Stage 19: Friday, May 25: Treviso-Alpe di Pampeago. 198km

[Bumeington]

And what other tactic do you suggest? Attacking earlier? And who do you suggest should try that? Basso who can't accelerate if his life depends on it? Scarponi who just isn't strong enough? Rodriguez who can't do any long lasting attacks? Uran who is happy to not get dropped?
Or maybe not attack earlier, but make the race harder. Like what we saw today? Everyone was dead at the finish, so that tells me the race was really hard.

The only thing I can see working is Rodriguez sending Moreno and another teammate up the road and doing a short attack to catch up with them. But no way Garmin (which is strong enough to control the race) or Liquigas will let that happen.

If Kreuziger is still ahead at the finish, the race could have been harder. Ok everyone killed themselves on the final climb, but they were fresh (ish) at the bottom

 

[Sylvester]

On the first ascent of Pampeago or on Lavazè, other than the top contenders:

* Nieve could have tried something
* Gadret could have tried something
* Henao could have tried something
* De Gendt could have tried something
* Cunego could have tried something

That's what actually made this stage so boring. No one trying to go with Kreuziger and Cataldo. Now these guys finish in 8th, 10th, 11th, 12th, 13th place on the stage and they are quietly sitting in 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th and 13th place overall. Pointless, really.

 

[DirtyWorks]

... I actually think when people seee all of Liquigas on the front they assume they must be drilling it hard, but the evidence says otherwise. ...

The guys the cameras briefly show cracking off the back and losing minutes refutes your observation.

There is no strategy that will fix a power deficit on these slopes. Well, except maybe a tow up by a moto or team car.

 

[Dutchsmurf]

I don't think they're making the race hard from afar. If that were the case, we wouldn't be seeing gargantuan groups making it over the mountains, and less than spectacular breakaways going so far in such hard stages. I actually think when people see all of Liquigas on the front they assume they must be drilling it hard, but the evidence says otherwise. The first 15 guys or so in every stage (and they have been monster stages) were very close. There were barely any gaps. That doesn't scream "hard racing" to me.

I also don't buy that talk about everybody being dead. Not everybody can be equally dead. Of course they're going to be tired, it's the third week in a GT. But instead of thinking "I'm cooked - now it's the time to go" they think "I'm cooked - maybe I'll be able to do something tomorrow". So all the stages pan out the same way, and they all come down to a 2-km effort. Incidentally, of course they're not going to have anything left in the tank after doing 2 km at nearly 100%, but that doesn't mean that's how they raced the whole stage.

When Liquigas is at the front, they are going as fast as they can. You can see that on their faces and in the way they just almost fall off their bikes when done. They just can't go any faster. What we are looking at is a Giro without someone stronger than the rest. We got a group all at about the same level. And some day someone might crack. Like Kreuziger did. Like Tiralongo did today. Small time gaps are only natural when everyone is at the same level. Also because honestly the Giro field is quite weak. We got 2 old Italians, 2 young Colombians, a Spanish hill sprinter and a Canadian mountain biker. Not exactly a field that is going to rip the race apart.

And they aren't equally dead. I sure some time gaps today. So some were more dead than others, else they wouldn't have lost time. They aren't thinking "I'm cooked - now it's the time to go" , they are thinking "this would be the moment to attack, but I just can't do it".

I'm actually surprised you are expecting anything from the 2 old Italians, when it has been clear the whole Giro they just aren't strong enough. Basso doesn't have that killing pace of years ago. Back in those days everyone was in pain when he took the lead. Now a group of 10-20 is still able to follow and don't get dropped until someone else attacks. I'm not expecting anything different tomorrow than I saw today. A hard and fast race with dead riders finishing one by one, but still somewhat close to each other.

 

[rhubroma]

In any case, the days of heroic cycling are over. Everyone rides with a calculator in his jersey. It's a script. And a unhappy one at that.

This is why someone needs to try on the Mortirolo domani.

 

[hrotha]

The guys the cameras briefly show cracking off the back and losing minutes refutes your observation.

There is no strategy that will fix a power deficit on these slopes. Well, except maybe a tow up by a moto or team car.

Who are those guys? Because the group remains very big regardless after they're dropped. On the Giau stage there were 14 guys in 1:22. Today, 20 guys in 2:21. These were some of the hardest courses in recent times, mind you.

 

[DirtyWorks]

On the first ascent of Pampeago or on Lavazè, other than the top contenders:

* Nieve could have tried something
* Gadret could have tried something
* Henao could have tried something
* De Gendt could have tried something
* Cunego could have tried something

That's what actually made this stage so boring. No one trying to go with Kreuziger and Cataldo. Now these guys finish in 8th, 10th, 11th, 12th, 13th place on the stage and they are quietly sitting in 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th and 13th place overall. Pointless, really.

So they fight like dogs for their GC position as it is and then you think they have some reserves that will catapult them into a better GC position if only they had attacked early?

I'll tell you what would happen to a 5 - 10th placed rider going super-early today. The guys ahead of them in GC would have methodically caught them. And then they would have lost even more time today AND EVEN MORE tomorrow because they attacked early.

The body has limited reserves. Every attack must be examined not only for the moment, but for the cost the next couple of stages.

 

[Cervelo77]

"...and a Canadian mountain biker."

I believe last year's TDF champion was a bit of a mountain biker before the road.

 

[richwagmn]

tomorrow's stage doesn't bode well for early attacks and the mortirolo isn't exactly early. today was their shot. liquigas have made themselves look pathetic

More importantly, Basso looked pathetic. Riding tempo is a bad way to win GTs (unless you're Cadel or Levi and can TT too).

 

[will10]

More importantly, Basso looked pathetic. Riding tempo is a bad way to win GTs (unless you're Cadel or Levi and can TT too).

Funny, that's how he won his two GTs. Pathetic achievement, huh.

 

[Sylvester]

So they fight like dogs for their GC position as it is and then you think they have some reserves that will catapult them into a better GC position if only they had attacked early?

I'll tell you what would happen to a 5 - 10th placed rider going super-early today. The guys ahead of them in GC would have methodically caught them. And then they would have lost even more time today AND EVEN MORE tomorrow because they attacked early.

The body has limited reserves. Every attack must be examined not only for the moment, but for the cost the next couple of stages.

You're missing my point. They might have contested the stage win instead of protecting their 10th position, by following Kreuziger and beating him, for example. He didn't get "methodically caught", did he? Cataldo did get caught, and lost, eh, 15 seconds to Cunego and 34 to Nieve. Yet at least he tried to win the stage. And he's still sitting in 12th overall.

Moreover, 30 km to go is not "super-early".

 

[DirtyWorks]

Who are those guys? Because the group remains very big regardless after they're dropped. On the Giau stage there were 14 guys in 1:22. Today, 20 guys in 2:21. These were some of the hardest courses in recent times, mind you.

Some of this comes down to race design. The organizer wants a close race. Otherwise they lose viewers.

Some of this comes down to human limits. I don't know what you are looking for, but I don't think you will find it in a modern Grand Tour until Contador returns and ends the racing after the first mountain stage.

Some of this is this is how stage racing works. It's a game of seconds/meters over three weeks. The GC contenders are racing for the last day. Not mountain stage glory.

 

[richwagmn]

Funny, that's how he won his two GTs. Pathetic achievement, huh.

Never said that. Said his ride today was pathetic if he wants to win the Giro.

Given the minutes he's going to lose in the TT, riding tempo won't win it. Not sure if he was in a similar situation in his previous wins.

 

[rhubroma]

Never said that. Said his ride today was pathetic if he wants to win the Giro.

Given the minutes he's going to lose in the TT, riding tempo won't win it. Not sure if he was in a similar situation in his previous wins.

In previous situations his tempo was sufficient to drop the competition. But this is no longer the case.

Basso needs to take a risk now. The current tactic is no longer feasable. In fact it plays right into the hands of his competition.

 

[Escarabajo]

On the first ascent of Pampeago or on Lavazè, other than the top contenders:

* Nieve could have tried something
* Gadret could have tried something
* Henao could have tried something
* De Gendt could have tried something
* Cunego could have tried something

That's what actually made this stage so boring. No one trying to go with Kreuziger and Cataldo. Now these guys finish in 8th, 10th, 11th, 12th, 13th place on the stage and they are quietly sitting in 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th and 13th place overall. Pointless, really.

I think today was a bit early because they were fearing tomorrow. I think we will see these attacks from the "outsiders":

1 RODRIGUEZ OLIVER Joaquin ESP KAT 84:06:13 0:00
2 HESJEDAL Ryder CAN GRM 84:06:30 0:17
3 SCARPONI Michele ITA LAM 84:07:52 1:39
4 BASSO Ivan ITA LIQ 84:07:58 1:45
5 URAN URAN Rigoberto COL SKY 84:09:34 3:21
6 POZZOVIVO Domenico ITA COG 84:09:43 3:30
7 GADRET John FRA ALM 84:11:49 5:36
8 DE GENDT Thomas BEL VCD 84:11:53 5:40
9 HENAO MONTOYA Sergio Luis COL SKY 84:12:00 5:47
10 CUNEGO Damiano ITA LAM 84:12:22 6:09
11 TSCHOPP Johann SUI BMC 84:12:31 6:18
12 CATALDO Dario ITA OPQ 84:12:32 6:19
13 NIEVE ITURALDE Mikel ESP EUS 84:12:41 6:28
14 MORENO FERNANDEZ Daniel ESP KAT 84:12:54 6:41
15 BRAMBILLA Gianluca ITA COG 84:14:31 8:18

The ones in bold have the freedom to attack and I think they will.

Besides, who is going to control the race now? the two main favorites to win now have weak teams.

 

[hrotha]

Some of this comes down to race design. The organizer wants a close race. Otherwise they lose viewers.

Some of this comes down to human limits. I don't know what you are looking for, but I don't think you will find it in a modern Grand Tour until Contador returns and ends the racing after the first mountain stage.

Some of this is this is how stage racing works. It's a game of seconds/meters over three weeks. The GC contenders are racing for the last day. Not mountain stage glory.

To me that means the pace wasn't hard, which is what we were discussing.

To the bit about the organizers... They wanted a close race up to these stages, but these stages were designed to allow for sidereal gaps. If there weren't, it's because they weren't raced that hard.

Human limits should mean bigger, not smaller gaps in a course like this. In a clean field, the gaps would be greater.

So it's really all about modern racing, and why it's dull and commercially inviable in the long run. But it doesn't mean they were racing hard until the last 3.5 km.

 

[Magnus]

Human limits should mean bigger, not smaller gaps in a course like this. In a clean field, the gaps would be greater.

Why ?

 

[DirtyWorks]

You're missing my point. They might have contested the stage win instead of protecting their 10th position, by following Kreuziger and beating him, for example.

The tempo is set high enough the everyone but maybe one or two guys are miserable. So miserable 10th place is *just* hanging on. There is no attack reserve that doesn't bite the rider back 2x the next day.

Let's imagine tempo doesn't crush 10th place mentally and physically. if 10th place on GC roared off, top-5 will just sit on his wheel waiting for him to crack early. Which he will. There's an unavoidable reason he's 10th. After 10th cracked he goes to 20th or worse because he's simply not up to the task.

He didn't get "methodically caught", did he? Cataldo did get caught, and lost, eh, 15 seconds to Cunego and 34 to Nieve. Yet at least he tried to win the stage. And he's still sitting in 12th overall.

What was the gap at the bottom of the last climb? What was the gap at the finish line? That's called methodically catching a breakaway.

Moreover, 30 km to go is not "super-early".

Get back to me when you win a mountain top finish at the Giro from 30 kms out.

 

[Escarabajo]

To me that means the pace wasn't hard, which is what we were discussing.

To the bit about the organizers... They wanted a close race up to these stages, but these stages were designed to allow for sidereal gaps. If there weren't, it's because they weren't raced that hard.

Human limits should mean bigger, not smaller gaps in a course like this. In a clean field, the gaps would be greater.

So it's really all about modern racing, and why it's dull and commercially inviable in the long run. But it doesn't mean they were racing hard until the last 3.5 km.

I think so too. The only way of knowing is comparing with the time differences of the past.

If you want serious gaps either they have to be doped to the gills or clean. I don't think any of these is happening.

 

[webvan]

I think today was a bit early because they were fearing tomorrow. I think we will see these attacks from the "outsiders":



The ones in bold have the freedom to attack and I think they will.

Besides, who is going to control the race now? the two main favorites to win now have weak teams.

I certainly hope Basso wisens up, doesn't have his team do any work until the foot of the Mortirolo and then ask them to set him up Phonak style for Landis in 2006, that's his only chance and he knows it. Ideally he could have waited until the foot of the Stelvio but who's going to be around by that time anyway apart from the leaders?

 

[roundabout]

I certainly hope Basso wisens up, doesn't have his team do any work until the foot of the Mortirolo and then ask them to set him up Phonak style for Landis in 2006, that's his only chance and he knows it. Ideally he could have waited until the foot of the Stelvio but who's going to be around by that time anyway apart from the leaders?

Anyone who the leaders wait for, or do you think on the evidence of this Giro they will tackle the 20+km between the bottom of Mortirolo and Bormio by themselves without waiting for somebody to set the pace?

Even if it is the last chance for somebody to gain time.

 

[webvan]

Didn't that type of race situation occur in the 2010 Giro when Nibali took the pink jersey? Even if they wanted to wait I'm not sure that's really possible on the Mortirolo?

 

[roundabout]

The tempo is set high enough the everyone but maybe one or two guys are miserable. So miserable 10th place is *just* hanging on. There is no attack reserve that doesn't bite the rider back 2x the next day.

The way I saw it it was Agnoli setting tempo on the Lavaze and he was huffing and puffing at the bottom of the Pampeago. Now Agnoli is a good climber, but when he is taking such long pulls I would say that more than a handful of people are happy the pace.

Kreuziger and Cataldo had help but they gained 55 seconds over the peloton in what must have been 3-4 km. And that gap isn't really surprising when Casar and Pirazzi while riding well as evidenced by their final stage positions could hold the gap on the Pampeago 1.

Bottom line is that Liquigas seem to go fast enough to have people with Basso at least some way up the final climb. Whether or not they make anyone miserable in the process seems secondary.

 

[iZnoGouD]

How well will Basso do tomorrow?

 

[roundabout]

Didn't that type of race situation occur in the 2010 Giro when Nibali took the pink jersey? Even if they wanted to wait I'm not sure that's really possible on the Mortirolo?

I think that there will be 10-15 riders close enough over the top of Mortirolo to come together at the bottom of the descent. Doubt anyone from the top-4 will take the initiative on the 20 steady uphill kms up the Valtellina to Bormio. But hopefully someone from the bottom of the top-10 will be feeling strong.