I think that both of you are playing too much with numbers. Let's assume Phinney doesn't dope. Let's assume that Nairo doesn't dope. Therefore, to meet your numbers, someone must dope 2x more than others to make the numbers match. I nominate Betancur, since he is twice the size of most Colombians now. There are other big guys out there that must be at least 1.5 dopers. Take 10 of those, we get 5 more guys that aren't dopers but statistically stay within your 99% threshold.
We have Phinney
We have Nairo
Arredondo is my next vote since he bonked heavily a few times and almost couldn't make it, had to zigzag, when he won his stage.
Number 4 would be Andy Shleck. By Clinic rules, you are good when you dope, you suck when you don't. Andy Shleck sucks, therefore, he doesn't dope.
Cadel Evans bonked heavily the last 2 Giros. One would argue that you don't have to dope to do good in the Tour down under.
That's 5 guys.
Any more nominations for super-dopers? any more nominations for clean riders?