Pre Tour de France-thread

[silvergrenade]

Re: Re:

So according to your logic...of 25 possible main protagonists GC wise you'll have 40%, that's 10 riders, still in contention for the top spots in the most important stages. Still looks good to me

No, not according to my logic.

According to what happens nearly every year. Past results.

You are both right

Incidentally.... I predict the Vuelta is going to be crazy this year.

Every GT captain and lieutenant will be there, because they all need the Vuelta, to get ready for the World Championships.

Only Froome and Dumoulin may opt out, having already done 2 GTs.

They wont ride the Vuelta. Period

 

[drebelo]

Re: Re:

So according to your logic...of 25 possible main protagonists GC wise you'll have 40%, that's 10 riders, still in contention for the top spots in the most important stages. Still looks good to me

No, not according to my logic.

According to what happens nearly every year. Past results.

You are both right

Incidentally.... I predict the Vuelta is going to be crazy this year.

Every GT captain and lieutenant will be there, because they all need the Vuelta, to get ready for the World Championships.

Only Froome and Dumoulin may opt out, having already done 2 GTs.

They wont ride the Vuelta. Period

I could see Froome riding the vuelta if he had won the Tour.

 

[silvergrenade]

Re: Re:

So according to your logic...of 25 possible main protagonists GC wise you'll have 40%, that's 10 riders, still in contention for the top spots in the most important stages. Still looks good to me

No, not according to my logic.

According to what happens nearly every year. Past results.

You are both right

Incidentally.... I predict the Vuelta is going to be crazy this year.

Every GT captain and lieutenant will be there, because they all need the Vuelta, to get ready for the World Championships.

Only Froome and Dumoulin may opt out, having already done 2 GTs.

They wont ride the Vuelta. Period

I could see Froome riding the vuelta if he had won the Tour.

Dont think so.
If he DNFs the Tour only then will he ride the Vuelta as redemption.
The worlds is not part of his program this year.

 

[drebelo]

I get what you saying but if he wins the Tour he will have a one in a lifetime oppurtunity to win the 3 GT's and that might be tempting to try to shoot for the history.

 

[Son of Amsterhammer]

Froome will likely have one chance to win the WC. He should go for it.

 

[RedheadDane]

Re:

Danish commentators said today at the TdS TT, that Fuglsang was riding an old TT bike, because his new one was delayed in shipping, so arguably, his TT should be better at the tour

Also got the little tidbit on EF and Astana, that they are both going on TTT training camp, with their tour squads, later this week - seems a lot of teams have full focus on that stage.

For Astana in particular this seems to be a pretty good idea.

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

Danish commentators said today at the TdS TT, that Fuglsang was riding an old TT bike, because his new one was delayed in shipping, so arguably, his TT should be better at the tour

Also got the little tidbit on EF and Astana, that they are both going on TTT training camp, with their tour squads, later this week - seems a lot of teams have full focus on that stage.

For Astana in particular this seems to be a pretty good idea.

Bahrain may want to consider this as well.

 

[RedheadDane]

Re: Re:

Danish commentators said today at the TdS TT, that Fuglsang was riding an old TT bike, because his new one was delayed in shipping, so arguably, his TT should be better at the tour

Also got the little tidbit on EF and Astana, that they are both going on TTT training camp, with their tour squads, later this week - seems a lot of teams have full focus on that stage.

For Astana in particular this seems to be a pretty good idea.

Bahrain may want to consider this as well.

They finished in the top 10, not nearly as bad as Astana.

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

Danish commentators said today at the TdS TT, that Fuglsang was riding an old TT bike, because his new one was delayed in shipping, so arguably, his TT should be better at the tour

Also got the little tidbit on EF and Astana, that they are both going on TTT training camp, with their tour squads, later this week - seems a lot of teams have full focus on that stage.

For Astana in particular this seems to be a pretty good idea.

Bahrain may want to consider this as well.

They finished in the top 10, not nearly as bad as Astana.

They did, however, have Nibali and the Izagirre brothers done a TTT together even in training? I do think familiarity would help at least a little.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

Is it just me or is this year's Tour shaping to be full of potential protagonists GC wise. A lot more than in previous years. Many interesting stories. Froome's double attempt, Tom's double, the Movistar trio, Porte to finally shine through 3 weeks, Sky's domestics (Thomas and Bernal) waiting to take over from Froome, Nibali beeing himself, Uran and Bardet to take the final step to the top, see if Roglič can compete in GTs, Fuglsang going extremely well, Zakarin's first try at Tour GC, will Adam repeat the performance of his brother, and so on and so on...
It's going to be great. I can sense it.

I agree. I can't ever remember a field this strong where you really feel like a lot of different guys can win this whole thing + a bunch of strong outsiders like Urán, Zakarin, Fuglsang, Roglic, Martin etc.

2003 vibes.

 

[Rollthedice]

Re: Re:

Danish commentators said today at the TdS TT, that Fuglsang was riding an old TT bike, because his new one was delayed in shipping, so arguably, his TT should be better at the tour

Also got the little tidbit on EF and Astana, that they are both going on TTT training camp, with their tour squads, later this week - seems a lot of teams have full focus on that stage.

For Astana in particular this seems to be a pretty good idea.

Bahrain may want to consider this as well.

They finished in the top 10, not nearly as bad as Astana.

They did, however, have Nibali and the Izagirre brothers done a TTT together even in training? I do think familiarity would help at least a little.

Yes they did and they will get the new bikes in time plus equipment kind of what Sky are wearing for TT. Nibali expects to loose no more than a minute.

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

Is it just me or is this year's Tour shaping to be full of potential protagonists GC wise. A lot more than in previous years. Many interesting stories. Froome's double attempt, Tom's double, the Movistar trio, Porte to finally shine through 3 weeks, Sky's domestics (Thomas and Bernal) waiting to take over from Froome, Nibali beeing himself, Uran and Bardet to take the final step to the top, see if Roglič can compete in GTs, Fuglsang going extremely well, Zakarin's first try at Tour GC, will Adam repeat the performance of his brother, and so on and so on...
It's going to be great. I can sense it.

I agree. I can't ever remember a field this strong where you really feel like a lot of different guys can win this whole thing + a bunch of strong outsiders like Urán, Zakarin, Fuglsang, Roglic, Martin etc.

2003 vibes.

The only real difference to last year is Dumoulin and Nibali being in the race. Froome doubling up. I don't think Zakarin or Roglic are serious podium threats. Martin and Fuglsang and Uran can make the top five without surprising. Quintana without the Giro in his legs has no excuses this year but needs to minimize his losses on cobbles and TTT to have any hope. It could be more about how Froome copes with the Giro fatigue. I don't expect him to attack but like last year, rely on the TT and even better for him, TTT to make a difference. I have doubts about him holding it together in the third week this year. Without the Giro, on this course Froome would be hot favourite.

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

Is it just me or is this year's Tour shaping to be full of potential protagonists GC wise. A lot more than in previous years. Many interesting stories. Froome's double attempt, Tom's double, the Movistar trio, Porte to finally shine through 3 weeks, Sky's domestics (Thomas and Bernal) waiting to take over from Froome, Nibali beeing himself, Uran and Bardet to take the final step to the top, see if Roglič can compete in GTs, Fuglsang going extremely well, Zakarin's first try at Tour GC, will Adam repeat the performance of his brother, and so on and so on...
It's going to be great. I can sense it.

I agree. I can't ever remember a field this strong where you really feel like a lot of different guys can win this whole thing + a bunch of strong outsiders like Urán, Zakarin, Fuglsang, Roglic, Martin etc.

2003 vibes.

The only real difference to last year is Dumoulin and Nibali being in the race. Froome doubling up. I don't think Zakarin or Roglic are serious podium threats. Martin and Fuglsang and Uran can make the top five without surprising. Quintana without the Giro in his legs has no excuses this year but needs to minimize his losses on cobbles and TTT to have any hope. It could be more about how Froome copes with the Giro fatigue. I don't expect him to attack but like last year, rely on the TT and even better for him, TTT to make a difference. I have doubts about him holding it together in the third week this year. Without the Giro, on this course Froome would be hot favourite.

Quintana will have an excuse, likely Landa being there will be his excuse this year.
Bardet can podium again, possibly win IF everything goes exactly right for him.
If Nibali is on form he'll be tough.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re: Re:

Is it just me or is this year's Tour shaping to be full of potential protagonists GC wise. A lot more than in previous years. Many interesting stories. Froome's double attempt, Tom's double, the Movistar trio, Porte to finally shine through 3 weeks, Sky's domestics (Thomas and Bernal) waiting to take over from Froome, Nibali beeing himself, Uran and Bardet to take the final step to the top, see if Roglič can compete in GTs, Fuglsang going extremely well, Zakarin's first try at Tour GC, will Adam repeat the performance of his brother, and so on and so on...
It's going to be great. I can sense it.

I agree. I can't ever remember a field this strong where you really feel like a lot of different guys can win this whole thing + a bunch of strong outsiders like Urán, Zakarin, Fuglsang, Roglic, Martin etc.

2003 vibes.

The only real difference to last year is Dumoulin and Nibali being in the race. Froome doubling up. I don't think Zakarin or Roglic are serious podium threats. Martin and Fuglsang and Uran can make the top five without surprising. Quintana without the Giro in his legs has no excuses this year but needs to minimize his losses on cobbles and TTT to have any hope. It could be more about how Froome copes with the Giro fatigue. I don't expect him to attack but like last year, rely on the TT and even better for him, TTT to make a difference. I have doubts about him holding it together in the third week this year. Without the Giro, on this course Froome would be hot favourite.

Quintana will have an excuse, likely Landa being there will be his excuse this year.
Bardet can podium again, possibly win IF everything goes exactly right for him.
If Nibali is on form he'll be tough.

Oh dear, and we haven't even started the race and he already has an excuse!

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

Is it just me or is this year's Tour shaping to be full of potential protagonists GC wise. A lot more than in previous years. Many interesting stories. Froome's double attempt, Tom's double, the Movistar trio, Porte to finally shine through 3 weeks, Sky's domestics (Thomas and Bernal) waiting to take over from Froome, Nibali beeing himself, Uran and Bardet to take the final step to the top, see if Roglič can compete in GTs, Fuglsang going extremely well, Zakarin's first try at Tour GC, will Adam repeat the performance of his brother, and so on and so on...
It's going to be great. I can sense it.

I agree. I can't ever remember a field this strong where you really feel like a lot of different guys can win this whole thing + a bunch of strong outsiders like Urán, Zakarin, Fuglsang, Roglic, Martin etc.

2003 vibes.

The only real difference to last year is Dumoulin and Nibali being in the race. Froome doubling up. I don't think Zakarin or Roglic are serious podium threats. Martin and Fuglsang and Uran can make the top five without surprising. Quintana without the Giro in his legs has no excuses this year but needs to minimize his losses on cobbles and TTT to have any hope. It could be more about how Froome copes with the Giro fatigue. I don't expect him to attack but like last year, rely on the TT and even better for him, TTT to make a difference. I have doubts about him holding it together in the third week this year. Without the Giro, on this course Froome would be hot favourite.

Quintana will have an excuse, likely Landa being there will be his excuse this year.
Bardet can podium again, possibly win IF everything goes exactly right for him.
If Nibali is on form he'll be tough.

Oh dear, and we haven't even started the race and he already has an excuse!

I know, he's already got a built in excuse. It does seem the obvious one. Although he could surprise us and come up with something different.

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

Is it just me or is this year's Tour shaping to be full of potential protagonists GC wise. A lot more than in previous years. Many interesting stories. Froome's double attempt, Tom's double, the Movistar trio, Porte to finally shine through 3 weeks, Sky's domestics (Thomas and Bernal) waiting to take over from Froome, Nibali beeing himself, Uran and Bardet to take the final step to the top, see if Roglič can compete in GTs, Fuglsang going extremely well, Zakarin's first try at Tour GC, will Adam repeat the performance of his brother, and so on and so on...
It's going to be great. I can sense it.

I agree. I can't ever remember a field this strong where you really feel like a lot of different guys can win this whole thing + a bunch of strong outsiders like Urán, Zakarin, Fuglsang, Roglic, Martin etc.

2003 vibes.

The only real difference to last year is Dumoulin and Nibali being in the race. Froome doubling up. I don't think Zakarin or Roglic are serious podium threats. Martin and Fuglsang and Uran can make the top five without surprising. Quintana without the Giro in his legs has no excuses this year but needs to minimize his losses on cobbles and TTT to have any hope. It could be more about how Froome copes with the Giro fatigue. I don't expect him to attack but like last year, rely on the TT and even better for him, TTT to make a difference. I have doubts about him holding it together in the third week this year. Without the Giro, on this course Froome would be hot favourite.

Quintana will have an excuse, likely Landa being there will be his excuse this year.
Bardet can podium again, possibly win IF everything goes exactly right for him.
If Nibali is on form he'll be tough.

With Bardet the usual issue will be the TT. The TTT could be a problem but the ITT is a better one for him, at least it's not flat but the problem is his ITT these days is generally mediocre sometimes on the level of Landa.

 

[dacooley]

Re: Re:

Is it just me or is this year's Tour shaping to be full of potential protagonists GC wise. A lot more than in previous years. Many interesting stories. Froome's double attempt, Tom's double, the Movistar trio, Porte to finally shine through 3 weeks, Sky's domestics (Thomas and Bernal) waiting to take over from Froome, Nibali beeing himself, Uran and Bardet to take the final step to the top, see if Roglič can compete in GTs, Fuglsang going extremely well, Zakarin's first try at Tour GC, will Adam repeat the performance of his brother, and so on and so on...
It's going to be great. I can sense it.

I agree. I can't ever remember a field this strong where you really feel like a lot of different guys can win this whole thing + a bunch of strong outsiders like Urán, Zakarin, Fuglsang, Roglic, Martin etc.

2003 vibes.

The only real difference to last year is Dumoulin and Nibali being in the race. Froome doubling up. I don't think Zakarin or Roglic are serious podium threats. Martin and Fuglsang and Uran can make the top five without surprising. Quintana without the Giro in his legs has no excuses this year but needs to minimize his losses on cobbles and TTT to have any hope. It could be more about how Froome copes with the Giro fatigue. I don't expect him to attack but like last year, rely on the TT and even better for him, TTT to make a difference. I have doubts about him holding it together in the third week this year. Without the Giro, on this course Froome would be hot favourite.

I'm sure froome will attack. Having ridden the Giro hardly makes possible to do the Tour on a consistent level, so it's almost certainly going to be a combo of monstrous yoyoing and counter-attacks, something similar to the 2012 Vuelta with a far better form this time.

 

[GP Blanco]

Lotto-Jumbo confirmed their team:
Kruijswijk
Roglic
Gesink
Tolhoek
Groenewegen
Roosen
Jansen
Martens

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Re:

Lotto-Jumbo confirmed their team:
Kruijswijk
Roglic
Gesink
Tolhoek
Groenewegen
Roosen
Jansen
Martens

One of the relatively few teams we will see with a genuinely split focus. It will be interesting to see how they pull it off. If Groenewegen looks like the fastest sprinter but gets consistently beaten by sprinters with stronger teams, I doubt if he will be too happy.

 

[Broccolidwarf]

Re: Re:

Lotto-Jumbo confirmed their team:
Kruijswijk
Roglic
Gesink
Tolhoek
Groenewegen
Roosen
Jansen
Martens

One of the relatively few teams we will see with a genuinely split focus. It will be interesting to see how they pull it off. If Groenewegen looks like the fastest sprinter but gets consistently beaten by sprinters with stronger teams, I doubt if he will be too happy.

Must admit, I dunno enough about Tolhoek, Roosen, Jansen and Martens - are any of them any good in the mountains, cobbles or TTT?

Either way, when you have a guy in the team, who has won his last 3 stage races, I would have built the team around him, not split the attention.

But hey, if they are all "Valgren types", there is no issue - then they can do both

 

[Broccolidwarf]

Little anecdote - that I find funny:

Danish TV caught up with Bjarne Riis at the finish line, at the last stage of TdS yesterday - he was there as a spectator.

They asked him how he thought Fuglsang looked, and his response was "I've never seen him this trimmed before".

Chris Anker Soerensen (former Saxo/Tinkoff rider, who rode for Riis for years) was commentating the stage for danish TV, and upon hearing that quote from Riis, said:

"Bjarne calling a rider trimmed is big, I'd say it's bigger for Jacob than his Dauphine win last year.... I even think it is bigger than his olympics silver"

 

[bajbar]

Re: Re:

Lotto-Jumbo confirmed their team:
Kruijswijk
Roglic
Gesink
Tolhoek
Groenewegen
Roosen
Jansen
Martens

One of the relatively few teams we will see with a genuinely split focus. It will be interesting to see how they pull it off. If Groenewegen looks like the fastest sprinter but gets consistently beaten by sprinters with stronger teams, I doubt if he will be too happy.

Must admit, I dunno enough about Tolhoek, Roosen, Jansen and Martens - are any of them any good in the mountains, cobbles or TTT?

Either way, when you have a guy in the team, who has won his last 3 stage races, I would have built the team around him, not split the attention.

But hey, if they are all "Valgren types", there is no issue - then they can do both

Tolhoek was very good in the Dauphine. He finished the GC just outside the top 10. Roosen is basically there to be the leadout man for Groenewegen. Martens and Jansen are supposed to be the multitasking duo of domestiques. The level of qualitiy though is questionable. But they did manage to break the pack quite decently on the hilly and mountain stages in Slovenia (stage 3 and 4). So we should wait and see. None of them has any special results in the TTs but sometimes you don't necesarily need very good ITT riders to have a good TTT...

 

[Broccolidwarf]

Re: Re:

Danish commentators said today at the TdS TT, that Fuglsang was riding an old TT bike, because his new one was delayed in shipping, so arguably, his TT should be better at the tour

Also got the little tidbit on EF and Astana, that they are both going on TTT training camp, with their tour squads, later this week - seems a lot of teams have full focus on that stage.

For Astana in particular this seems to be a pretty good idea.

Fuglsang said they have never practiced it, as in ever.

They are doing a 3 day TTT training camp later this week in Nice, for the 12 in the picture for the Tour squad - and probably do final selection after that.

It seems the team is not as set as I thought, with arguably 2 spots up for grabs.

The certain ones are:

Fuglsang
Kangert
Cataldo
Valgren
Cort
Sanchez has said he is riding the Tour publicly, so would assume he is certain too

Last two spots are open, and very dependent on who can also perform at the TTT training, as well as work for Fuglsang in the mountains (the first 6 can all do cobbles, TT and climbs).

I'd say Fraile, Hansen, Gatto, Kozhatayev and Gidich are fighting over the 2 spots.

Personally, I'd like to see Fraile and Gidich, who have both had great spring seasons.

 

[Broccolidwarf]

Re: Re:

Lotto-Jumbo confirmed their team:
Kruijswijk
Roglic
Gesink
Tolhoek
Groenewegen
Roosen
Jansen
Martens

One of the relatively few teams we will see with a genuinely split focus. It will be interesting to see how they pull it off. If Groenewegen looks like the fastest sprinter but gets consistently beaten by sprinters with stronger teams, I doubt if he will be too happy.

Must admit, I dunno enough about Tolhoek, Roosen, Jansen and Martens - are any of them any good in the mountains, cobbles or TTT?

Either way, when you have a guy in the team, who has won his last 3 stage races, I would have built the team around him, not split the attention.

But hey, if they are all "Valgren types", there is no issue - then they can do both

Tolhoek was very good in the Dauphine. He finished the GC just outside the top 10. Roosen is basically there to be the leadout man for Groenewegen. Martens and Jansen are supposed to be the multitasking duo of domestiques. The level of qualitiy though is questionable. But they did manage to break the pack quite decently on the hilly and mountain stages in Slovenia (stage 3 and 4). So we should wait and see. None of them has any special results in the TTs but sometimes you don't necesarily need very good ITT riders to have a good TTT...

Ah ok - I'd like to see one more proper climber to support Roglic.

Otherwise his options will be severely limited, when the big teams start to play games in the mountains - unless Kruijswijk is riding entirely as a domestique? - That would help a great deal.

TTT - I agree.

Only Sky and BMC enter teams that can be called specialists - everyone else will be riding for 3rd, and the gaps between them probably won't be too big, unless a captain has a defect.

Conversely, other teams look far better than BMC particularly, and Sky to some degree, on the cobbles, where time gaps may be just as big, especially if it rains.

I could see teams like Astana, Sunweb and QS drop the hammer on the Roubaix stage.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Kruijswijk will not ride like a domestique in the beginning I think. Only when his chances for a good GC are gone.

Tolhoek will be there until the base of last climb, same should be expected of Gesink. The others are more for Groenewegen. And btw, this year he showed multiple times he doesn't need a train, he needs people to put him in the wheel or near the other sprinters, than he just beats them by starting from ridicolous far (300/350m and still winning easily