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Power Data Estimates for the climbing stages

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Rollthedice

Rollthedice

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Cookster15 said:
Yes we haven't seen PdBF level yet but its only stage 9. Yes, Ventoux will be interesting but I am tipping Pogi to be restrained. He can sit on his lead then demolish everyone in the 2nd TT.
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There is nothing more to demolish. Apart from Breakaway Ben, the others are at over 5 (FIVE) minutes down at the first rest day. He can do whatever he wants until Paris, take a nap during the Ventoux stage, go loco in the Pyrenees, take it easy in the ITT. If he's smart he'll tone it down, maybe even fake a slightly worse day. At this point in cycling and in the race Pogacar is God.

Only way to stop him is to test positive. For Covid.
 
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Savant12

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Rollthedice said:
There is nothing more to demolish. Apart from Breakaway Ben, the others are at over 5 (FIVE) minutes down at the first rest day. He can do whatever he wants until Paris, take a nap during the Ventoux stage, go loco in the Pyrenees, take it easy in the ITT. If he's smart he'll tone it down, maybe even fake a slightly worse day. At this point in cycling and in the race Pogacar is God.

Only way to stop him is to test positive. For Covid.
Click to expand...

He's had his vaccine but maybe it's mutated in his body to give him superpowers. Or he got a little something else mixed in to mask the signature.
 
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Nick2413

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Cookster15 said:
Yes we haven't seen PdBF level yet but its only stage 9. Yes, Ventoux will be interesting but I am tipping Pogi to be restrained. He can sit on his lead then demolish everyone in the 2nd TT.
Click to expand...
I suspect he may want the stage win as a souvenir given the history of the climb but he’s probably on a leash to not set any major records for the rest of the race. I’d also expect a more human TT.
 
Ripper

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Nick2413 said:
I suspect he may want the stage win as a souvenir given the history of the climb but he’s probably on a leash to not set any major records for the rest of the race. I’d also expect a more human TT.
Click to expand...
We are talking some ego here, a fair bit of hubris. I suspect you are right with a stage win, it just depends on how close it is. If there is a break that is not worth catching, he can play it easier. Where it gets interesting is if the climb truly is everyone hotting it up, but he could still make a 30+ second acceleration to win it, he might just do it to get the win and flip the bird to everyone. It won't seem quite as radioactive, but there's no real need.

He will fail the doping IQ test if he needlessly pummels a climb like this and sets some sort of stupid time. It's possible but unlikely.

As for the TT, it is harder to extrapolate the exact watts. Which means he does have that in the back pocket if he needs a bit more buffer. Gianetti and company want to win the whole shebang, so no point in being completely stupid.
 
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Cookster15

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Ripper said:
We are talking some ego here, a fair bit of hubris. I suspect you are right with a stage win, it just depends on how close it is. If there is a break that is not worth catching, he can play it easier. Where it gets interesting is if the climb truly is everyone hotting it up, but he could still make a 30+ second acceleration to win it, he might just do it to get the win and flip the bird to everyone. It won't seem quite as radioactive, but there's no real need.

He will fail the doping IQ test if he needlessly pummels a climb like this and sets some sort of stupid time. It's possible but unlikely.

As for the TT, it is harder to extrapolate the exact watts. Which means he does have that in the back pocket if he needs a bit more buffer. Gianetti and company want to win the whole shebang, so no point in being completely stupid.
Click to expand...

Pogi has a big ego? First I've read that, he is certainly no Lance "no gifts" Armstrong. Since he already knows he easily has the measure of everyone, his best approach would be to mark riders like Carapaz and Uran then hit the afterburners late on MTFs rather than dance away at the bottom of HC climbs making everyone look silly e.g. Pantani 1998 Les deux Alpes. Taking 30 seconds at the top of MTFs won't fail any doping IQ tests IMO.
 
Ripper

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Cookster15 said:
Pogi has a big ego? First I've read that, he is certainly no Lance "no gifts" Armstrong. Since he already knows he easily has the measure of everyone, his best approach would be to mark riders like Carapaz and Uran then hit the afterburners late on MTFs rather than dance away at the bottom of HC climbs making everyone look silly e.g. Pantani 1998 Les deux Alpes. Taking 30 seconds at the top of MTFs won't fail any doping IQ tests IMO.
Click to expand...
Of course there is ego, he wants to win. His coach as implied he is a "killer" (not my words). This said, no, he is not coming across like an a-hole like pharmstrong. But he absolutely wants to win and I have yet to see someone with that 'killer' winning instinct who does not have ego. Not to be mistaken with arrogance.

EDIT: to add, the fail is only if he does blow things out of the water. I think it likely he does pop people similar to Sunday. And that will be quite controllable. He keeps that up and his margin will be around 10 minutes, but all the performances since the weekend are at least humanly possible (just strung together they become exceedingly ridiculous).
 
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Cookster15

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Ripper said:
Of course there is ego, he wants to win. His coach as implied he is a "killer" (not my words). This said, no, he is not coming across like an a-hole like pharmstrong. But he absolutely wants to win and I have yet to see someone with that 'killer' winning instinct who does not have ego. Not to be mistaken with arrogance.

EDIT: to add, the fail is only if he does blow things out of the water. I think it likely he does pop people similar to Sunday. And that will be quite controllable. He keeps that up and his margin will be around 10 minutes, but all the performances since the weekend are at least humanly possible (just strung together they become exceedingly ridiculous).
Click to expand...

You said "We are talking some ego here, a fair bit of hubris".

I say no more than any other rider in the top 10.

At this level he comes across as quite humble - I think its cultural, like how Roglic is. I think Pogacar will win the Tour by 6-8 minutes. Looking back at he last 20 years 7 minutes has been the typical margin for a dominant winner. I think he and Gianetti will manage the gaps to end up similar in Paris - assuming of course he doesn't crash or have other mistakes or bad luck.
 
Ripper

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Cookster15 said:
You said "We are talking some ego here, a fair bit of hubris".

I say no more than any other rider in the top 10.

At this level he comes across as quite humble - I think its cultural, like how Roglic is. I think Pogacar will win the Tour by 6-8 minutes. Looking back at he last 20 years 7 minutes has been the typical margin for a dominant winner. I think he and Gianetti will manage the gaps to end up similar in Paris - assuming of course he doesn't crash or have other mistakes or bad luck.
Click to expand...
Perhaps you are right. This said, some of the folks in the top 10 of a GT win amazingly little. It's the little comments that can come out that I look at.
 
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Red Rick

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Netserk said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1228793487476297730
View: https://twitter.com/ammattipyoraily/status/1228793487476297730

https://twitter.com/x/status/1412789045428723716
View: https://twitter.com/ammattipyoraily/status/1412789045428723716
Click to expand...


https://twitter.com/x/status/1412845585800048642
View: https://twitter.com/ammattipyoraily/status/1412845585800048642


Okay. That would make Mayos time on the from Chalet Reynard slightly slower than Vingegaard? So he took about 2 minutes in the first 2/3ds of the climb then 1 minute in the final 1/3rd of the climb? Still I'm somewhat reluctant to just say "3 minutes difference but ITT bruh" about Mayos time, so I think wind matters but I do think Chalet Reynard times are faster if the wind on top is stronger, even if tail wind in the final kms is better for the overall climbing time.

I also think even if it's only 2/3s of the climb, even Mollemas time on Chalet Reynard looks really fast.
 
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