Rujano can win this Giro, believes Savio

[Libertine Seguros]

Sella will attack at the base of the climb, but crack and be inevitably brought back, just like every Giro MTF before 2008.

either that or he'll be off the front beforehand, that's another habit of his.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Well, the Giro of 2008. But that one was a bit of a joke. Still don't understand how Contador managed to win that one(yeah I know bc of time trials, rhetorical)

I think the Giro dell Cera is a better name for what we saw there.

Yeah, but I suspect we'll see more of the same this year. The spring season has been extraordinary in terms of suspect performances by a multitude of riders. IMO. I'd better stop... wrong sub forum.

But, yes, Contador was outclimbed (abeit barely) by riders such as Pozzovivo and such. Not to mention Sella. Both seem to be in decent shape right now. Anton has dropped Contador before, but not by much, and not in a very tough stage. But who knows...

Wishful thinking, I know.

 

[Barrus]

Folks, lets not keep on talking about doping in here. Just leave that for the clinic

 

[jens_attacks]

sella was always a good rider before 2008 that's why tifosi loved him and still do.he finished 11th in giro 2007 too.that's not bad.i think he can finish in the top ten overall if rujano doesn't make a comeback and savio choose him.

 

[hrotha]

Average speed over +20 days is normalized, the fluctuation of attacks probably becomes irrelevant over so many stages. The average speed of a single stage doesn't mean anything, but trends do.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Average speed over +20 days is normalized, the fluctuation of attacks probably becomes irrelevant over so many stages. The average speed of a single stage doesn't mean anything, but trends do.

You're essentially assuming there is no correlation between the 'random' error in speed in days within the same tour.

However, the weather element will clearly be correlated, and the quantity of attacks at the sharp end is also likely to be, given the same riders are in the 21 stages in a given tour, but not in stages from differenti tours, so I'm really not sure you can claim they will cancel out as factors.

 

[hrotha]

You're essentially assuming there is no correlation between the 'random' error in speed in days within the same tour.

However, the weather element will clearly be correlated, and the quantity of attacks at the sharp end is also likely to be, given the same riders are in the 21 stages in a given tour, but not in stages from differenti tours, so I'm really not sure you can claim they will cancel out as factors.

I'm not claiming such a thing. I'm saying when trends are noticeable over several years, they're probably significant. The more stages/tours you include in your analysis, the less of an impact those conditions you're talking about will have on the observed trend.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

I'm not claiming such a thing. I'm saying when trends are noticeable over several years, they're probably significant. The more stages/tours you include in your analysis, the less of an impact those conditions you're talking about will have on the observed trend.

You started by saying that using a full set of 21 stages normalises the non aerobic capacity factors (given that what we're discussing is to what extent different tours were clinic ridden) to give a relatively fair judgement.

As to the conclusion, I have no set opinion of which tours were or were not, or were worse, or whatever.

But I really don't think the idea that the factors are "normalised" by taking all 21 stages is true in the slightest, because these non aerobic factors are selg evidently connected within any given 21 stages.

The best forecast of the weather on record is to assume it will repeat the day before, and the level of attacks depends on the riders present - all the same for a given tour, but differing between tours.

Put simply, the bookies would not allow you to take an in tour multiplier bet on these factors, because they are connected, and so they will not equalise by averaging the 21 days.

 

[hrotha]

I don't see any contradiction. 21 stages already normalizes it, since not all stages are ridden the same. Obviously more data enhances the normalization. No, I can't be sure if 21 stages is enough, statistically, to remove the variations you're talking about, but then you're not sure of the opposite either because no one has researched this at all.

 

[Barrus]

Look guys, that debate is still a continuation of the earlier doping debate, I ask you to stop it, or take it to the clinic

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Look guys, that debate is still a continuation of the earlier doping debate, I ask you to stop it, or take it to the clinic

I don't know what you're reading, this is purely statistics.

When the sets you're averaging are connected and correlated, averaging won't remove those biases.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

I don't see any contradiction. 21 stages already normalizes it, since not all stages are ridden the same. Obviously more data enhances the normalization. No, I can't be sure if 21 stages is enough, statistically, to remove the variations you're talking about, but then you're not sure of the opposite either because no one has researched this at all.

My point is that the stages are inherantly connected, and the bias is statistically likely to be the same direction for most of them in a given tour, so averaging will not remove it, but simply consolidate it.

 

[Barrus]

I don't know what you're reading, this is purely statistics.

When the sets you're averaging are connected and correlated, averaging won't remove those biases.

I'm sorry, but the discussion stems from these posts:

Well, the Giro of 2008. But that one was a bit of a joke. Still don't understand how Contador managed to win that one(yeah I know bc of time trials, rhetorical)

I think the Giro dell Cera is a better name for what we saw there.

so how do you know you saw something different in 2002,2004,2006,or in 2010 where the average speed was the 3rd highest in giro history despite one of the most mountainous route in history? i bet this year we'll have even more fun than in 2008.

let's just say that sella will crack alberto on zoncolan now that will kill these forums for ever.vola sella!!!

So, it is a continuation of the debate concerning doping

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

I'm sorry, but the discussion stems from these posts:




So, it is a continuation of the debate concerning doping

Oh well, I have no desire to discuss that rubbish, for the benefit of clinic lurkers, you can't average the temperature of 1000 different days in December to get an average annual temperature, because they all have a linked bias - same applies here.

 

[Angliru]

Um... well... no comment. I'm a huge fan of Sella. I'll withold judgment until after this Giro.

I don't want Contador to lose, but it would be nice if he wasn't the best climber in a GT for a change. I can dream, though, right?

Well according to Andy Schleck (circa Tour de France 2009), he is the best climber in the world, not Contador, so there you have it.

 

[Angliru]

Sella will attack at the base of the climb, but crack and be inevitably brought back, just like every Giro MTF before 2008.

either that or he'll be off the front beforehand, that's another habit of his.

+1
Sella was a 2nd tier climber prior to his 2008 "theatrics", unable to climb with the elite. He won't be riding any of the primary contenders off of his wheel on any of the climbs.

 

[hrotha]

I'm sorry, but the discussion stems from these posts:




So, it is a continuation of the debate concerning doping

Why does it matter? The discussion has moved on, it has nothing to do with the Clinic at this point.

Anyway, that means it is about statistics now, so I'll proceed to shut up because I don't want to make a fool of myself (and I'm not even sure if I have already done so).

 

[The Hitch]

I just saw the Strade Bianchi stage now.

Came on the forum to see how Rujano went.

Im devestated.

Then again, last year everyone lost minutes in the mountains. Nibali 3 on Monte Zoncolan alone. They took back 12 on Arroyo even though admitidly hes no top gc guy. Cuddles lost what, 4 to Basso from stage 7 onwards.

This year the mountains are even bigger badder longer and more frequent.

Im hoping he can at least make 6th or 7th or something. At least beat anton.

The problem is this is his only shot at the season. Androni arent going to get into the Vuelta and Vuelta COlombia is nice but a step too low.

Of course hes not going to win or anything, but no one really thought he was ever going to have a chance anyway.

well. Almost no one

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

+1
Sella was a 2nd tier climber prior to his 2008 "theatrics", unable to climb with the elite. He won't be riding any of the primary contenders off of his wheel on any of the climbs.

You're probably right, but check his CQ ranking. Not quite the same rider as he was in his pre '08 days, it seems.

 

[boomcie]

- Savio: "Rujano can win the Giro."

- Random person: "What?"

- Savio: "Rujano can't win the Giro."

- Random person: "But you first said: "Rujano can win the Giro""

- Savio: "Did I?"

- Random person: "Yes."

- Savio: "Hahaha"

- Random person: "Hahaha"

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

about as funny as getting shot through the head

 

[The Hitch]

lol Ruben and Gerrit Jan really do give the best responses to any hostile posts or criticisms. Just pure "take your criticism and stick it up your ***".

Very entertaining.

One day I got to meet this PCM benelux crowd.

 

[hrotha]

If you ask me, we've earned the right to mercilessly mock Rujano whenever he fails.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

lol Ruben and Gerrit Jan really do give the best responses to any hostile posts or criticisms. Just pure "take your criticism and stick it up your ***".

Very entertaining.

One day I got to meet this PCM benelux crowd.

haha we always meet up during races in reallife like last years tour and giro starts and agr of course, terribly funny when you know dutch we have the best stories

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Rujano came in 7th today. Promising, to say the least.