Its redemption time for RP.Jancouver said:C'mon guys! Swiss is just another Willunga Hill one week race. We all know that he can sprint up one hill for a few minutes
... but we all also know that the little midget will crack sooner than later and will be out of contention by the 3rd week. Which may be a good thing as he may be targeting stages instead.
C'mon guys, TdF is not a Willunga Hill.
Jancouver's odds for TLMRP TdF.
1st - 0%
2nd - 0.5%
3rd - 1%
4-5th - 3.5%
6-9th - 5%
10+ 90%
Jancouver said:C'mon guys! Swiss is just another Willunga Hill one week race. We all know that he can sprint up one hill for a few minutes
... but we all also know that the little midget will crack sooner than later and will be out of contention by the 3rd week. Which may be a good thing as he may be targeting stages instead.
C'mon guys, TdF is not a Willunga Hill.
Jancouver's odds for TLMRP TdF.
1st - 0%
2nd - 0.5%
3rd - 1%
4-5th - 3.5%
6-9th - 5%
10+ 90%
Jancouver said:C'mon guys! Swiss is just another Willunga Hill one week race. We all know that he can sprint up one hill for a few minutes
... but we all also know that the little midget will crack sooner than later and will be out of contention by the 3rd week. Which may be a good thing as he may be targeting stages instead.
C'mon guys, TdF is not a Willunga Hill.
Jancouver's odds for TLMRP TdF.
1st - 0%
2nd - 0.5%
3rd - 1%
4-5th - 3.5%
6-9th - 5%
10+ 90%
SHAD0W93 said:You forgot DNF and DNS.
wow, you finally have some mercy on him. a few years ago you assured porte would never ever top 10 a gt.Jancouver said:SHAD0W93 said:You forgot DNF and DNS.
For me the DNF/DNS is the same as finishing outside the Top 10.
So yeah, 90% chance he will “deliver” another traditional performance and will not make the Top 10
dacooley said:wow, you finally have some mercy on him. a few years ago you assured porte would never ever top 10 a gt.Jancouver said:SHAD0W93 said:You forgot DNF and DNS.
For me the DNF/DNS is the same as finishing outside the Top 10.
So yeah, 90% chance he will “deliver” another traditional performance and will not make the Top 10
SHAD0W93 said:dacooley said:wow, you finally have some mercy on him. a few years ago you assured porte would never ever top 10 a gt.Jancouver said:SHAD0W93 said:You forgot DNF and DNS.
For me the DNF/DNS is the same as finishing outside the Top 10.
So yeah, 90% chance he will “deliver” another traditional performance and will not make the Top 10
To be fair I never thought he would again after the Giro, though my predictions are usually very terrible and wrong.
movingtarget said:SHAD0W93 said:dacooley said:wow, you finally have some mercy on him. a few years ago you assured porte would never ever top 10 a gt.Jancouver said:SHAD0W93 said:You forgot DNF and DNS.
For me the DNF/DNS is the same as finishing outside the Top 10.
So yeah, 90% chance he will “deliver” another traditional performance and will not make the Top 10
To be fair I never thought he would again after the Giro, though my predictions are usually very terrible and wrong.
You win the Yellow Jersey for "Most Human On A Single Forum Thread 2018 !" A pleasing antidote to this notoriously biased and opinionated Forum............
Jancouver said:C'mon guys! Swiss is just another Willunga Hill one week race. We all know that he can sprint up one hill for a few minutes
... but we all also know that the little midget will crack sooner than later and will be out of contention by the 3rd week. Which may be a good thing as he may be targeting stages instead.
C'mon guys, TdF is not a Willunga Hill.
Jancouver's odds for TLMRP TdF.
1st - 0%
2nd - 0.5%
3rd - 1%
4-5th - 3.5%
6-9th - 5%
10+ 90%
HelloDolly said:Porte looks good but I am not sure his team is strong enough
Needs soemone on the cobbles (GVA) and on the mid mountains and the high mountains....and of course to help him chase back on
movingtarget said:HelloDolly said:Porte looks good but I am not sure his team is strong enough
Needs soemone on the cobbles (GVA) and on the mid mountains and the high mountains....and of course to help him chase back on
Little guys and cobbles are not a good match. It's the stage that worries me the most for Porte and I am sure others like Quintana have some concerns as well. Hopefully TJVG can last longer on the climbs this year but I have more faith in Caruso but Tejay has done some good work so far in the TDS on a much easier route of course. GVA is going to be very important for Porte in a team not noted for climbing strength but on the early slopes and easier climbs not to mention the cobbles. I am confident GVA will do his job well.
Cookster15 said:movingtarget said:HelloDolly said:Porte looks good but I am not sure his team is strong enough
Needs soemone on the cobbles (GVA) and on the mid mountains and the high mountains....and of course to help him chase back on
Little guys and cobbles are not a good match. It's the stage that worries me the most for Porte and I am sure others like Quintana have some concerns as well. Hopefully TJVG can last longer on the climbs this year but I have more faith in Caruso but Tejay has done some good work so far in the TDS on a much easier route of course. GVA is going to be very important for Porte in a team not noted for climbing strength but on the early slopes and easier climbs not to mention the cobbles. I am confident GVA will do his job well.
Not "little" but "light". I agree with most of this except according to Wiki Porte weighs 62Kg. By comparison that is the same as the weight quoted for Contador. I think weight not height determines how you handle cobbles? Having guys like GVA around should be a big help.
Plus as we know from 2011, having climbing domestiques isn't everything. First you have to be delivered fresh and safe to the bottom of the cols and climbing domestiques are of limited use then.
Also Quintana is lighter than Porte and he doesn't have anyone at Movistar to compare with GVA in support
For any possibility of a podium, assuming his TT is competitive, Porte will just need to hold the wheels of the Sky train then be strong enough to go when the heads of state attack. The best tactic may be to mark Froome's wheel (unless he falters), let anyone else go, then that forces Sky to do the work. Yes risky but I don't see what other choice he has.
HelloDolly said:BMC willeb in yellow...or at least trying to be after the TTT...Its their speciality
Any chance Dennis is riding the Tour....he is strong and coul shelter Richie if anything happens to GVA
movingtarget said:HelloDolly said:BMC willeb in yellow...or at least trying to be after the TTT...Its their speciality
Any chance Dennis is riding the Tour....he is strong and coul shelter Richie if anything happens to GVA
I think Dennis is riding the Tour which means BMC will push Sky in the TTT but after a hard Giro it might be too much for him. He will be there mainly for the first week. His climbing isn't good enough to matter much for Porte.
Think the team will be Porte, van Garderen, van Avermaet, Schär, Küng, Dennis, Caruso and Gerrans. Don't think Porte will lose as much time as people expect him to on the cobbles - he was one of the better GC riders inHelloDolly said:movingtarget said:HelloDolly said:BMC willeb in yellow...or at least trying to be after the TTT...Its their speciality
Any chance Dennis is riding the Tour....he is strong and coul shelter Richie if anything happens to GVA
I think Dennis is riding the Tour which means BMC will push Sky in the TTT but after a hard Giro it might be too much for him. He will be there mainly for the first week. His climbing isn't good enough to matter much for Porte.
Not worth brining Dennis for one week ?? Also de Marchi will be tired
So that just leaves Caruso & Van Garderen for MTNs...I do think you need a team mate in case of a mechanical etc
Are they bringing Tuens ?
Roche is not riding the Tour ...not top in MNTs but good allrounder and strong....but had blowout in Giro so maybe there is that
Son of Amsterhammer said:The two main obstacles to Richie winning the tour are his bike handling and Froome. Nothing he can do about Froome, but I do hope he's been working on descending leading up to this season.
Red Rick said:If anything Froome has to worry about Portes bike handling
HelloDolly said:movingtarget said:HelloDolly said:BMC willeb in yellow...or at least trying to be after the TTT...Its their speciality
Any chance Dennis is riding the Tour....he is strong and coul shelter Richie if anything happens to GVA
I think Dennis is riding the Tour which means BMC will push Sky in the TTT but after a hard Giro it might be too much for him. He will be there mainly for the first week. His climbing isn't good enough to matter much for Porte.
Not worth brining Dennis for one week ?? Also de Marchi will be tired
So that just leaves Caruso & Van Garderen for MTNs...I do think you need a team mate in case of a mechanical etc
Are they bringing Tuens ?
Roche is not riding the Tour ...not top in MNTs but good allrounder and strong....but had blowout in Giro so maybe there is that
movingtarget said:HelloDolly said:movingtarget said:HelloDolly said:BMC willeb in yellow...or at least trying to be after the TTT...Its their speciality
Any chance Dennis is riding the Tour....he is strong and coul shelter Richie if anything happens to GVA
I think Dennis is riding the Tour which means BMC will push Sky in the TTT but after a hard Giro it might be too much for him. He will be there mainly for the first week. His climbing isn't good enough to matter much for Porte.
Not worth brining Dennis for one week ?? Also de Marchi will be tired
So that just leaves Caruso & Van Garderen for MTNs...I do think you need a team mate in case of a mechanical etc
Are they bringing Tuens ?
Roche is not riding the Tour ...not top in MNTs but good allrounder and strong....but had blowout in Giro so maybe there is that
Roche might be getting close to retirement but he has always been a hard rider to read. Mostly when I expected him to do well he didn't. Really not sure what Gerrans can offer either if he starts. I expect it won't be much but I hope I'm wrong. Plenty of experience. Hope he has decent legs, like GVA his climbing can be good as a support rider. if Dennis goes it's obviously for the TTT mainly and the first nine stages which is where Porte can struggle. He's worth the selection just for that. Schar, GVA, Caruso and others will be more important to Porte over the duration of the race. BMC just don't have the talent that other teams have over all terrain.