Peter Sagan discussion thread.

[tobydawq]

Maybe it will be like the Tour stage of 2017.

 

[WheelofGear]

It's not just the finish in Ans that is removed, it's Saint-Nicolas as well.

They have promised to place the finish in the urban area of Liege.

 

[WheelofGear]

And Sagan will be destroyed in Liege after a long season and new course. Matthews wasn't up there because the race was harder last year.

It will be won by a rider like Dumoulin.

 

[Koronin]

It'll be interesting to see him at Liege, but I don't think he has any realistic shot at winning it, esp if it's raced hard like it was this year. As for winning, I think Valverde has a better shot at winning Flanders than Sagan has at winning Liege.

There are plenty of things for Sagan to go after, and MSR seems like it's a better goal for him than Liege would be.

 

[tobydawq]

Re:

It'll be interesting to see him at Liege, but I don't think he has any realistic shot at winning it, esp if it's raced hard like it was this year. As for winning, I think Valverde has a better shot at winning Flanders than Sagan has at winning Liege.

There are plenty of things for Sagan to go after, and MSR seems like it's a better goal for him than Liege would be.

But it wouldn't be that surprising if he is a little bit tired of the randomness of MSR. After all, he has placed top 12 every year since 2012.

That time was maybe his best shot, but his stunt against Nibali in Chieti the previous week in Tirreno probably assured that he wasn't allowed to try catching the front trio on the descent of the Poggio, which was mind-numbingly stupid and frustrating to watch.

Then of course, he screwed it up himself the following year by underestimating Ciolek. In 2014 and 2015 he wasn't good nor fast enough and in 2016 Gaviria's idiocy made him miss another chance. Then came the sprint of Kwiato's life in 2017 and an anonymous 6th place this year.

He will never forgo the race but he is unlikely to peak for it as it's not a race where you need to be at peak to win because of the randomness. Better to be stronger for the other monuments.

As for his chances at LIège, it's pretty difficult to provide an educated opinion when they haven't revealed the new route yet.

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

It'll be interesting to see him at Liege, but I don't think he has any realistic shot at winning it, esp if it's raced hard like it was this year. As for winning, I think Valverde has a better shot at winning Flanders than Sagan has at winning Liege.

There are plenty of things for Sagan to go after, and MSR seems like it's a better goal for him than Liege would be.

But it wouldn't be that surprising if he is a little bit tired of the randomness of MSR. After all, he has placed top 12 every year since 2012.

That time was maybe his best shot, but his stunt against Nibali in Chieti the previous week in Tirreno probably assured that he wasn't allowed to try catching the front trio on the descent of the Poggio, which was mind-numbingly stupid and frustrating to watch.

Then of course, he screwed it up himself the following year by underestimating Ciolek. In 2014 and 2015 he wasn't good nor fast enough and in 2016 Gaviria's idiocy made him miss another chance. Then came the sprint of Kwiato's life in 2017 and an anonymous 6th place this year.

He will never forgo the race but he is unlikely to peak for it as it's not a race where you need to be at peak to win because of the randomness. Better to be stronger for the other monuments.

As for his chances at LIège, it's pretty difficult to provide an educated opinion when they haven't revealed the new route yet.

Who knows, maybe they both don't like MSR as well as other races for similar reasons as well.

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

It'll be interesting to see him at Liege, but I don't think he has any realistic shot at winning it, esp if it's raced hard like it was this year. As for winning, I think Valverde has a better shot at winning Flanders than Sagan has at winning Liege.

There are plenty of things for Sagan to go after, and MSR seems like it's a better goal for him than Liege would be.

It's an interesting question as to who's more likely to win the other race, but I definitely lean toward Sagan. Still, we need to see how the new route turns out.

Reason I think Sagan is that he has a much clearer win condition than Valverde, and Valverde does not like nervous races and lacks experience racing in those kinds of races. Also, Sagan has won races on similar terrain to LBL.

If Sagan focused on it, he could do it.

 

[Red Rick]

As for the new route, everything depends on what happens with the stretch before La Redoute. Cause that ruins the race.

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

It'll be interesting to see him at Liege, but I don't think he has any realistic shot at winning it, esp if it's raced hard like it was this year. As for winning, I think Valverde has a better shot at winning Flanders than Sagan has at winning Liege.

There are plenty of things for Sagan to go after, and MSR seems like it's a better goal for him than Liege would be.

It's an interesting question as to who's more likely to win the other race, but I definitely lean toward Sagan. Still, we need to see how the new route turns out.

Reason I think Sagan is that he has a much clearer win condition than Valverde, and Valverde does not like nervous races and lacks experience racing in those kinds of races. Also, Sagan has won races on similar terrain to LBL.

If Sagan focused on it, he could do it.

I think that goes back to Sagan is like most riders who have a real peak which is noticeable. I think Christian VandeVelde is correct that Valverde doesn't actually ever peak and just brings himself to a certain level (maybe just under peak) that he can hold for extended periods of time. You're right Valverde doesn't like nervous races, and those don't seem to bother Sagan. As for lack of experience, at 38 not sure that's really an issue for him even though he hasn't raced cobbled races very often. I'd think lack of experience for Sagan at LBL would be a bigger issue.

 

[WheelofGear]

We could place them on a scale like this to rate their abilities as a classics rider:
Lombardia <--- Liege <--- Strade/Amstel ---> Flanders ---> Roubaix.

V for Valverde, S for Sagan.
Lombardia <--- Liege <V-- Strade/Amstel -S-> Flanders ---> Roubaix.

Sagan should have a better shot at winning Liege but it's clearly not ideal for him. Sanremo is not in the equation. It's a joker's race.

Closest to Lombardia you have a diesel climber like Nieve who is often competitive in the race. Closest to Roubaix, you have a huge, 80 kg+ lead-out man from a sprinter team.

 

[WheelofGear]

In the pure middle, you have riders like Moscon, Kwiatkowski, Benoot.

 

[Nirvana]

Sagan should have tried Liege in his Liquigas days or first one with Tinkoff when he was 73/74 kilos and was able to put on decent to good climbing performances in multiple occasions, now that in the recent seasons has decided to put on weight to be better on cobbles/sprints and according to himself he's around 80 kilos he can only hope in a non contest (or very light raced) situation that will end in a group sprint.

Otherwise after winning Roubaix he has decided to remove the extra weight and return to his former self but I doubt, to me looks like he prefers to win bunch sprints like in recent seasons rather than put on a show in harder stages like when he was younger, and it's sad because he could have been a way greater rider if he wouldn't have chosen the durable sprinter confort zone.

 

[dastott]

What weight was Sagan when he won ToC overall? I also preferred him when he was lighter. Seemed much more versatile then.

 

[Koronin]

Re:

What weight was Sagan when he won ToC overall? I also preferred him when he was lighter. Seemed much more versatile then.

As that was a couple of years ago, I'd guess he was a bit lighter. I agree he is more versatile when he races at a lighter weight.

 

[Nirvana]

The first year at Tinkoff he was still the same of Liquigas, I think he decided to change something the following winter after finishing the Tour with zero win for the second straight year and the non so good spring classics campaign. At the beginning of 2016 he wasn't anymore the same seen until previous year Tour climbing wise.

 

[Leinster]

Re:

Interesting decision.

I think a later start also makes it harder to be great in Sanremo.

Thing is, San Remo is more about staying in the right place and following the right wheels at the right times than about necessarily being in tippy-toppy shape. Sagan’s been the strongest rider in the race at MSR on at least 2 occasions, and finished 2nd both times. Nibali wasn’t at his peak this year, but nobody could cover his attack.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Interesting decision.

I think a later start also makes it harder to be great in Sanremo.

Thing is, San Remo is more about staying in the right place and following the right wheels at the right times than about necessarily being in tippy-toppy shape. Sagan’s been the strongest rider in the race at MSR on at least 2 occasions, and finished 2nd both times. Nibali wasn’t at his peak this year, but nobody could cover his attack.

True, although while Nibali didn't prepare to peak this year, he had an insane form on the day.

In Sanremo I think you really need the goods as an agressor. Sagan usually isn't quite fast enough to be the fastest left after the Poggio.

This year was the worst though, wasting energy and his lead out on a half assed chase.

 

[Gigs_98]

Sagan's top end sprint gets underrated at times. The last guys who won the race in bunch sprints were Demare, Degenkolb and Kristoff. If Sagan is in top shape and doesn't waste energy (as he usually does in MSR) I would pick Sagan over all of these guys in a bunch sprint. The problem is that Sagan is usually right at the front of the peloton when it goes over the Poggio which means he feels the responsibility to lead the chase while the guys who barley hang on don't even think about spending the little energy they have left on chasing attackers.

About Liege, just like it was the case when the AGR route was changed two years ago I think people will predict the exact opposite of what will actually happen if it is announced that the LBL finale gets easier. I think Sagan maybe could have won the race on the old route Gerrans style, but if the climbs come further away from the finish you will suddenly see the climbers actually battling each other on the climbs instead of only waiting for the last little bit of ascending road and I simply don't think Sagan can go head to head with guys like Alaphilippe on climbs like La Redoute if they are actually raced properly.

 

[Koronin]

Sagan's top end sprint gets underrated at times. The last guys who won the race in bunch sprints were Demare, Degenkolb and Kristoff. If Sagan is in top shape and doesn't waste energy (as he usually does in MSR) I would pick Sagan over all of these guys in a bunch sprint. The problem is that Sagan is usually right at the front of the peloton when it goes over the Poggio which means he feels the responsibility to lead the chase while the guys who barley hang on don't even think about spending the little energy they have left on chasing attackers.

About Liege, just like it was the case when the AGR route was changed two years ago I think people will predict the exact opposite of what will actually happen if it is announced that the LBL finale gets easier. I think Sagan maybe could have won the race on the old route Gerrans style, but if the climbs come further away from the finish you will suddenly see the climbers actually battling each other on the climbs instead of only waiting for the last little bit of ascending road and I simply don't think Sagan can go head to head with guys like Alaphilippe on climbs like La Redoute if they are actually raced properly.

Sagan can't climb with the better climbers. Even Alaphilippe can't climb with the real climbers as was proven at the Worlds this year when Bardet, Woods and Valverde dropped him. If they do race those climbs as they could race them Sagan won't be there and it's likely Alaphilippe will struggle. On the other hand, it would/could be good for a rider like Bardet or Pinot.

 

[Red Rick]

Sagan's top end sprint gets underrated at times. The last guys who won the race in bunch sprints were Demare, Degenkolb and Kristoff. If Sagan is in top shape and doesn't waste energy (as he usually does in MSR) I would pick Sagan over all of these guys in a bunch sprint. The problem is that Sagan is usually right at the front of the peloton when it goes over the Poggio which means he feels the responsibility to lead the chase while the guys who barley hang on don't even think about spending the little energy they have left on chasing attackers.

About Liege, just like it was the case when the AGR route was changed two years ago I think people will predict the exact opposite of what will actually happen if it is announced that the LBL finale gets easier. I think Sagan maybe could have won the race on the old route Gerrans style, but if the climbs come further away from the finish you will suddenly see the climbers actually battling each other on the climbs instead of only waiting for the last little bit of ascending road and I simply don't think Sagan can go head to head with guys like Alaphilippe on climbs like La Redoute if they are actually raced properly.

There's like 15km between La Redoute and RaF.

I think Liege has this weird thing where climbs are too long to go full gas all the time and thus create action while being too few and too short to negate the amount of flat inbetween and make sure a race from the penultimate climb is selective enough.

The section before La Redoute is very easy, the very hard section with La Femme Libert is too far away and thus softpedalled.

 

[Blanco]

Sagan's top end sprint gets underrated at times. The last guys who won the race in bunch sprints were Demare, Degenkolb and Kristoff. If Sagan is in top shape and doesn't waste energy (as he usually does in MSR) I would pick Sagan over all of these guys in a bunch sprint. The problem is that Sagan is usually right at the front of the peloton when it goes over the Poggio which means he feels the responsibility to lead the chase while the guys who barley hang on don't even think about spending the little energy they have left on chasing attackers.

About Liege, just like it was the case when the AGR route was changed two years ago I think people will predict the exact opposite of what will actually happen if it is announced that the LBL finale gets easier. I think Sagan maybe could have won the race on the old route Gerrans style, but if the climbs come further away from the finish you will suddenly see the climbers actually battling each other on the climbs instead of only waiting for the last little bit of ascending road and I simply don't think Sagan can go head to head with guys like Alaphilippe on climbs like La Redoute if they are actually raced properly.

Sagan can't climb with the better climbers. Even Alaphilippe can't climb with the real climbers as was proven at the Worlds this year when Bardet, Woods and Valverde dropped him. If they do race those climbs as they could race them Sagan won't be there and it's likely Alaphilippe will struggle. On the other hand, it would/could be good for a rider like Bardet or Pinot.

Alaphilippe is very well suited to the climbs of LBL, I doubt he will struggle there. Liege is not a race for the climbers, at least not for the ones who doesn't have a punch. It's for the puncheurs who can climb really well, or for the punchier climbers. Worlds was another story, the amount of climbing was too much for the guys like Alaphilippe, and that last wall is definitely for the climbers only.

 

[WheelofGear]

Main problem for Alaphilippe is if the race turn into an endurance race.

I'm not sure he is the strongest if they decide to open the race like the in cobbled classics. He rely on his punch. There is a different between uphill sprinting and a long effort on steep hills.

I'd go for a strong climber like Bardet then. Just look at him in Strade Bianche.

It will also favor Wellens, Nibali, Benoot, Moscon. It becomes another race.

 

[Koronin]

Sagan's top end sprint gets underrated at times. The last guys who won the race in bunch sprints were Demare, Degenkolb and Kristoff. If Sagan is in top shape and doesn't waste energy (as he usually does in MSR) I would pick Sagan over all of these guys in a bunch sprint. The problem is that Sagan is usually right at the front of the peloton when it goes over the Poggio which means he feels the responsibility to lead the chase while the guys who barley hang on don't even think about spending the little energy they have left on chasing attackers.

About Liege, just like it was the case when the AGR route was changed two years ago I think people will predict the exact opposite of what will actually happen if it is announced that the LBL finale gets easier. I think Sagan maybe could have won the race on the old route Gerrans style, but if the climbs come further away from the finish you will suddenly see the climbers actually battling each other on the climbs instead of only waiting for the last little bit of ascending road and I simply don't think Sagan can go head to head with guys like Alaphilippe on climbs like La Redoute if they are actually raced properly.

Sagan can't climb with the better climbers. Even Alaphilippe can't climb with the real climbers as was proven at the Worlds this year when Bardet, Woods and Valverde dropped him. If they do race those climbs as they could race them Sagan won't be there and it's likely Alaphilippe will struggle. On the other hand, it would/could be good for a rider like Bardet or Pinot.

Alaphilippe is very well suited to the climbs of LBL, I doubt he will struggle there. Liege is not a race for the climbers, at least not for the ones who doesn't have a punch. It's for the puncheurs who can climb really well, or for the punchier climbers. Worlds was another story, the amount of climbing was too much for the guys like Alaphilippe, and that last wall is definitely for the climbers only.

I would agree about the last climb of the Worlds if it wasn't that Valverde is a puncheur and not a true climber. If LBL is raced hard as it is likely to be raced harder with the new finish it very well may hurt Alaphilippe due to the endurance that doesn't seem to be his strong-suite. Sagan has the endurance but doesn't have the climbing abilities.

 

[Blanco]

Sagan's top end sprint gets underrated at times. The last guys who won the race in bunch sprints were Demare, Degenkolb and Kristoff. If Sagan is in top shape and doesn't waste energy (as he usually does in MSR) I would pick Sagan over all of these guys in a bunch sprint. The problem is that Sagan is usually right at the front of the peloton when it goes over the Poggio which means he feels the responsibility to lead the chase while the guys who barley hang on don't even think about spending the little energy they have left on chasing attackers.

About Liege, just like it was the case when the AGR route was changed two years ago I think people will predict the exact opposite of what will actually happen if it is announced that the LBL finale gets easier. I think Sagan maybe could have won the race on the old route Gerrans style, but if the climbs come further away from the finish you will suddenly see the climbers actually battling each other on the climbs instead of only waiting for the last little bit of ascending road and I simply don't think Sagan can go head to head with guys like Alaphilippe on climbs like La Redoute if they are actually raced properly.

Sagan can't climb with the better climbers. Even Alaphilippe can't climb with the real climbers as was proven at the Worlds this year when Bardet, Woods and Valverde dropped him. If they do race those climbs as they could race them Sagan won't be there and it's likely Alaphilippe will struggle. On the other hand, it would/could be good for a rider like Bardet or Pinot.

Alaphilippe is very well suited to the climbs of LBL, I doubt he will struggle there. Liege is not a race for the climbers, at least not for the ones who doesn't have a punch. It's for the puncheurs who can climb really well, or for the punchier climbers. Worlds was another story, the amount of climbing was too much for the guys like Alaphilippe, and that last wall is definitely for the climbers only.

I would agree about the last climb of the Worlds if it wasn't that Valverde is a puncheur and not a true climber. If LBL is raced hard as it is likely to be raced harder with the new finish it very well may hurt Alaphilippe due to the endurance that doesn't seem to be his strong-suite. Sagan has the endurance but doesn't have the climbing abilities.

Valverde is a puncheur, but he's also a true climber. You don't end up on eight Grand Tour podiums if you're not a climber de luxe.

 

[tobydawq]

In the Cyclingnews interview he says that he once jumped over a dog which ran out in front of him on the Poggio descent but damaged his wheel, so they caught the brakes in the sprint. Has anybody heard that story before and does anyone know which year it was? Maybe 2014, where he only sprinted to 10th?