Richie Porte Discussion Thread.

[SHAD0W93]

You forgot DNF and DNS.

 

[silvergrenade]

Re:

C'mon guys! Swiss is just another Willunga Hill one week race. We all know that he can sprint up one hill for a few minutes

... but we all also know that the little midget will crack sooner than later and will be out of contention by the 3rd week. Which may be a good thing as he may be targeting stages instead.

C'mon guys, TdF is not a Willunga Hill.

Jancouver's odds for TLMRP TdF.

1st - 0%
2nd - 0.5%
3rd - 1%
4-5th - 3.5%
6-9th - 5%
10+ 90%

Its redemption time for RP.
He'll at least podium. He's a candidate for the win.

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

C'mon guys! Swiss is just another Willunga Hill one week race. We all know that he can sprint up one hill for a few minutes

... but we all also know that the little midget will crack sooner than later and will be out of contention by the 3rd week. Which may be a good thing as he may be targeting stages instead.

C'mon guys, TdF is not a Willunga Hill.

Jancouver's odds for TLMRP TdF.

1st - 0%
2nd - 0.5%
3rd - 1%
4-5th - 3.5%
6-9th - 5%
10+ 90%

No way he finishes past 10th place but first he has to finish..........

 

[Koronin]

Re:

C'mon guys! Swiss is just another Willunga Hill one week race. We all know that he can sprint up one hill for a few minutes

... but we all also know that the little midget will crack sooner than later and will be out of contention by the 3rd week. Which may be a good thing as he may be targeting stages instead.

C'mon guys, TdF is not a Willunga Hill.

Jancouver's odds for TLMRP TdF.

1st - 0%
2nd - 0.5%
3rd - 1%
4-5th - 3.5%
6-9th - 5%
10+ 90%

Is that 90% for 10+ including a DNF?

 

[Jancouver]

Re:

You forgot DNF and DNS.

For me the DNF/DNS is the same as finishing outside the Top 10.

So yeah, 90% chance he will “deliver” another traditional performance and will not make the Top 10

 

[dacooley]

Re: Re:

You forgot DNF and DNS.

For me the DNF/DNS is the same as finishing outside the Top 10.

So yeah, 90% chance he will “deliver” another traditional performance and will not make the Top 10

wow, you finally have some mercy on him. a few years ago you assured porte would never ever top 10 a gt.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Re: Re:

You forgot DNF and DNS.

For me the DNF/DNS is the same as finishing outside the Top 10.

So yeah, 90% chance he will “deliver” another traditional performance and will not make the Top 10

wow, you finally have some mercy on him. a few years ago you assured porte would never ever top 10 a gt.

To be fair I never thought he would again after the Giro, though my predictions are usually very terrible and wrong.

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

You forgot DNF and DNS.

For me the DNF/DNS is the same as finishing outside the Top 10.

So yeah, 90% chance he will “deliver” another traditional performance and will not make the Top 10

wow, you finally have some mercy on him. a few years ago you assured porte would never ever top 10 a gt.

To be fair I never thought he would again after the Giro, though my predictions are usually very terrible and wrong.

You win the Yellow Jersey for "Most Human On A Single Forum Thread 2018 !" A pleasing antidote to this notoriously biased and opinionated Forum............

 

[SHAD0W93]

Re: Re:

You forgot DNF and DNS.

For me the DNF/DNS is the same as finishing outside the Top 10.

So yeah, 90% chance he will “deliver” another traditional performance and will not make the Top 10

wow, you finally have some mercy on him. a few years ago you assured porte would never ever top 10 a gt.

To be fair I never thought he would again after the Giro, though my predictions are usually very terrible and wrong.

You win the Yellow Jersey for "Most Human On A Single Forum Thread 2018 !" A pleasing antidote to this notoriously biased and opinionated Forum............

I just roll with the punches and feel everyone is entitled to their opinion. There are people I don't like that other people adore and vice versa. Also why I usually just read what people write and not comment because I don't have much to bring to the table that someone else hasn't written 10x better than I could unless it is something someone missed.

My predictions are terrible though and I am almost never right but I digress.

 

[Cookster15]

Re:

C'mon guys! Swiss is just another Willunga Hill one week race. We all know that he can sprint up one hill for a few minutes

... but we all also know that the little midget will crack sooner than later and will be out of contention by the 3rd week. Which may be a good thing as he may be targeting stages instead.

C'mon guys, TdF is not a Willunga Hill.

Jancouver's odds for TLMRP TdF.

1st - 0%
2nd - 0.5%
3rd - 1%
4-5th - 3.5%
6-9th - 5%
10+ 90%

Reckon if he finishes he will be on the podium.

 

[HelloDolly]

Porte looks good but I am not sure his team is strong enough

Needs soemone on the cobbles (GVA) and on the mid mountains and the high mountains....and of course to help him chase back on

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

Porte looks good but I am not sure his team is strong enough

Needs soemone on the cobbles (GVA) and on the mid mountains and the high mountains....and of course to help him chase back on

Little guys and cobbles are not a good match. It's the stage that worries me the most for Porte and I am sure others like Quintana have some concerns as well. Hopefully TJVG can last longer on the climbs this year but I have more faith in Caruso but Tejay has done some good work so far in the TDS on a much easier route of course. GVA is going to be very important for Porte in a team not noted for climbing strength but on the early slopes and easier climbs not to mention the cobbles. I am confident GVA will do his job well.

 

[Cookster15]

Re: Re:

Porte looks good but I am not sure his team is strong enough

Needs soemone on the cobbles (GVA) and on the mid mountains and the high mountains....and of course to help him chase back on

Little guys and cobbles are not a good match. It's the stage that worries me the most for Porte and I am sure others like Quintana have some concerns as well. Hopefully TJVG can last longer on the climbs this year but I have more faith in Caruso but Tejay has done some good work so far in the TDS on a much easier route of course. GVA is going to be very important for Porte in a team not noted for climbing strength but on the early slopes and easier climbs not to mention the cobbles. I am confident GVA will do his job well.

Not "little" but "light". I agree with most of this except according to Wiki Porte weighs 62Kg. By comparison that is the same as the weight quoted for Contador. I think weight not height determines how you handle cobbles? Having guys like GVA around should be a big help.

Plus as we know from 2011, having climbing domestiques isn't everything. First you have to be delivered fresh and safe to the bottom of the cols and climbing domestiques are of limited use then.
Also Quintana is lighter than Porte and he doesn't have anyone at Movistar to compare with GVA in support

For any possibility of a podium, assuming his TT is competitive, Porte will just need to hold the wheels of the Sky train then be strong enough to go when the heads of state attack. The best tactic may be to mark Froome's wheel (unless he falters), let anyone else go, then that forces Sky to do the work. Yes risky but I don't see what other choice he has.

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

Porte looks good but I am not sure his team is strong enough

Needs soemone on the cobbles (GVA) and on the mid mountains and the high mountains....and of course to help him chase back on

Little guys and cobbles are not a good match. It's the stage that worries me the most for Porte and I am sure others like Quintana have some concerns as well. Hopefully TJVG can last longer on the climbs this year but I have more faith in Caruso but Tejay has done some good work so far in the TDS on a much easier route of course. GVA is going to be very important for Porte in a team not noted for climbing strength but on the early slopes and easier climbs not to mention the cobbles. I am confident GVA will do his job well.

Not "little" but "light". I agree with most of this except according to Wiki Porte weighs 62Kg. By comparison that is the same as the weight quoted for Contador. I think weight not height determines how you handle cobbles? Having guys like GVA around should be a big help.

Plus as we know from 2011, having climbing domestiques isn't everything. First you have to be delivered fresh and safe to the bottom of the cols and climbing domestiques are of limited use then.
Also Quintana is lighter than Porte and he doesn't have anyone at Movistar to compare with GVA in support

For any possibility of a podium, assuming his TT is competitive, Porte will just need to hold the wheels of the Sky train then be strong enough to go when the heads of state attack. The best tactic may be to mark Froome's wheel (unless he falters), let anyone else go, then that forces Sky to do the work. Yes risky but I don't see what other choice he has.

Sky would be expected to be in yellow after the TTT but BMC may not be far off which works well for Porte. He can avoid the stress of being in yellow early in the race as can the team. BMC shouldn't have to work too hard before the first rest day but unusually it's nine stages before the first rest day this year.

 

[HelloDolly]

BMC willeb in yellow...or at least trying to be after the TTT...Its their speciality

Any chance Dennis is riding the Tour....he is strong and coul shelter Richie if anything happens to GVA

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

BMC willeb in yellow...or at least trying to be after the TTT...Its their speciality

Any chance Dennis is riding the Tour....he is strong and coul shelter Richie if anything happens to GVA

I think Dennis is riding the Tour which means BMC will push Sky in the TTT but after a hard Giro it might be too much for him. He will be there mainly for the first week. His climbing isn't good enough to matter much for Porte.

 

[HelloDolly]

Re: Re:

BMC willeb in yellow...or at least trying to be after the TTT...Its their speciality

Any chance Dennis is riding the Tour....he is strong and coul shelter Richie if anything happens to GVA

I think Dennis is riding the Tour which means BMC will push Sky in the TTT but after a hard Giro it might be too much for him. He will be there mainly for the first week. His climbing isn't good enough to matter much for Porte.

Not worth brining Dennis for one week ?? Also de Marchi will be tired
So that just leaves Caruso & Van Garderen for MTNs...I do think you need a team mate in case of a mechanical etc

Are they bringing Tuens ?
Roche is not riding the Tour ...not top in MNTs but good allrounder and strong....but had blowout in Giro so maybe there is that

 

[The_Beach]

Re: Re:

BMC willeb in yellow...or at least trying to be after the TTT...Its their speciality

Any chance Dennis is riding the Tour....he is strong and coul shelter Richie if anything happens to GVA

I think Dennis is riding the Tour which means BMC will push Sky in the TTT but after a hard Giro it might be too much for him. He will be there mainly for the first week. His climbing isn't good enough to matter much for Porte.

Not worth brining Dennis for one week ?? Also de Marchi will be tired
So that just leaves Caruso & Van Garderen for MTNs...I do think you need a team mate in case of a mechanical etc

Are they bringing Tuens ?
Roche is not riding the Tour ...not top in MNTs but good allrounder and strong....but had blowout in Giro so maybe there is that

Think the team will be Porte, van Garderen, van Avermaet, Schär, Küng, Dennis, Caruso and Gerrans. Don't think Porte will lose as much time as people expect him to on the cobbles - he was one of the better GC riders in
'14, and he will probably win time on everybody in the TTT. His problem though will be in the mountains, Tejay has been TT'ing really well this year, but his climbing has been bad lately. In a group of thirty riders Caruso will be his only man, while Sky and Movistar will have at least three riders each.

Edit; And he is so vulnerable downhill, as we saw last year.

 

[Son of Amsterhammer]

The two main obstacles to Richie winning the tour are his bike handling and Froome. Nothing he can do about Froome, but I do hope he's been working on descending leading up to this season.

 

[HelloDolly]

He has been working on descending as seen when he caught (almost) Roglic and Bernal on the descent in Romandie ...when they dropped him on the uphill

Still think BMC team too weak to win a GT but Porte can podium if he has no mishaps and follows wheels patiently

 

[Jancouver]

Re:

The two main obstacles to Richie winning the tour are his bike handling and Froome. Nothing he can do about Froome, but I do hope he's been working on descending leading up to this season.

OMG I'm not sure if you are being serious or just trolling ...

Froome and his bike handling are the last things TLMRP has to worry about.

Jesus, this thread is getting out of control with all the Porte & Cobbles nonsense. It's getting worse than before the TdU which I can understand but all this is just a pure BS.

Do you guys even realize who we are talking about? This little guy is 34 years old and only made the TdF top 10 once in his career!

Just out of respect to all other pro cyclists, please do not associate this name with TdF podium.

 

[Red Rick]

If anything Froome has to worry about Portes bike handling

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

If anything Froome has to worry about Portes bike handling

Maybe Froome already has enough on his hands with the bike handling of Thomas..........

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

BMC willeb in yellow...or at least trying to be after the TTT...Its their speciality

Any chance Dennis is riding the Tour....he is strong and coul shelter Richie if anything happens to GVA

I think Dennis is riding the Tour which means BMC will push Sky in the TTT but after a hard Giro it might be too much for him. He will be there mainly for the first week. His climbing isn't good enough to matter much for Porte.

Not worth brining Dennis for one week ?? Also de Marchi will be tired
So that just leaves Caruso & Van Garderen for MTNs...I do think you need a team mate in case of a mechanical etc

Are they bringing Tuens ?
Roche is not riding the Tour ...not top in MNTs but good allrounder and strong....but had blowout in Giro so maybe there is that

Roche might be getting close to retirement but he has always been a hard rider to read. Mostly when I expected him to do well he didn't. Really not sure what Gerrans can offer either if he starts. I expect it won't be much but I hope I'm wrong. Plenty of experience. Hope he has decent legs, like GVA his climbing can be good as a support rider. if Dennis goes it's obviously for the TTT mainly and the first nine stages which is where Porte can struggle. He's worth the selection just for that. Schar, GVA, Caruso and others will be more important to Porte over the duration of the race. BMC just don't have the talent that other teams have over all terrain.

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

BMC willeb in yellow...or at least trying to be after the TTT...Its their speciality

Any chance Dennis is riding the Tour....he is strong and coul shelter Richie if anything happens to GVA

I think Dennis is riding the Tour which means BMC will push Sky in the TTT but after a hard Giro it might be too much for him. He will be there mainly for the first week. His climbing isn't good enough to matter much for Porte.

Not worth brining Dennis for one week ?? Also de Marchi will be tired
So that just leaves Caruso & Van Garderen for MTNs...I do think you need a team mate in case of a mechanical etc

Are they bringing Tuens ?
Roche is not riding the Tour ...not top in MNTs but good allrounder and strong....but had blowout in Giro so maybe there is that

Roche might be getting close to retirement but he has always been a hard rider to read. Mostly when I expected him to do well he didn't. Really not sure what Gerrans can offer either if he starts. I expect it won't be much but I hope I'm wrong. Plenty of experience. Hope he has decent legs, like GVA his climbing can be good as a support rider. if Dennis goes it's obviously for the TTT mainly and the first nine stages which is where Porte can struggle. He's worth the selection just for that. Schar, GVA, Caruso and others will be more important to Porte over the duration of the race. BMC just don't have the talent that other teams have over all terrain.

If they can figure out how to get TVG's head on straight he will be a huge help in the mountains, but the question is can they keep him mentally there. He'll also be a huge help for the TTT.