Imagine being 39th on an all-time list when you just turned 24
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Have argued before about modern day sprinters being over-rewarded by these lists and just looking at some stats, it is crazy.
Between 08-17 TDF, Cavendish, Kittel and Greipel alone won 57 stages.
Between 83-92, there was a Grand total of 33 sprints won in actual sprints. I picked 92 as the cut-off as it was after that the number of sprint stages started to increase with the advent of trains etc.
Cavendish won 20 stages between 08-11.
There was 9 bunch sprints total between 89-92.
Over the last 25 years, recognised sprinters Cipollini, Zabel, McEwen, Hushovd, Cavendish, Kittel, Greipel, Sagan have won more than 10 Tour stages each.
In the previous 25 years, only Freddy Maertens, Jan Raas, Walter Godefroot managed 10 or more.
You can argue Hushovds or Sagans wins were not all bunch sprints, but then that would also eliminate Godefroot and Raas and barely leave Maertens above 10.
When we compare riders over time, it is usually based on the same races, GTs, Classics etc, the number of which have not varied much through the years. However, it is pretty clear that the numbers of sprints stages have increased significantly, skewing their rating. This has little to do with talent and more to do with changes in the type of racing, sprint trains etc. Thus my reasoning why modern sprint stages should be worth less.
Between 08-17 TDF, Cavendish, Kittel and Greipel alone won 57 stages.
Between 83-92, there was a Grand total of 33 sprints won in actual sprints. I picked 92 as the cut-off as it was after that the number of sprint stages started to increase with the advent of trains etc.
Cavendish won 20 stages between 08-11.
There was 9 bunch sprints total between 89-92.
Over the last 25 years, recognised sprinters Cipollini, Zabel, McEwen, Hushovd, Cavendish, Kittel, Greipel, Sagan have won more than 10 Tour stages each.
In the previous 25 years, only Freddy Maertens, Jan Raas, Walter Godefroot managed 10 or more.
You can argue Hushovds or Sagans wins were not all bunch sprints, but then that would also eliminate Godefroot and Raas and barely leave Maertens above 10.
When we compare riders over time, it is usually based on the same races, GTs, Classics etc, the number of which have not varied much through the years. However, it is pretty clear that the numbers of sprints stages have increased significantly, skewing their rating. This has little to do with talent and more to do with changes in the type of racing, sprint trains etc. Thus my reasoning why modern sprint stages should be worth less.
At least the sprint stages have been on the decrease lately.
Also, before, it was just endless meaningless breaks who fought for the wins because the sprint teams apparently didn't give care to win stages.
Beginning to categorise GT stages after profiles would not make much sense to me I must say.
Whilst there was less sprint stages at Le Tour this year, I wouldn't call it a trend just yet. Last year there was still 6/7 sprint stages. Will be interesting to see if the decrease in sprint stages continues, I would love if it did.
It is clear that sprinters have benefited due to sheer volume, but if breakaway stages are meaningless and sprint stages are meaningless then the logical solution is not to include GT stage wins at all. It will not impact the true greats all that much, maybe move them up or down a spot, but outside of that it is still about winning the most important races which is what any all time list should be about and I have pointed this out before.
I think last year was a strange anomaly. But for example, the Giro does not have ten flat stages like in 2004 when Petacchi won nine.
Pogacar really has a chance to be the first rider in ages to be up there with the true all time greats. That does rely on him to return to his TdF winning ways though.
Some sprinters have taken lots of points indeed, but someone who wins a world title, Sanremo and more than fifty GT stages, like Cipollini and Cavendish, has had an impressive career. The difference is that a sprinter relies much more on his teammates than other riders.
If we have to go back to the 80s for the last ATGs then it's time to redefine what ATG means.
That's a fair point, but you still know what I mean. The fact it seems like a realistic option that someone might end up with a palmares looking similar to, say Hinault or Coppi, is simply really mindblowing.
Very nice list.
Valverde probably too high and Nibali definately too low.
I'd expect Pogacar to end up somewhere betwoon Moser and Hinault
Valverde probably too high and Nibali definately too low.
I'd expect Pogacar to end up somewhere betwoon Moser and Hinault
Yeah. You can simplify tremendously by splitting between GTs vs classics.
I think the record of 11 GTs isn't nearly as sharp as 19 monuments for example.
After last year's Tour it looked like Pog might have a shot at the GT record but his reluctance to race 2 GTs per season and the loss to Vingegaard changed the situation.
However, if he manages to win let's say 7 GTs (like Froome/Contador) and 7 monuments (like Cancellara/Boonen) then he's the greatest of the last few decades and probably the best (in terms of level) of all time. Remco looks like another serious candidate for a great position in the ranking.
by this logic, older (medium/high) mountain stages should be worth less since there must have been more of them
Remco likely moves into the top 50 after next year.
This is a really good list. Only qualms are GP nations being too high and Romandie and Catalyuna being too low
This is a really good list. Only qualms are GP nations being too high and Romandie and Catalyuna being too low
I actually think the GT record will be broken within the next two decades. Hell, Contador might have broken it without his positive test in 2010, and he was only the 2nd most dominant gc rider of his own generation. Armstrong also almost certainly could have broken it if he had cared one bit about anything outside the Tour and he became a gc rider when he was like 30.
That being said, after this season I don't think Pogacar will be the one to break it and I think he is more likely to get 2nd all time in monument wins than to break the GT win record.
This is actually so much harder to predict in cycling than pretty much any other sport IMO.
The GT record will be saved by the fact that no rider targets it, which in turn is because the GTs aren't seen as equals, and by the fact that unlike in tennis you can't target all GTs in a year. Monument record is similarly saved simply by the fact you can't dominate over 2 monuments a year anymore.
Also I really wonder who was more dominant in that era of cycling that Contador went 6 Grand Tours in a row without losing a single one.
Obviously Froome spent those 6 years holding onto motos but I still considered him to be from the same generation of cyclists and I do think that Froom was a more dominant gt rider than Contador.
Again you may question how I phrased things, but I stand by my point.
IMO dominance over more than a single season or 2 is going to be harder and harder as more riders from non traditional cycling countries join the peloton. And as power-based scouting improves.
Not really as it wasn't the type of stages that changed, it was that more flat stages were won by breakaways/late attacks. Teams simply expended less effort into chasing down breaks and were way less organised in controlling things than modern sprint trains. The arrival of Cipos Red train was a big element in this.
For example, what Laporte pulled off for his stage win this year with the late, late attack has been pretty rare, but it used to be a common feature in Le Tour, I remembers guys like Jelle Nijdam, Etienne De Wilde, Thierry Marie and others mugging the sprinters with last km attacks multiple times. Then late attacks became rare as teams had so much control up until about 400m to go.
The style of racing has changed and provided sprinters with way more possibilities to win, that change in style has little to do with the sprinters themselves and more about the control teams exert on races. However it is the sprinter who wins and gets the credit. How can a McEwen or Kittel be on a best off list when they never won a single major race between them? Because they got how any chances to win sprint stages.
I have no problem removing GT stages from the qualifying lists as it won't impact much on the true greats of the sport, because they usually have won enough major races to be still be up there as it should be. It would eliminate those who are there purely on quantity of win off the back of their teams.
I've just made the last update of the season to my all-time ranking (top 300) on https://www.kingoftheechelon.com/all-time-pro-cycling-ranking.
The main takeaways are:
1 POGACAR, Tadej 914pts
2 EVENEPOEL, Remco 765pts
3 VINGEGAARD, Jonas 732pts
4 VAN AERT, Wout 693pts
5 HINDLEY, Jai 335pts
6 MAS, Enric 331pts
7 VLASOV, Aleksandr 325pts
8 LAPORTE, Christophe 306pts
9 THOMAS, Geraint 302pts
10 ROGLIC, Primoz 300pts
11 CARAPAZ, Richard 288pts
12 HIGUITA, Sergio 246pts
13 VAN BAARLE, Dylan 246pts
14 VAN DER POEL, Mathieu 245pts
15 LANDA, Mikel 242pts
16 MARTINEZ, Daniel Felipe 210pts
17 DEMARE, Arnaud 205pts
18 MOHORIC, Matej 198pts
19 MATTHEWS, Michael 190pts
20 YATES, Simon 166pts
21 GIRMAY, Biniam 163pts
22 KUNG, Stefan 152pts
23 PHILIPSEN, Jasper 140pts
24 COSNEFROY, Benoit 139pts
25 HERMANS, Quinten 136pts
The main takeaways are:
- Roglic enters the Top-50 (°43)
- Pogacar (°65), Van Aert (°92) and Thomas (°97) enter the Top-100
- Carapaz (°168) and Matthews (°174) enter the Top-200
- Vingegaard (°234), Evenepoel (°250) and Van der Poel (°299) enter the Top-300
1 POGACAR, Tadej 914pts
2 EVENEPOEL, Remco 765pts
3 VINGEGAARD, Jonas 732pts
4 VAN AERT, Wout 693pts
5 HINDLEY, Jai 335pts
6 MAS, Enric 331pts
7 VLASOV, Aleksandr 325pts
8 LAPORTE, Christophe 306pts
9 THOMAS, Geraint 302pts
10 ROGLIC, Primoz 300pts
11 CARAPAZ, Richard 288pts
12 HIGUITA, Sergio 246pts
13 VAN BAARLE, Dylan 246pts
14 VAN DER POEL, Mathieu 245pts
15 LANDA, Mikel 242pts
16 MARTINEZ, Daniel Felipe 210pts
17 DEMARE, Arnaud 205pts
18 MOHORIC, Matej 198pts
19 MATTHEWS, Michael 190pts
20 YATES, Simon 166pts
21 GIRMAY, Biniam 163pts
22 KUNG, Stefan 152pts
23 PHILIPSEN, Jasper 140pts
24 COSNEFROY, Benoit 139pts
25 HERMANS, Quinten 136pts
But that's it, would Cipo/Cav have World Titles without teams controlling things to set up a sprint finish specifically? I can think of only a few times when the Super favourite for a World Title actually won, Cipo/Cav being the most obvious. Again, I don't think there was a bunch sprint at a World Championship from when Maertens won until Cipo won in 02, but there has been a few since then, usually on a course that is derided as being poor.
Too much of reliance on teams for sprinters to be on a best off list. Just as a comparison, Lucien Van Impe and Lucho Herrera are considered 2 of the greatest climbers of all time. Where are they on this list in comparison to the best sprinters?
If sprinting were easy, everyone would do it.
Why should the best of list be focused on climbers alone? That reeks of personal preference.
Who said the list should be just climbers? It is a list of the best cyclists and all I have done is point out that sprinters are always over-rated on theses lists and why, backed up by statistics. I asked why some of the best sprinters are so far ahead of the best climbers and the answer is simple, they get way more chances to win, primarily thanks to their teams yet these rankings are individually ranked.
Or is means we havn't had a true ATG in a long time. It happens.
Happened in golf in the 1980s. Hockey is going through a similar period since Hasek retired (it may be coming out of it now). We just had several ATGs in close proximity from the 60-80s. We have just reverted to the mean since then
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