Pre Tour de France-thread

[Red Rick]

It's *** terrible cause the first groups get an unfair advantage to win the stage, which is made even worse by the fact that they start uphill. Realistic scenario is that Sky will have 4 riders in that first group and no other team has more than 2 men, even if they're decent climbers.

What innovation? Now new recipe, 20% less fair than it already was. Now all I want from life is watching Roland Garros where Rafa starts 15-0 ahead in every game.

If you call this innovation, then your event deserves to die a quick, fiery death.

 

[oldcrank]

This stage 17 innovation could be very interesting
especially if one team, say Team SKY, gets a really
big win in the TTT with all eight riders finishing as a
group. I'm looking forward to see how it all plays out.

 

[Broccolidwarf]

Oh, it's 17 - sorry, hadn't really looked closely at the stage map till today

Very interesting indeed.

A lot of the top 20, will be interested in going full gas from the get go, to avoid rivals teammates catching up and gaining an upper hand.

And this late in the race, we get the usual domino effect.... if one goes off the front, the next closest 2 on GC go too, which again makes 4 go, and so forth, until people break and small groups are formed.

And then, who are the best decenders, now that most captains will be without their usual "autopilot" in front of them? This stage could see isolated captains like Porte and Zakarin lose a lot of time.

I think we could see the entire top 20 split all over the road.

But, it all depends how much time is between the groups - does anyone know how they are starting this exactly?

 

[Escarabajo]

This stage 17 innovation could be very interesting
especially if one team, say Team SKY, gets a really
big win in the TTT with all eight riders finishing as a
group. I'm looking forward to see how it all plays out.

TTT is stage 3, and this new rules are for Stage 17. There are a lot of hard stages in between. It doesn't mean that Sky won't have few riders on top before stage 17.

 

[Escarabajo]

The closest stage that will resemble this was in stage 18a of 1985 when the located a double stage on the same day and the first stage was very short and all GC riders went from the get go. The stage was 53 kilometers long. If that is the case, then there is really no need to give them an advantage because they will be on top anyway.

 

[Koronin]

Ok, so this is stage 17. I can definitely see the majority of riders in the peloton calling it a day before they even start and only doing enough work to get to the end of the stage within the time limit, which is going to also have to be larger since they are staring after the group the winner is going to come from. I think we'll all be surprised if Movistar doesn't have 3 riders in that group. However, those 3 will be Landa, Quintana and Valverde and they aren't exactly going to work as they're all leaders. Many of the GC guys will be totally isolated. IF Movistar's 3 musketeers can actually work together they could play a lot of havoc with this stage. Porte could have Tejay IF he is riding the way he's capable. Bardet might have Latour with him as well. I agree Sky should have at least 3 riders, two of whom will be domestiques. By the TTT will have more or less been negated by a bunch of other stages.

 

[Asero831]

How about those KOM points. Surely, you need to be in the Top 20 to have a decent chance to get some KOM points.
Also what happens to the GC time between the 20th and 21st riders. If the starting gap is 1 minute, does it mean that the 20th GC rider has a bonus of 1 minute?

 

[Robert5091]

Apparently there will be a starting grid on the short climbing stage where people start in order of GC.

http://www.wielerflits.nl/nieuws/36...-tour-de-france-kent-nieuwe-startformule.html

Seems there will be gaps between the groups as the article says you can either sprint at the start or wait for your team ...

This sounds really gimmicky. The short stage was great last year, this is probably the one stage that didn't need more spicing up no? :Neutral:

Please translate the gist of it

Google translate go at translating the article-

The seventeenth stage in the Tour de France from Bagnères-de-Luchon to Saint-Lary-Soulan this year, besides its short distance (65 kilometers), will receive a second special element: riders will leave the ranking in order of their place. "It's a bit of a start like in Formula 1", Het Nieuwsblad draws from the mouth of the technical director at the ASO, Thierry Gouvenou.

The idea is that the first twenty riders from the rankings will leave at the very front. Followed by the next twenty in the standings. Then the groups get bigger and the drivers are grouped per forty.

This offers an extra tactical challenge for the classification men, as Gouvenou sees this addition. "If you want to sprint to the bottom of the col, you can do that. Who as a leader prefers to wait for his teammates, is also possible. At your own risk, "the Frenchman explains the risk spread.

Gouvenou confirms immediately that this is something one-off this Tour. "We only do that day. Just before such a short stage there will be tension in the air anyway. This special starting formula accentuates that ", predicts the right hand of Christian Prudhomme show from the first minute course.

 

[yaco]

The starting time won't be one minute - My guess is the gaps will be around ten seconds.

 

[Googolplex]

Reading the rules, they don't say anything about gaps between the groups, let alone minutes. I would guess it's just so that due to shortness of the stage, the front row won't get too crowded with everyone trying to get a good start.

 

[oldcrank]

Re:

Reading the rules, they don't say anything about gaps between the groups, let alone minutes. I would guess it's just so that due to shortness of the stage, the front row won't get too crowded with everyone trying to get a good start.

I agree. I don't know how they could justify any time gaps.

 

[Nirvana]

If they want a real battle the only way is individual pursuit using GC gaps like the final stage of Tour de Ski.
Putting GC men in front of the peloton without actual gaps won't change anything unless the percours is on 1 meter wide road where is almost impossible to gain positions.

 

[Avoriaz]

Latest odds from Bet365 (without Froome):

1. Porte 9/4
2. Quintana 7/2
3. Landa 11/2
4. Dumoulin 11/2
5. Nibali 13/2
6. Bernal 14/1
7. Bardet 14/1
8. Valverde 16/1
9. Thomas 16/1
10. Uran 18/1

Surprised that Porte would come out on top, but could be influence of an English language site maybe.

Fuglsang is 25/1, Mollema 40/1. Soler 200/1, kelderman 80/1, Gaudu and Meintjes 600/1...

 

[LaFlorecita]

Much ado about nothing - my guess is this new "starting order" won't change anything. Only thing I am wondering is if they'll cut the neutralized start - if not, the effect will be even smaller.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

Latest odds from Bet365 (without Froome):

1. Porte 9/4
2. Quintana 7/2
3. Landa 11/2
4. Dumoulin 11/2
5. Nibali 13/2
6. Bernal 14/1
7. Bardet 14/1
8. Valverde 16/1
9. Thomas 16/1
10. Uran 18/1

Surprised that Porte would come out on top, but could be influence of an English language site maybe.

Fuglsang is 25/1, Mollema 40/1. Soler 200/1, kelderman 80/1, Gaudu and Meintjes 600/1...

Lol at Dumoulin having better odds than Nibali. What are froome's current odds btw?

 

[Netserk]

Re:

Much ado about nothing - my guess is this new "starting order" won't change anything. Only thing I am wondering is if they'll cut the neutralized start - if not, the effect will be even smaller.

No neutral start that day.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

The more I think about the likely Sky squad, the more annoyed I am about this TTT nonsense. What kind of idiot decides to give the defending champion, who already benefits from the strongest team in a load of ways, a large free time bonus? The only reason there’s any suspense at all is that Froome will have the Giro in his legs. If he hadn’t done the Giro the Tour would be over before it starts.

This was always going to be an issue.
You don't just give the GC rider with the strongest team (= already an advantage) an extra couple of minutes on the rest.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

Much ado about nothing - my guess is this new "starting order" won't change anything. Only thing I am wondering is if they'll cut the neutralized start - if not, the effect will be even smaller.

No neutral start that day.

That makes sense - still, won't matter all that much, domestiques will just have to spend a tiny bit more energy to get to their team leader.

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

The more I think about the likely Sky squad, the more annoyed I am about this TTT nonsense. What kind of idiot decides to give the defending champion, who already benefits from the strongest team in a load of ways, a large free time bonus? The only reason there’s any suspense at all is that Froome will have the Giro in his legs. If he hadn’t done the Giro the Tour would be over before it starts.

This was always going to be an issue.
You don't just give the GC rider with the strongest team (= already an advantage) an extra couple of minutes on the rest.

Prudhomme has something on his mind but I wonder what ?

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

Hmm, its a bit confusing the rule quoted says the lower ranked riders can choose when they go but think article says top group of 20 goes, then the next ranked 20 goes, then the group size changes to 40 sets going off. Certainly going to be different, not sure if it will be different good or bad though!

No, the rule says the top 20 are positioned in their group in rows according to their position (so #1 is right at the front, #20 a bit further back), and the rest of the riders can position themselves wherever they want in their corresponding group.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Richie Porte is top favorite again? Great for him!

 

[axl]

Why this innovation has popped just yesterday ? Why has ASO not spoke about it already ? I really don't get it.

Either the different groups start with a large gap (say 1 minute or more) and this has a big influence on this particular stage, but also on all the preceding 16 stages because every team will want to have as many guys as possible in the top20. By the way, I would expect more tension as usual (if that's even possible) because not only the leader but also the domestiques will fights to stay at the front on every stage. Carnage incoming. And in my opinion, this is so unfair for the stage win that it should not be possible. And ASO would not talk about that on the presentation, let that be in a small paragraph in the handbook and wait for a curious guy to dig it ?

Either the different groups start with a small gap and there is no point in doing so, other that having spectacular images for TV.

 

[tobydawq]

Re:

Richie Porte is top favorite again? Great for him!

It should only be on a non-Froome, non-cobbles, non-descents bet. But then he indeed would be off to the races.

 

[rlntlssly]

Since the Dauphine has been used as a Tour preview/experiment race for several years, I can't comprehend why you wouldn't at least try this novel formula out there first. Doing it for the first time in a key stage of the Tour seems reckless at best.

 

[dacooley]

who knows perhaps having the strongest team is a real key to pulling off the double. not that froome gets considered #1 favorite providing he's allowed to start, but he has a good chance.