So what's the new scandal?

[MacRoadie]

Don't be so sure of that...

I deliberately left you out of it, but glad you popped in.

 

[kurtinsc]

The nature of a plea bargain is charges get dropped or reduced in exchange for co-operation.

Dana Stubblefield, NFL defensive MVP did a plea bargain received 2 year probation
Patrick Arnold served time
Tim Mongumery is serving time for check fraud that was originally discovered during the BALCO investigation. Steve Riddick, his former coach, is also serving time
Victor Conte spent time in prison
Mike Anderson, Bond's trainer, spent time in prison.
Jason Grimsley was suspended for 50 games
Justin Gatlin was banned for 8 years
Alvin Harrison was banned for 4 years.

This is only a partial list. There is little value in trying to reduce Novitzy, he has won lots more then he has lost. He is also only one part of the machine, do not forget that the prosecutor named in the case, Doug Miller, is part of an office that has the highest conviction rate in America.

Bans/suspensions really aren't related to the performance of the federal investigation... those come from the sports those atheletes compete in. Grimsley actually COOPERATED with the feds and wore a wire... but got banned for 50 games by MLB and got fired.

Tim Montgomery... I'd never heard that his money laundering/check fraud had anything to do with BALCO. I live near Gaffney (Montgomery's home town) and it was covered pretty well by the news here, and I never heard it mentioned.

I did miss Stubblefield getting 2 years of probation.

What is interesting is that the people that actually cooperated with the investigation got much of the punishment. Trevor Graham actaully called in the tip and provided a sample of the clear, starting the whole case... and he got 1 year of house arrest. Stubblefield cooperated fully... and got 2 years of probation. Montgomery cooperated fully, and got nearly 4 years of jail time. Troy Ellerman (who leaked information to the Yahoo reporters who provided the coverage for most of the Balco stuff) got 30 months in prison. The two reporters were sentenced to 18 months each. Valente (who cooperated) got 3 months probation

For those that fought (or at least fought to refuse to name names)... Tammy Thomas got 6 months house arrest, Marion Jones got 6 months in prison, Conte got 4 months, Anderson got 13 months, Arnold got 3 months. Korcheny got 1-month probation.


Is that a good result?

If something similar happened with this investigation, and some chemists and coaches go down (perhaps even Bruyneel), some lesser rider (like say Barry) and a medium guy (say Hincapie) and Lance gets indicted but it never goes to trial and no conviction ever happens, while all those who talk/help get additional bans from the UCI and jail time/probation... would that be seen as a good result of the investigation here?

 

[Polish]

I've been reading up some lately on the Barry Bonds case... and I'm not really sure Jeff Novitzky is the best man for this investigation if the goal is for Lance to go down.
.
.
.
.
I'm not really sure Novitzky is very good at his job.

It does appear attention hound Novitsky made plenty of mistakes in the Bonds case, but he will probably be much more careful in this next case against Lance. live and learn.

The Lance case could be Novitsky's redemption.
Plenty of people have made their fame and fortune based on being associated with Lance. Walsh and Carmichael....2 out of thousands of people to profit. Lance is World Famous.

Novitsky will get his 15 minutes of Fame,
Lance will get his 15 minutes of Fail.

But it will blow over.
Blow Over in the minds of the General and Global public that is.
BFD.

In the minds of the haters, however, the wind that has been howling for years and years will continue to blow. Blow blow blow.

 

[MacRoadie]

Plenty of people have made their fame and fortune based on being associated with Lance.

Gald to see you finally admit that making money is what it has always really been about.

Blow. Blow blow blow.

Yes, well, you would know all about that.

 

[Polish]

Gald to see you finally admit that making money is what it has always really been about.
.

"Finally admit" that people have been making $$$ from being associated with Lance? I have always said that.

LiveStrong Foundation makes tons of $$ from being associated with Lance.

Lance is a global GNP generator. I have always stated that.

Pool guys, gardeners, lawyers, team mates, bike company employees, coaches, beer companies, RC toy makes, private jet manufacturers, mechanics, PR people, authors, french police investigators - the list of people making money from being associated with Lance is large. really big.

 

[Race Radio]

Bans/suspensions really aren't related to the performance of the federal investigation... those come from the sports those atheletes compete in. Grimsley actually COOPERATED with the feds and wore a wire... but got banned for 50 games by MLB and got fired.

Tim Montgomery... I'd never heard that his money laundering/check fraud had anything to do with BALCO. I live near Gaffney (Montgomery's home town) and it was covered pretty well by the news here, and I never heard it mentioned.

I did miss Stubblefield getting 2 years of probation.

What is interesting is that the people that actually cooperated with the investigation got much of the punishment. Trevor Graham actaully called in the tip and provided a sample of the clear, starting the whole case... and he got 1 year of house arrest. Stubblefield cooperated fully... and got 2 years of probation. Montgomery cooperated fully, and got nearly 4 years of jail time. Troy Ellerman (who leaked information to the Yahoo reporters who provided the coverage for most of the Balco stuff) got 30 months in prison. The two reporters were sentenced to 18 months each. Valente (who cooperated) got 3 months probation

For those that fought (or at least fought to refuse to name names)... Tammy Thomas got 6 months house arrest, Marion Jones got 6 months in prison, Conte got 4 months, Anderson got 13 months, Arnold got 3 months. Korcheny got 1-month probation.


Is that a good result?

If something similar happened with this investigation, and some chemists and coaches go down (perhaps even Bruyneel), some lesser rider (like say Barry) and a medium guy (say Hincapie) and Lance gets indicted but it never goes to trial and no conviction ever happens, while all those who talk/help get additional bans from the UCI and jail time/probation... would that be seen as a good result of the investigation here?

All of the bans, suspensions, plea deals, and jail time were the result of the investigation. You may think that a 8 year ban or losing a job that paid you $9 million a year is no big deal but most rational people would disagree with you.

The fact is the list of people who were sanctioned, jailed, fined, etc in the Balco case is huge. Pretending this is not the case does nothing to help Armstrong get out of this mess.

 

[MacRoadie]

the list of people making money from being associated with Lance is large. really big.

Yep, don't forget AMGEN and the UCI...

 

[Polish]

Yep, don't forget AMGEN and the UCI...

Exactly. There are way too many for me to list.
Barely scratched the surface.

EuroSportTV makes money from Lance. French Tourism. Income taxes, Property Taxes. The list goes on and on. I have always said that.

 

[CycloErgoSum]

Lance is a global GNP generator.

Along with his vulgar displays of power, I imagine this is a major part of his appeal to fanboys and casual observers alike - we are a people in love with mammon.

Is the pursuit and destruction of Lance consistent with the state of global capitalism, a system that mindlessly destroys in order to create?

Lance the tiny, expendable pawn. There's a new narrative for you.

EDIT: It's been noted earlier that the new fanboy defence isn't 'he never doped' but 'he's made a lot of people rich by doping.' What a typically sans virtu Wall Street defence.

 

[Dr. Maserati]

Yep, don't forget AMGEN and the UCI...

And don't forget the blonde ladies of Texas...

 

[buckwheat]

Not really wishful. I don't really care what happens (though I would like it to happen after the Tour so I can see how Lance does).

But all the stuff about how well he did with the Balco investigation led me to do some reading on it. I'm not really sure the investigation went well looking at the results.

40 of the 42 charges were dropped against Anderson, Valente and Conte in a plea bargain that ended their case. They were not required to name any names of their customers.

Tammy Thomas (a cyclist) and Marion Jones were the only Balco atheletes convicted of anything related to BALCO (as far as I know).

A couple of coaches got convicted as well.


I'm not super familiar with how these types of investigations go... and they did end up getting a few people... but out of all the athletes connected with Balco only two have been convicted (and only Jones served jail time). That investigation began in 2003.

Is that good?

Novitzky is a bucket of cold water. A wet blanket.

Of course people aren't going to get all excited about his work.

Don't forget how huge Jones was before Sydney.

She had some of the wind taken out of her sails before Athens so her downfall was somewhat anticlimactic.

Armstrong is many times bigger than Jones ever was and many believe (fanboys, hero worshippers) he can still win.

His downfall is going to be an unprecedented media circus in the sporting arena.

Many times bigger than the shock of Ben Johnson.

 

[ilillillli]

So... Boonen's out with a knee injury. Do we take this at face value or not?

 

[CycloErgoSum]

So... Boonen's out with a knee injury. Do we take this at face value or not?

Of course - his legs were ripped off trying to keep up with rotary-powered Sparkticus.

When the truth comes out, Sparkticus' apologists will say, "Look what a human-machine hybrid can achieve!"

 

[kurtinsc]

Novitzky is a bucket of cold water. A wet blanket.

Of course people aren't going to get all excited about his work.

Don't forget how huge Jones was before Sydney.

She had some of the wind taken out of her sails before Athens so her downfall was somewhat anticlimactic.

Armstrong is many times bigger than Jones ever was and many believe (fanboys, hero worshippers) he can still win.

His downfall is going to be an unprecedented media circus in the sporting arena.

Many times bigger than the shock of Ben Johnson.

If Lance goes down it will be.

I guess I saw Barry Bonds as the main target in the Balco investigation... and it appears he won't even need a trial to get off. Marion Jones was a name... but compared to Barry Bonds, Jason Giambi and Gary Sheffield... not a huge name.

The media circus will hurt Armstrongs legacy if people start going down at all from this (similar to how Bonds legacy was shattered)... but how bad is in doubt. Lance is a jerk... but he's not hated like Bonds was PRIOR to Balco coming out. Even if say... Hincapie, Bruyneel and Leipheimer go to jail from this... I'm not sure Lance wouldn't still be popular enough to win a political election in Texas. Cycling fans will slam him... but lets face it... there aren't many real cycling fans in the US.

For this to really hurt Lance (by "really hurt", I mean tarnish him permanently to eliminate the majority of "fanboys"), either something needs to happen before the Tour... or he needs to be convicted (probably convicted in the US).

 

[Publicus]

If Lance goes down it will be.

I guess I saw Barry Bonds as the main target in the Balco investigation... and it appears he won't even need a trial to get off. Marion Jones was a name... but compared to Barry Bonds, Jason Giambi and Gary Sheffield... not a huge name.

The media circus will hurt Armstrongs legacy if people start going down at all from this (similar to how Bonds legacy was shattered)... but how bad is in doubt. Lance is a jerk... but he's not hated like Bonds was PRIOR to Balco coming out. Even if say... Hincapie, Bruyneel and Leipheimer go to jail from this... I'm not sure Lance wouldn't still be popular enough to win a political election in Texas. Cycling fans will slam him... but lets face it... there aren't many real cycling fans in the US.

For this to really hurt Lance (by "really hurt", I mean tarnish him permanently to eliminate the majority of "fanboys"), either something needs to happen before the Tour... or he needs to be convicted (probably convicted in the US).

I'm going to have to disagree with you on this one (shocked, I know). If people start going down over the Landis allegations, you can promptly stick a fork in Armstrong. The nature of the allegations are such that if he's not convicted, his team was implicated. Politics is a brutal and nasty sport, one I'm not sure Armstrong is up for even in the absence of these allegations. Having someone in his inner circle convicted, would be a death knell for his political aspirations.

That being said, there is a lot that has to happen for anyone to be convicted of anything. Frankly, I can't see Hincapie or Levi going to jail. I can see them turning state's evidence, however.

 

[MacRoadie]

If Lance goes down it will be.

I guess I saw Barry Bonds as the main target in the Balco investigation... and it appears he won't even need a trial to get off. Marion Jones was a name... but compared to Barry Bonds, Jason Giambi and Gary Sheffield... not a huge name.

I think this is the key point of disconnect for a lot of folks. IMHO, we (myself included) tend to be defensive of our sports heroes and tend to assume that the person who's usually the focus of attention adopts that same role in the investigation.

The FDA, ATF, and ICE target illegal drug (prescription, controlled, etc) manufacture, distribution, and sale day in and day out, every day. Usually it's a nameless, faceless person or persons hidden somewhere in a foreign country or inner city and while the end users typically get swept up in the process, they tend to fall between the cracks or retain their anonymity.

When a celebrity becomes involved in one of these cases either directly or through association with someone else, we tend to adopt that celebrity's (usual) lament that "they" were being "targeted", usually unfairly. "Why won't they just leave Barry/Marion/Jason/A-Rod alone?"

In the case of BALCO, while the names are much more salacious than Julio and Miguel from Colombia, the Feds don't really care about end users. Like most (legitimate) law enforcement, the target is the manufacturing and distribution machine.

 

[python]

polish you continue to amaze me mixing almost brilliant posts with downright foolish or almost stupid.

why would anyone with even a primitive appreciation of the facts on the ground claim 'it will blow over' whilst the developments are suggesting exactly the opposite ?

are you growing too desperate to appreciate what's really happening to your idol ?

i have previously given you the credit for being informed about cycling's history but i have to withdraw much of it now as you show total lack of logical impartial thinking wrt to the real facts taking place.

let me repeat them for you and a bunch of other deluded fanboys how the escalation is taking place:
(i) the most important accusations to date are made by the former armstrong teammate.
(ii) fda agent novitzky gets assigned
(iii) usada opens it's own investigation
(iv) the case is considered important enough that the justice ministry of america gets involved and assigns a federal prosecutor mr. miller
(v) first search warrant is being served in conn with flandisgate
(vi) today afld comes out with the unprecedented comment on its controversy wth the uci mentioning the us criminal trial
(vii) multiple sources reveal 2 riders close to corroborating flandis's story
(viii) lemond comes out and for the first time bluntly states to the press armstrong admitted doping to him
(ix) armstrong's ex is rumoured to cooperate with novitzky

only a blind will consider this sequence as 'it will blow over'

 

[kurtinsc]

I'm going to have to disagree with you on this one (shocked, I know). If people start going down over the Landis allegations, you can promptly stick a fork in Armstrong. The nature of the allegations are such that if he's not convicted, his team was implicated. Politics is a brutal and nasty sport, one I'm not sure Armstrong is up for even in the absence of these allegations. Having someone in his inner circle convicted, would be a death knell for his political aspirations.

That being said, there is a lot that has to happen for anyone to be convicted of anything. Frankly, I can't see Hincapie or Levi going to jail. I can see them turning state's evidence, however.

Well, I'd think the only way they'd turn states evidence is if the state had enough on them to send them to jail otherwise. I'm assuming that's why people turned in the BALCO case... and many of them got jail time or probation anyway.

Perhaps the political angle was incorrect. My thinking is he'd still have his "Lance can walk on water" supporters and most of the peope who are his fans now if he doesn't go to jail.

The people who follow cycling already know he was/is doping. Those who were going to turn on him because of that have already turned. If he doesn't go to jail for doping (or get a suspension for doping barring that)... I don't see any new people turning on him. It would take a definitive failed test or a conviction to make that happen.

Perhaps it would be enough to stop political aspirations... I'll grant you that.

 

[kurtinsc]

I think this is the key point of disconnect for a lot of folks. IMHO, we (myself included) tend to be defensive of our sports heroes and tend to assume that the person who's usually the focus of attention adopts that same role in the investigation.

The FDA, ATF, and ICE target illegal drug (prescription, controlled, etc) manufacture, distribution, and sale day in and day out, every day. Usually it's a nameless, faceless person or persons hidden somewhere in a foreign country or inner city and while the end users typically get swept up in the process, they tend to fall between the cracks or retain their anonymity.

When a celebrity becomes involved in one of these cases either directly or through association with someone else, we tend to adopt that celebrity's (usual) lament that "they" were being "targeted", usually unfairly. "Why won't they just leave Barry/Marion/Jason/A-Rod alone?"

In the case of BALCO, while the names are much more salacious than Julio and Miguel from Colombia, the Feds don't really care about end users. Like most (legitimate) law enforcement, the target is the manufacturing and distribution machine.

But the feds put a LOT of pressure on Anderson and Conte to provide evidence against their customers... which they did manage to avoid to do in their plea bargain. Most reporting seemed to indicate Anderson would have gotten off if he had turned on Bonds (though that could just be media sensationalism).

Assuming you are right though... then is it safe to say the feds wouldn't be that interested in Lance unless he was distributing (which we've heard he may have been doing to some degree)? Their pursuit of Lance would be more about finding HIS suppliers, and using the threat of bringing him down as a way to get him to cough those suppliers up? If that's the case... why did they go after Bonds at all? They already knew who his supplier was (Conte... via Anderson).

 

[Race Radio]

But the feds put a LOT of pressure on Anderson and Conte to provide evidence against their customers... which they did manage to avoid to do in their plea bargain. Most reporting seemed to indicate Anderson would have gotten off if he had turned on Bonds (though that could just be media sensationalism).

Assuming you are right though... then is it safe to say the feds wouldn't be that interested in Lance unless he was distributing (which we've heard he may have been doing to some degree)? Their pursuit of Lance would be more about finding HIS suppliers, and using the threat of bringing him down as a way to get him to cough those suppliers up? If that's the case... why did they go after Bonds at all? They already knew who his supplier was (Conte... via Anderson).

Conte avoided giving up his customers? Victor sang like a bird. He is writing a book on it and has gone on CNN, ABC, CBS to talk about it.

Drugs are not Armstrong's only issue, Tax evasion, Wire fraud, FCP Act, perjury, and the ever popular obstruction of justice.

This case is not going to blow over, this is the type of case prosecutors make careers on.

 

[Colm.Murphy]

Drugs are only the issue in that they were the basis for the fraud, and then the rest of the issues flow from that.

Also, now heard that the monster article will slip into next week. (How is it that Europeans know this before those in the States?). Supposedly, it get more and more grotesque with each day. Wondering if Lance can even show his face once the article runs?

Regarding Balco, that is a poor case to compare. I sense that the greatest problem for Lance will be that he will eventually lie when questioned, and once the case fraud case is proven, he could plea on the "giving false statements" to get light jail time. However, there will need to be a "fall guy", so among the cast, who will be the one to take the brunt? Stapleton? Knaggs? Weisel? Buryneel? They will eventually turn on each other in order to avoid the really tall sentence, it is inevitable.

No matter how it gets brushed aside today, Lance will be looking at very real, very problematic legal issues. Fanboys, guys with dual-rear-view mirrors carrying the weight of Cancer fighting on their backs, the awakening is coming. There is no shame in being wrong, idolising false Gods, but repentance is the only path to salvation.

 

[Barrus]

Drugs are only the issue in that they were the basis for the fraud, and then the rest of the issues flow from that.

Also, now heard that the monster article will slip into next week. (How is it that Europeans know this before those in the States?). Supposedly, it get more and more grotesque with each day. Wondering if Lance can even show his face once the article runs?

Regarding Balco, that is a poor case to compare. I sense that the greatest problem for Lance will be that he will eventually lie when questioned, and once the case fraud case is proven, he could plea on the "giving false statements" to get light jail time. However, there will need to be a "fall guy", so among the cast, who will be the one to take the brunt? Stapleton? Knaggs? Weisel? Buryneel? They will eventually turn on each other in order to avoid the really tall sentence, it is inevitable.

No matter how it gets brushed aside today, Lance will be looking at very real, very problematic legal issues. Fanboys, guys with dual-rear-view mirrors carrying the weight of Cancer fighting on their backs, the awakening is coming. There is no shame in being wrong, idolising false Gods, but repentance is the only path to salvation.

Can you give us any insight into what we might expect in the article. If you can't due to your sources, perhaps indicate what is NOT in the article And what day we might expect the article

BTW are you working for Amnesty or are you a "just" a fan of them?

 

[Oldman]

Conte avoided giving up his customers? Victor sang like a bird. He is writing a book on it and has gone on CNN, ABC, CBS to talk about it.

Drugs are not Armstrong's only issue, Tax evasion, Wire fraud, FCP Act, perjury, and the ever popular obstruction of justice.

This case is not going to blow over, this is the type of case prosecutors make careers on.

Michael Ball and Rock Racing are "under scrutiny". Seems like pressure on Tyler might start with that level of the investigation and will travel way back in time.

 

[kurtinsc]

Conte avoided giving up his customers? Victor sang like a bird. He is writing a book on it and has gone on CNN, ABC, CBS to talk about it.

Drugs are not Armstrong's only issue, Tax evasion, Wire fraud, FCP Act, perjury, and the ever popular obstruction of justice.

This case is not going to blow over, this is the type of case prosecutors make careers on.

I must have been thinking about Anderson then... I guess that explains 4 months vs 13 months in their jail sentences.

Suprising that so few got hit with legal penalties considering that.

 

[Race Radio]

Drugs are only the issue in that they were the basis for the fraud, and then the rest of the issues flow from that.

Also, now heard that the monster article will slip into next week. (How is it that Europeans know this before those in the States?). Supposedly, it get more and more grotesque with each day. Wondering if Lance can even show his face once the article runs?

Regarding Balco, that is a poor case to compare. I sense that the greatest problem for Lance will be that he will eventually lie when questioned, and once the case fraud case is proven, he could plea on the "giving false statements" to get light jail time. However, there will need to be a "fall guy", so among the cast, who will be the one to take the brunt? Stapleton? Knaggs? Weisel? Buryneel? They will eventually turn on each other in order to avoid the really tall sentence, it is inevitable.

No matter how it gets brushed aside today, Lance will be looking at very real, very problematic legal issues. Fanboys, guys with dual-rear-view mirrors carrying the weight of Cancer fighting on their backs, the awakening is coming. There is no shame in being wrong, idolising false Gods, but repentance is the only path to salvation.

Knaggs is the weak link. He has the most to lose, Stapleton already lost 1/2 to his wife in the divorce, Weisel could fight them to a standstill, the Hog will just stay out of the US.