Post-ITT Gaps Anyone?

[Psalmon]

Here's the Stage one gaps over 15.5 km:

Contador.............0:00
Wiggens..............0:01
Kloden................0:04
Armstrong............0:22
Andy Schleck........0:42
Frank Schleck.......1:18

After today:
1 Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Astana 72:27:09
2 Andy Schleck (Lux) Team Saxo Bank 0:02:26
3 Fränk Schleck (Lux) Team Saxo Bank 0:03:25
4 Lance Armstrong (USA) Astana 0:03:55
5 Andreas Klöden (Ger) Astana 0:04:44
6 Bradley Wiggins (GBr) Garmin - Slipstream 0:04:53

After Tomorrow?

Seems both Lance and Andreas can catch Frank, but not Andy. Kloden looked totally bonked coming into LGB. Lance looked pretty fresh coming down the mountain. The Schlecks looked worked. Alberto had it relatively easy coming home.

Do Lance and/or Kloden take it easy and save the tank for Ventoux? Does one or the other go out and try to set marks for Alberto? Does Frank coast it to save his tank for Andy on the Ventoux? Do the Astana top echelon go for it while Popo, Zubeldia, et. Al ease thru? How important is the podium sweep for Johan? Will Bradley Winit or Wiggout?

Here's mine (to the nearest :15):

Contador 0
Andy +3:30
Armstrong +3:45
Wiggins +4:45
Kloden +5:15
Frank +5:45

I guess that would have Armstrong fighting for the ITT win (proven experience in late , relatively flat ITTs), but I don't discount Alberto for that (will be big time motivated, much improved since 2007).

Andy may lose more, but I think will just hold on to 2nd (only 40 km)

Wiggins is the "specialist" but nobody has seen what he can do at this weight, 17 stages in. It'll be a tough haul for him to catch Lance. Couldn't keep up today.

Kloden is proven in late ITTs, but looked soooo blown coming in.

I think Frank sacrifices position for fresh legs (thanks for the Stage win bro!).

What d'yall think? After yesterday and today it's going to be cool to see how everybody recovers.

 

[scribe]

Couple of meandering thoughts...

These courses for the TTs are different from one another. so I'd look for a bit more of a gap draw from LA and possibly Kloden, depending how he recovers from dragging his *** over the mountain.

It would be a bad idea for Kloden and Armstrong to not drop the hammer tomorrow. They will not make up any time on the Shreks on Ventoux.

 

[Mambo95]

Don't forget Nibali. He was 9th in the Prologue. Just 19 secs down on Contador.

 

[Futuroscope]

frank will loose some serious time..even if he goes all out.

armstrong, klöden, wiggins and nibali will all pass him in the GC standings.

 

[LinkAge]

last year's tour.

first ITT ( 29.5 km ) andy lost : 01' 29

second ITT ( 53 km ) andy lost : 04' 02

Frank gonna lose a lot of time I would imagine.
Andy did _a lot _ of work today!
I think after today he's gonna be 30/20 seconds down on armstrong.

I see the gc something like that:
Contador 0
Armstrong 04:10
Andy 04:30
Bradley Wiggins 04:30
Andreas Klöden 05:00
Frank 06:00

*I can see LA giving it everything in order to get the stage win, but I think
AC or spartacus gonna win it.

*if I look post ITT, andy/armstrong gonna battle for 2nd on Ventoux, can't see LA doing anything but losing 1:30 + to andy on that day.

 

[DenisMenchov]

Wiggo all te way, 1 minute on Contadope, 2 minutes on Schlecket and 45 sec on Pharmstrong

 

[Futuroscope]

last year's tour.

first ITT ( 29.5 km ) andy lost : 01' 29

second ITT ( 53 km ) andy lost : 04' 02

Frank gonna lose a lot of time I would imagine.
Andy did _a lot _ of work today!
I think after today he's gonna be 30/20 seconds down on armstrong.

I see the gc something like that:
Contador 0
Armstrong 04:10
Andy 04:30
Bradley Wiggins 04:30
Andreas Klöden 05:00
Frank 06:00

*I can see LA giving it everything in order to get the stage win, but I think
AC or spartacus gonna win it.

*if I look post ITT, andy/armstrong gonna battle for 2nd on Ventoux, can't see LA doing anything but losing 1:30 + to andy on that day.

don't forget nibali.

and i dont think its gonna be a battle for second place between andy and armstrong. as lance wont be able to hang with andy on mount ventoux. mount ventoux is a battle between andy and contador.

 

[Psalmon]

*I can see LA giving it everything in order to get the stage win, but I think
AC or spartacus gonna win it.

Good point, I just checked and Fabian finished :21 down to a doped Schumacher in 53km last year at the end. Maybe he storms to it in only 40 km.

 

[LinkAge]

Futuroscope:

don't forget nibali.

and i dont think its gonna be a battle for second place between andy and armstrong. as lance wont be able to hang with andy on mount ventoux. mount ventoux is a battle between andy and contador.

I don't think AC will care much about andy, he's gonna win the stage with ease if he wants!
he might help his teammates ( after today ) in order to show everybody he's a good teammate.

we might see AC dragging Kloden's and LA's asses up ventoux, won't that be something

 

[frizzlefry]

Gonna be interesting to see what Contador does on Ventoux. He will have plenty of time on all GC contenders. Does he stay back and help LA and AK with the Schleck brothers, or does he attack for the stage win and let LA, AK battle the Schlecks by themselves. My guess is he will be told to sit on by JB.

 

[scribe]

An attack by AC while up 4 minutes on everyone would be dangerous and downright stupid.

He will probably do it.

 

[frizzlefry]

An attack by AC while up 4 minutes on everyone would be dangerous and downright stupid.

He will probably do it.

Yea its funny listening to Bob Roll and Craig Hummer post stage. They both just commented how AC had AK with him and Schlecks and that he should just ride defensively.

 

[Futuroscope]

Futuroscope:


I don't think AC will care much about andy, he's gonna win the stage with ease if he wants!
he might help his teammates ( after today ) in order to show everybody he's a good teammate.

we might see AC dragging Kloden's and LA's asses up ventoux, won't that be something

you meen andy will win the stage with ease? na i dont think contador will let him go...i think its gonna be andy vs contador and contador will beat him by launching a late attack.

AC is the captain and he should focus on andy (the second best climber in this years tour)...lance and klöden will have to fight on their own, in the group behind andy and contador.

 

[Futuroscope]

Gonna be interesting to see what Contador does on Ventoux. He will have plenty of time on all GC contenders. Does he stay back and help LA and AK with the Schleck brothers, or does he attack for the stage win and let LA, AK battle the Schlecks by themselves. My guess is he will be told to sit on by JB.

no way ...

contador will ride for the win on that stage, as he should. why should he help lance and klöden?

the only thing JB should be worried about is having klöden and armstrong helping contador early on the final climb. klöden and armstrong should be used to neutralize frank schlecks attacks, and contador will be focused on andy. so when andy goes..contador follows.

at the end it will be andy vs contador..and contador will come out on top by attacking away from andy.

 

[benpounder]

1 Fabian is going to win - he's a god at this.

2 Wiggins will be second but fairly close - he is pissed off.

3 Contador will be even closer to Wiggins.

4-5 Kloden or Armstrong, Armstrong or Kloden - they are pissed at Contador.

6 Nibali will ride smart putting time into the Mallot Blanc.

7 Vande Velde.

8 Kreuzinger.

9 Andy will look good on the climb but will lose time on the flats.

10, 11 Casar, and Van Den Broek

12 Frank has rarely ridden a good ITT.

13-14 Karpets or Nocentini, Nocentini or Karpets

#15 Astarloza will finish within the top 25 rounding out the finishings of the top 15 GC contenders - there will be others in there as well - Gerdemann, Evans, Menchov and other likely suspects. (Le Mevel will be outside the top 25)

Both Kloden and Armstrong will make enough time lost today to Schlecks to make Ventoux really interesting. Nibali's time make-ups will be as interesting. Frank will be riding for a top 5.

 

[jaylew]

An attack by AC while up 4 minutes on everyone would be dangerous and downright stupid.

He will probably do it.

It wouldn't be stupid at all unless he did it early in the climb. If he and the Schleck bros are up the road on Ventoux I fully expect him to try to win the stage. That's what you're supposed to do.

 

[richwagmn]

It wouldn't be stupid at all unless he did it early in the climb. If he and the Schleck bros are up the road on Ventoux I fully expect him to try to win the stage. That's what you're supposed to do.

No, you're supposed to wait for LA to make sure he gets a podium spot. ;-)

 

[he_man]

LA will pass Andy on the GC 2morrow only to get eaten up Vontoux

but wont it be interesting if andy cracks and frank too far back.

so Hog lets AC vs LA battle on top for a 2010 preview??

 

[auscyclefan94]

Wiggo all te way, 1 minute on Contadope, 2 minutes on Schlecket and 45 sec on Pharmstrong

What about Andreas Dopen?

 

[auscyclefan94]

1 Fabian is going to win - he's a god at this.

2 Wiggins will be second but fairly close - he is pissed off.

3 Contador will be even closer to Wiggins.

4-5 Kloden or Armstrong, Armstrong or Kloden - they are pissed at Contador.

6 Nibali will ride smart putting time into the Mallot Blanc.

7 Vande Velde.

8 Kreuzinger.

9 Andy will look good on the climb but will lose time on the flats.

10, 11 Casar, and Van Den Broek

12 Frank has rarely ridden a good ITT.

13-14 Karpets or Nocentini, Nocentini or Karpets

#15 Astarloza will finish within the top 25 rounding out the finishings of the top 15 GC contenders - there will be others in there as well - Gerdemann, Evans, Menchov and other likely suspects. (Le Mevel will be outside the top 25)

Both Kloden and Armstrong will make enough time lost today to Schlecks to make Ventoux really interesting. Nibali's time make-ups will be as interesting. Frank will be riding for a top 5.

Fabian will win by 2 minutes on this course though being an early starter will be his only disadvantage. I don't think that Casar, Van den Broek, F Schleck, Nocentini or Karpets will feature in the top 15. Bert Grabsch could cause a possible surprise as it is a flat course with a bump near the end of the course.

I make this a promise. If Fabian Cancellara doesn't win tonight i will bear my bum in Bourke Street. HAHAHAHAHAH. Look to see me in the news...

 

[Pezrider]

Fabian will win by 2 minutes on this course though being an early starter will be his only disadvantage. I don't think that Casar, Van den Broek, F Schleck, Nocentini or Karpets will feature in the top 15. Bert Grabsch could cause a possible surprise as it is a flat course with a bump near the end of the course.

I make this a promise. If Fabian Cancellara doesn't win tonight i will bear my bum in Bourke Street. HAHAHAHAHAH. Look to see me in the news...

HAHA
Lets hope Fabian wins i'm sure we can do without seeing that!!

Does everyone really think Evans will be out of the top 15??
I think afer Stage 16 he may have tanked 17 to have a crack at the ITT do gain some respectability back. Surely he is not struggling that badly to lose that much time or has he just given up? At $34 or so with most bookies seems reasonable value - Thoughts????

 

[LinkAge]

Well bad weather at Annecy, so I guess we have to ask ourself,
when mancov gonna hit the deck? I don't think he'll leave it to the last km like in the giro , he gonna suprize us

I guess in the rain andy/frank gonna lose more time, bike handling.

if LA is on the poduim team orders will be not to attack, but with AC who knows

 

[auscyclefan94]

HAHA
Lets hope Fabian wins i'm sure we can do without seeing that!!

Does everyone really think Evans will be out of the top 15??
I think afer Stage 16 he may have tanked 17 to have a crack at the ITT do gain some respectability back. Surely he is not struggling that badly to lose that much time or has he just given up? At $34 or so with most bookies seems reasonable value - Thoughts????

I agree. he wasn't struggling on the Roseland. Even a guy like him on a bad day wouldn't get dropped on a climb 20km into the stage.

 

[Anonymous]

TT
cancellara
contador
Wiggins
Kloden
Lance
Millar


GC
Contador
Andy +4.30 (+2min)
Brad +4.54 (+1 sec)
Lance +4.55 (+1m)
Kloden +4.55 (+10secs)
Frank +6.30 (+3min)

And the astana v brad show on ventoux, brad to hold onto 3rd..

(oh and i think menchov will have a a rasmusson)

Biased, optimistic, and off to paris in 2 hours..

 

[runninboy]

Well bad weather at Annecy, so I guess we have to ask ourself,
when mancov gonna hit the deck? I don't think he'll leave it to the last km like in the giro , he gonna suprize us

I guess in the rain andy/frank gonna lose more time, bike handling.

if LA is on the poduim team orders will be not to attack, but with AC who knows

I think Menchov hits the deck on the starting ramp

Fabian is gonna fly but i bet the Astana plan is for AC to make a big effort to gain as much time as possible in the tt and then help Kloden & LA on ventoux. I would not be surprised to see Kloden & LA move past both shreks in the tt. Remember all those flats andy was having earlier? If it is a rainy tt i bet he gets another flat,

Wiggins i am rooting for but i think the climbing this week will have take some of the snap out of his tt legs. If he is not top 3 after Ventoux i bet Garmin sends him & miller to try & steal the win in paris