Predict the Top 5 GC in Tour de France

[Miburo]

Mollema

 

[ILovecycling]

Well,the time has come...time to decide the un-decideable

1.Quintana
2.Froome
3.Contador
4.Nibali
5.Rodriguez

...thats almost random list cuz my percentages look like this 25%Dawg, 25% Nairo, 20% Nibs ,20% AC, 10% (Purito, Valverde, Pinot, 'Insert surprise')

 

[jens_attacks]

1.contador
2.froome
3.rolland
4.pinot
5.bardet

 

[Anderis]

I'll make a controversial prediction:
1. Nibali
2. Quintana
3. Hesjedal
4. Pinot
5. Mollema

 

[jens_attacks]

I'll make a controversial prediction:
1. Nibali
2. Quintana
3. Hesjedal
4. Pinot
5. Mollema

damn right controversial! how on earth will mollema survive the first week massacre. in fact, i have such a fear of the first week of the tour de france, that one night i dream that tosatto won a mountain stage(and i had the feeling that all the big gc guys crashed out of the race)

soon we'll need a thread about that. like ride in the back for fucc sake. there's no room for all the guys up there
pantani used to ride there, yes maybe you can lose up to a minute in one week. but at least you arrive in one piece in the mountains. no more massacres!

 

[LaFlorecita]

damn right controversial! how on earth will mollema survive the first week massacre. in fact, i have such a fear of the first week of the tour de france, that one night i dream that tosatto won a mountain stage(and i had the feeling that all the big gc guys crashed out of the race)

soon we'll need a thread about that. like ride in the back for fucc sake. there's no room for all the guys up there
pantani used to ride there, yes maybe you can lose up to a minute in one week. but at least you arrive in one piece in the mountains. no more massacres!

lol

 

[jens_attacks]

and now i see that i predicted myself that froome will finish the tour trolololol

seriously,ride at the back guys.

 

[mihhint]

If I've learned smth last few years, it is not to under-estimate Astanas during GTs. If Nibali is in the kind of form he was last year, and if the estimates about his 2014 power outputs and such are to be believed(strongest TDF performance of last 5 years etc), then there is no reason to believe why he couldn't be as strong, if not stronger this year. Also if their team performance in Giro is anything to go by, it should be reasonable to think his team to be even stronger than last year. If so, I'd not be surprised by a major breakout performance from Taaramäe as well. Anyways my money is on Nibali to find a way.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Re:

If I've learned smth last few years, it is not to under-estimate Astanas during GTs. If Nibali is in the kind of form he was last year, and if the estimates about his 2014 power outputs and such are to be believed(strongest TDF performance of last 5 years etc), then there is no reason to believe why he couldn't be as strong, if not stronger this year. Also if their team performance in Giro is anything to go by, it should be reasonable to think his team to be even stronger than last year. If so, I'd not be surprised by a major breakout performance from Taaramäe as well. Anyways my money is on Nibali to find a way.

Source? I thought his performance was estimated to be roughly the same as Froome 2013 or maybe a shade lesser? I do think Nibali will be right in there. If he is in last year's shape, no one is crushing him.

 

[Alber_glvz]

Just a doubt. If Movistar had around 670 points in the UCI World Tour, Amador won around 90, Intxausti won around 15, why do they have only around 740 points now??? I don´t understand..

 

[Netserk]

Only the top-5 riders of your team count.

 

[Alber_glvz]

Re:

Only the top-5 riders of your team count.

Thank you!!!

 

[Happy dude]

Cavendish
Kittel
Kristoff
Greipel
Bouhanni

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

Uh oh, this one is difficult. The assumption is, that none of the top GC contenders have bad luck, crash, injury or illness. Which is quite hypothetical.

The battle for the overall win, I suspect will be between Froome and Contador, they'll sit on each other. Spoonwise. When the battles go on, they're plenty times above limit, so I suspect the loser of them not to be second.

And the loser will be Contador.

I figure that, since every of his competitors knows he is in lack of time to hit a second peak after Il Giro. So they will take advantage of that and put maximum stress on Contador and Tinkoff-Saxo. I suspect both Astana, Sky, Movistar to start the first week with a handfull of grenades. Just to shake Berto.

In the second week, I suspect the first real mountain stage to explode and reveal Froome and Contador to be a level up upon Quintana, Nibali and Valverde.

Albertos nature is not conservative rides. He will suffer from that with the pressure from Sky, Astana and Movistar.

Hence, with no ilness, chute, bad luck, the GC in Paris will be something like this:

1. Froome
2. Valverde +3m
3. Quintana +3m
4. Nibali +4m
5. Contador +5m

 

[ILovecycling]

Re:

Uh oh, this one is difficult. The assumption is, that none of the top GC contenders have bad luck, crash, injury or illness. Which is quite hypothetical.

The battle for the overall win, I suspect will be between Froome and Contador, they'll sit on each other. Spoonwise. When the battles go on, they're plenty times above limit, so I suspect the loser of them not to be second.

And the loser will be Contador.

I figure that, since every of his competitors knows he is in lack of time to hit a second peak after Il Giro. So they will take advantage of that and put maximum stress on Contador and Tinkoff-Saxo. I suspect both Astana, Sky, Movistar to start the first week with a handfull of grenades. Just to shake Berto.

In the second week, I suspect the first real mountain stage to explode and reveal Froome and Contador to be a level up upon Quintana, Nibali and Valverde.

Albertos nature is not conservative rides. He will suffer from that with the pressure from Sky, Astana and Movistar.

Hence, with no ilness, chute, bad luck, the GC in Paris will be something like this:

1. Froome
2. Valverde +3m
3. Quintana +3m
4. Nibali +4m
5. Contador +5m

For this kind of result Froome must be better than 2013 and Valverde better than 2000everything

 

[mihhint]

Re: Re:

Source? I thought his performance was estimated to be roughly the same as Froome 2013 or maybe a shade lesser? I do think Nibali will be right in there. If he is in last year's shape, no one is crushing him.

Yeah, I guess it was almost identical to Froome from what I'm reading now.

I think I had this graph coming to my mind:

Where 2014 data was based on these climbs:

 

[Irondan]

Nibali
Quintana
Contador
Froome
Pinot

 

[rafaelalencar]

I think that with this team and support,like I saw in the Giro, Contador can't win the TdF. He is the best nowadays but his team sucks and Froome, Quintana and even Nibali are not Aru or Landa.
My top 5 will be:
Froome
Quintana
Contador
Nibali
Pinot/Bardet/Peraud

 

[Sasquatch]

1. Alberto Contador
2. Nairo Quintana
3. Joaquim Rodriguez
4. Vincenzo Nibali
5. Alejandro Valverde

 

[Pippo_San]

Contador will be lucky to be in the top 5.
Froome? If his mind is as frail as Porte's...

1. Nibali
2. Quintana
3. Pinot
4. Contador
5. Valverde

DNF Froome

 

[richwagmn]

Re:

Contador will be lucky to be in the top 5.
Froome? If his mind is as frail as Porte's...

1. Nibali
2. Quintana
3. Pinot
4. Contador
5. Valverde

DNF Froome

Nibali? Umm, this TDF has real competition present. Nibali isn't even in the same class of climber as Froome, Contador and Quintana.

Nibali only wins when no real contenders are present.

 

[dacooley]

Re: Re:

Personally I still think he can put in monster performances but can he keep things together over three weeks facing stiffer competition than he did in 2013?

Froome is quite likely able to be so strong that competition will look like it did in 2013.

 

[observer]

People write off Nibali? He has won multiple GTs.

He beat Rodriguez in the Vuelta (back when he could probably have won a GT), and Uran in the Giro.
Plus judging by the Giro, his team will be quite strong too. I don't think he'd be at too much of a disadvantage.
Good bike handler over the cobbles, in the rain and down the mountains. I think he might just win it.

Contador might have good too deep at the giro, but i still think he'd be the one that the others are marking.

 

[damian13ster]

Re: Re:

Contador will be lucky to be in the top 5.
Froome? If his mind is as frail as Porte's...

1. Nibali
2. Quintana
3. Pinot
4. Contador
5. Valverde

DNF Froome

Nibali? Umm, this TDF has real competition present. Nibali isn't even in the same class of climber as Froome, Contador and Quintana.

Nibali only wins when no real contenders are present.

Not sure I am following...

So what you are saying is that despite having hard evidence (mihhint's data) that Nibali was by far the best climber in the Tour since 2009, by knowing that he is great tactically, a 'pure' racer, and after seeing the show he put on a cobbles destroying every contender by at least 2:30 you are still saying that Nibali isn't the same class as those you mentioned???

Is that what you were trying to say? And among those who mentioned you have a guy who won a GT once, a guy who was a distant runner-up in that GT and needed Stelvio-gate to beat Uran in Giro (the same Uran that Nibali absolutely destroyed). Not sure I follow your logic

 

[LaFlorecita]

Not sure what cobbles have to do with which class of climbers you're in.