MvDP and then as Degenkolp and a couple of times more - which just convinces me even more.

 

[DNP-Old]

I agree. If Wout was that strong. He would have eaten into MVDP’s lead. He’s the better timetrialer after all. Wout rode a great race up till that point. But it was up to him to chase down MVDP if he wanted to win. He didn’t because he couldn’t or else he had a brain fart.

Why do people like posts like these?

 

[Lequack]

Vingegaard could've won this. I heard it has more climbing meters than Gent-Wevelgem

https://twitter.com/x/status/1645147972957528065

View: https://twitter.com/BenjiNaesen/status/1645147972957528065

 

[Red Rick]

Why do people like posts like these?

Because they're sore winners. Which honestly is more annoying than sore losers.

 

[ChewbaccaDefense]

A lot of talk about luck...
-Certainly there is 'bad luck': a spectator steps out, the racer in front of you crashes, etc...
-People 'make their luck' too though: equipment choice is a big one, line choice, positioning (to an extent), etc...
I don't know WvA's tire choice, psi, etc. so I can't discuss it without "was he ...".
--was he running too light, too narrow, too low psi, was he using sealant?

This is my question. If not, why in the f**k not? This is 2023, sure sealant adds a little rotational weight...but it will also save your ass.

 

[Lequack]

Meanwhile

 

[ChewbaccaDefense]

If we're gonna call mechanicals a skill issue then crash dodging should also be.

And side of the road barrier dodging...MVDP came 2 centimeters from going a$$ over head when he was solo.