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Power Data Estimates for the climbing stages

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Not sure how you can possibly compare a sub 3 minute climb with a 40 minute climb?? :confused_old: Mur de Huy requires different energy system - it is hugely anaerobic. The Alpe is purely aerobic. As far as I can research, nobody has ridden sub 40 minutes on the Alpe for years now. In 2018 Thomas was untouchable by any rival climbers after being towed from the bottom by the might of the Sky train in full flight and still only did something like 41 minutes.
Quintana 39:22 in 2015 (and 39:48 in 2013).

 
Quintana 39:22 in 2015 (and 39:48 in 2013).

Well 2015 is years ago ;). Strange that list does not have Quintana's 2015 Alpe ascent in the top 100. Anyhow my point remains whatever they are on today (and faster bikes), they are still much slower than yesteryear when there was less restricted doping and the heights of the EPO era. Can you imagine if Pantani was riding the latest tech? Sub 36"? The mind boggles. No way Pogi and Roglic will ever get close to that.
 
We don't know yet (about how bad this era is). That is the point everyone is trying to make. Unless they do a Alpe D'Huez or another legendary climb we will never know. Even then people will try to make a point of fast bikes, tail wind, trains, etc. If records are being broken in almost every race you know you can't make excuses for all of them. That is like trying to cover the sun with your hands.
 
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We don't know yet (about how bad this era is). That is the point everyone is trying to make. Unless they do a Alpe D'Huez or another legendary climb we will never know. Even then people will try to make a point of fast bikes, tail wind, trains, etc. If records are being broken in almost every race you know you can't make excuses for all of them. That is like trying to cover the sun with your hands.
People will believe in a perennial, omnipresent tailwind if it fits their paradigm.
 
We don't know yet (about how bad this era is). That is the point everyone is trying to make. Unless they do a Alpe D'Huez or another legendary climb we will never know. Even then people will try to make a point of fast bikes, tail wind, trains, etc. If records are being broken in almost every race you know you can't make excuses for all of them. That is like trying to cover the sun with your hands.
Its only a matter of time before they do the Alpe so we can all stop guessing. But my gut feel based upon what I know about blood doping and the example of 2018 Thomas / Sky is the UCI passport, whilst certainly not stopping doping is doing its job to put the brakes on so those times are no longer physically possible.
 
I think that Pogi can go as fast as Lance there.

It's possible. In another thread I did estimations based on his Peyresourde performance (VAM of 1840 m/h on similarly steep climb) and concluded that his Alpe time could be in 37.5-38.5 minutes range (corresponding to 2-5% drop of performance: Alpe is longer than Peyresourde). Pantani's time looks impossible to beat though - at his peak the guy could sustain about 7 w/kg.
 
I would assume that as time goes on, the new doping method would get refined and performances would improve without more new stuff. Seeing guys like Adam Yates put 2 minutes into 2013 Quintana on a sub 35 minute climb is gigantic.

It's very hard for me to see say Pogacar not putting at least 1'30 into Quitnana's best AdH time, so I'd 100% expect sub 38 minutes.

Ventoux is harder to guess for me cause the record is from 2004 I think, which is really weird to me. Was that a strong tailwind?
 
It was a MTT (with new asphalt and favourable wind too, iirc). The only time they did it in the Tour in the '90s, it was as a pass with the finish in Carpentras.

ui4l4lO.png


Yet Pantani was only 13'' slower than Mayo (in the last 15.65 km):

View: https://twitter.com/ammattipyoraily/status/1140221714355425280
 
Nobody is touching that time of Mayo. Especially this stage that finishes on a descent. That Pantani's time is something. I assume back in those days they didn't keep as close check on the times. When someone decided to check them it was when they realized that something really, really bad was going on. The funny thing is that they would compare times from the 80's to the 90's. At least now we are right in the middle. But imagine Pantani putting 5 minutes on the times of Herrera, Delgado and Company. Come on. UCI played completely dead.
 
I remember watching that Ventoux MTT in '04 thinking we were finally going to see Lance get beaten in July, they were completely caught out by how quick Mayo and Phonak were going.

ventoux2004.jpg


Could this perennial tailwind we've seen in 2021 see someone get close to Mayo's time? I'm not ruling it out.
 
It was a MTT (with new asphalt and favourable wind too, iirc). The only time they did it in the Tour in the '90s, it was as a pass with the finish in Carpentras.

ui4l4lO.png


Yet Pantani was only 13'' slower than Mayo (in the last 15.65 km):

View: https://twitter.com/ammattipyoraily/status/1140221714355425280
Okay that's good to know. I hadn't realised Ventoux has been so rare in the Tour, so this makes a lot of sense that Pantani would likely have beaten that time if it had beena MTF, but not by super much, I don't really subscribe to the notion that final climbs on descent finishes are much slower. I think they can actually be more aggressive. Wind and very low sample size is the big issue with the Ventoux.

It's crazy to think that in 2009 they did the same time as in 2013 but when you look at the footage they are reporting gigantic headwinds at that point.

I think in the Tour thebest benchmark will be Hautacam.
 
Why Hautacam? Ventoux will be very telling as well. If they come close to Pantani's time that is very fast. That is more than 2 minutes taken from the the Froome's time.
I didn't say Ventoux wasn't a benchmark, but it's pretty rare. Also hour long climbs can be very inconsistent with climbing times cause they rarely drill it from the bottom, and Ventoux is famously windy.

Hautacam simply has been a pretty regular MTF and the last time they went there Nibali went absolutely ballistic.
 
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