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Power Data Estimates for the climbing stages

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Fearless Greg Lemond

Fearless Greg Lemond

Apr 20, 2012
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pmcg76 said:
At the end of the day, I just presented data and facts. People can make what they want from it.
Click to expand...
Data is always good, statistics too. The interpretation of those two is pretty subjective.

One can say 'hey, he is equialling a climbing time of a former doper so he must be doping too', or 'hey, he is equialling a climbing time of a former doper, that's suspicious, how did he do that? does he have results in his past that could explain this?'.

Etc. etc.

I find this one very interesting:
Alex Zülle 5.91w/k 40.01 Alp dHuez Bourg dOison 1119 13.8 1850 Tour de France 1994

Alex Zülle 6.23w/k 38 14 Alp dHuez Bourg dOison 1119 13.8 1850 Tour de France 1995

Alex Zülle 5.66w/k 41 35 Alp dHuez Bourg dOison 1119 13.8 1850 Tour de France 1999

Interesting data, three different years, multiple explanations possible. And that from the guy who was outclimbing Pantani a year before.
 
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pmcg76

Mar 6, 2009
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Fearless Greg Lemond said:
Data is always good, statistics too. The interpretation of those two is pretty subjective.

One can say 'hey, he is equialling a climbing time of a former doper so he must be doping too', or 'hey, he is equialling a climbing time of a former doper, that's suspicious, how did he do that? does he have results in his past that could explain this?'.

Etc. etc.

I find this one very interesting:
Alex Zülle 5.91w/k 40.01 Alp dHuez Bourg dOison 1119 13.8 1850 Tour de France 1994

Alex Zülle 6.23w/k 38 14 Alp dHuez Bourg dOison 1119 13.8 1850 Tour de France 1995

Alex Zülle 5.66w/k 41 35 Alp dHuez Bourg dOison 1119 13.8 1850 Tour de France 1999

Interesting data, three different years, multiple explanations possible. And that from the guy who was outclimbing Pantani a year before.
Click to expand...

Yes, but that is comparing one rider year to year. I am taking an average time over a 3 year period. That is less susceptible to the things you are talking about than taking one rider year to year. Averages tend to smooth over the outliers a little.

It is possible to say well in 2001, they had a tailwind but in 2009 they had a headwind. That is very possible and shows why comparing year to year is flawed.

If you take a 3 year period, how likely is it that they had a tailwind for one 3 year period but a headwind for another 3 year period. Of course there are other factors but how likely would it be for those factors all to align in the same 3 year period?
 
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RownhamHill

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Fearless Greg Lemond said:
Data is always good, statistics too. The interpretation of those two is pretty subjective.

One can say 'hey, he is equialling a climbing time of a former doper so he must be doping too', or 'hey, he is equialling a climbing time of a former doper, that's suspicious, how did he do that? does he have results in his past that could explain this?'.

Etc. etc.

I find this one very interesting:
Alex Zülle 5.91w/k 40.01 Alp dHuez Bourg dOison 1119 13.8 1850 Tour de France 1994

Alex Zülle 6.23w/k 38 14 Alp dHuez Bourg dOison 1119 13.8 1850 Tour de France 1995

Alex Zülle 5.66w/k 41 35 Alp dHuez Bourg dOison 1119 13.8 1850 Tour de France 1999

Interesting data, three different years, multiple explanations possible. And that from the guy who was outclimbing Pantani a year before.
Click to expand...

That is interesting data. Do you know how the race situation compared between those years - was he going flat out (or near so) on all of those occasions, or were the circumstances different? Sorry, just don't know the details of the nineties racing.
 
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Dr. Juice

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pmcg76 said:
Yes, but that is comparing one rider year to year. I am taking an average time over a 3 year period. That is less susceptible to the things you are talking about than taking one rider year to year. Averages tend to smooth over the outliers a little.

It is possible to say well in 2001, they had a tailwind but in 2009 they had a headwind. That is very possible and shows why comparing year to year is flawed.

If you take a 3 year period, how likely is it that they had a tailwind for one 3 year period but a headwind for another 3 year period. Of course there are other factors but how likely would it be for those factors all to align in the same 3 year period?
Click to expand...

Alpe d'Huez is full of 180° turns. Headwind means tailwind after the next corner and vice versa. That's why the wind has less influence on this climb ( still has, but to a lesser extent).

Who said Zülle was outclimbing Pantani in 1998? 1 day on Lago Laceno when Il Pirata was probably having a bad day. Zülle did good performances on EPO, but nothing extraterrestrial (in line with other dopers). He always suffered on the long and steep mountains.
And his 1999 TdF performance was worse than previous performances ( everyone climbed slower in 1999 than all the years before and after, who knows why? ) but he was still competitive against all dopers.
I think the top guys still used EPO but were a little bit more cautious that year. Only before the key stages.
 
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pmcg76

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Dr. Juice said:
Alpe d'Huez is full of 180° turns. Headwind means tailwind after the next corner and vice versa. That's why the wind has less influence on this climb ( still has, but to a lesser extent).

Who said Zülle was outclimbing Pantani in 1998? 1 day on Lago Laceno when Il Pirata was probably having a bad day. Zülle did good performances on EPO, but nothing extraterrestrial (in line with other dopers). He always suffered on the long and steep mountains.
And his 1999 TdF performance was worse than previous performances ( everyone climbed slower in 1999 than all the years before and after, who knows why? ) but he was still competitive against all dopers.
I think the top guys still used EPO but were a little bit more cautious that year. Only before the key stages.
Click to expand...

That is why I said Alpe d'Huez is a better example than Mont Ventoux, less influence from wind. My comment about wind and tactics was more in a general sense that related purely to Alpe d'Huez. It is FGL who is putting forward the idea of differing factors having an impact.

Also it was FGL who said Zulle was outclimbing Pantani, not me. There is a belief out there that in 1999, a lot of guys came to the Tour fully loaded but very few topped up along the way unlike Armstrong with Motoman. Even on Postal, only a handful of guys were getting topped up during the race so that is one possible reason for the slower times. The race was also effectively over by Alpe d'Huez such was Armstong's lead. It came the day after Sertriere did it not.
 
Catwhoorg

Catwhoorg

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Ian Boswells power files from California

http://www.teamsky.com/teamsky/features/article/53005#rfKfbsFjAfa5bSLW.97

Not surprisingly, most of Boswell's peak power values are during the climb up Glendora Ridge Road to the top of Mt. Baldy. That section comprised his Peak 90 minute power value of 339 Average watts (4.92 W/kg). At the start of the final ascent up Mt. Baldy, Ian put out his Peak 20 minute power of 394 Average watts (5.72 W/kg). In the final hour, Boswell climbed just over 4,000 ft. at only 15 mph. while pushing 363 Normalized watts.

Boswell was 3rd on that Stage, same time as Henao in 2nd.
 
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rm7

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Re:

Red Rick said:
Sticky this plz.

Any numbers from the Giro so far?
Click to expand...

Tbh no one have been climbing that fast on the 2 MTF. Let's see in the 3rd week, i'm sure Contador, Porte, Zakarin from a break, and maybe Aru will put up some +6 kg/w numbers.
 
SeriousSam

SeriousSam

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Surprisingly slow, but then there is quite a lot of variation in climbing times (and hence in w/kg estimated using climbing times, length and avg gradient)
 
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