Richard Carapaz discussion thread

[Forever The Best]

I can't see how he can lose this race unless he crashes/gets mechanical or something like that. Gavia is out so any altitude craziness and huge attacks are ruled out and he is expected to be strongest on Mortirolo anyway. And with Movi so strong the all-out war on Manghen is not gonna happen.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

I can't see how he can lose this race unless he crashes/gets mechanical or something like that. Gavia is out so any altitude craziness and huge attacks are ruled out and he is expected to be strongest on Mortirolo anyway. And with Movi so strong the all-out war on Manghen is not gonna happen.

Well, Carapaz is born in 3 km altitude or something like that, so I doubt Gavia would be a problem. But its probably in his interest to remove the chances of Gavia shenanigans with snow, ice etc.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Actually Im not even sure Roglic would win 47 seconds on Carapaz at this point in Verona. I think I would take Carapaz in that duel, but he obviously still wants to get a bigger advantage and keep Nibali in check.

 

[Forever The Best]

Re: Re:

I can't see how he can lose this race unless he crashes/gets mechanical or something like that. Gavia is out so any altitude craziness and huge attacks are ruled out and he is expected to be strongest on Mortirolo anyway. And with Movi so strong the all-out war on Manghen is not gonna happen.

Well, Carapaz is born in 3 km altitude or something like that, so I doubt Gavia would be a problem. But its probably in his interest to remove the chances of Gavia shenanigans with snow, ice etc.

Terrible weather at Gavia could have made the stage crazy and on that kind of weather everything could have completely changed, so Gavia out is good news for him.

 

[LaFlorecita]

I really believe he is in it to win it which feels crazy, but then I remember that he was 4th already last year

 

[Valv.Piti]

Maybe it was a blessing in disguise for everyone involved that Valverde (including himself) didn't race the Giro. With his high mountain climbing in decline, it was probably better not to have too many cooks around.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Re:

Maybe it was a blessing in disguise for everyone involved that Valverde (including himself) didn't race the Giro. With his high mountain climbing in decline, it was probably better not to have too many cooks around.

I have to agree.
Btw, he really reminds me of Purito in his prime, but with better TT-skills.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Maybe it was a blessing in disguise for everyone involved that Valverde (including himself) didn't race the Giro. With his high mountain climbing in decline, it was probably better not to have too many cooks around.

I have to agree.
Btw, he really reminds me of Purito in his prime, but with better TT-skills.

Apart from both being horrendous TTers at baseline they don't seem similar in the slightest.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Purito would never dream about closing a gap on a flat section to begin with. No seriously, Carapaz seems to have a better engine and better at the very hard mountain stages while also being more powerfull in general. Purito was much more of a specialist and the best the world has ever seen on the extremely steep, short stuff. He transitioned that ability to being one of the best climbers from 2010-2013, but I'd still argue they are quite dissimilar in many aspects, altho Carapaz also have a very good kick.

 

[Red Rick]

Reminds me more of Rasmussen 2007 to be honest, if we take away all the Clinic issues. Gets too much time for free. Doesn't break down when expected too.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Yeah, but the 'getting for free' in both cases are also a bit misleading since both of them have proven (so far) that they were the best two climbers of the race to begin with. So some of that is also taken by force.

 

[rick james]

Looks mega strong just now, long may it continue just to put a beat down on Nibali

 

[Salvarani]

Wishing him the best of luck in the 3rd week, would be cool if he won

 

[Valv.Piti]

Him winning would be the biggest upset since... Horner?

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

Him winning would be the biggest upset since... Horner?

Based on previous results?

Geraint Thomas.

Carapaz is what? 25? Got 4th in his previous Giro, him making progression is a lot less seemingly left field than Thomas.

Dumoulin was also a big, big surprise at the time.

 

[Rollthedice]

Re: Re:

Him winning would be the biggest upset since... Horner?

Based on previous results?

Geraint Thomas.

Carapaz is what? 25? Got 4th in his previous Giro, him making progression is a lot less seemingly left field than Thomas.

Dumoulin was also a big, big surprise at the time.

Again with Nibali trying to go after Quintana, blowing up and being dropped in the process by the future winner. And in that Vuelta Nibali was watching Purito and Valverde while Horner dissapeared in the distance out of the saddle. Now, while in the process of establishing a beautiful friendship with Roglic, an Ecuadorian is about to run away with the Giro.

 

[ice&fire]

Carapaz will be 26 next Wednesday

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

Him winning would be the biggest upset since... Horner?

Based on previous results?

Geraint Thomas.

Carapaz is what? 25? Got 4th in his previous Giro, him making progression is a lot less seemingly left field than Thomas.

Dumoulin was also a big, big surprise at the time.

I'd still argue the people who were surprised about thomas winning the tour last year only were so because they were refusing to open their eyes in the months prior to the tour.
Dumoulin was a pretty big surprise when it happened but then again Dumoulin was already a much bigger name in 2017 than Carapaz was before this giro and Dumoulin was the kind of guy nobody was sure about what his ceiling might be. Everyone knew he was an elite TT'er and everyone knew he was a very good climber, the question was really just how good he could climb once he put his focus on it.
What Dumoulin and Carapaz have in common is that neither are world beaters in preperation races which is why nobody saw these kind of performances coming even months after the seasons started. Imagine Roglic would only be mediocre in preperation races as well and then he had turned up at last years tour and out of nowhere finished fourth. That would have been seen as a borderline miracle, but because he had been strong throughout the season nobody was really shocked by his tour.
I actually think the Roglic comparison is a pretty good one. Carapaz massively improved from 2017 to 2018 and I guess because he was already quite old people thought that would be his peak. Turned out it wasn't and his improvement hasn't even stagnated going into 2019. If he was just 3 years younger that kind of improvement from last year to this year wouldn't shock anyone but you don't expect it from a 26 year old.

Now that I think about it I actually find it genuinely funny that every year since 2015 there was one guy in the giro who won or could have won the race who nobody really saw coming. Landa in 2015 was quite a surprise, Kruijswijk in 2016, Dumoulin in 2017, Yates in 2018 and now Carapaz this year. Of course surprises of various degrees but still, considering the favorites going into grand tours are usually rather clear this is quite a series of surprises. I have to check it but I'd be surprised if any of those guys got more than 10, maybe even 5% of the votes in the pre race poll.

 

[JosephK]

I agree that an outright win by Carapaz in this year's Giro would be a surprise, but maybe not as much of a surprise as some of the other GT performances by first-time winners (or prospective winners) in this decade. As has already been mentioned, who saw Kruijswijk's 2016 performance coming? Without the proper doll-selection by Nibs, Crushweak had that Giro won . . . in even more dominating fashion than Carapaz (so far). Carapaz was performing at a very high level last year, not only placing top-five but winning a stage. He's moved up a bit this year, but it's not a tremendous leap in performance. Not like Froome's runner-up performance in the 2011 Vuelta, for instance. Froome was also 26 when that happened, but he really came out of nowhere for that performance and was on the verge of being traded/cut by his team earlier in the year. In fact, Froome was not originally scheduled to race in the Vuelta at all, but he got added at the last minute after a teammate who was scheduled to support Bradley Wiggins had to drop out. Froome placing 2nd in the 2011 Vuelta would be like Sepp Kuss placing 2nd in this year's Giro for Jumbo.

If someone watched Geraint Thomas's racing outcomes in 2017, who would have guessed that he would dominate the 2018 TDF while in his 30's? One could even say that Roglic's own 2018 TDF performance (top-five and a stage win) was about as big a surprise as Carapaz's 2019 Giro performance. All just my own 2 cents' worth . . . and with encroaching early-onset dementia, I am liable to change my mind (what's left of it) at any moment.

 

[Escarabajo]

I have to agree with what JosephK said. Carapaz would be a surprise but not as close to what GT did last year. Froome's 2011 performance being one of the biggest one along with GT's.

 

[DanielSong39]

Carapaz was a 30-1 shot at the start of the race, not bad considering Landa was the protected rider for Movistar (who isn't out of it either). He hasn't won yet so let's revisit this topic in a week.

Thomas was a surprise in last year's Tour but only because we were all expecting him to brake for Froome at some point during the race. Fortunately Dumoulin forced Sky's hand and allowed the strongest rider to win the race.

 

[armchairclimber]

Carapaz winning would only have been a surprise to me on the grounds that he was clearly meant to be there as Landa's number 2. On merit though, he had every chance, based upon last year. I named my velogames team after him.

 

[Red Rick]

Yeah nah Thomas's highest GC in a GT was 15th before the 2018 Tour while he was 32 years old.

Literally the only reason Carapaz is a bigger surprise than Thomas is Carapaz doesn't ride for Sky/Ineos

 

[armchairclimber]

Re:

Yeah nah Thomas's highest GC in a GT was 15th before the 2018 Tour while he was 32 years old.

Literally the only reason Carapaz is a bigger surprise than Thomas is Carapaz doesn't ride for Sky/Ineos

Although Thomas had been largely a dom up to then hadn't he?

 

[luckyboy]

No Dumoulin, no Froome, hillier TTs instead of the flat 44km he lost 3:00-3:30 to those guys on last year.

It's something of a surprise but maybe it shouldn't be that much. He is maybe just not established as a contender, having only raced 3 GTs before now.