Stage 19: Friday, May 25: Treviso-Alpe di Pampeago. 198km

[cineteq]

Cavendish, Ferrari, Phinney, Hunter safe within the time limit...but where's Guardini?

There he is:
163 GUARDINI Andrea ITA FAR +46:44

 

[Bernie's eyesore]

There he is:
163 GUARDINI Andrea ITA FAR +46:44

Lucky he gained so much time by going in the break.

 

[fluffkitten]

Guardini makes it.

Yay. I'm starting to like him.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

There he is:
163 GUARDINI Andrea ITA FAR +46:44

Another guy showing some balls. He can't climb at all and he's in his first Grand Tour, but he's hauling his carcass over the mountains and won his stage as a result.

 

[TechnicalDescent]

Another guy showing some balls. He can't climb at all and he's in his first Grand Tour, but he's hauling his carcass over the mountains and won his stage as a result.

Yes, I think Cavendish is one of his heroes and Guardini has gotten inspiration from Cav's gutsy decision to struggle through the mountains. They have both done the sprinter's proud.

 

[Ferminal]

Lucky he gained so much time by going in the break.

Well played

 

[MrRoboto]

Hesjedal have been really impressive. But he has also shown some inconsistency. Lets hope for one really great stage in this Giro.

 

[ooh_25mm]

What me worry?

 

[DirtyWorks]

Of course he was allowed to go. The point is he had the strength to go. He had it all along, but today he simply wasn't afraid of losing his sweet 6th place or whatever, so he went. My point is not that the attack stuck, but that he could have tried at any time, and not without chances of success.

You seem to forget that there is a finite amount of attacking that can be done. A bigger attack today, if possible, will be paid 2x back tomorrow. The efforts for the win today will make tomorrow much harder.

He clearly didn't have the strength all along otherwise he'd have finished better on some stages. Some days the legs are good and then there's the bad days. There's no reasoning. It just is.

 

[Bumeington]

Once again, what more could these riders (Basso, Scarponi, Purito and Pozzovivo) have done today?

Do you think Kreuziger was the strongest today? No? Then how did he get to the finish line first?

The pace was soft on the penultimate climb, people like Scarponi and Basso if they truly believe they can win this giro, who have teams to back them up, need to make the pace hard on the penultimate climb, thin down the group loads, then it's mano a mano all the way up the final climb.

Ok, with hindsight, Hesjedal is the strongest, but if they'd raced the last 30k not the last 3, then the gaps would have been in minutes not seconds. THIS IS THE POINT. The riders you mentioned couldn't have won the giro today it turns out, but they didn't try. Purito is excepted here, if he was the strongest going with 3k to go could have been enough to sure up his lead a bit, the other three all need minutes to win and even if they were as strong as Contador today they wouldn't have got them by riding like that

 

[Dutchsmurf]

Guys, did you see Kreuziger today? Because he was a GC contender just two days ago, and suddenly today he could up the ante. It's not a matter of strength, but of balls.

Are you serious? He started the last climb with a 2 minute advantage and only barely won it. If he was still a GC contender he would have finished 2 minutes behind. He didn't have the strength 2 days ago and he still didn't today. Sure he could have tried winning a stage earlier, but someone would have reacted to his attack then. After losing so much time, nobody cared anymore, so he got a free ride.

You act like riders like Basso and Scarponi could easily win this Giro if they just tried harder. Well I can tell you, they are trying hard. They are just not good enough. Ryder is simply the strongest rider in this Giro and I highly doubt he will lose any time tomorrow. I actually wouldn't be surprise if he starts the ITT in pink. You can shout at your screen "grow some balls and attack" and if they had the legs, they would. But their legs are protesting harder than you are shouting at your screen.

 

[cineteq]

You seem to forget that there is a finite amount of attacking that can be done. A bigger attack today, if possible, will be paid 2x back tomorrow. The efforts for the win today will make tomorrow much harder.

Purito agrees with us:

"Obviamente Hesjedal es ahora el gran favorito, hoy impresionó a todo el mundo cuando él resistió tres veces a Scarponi; Yo, en cambio, preferí mantener un ritmo más regular y atacar al final. La etapa de hoy tendrá un fuerte impacto en la forma de todo el mundo y mañana será aún más difícil: si él va a cometer un error estaremos listos para tomar ventaja de eso"
http://www.biciciclismo.com/cas/site/noticias-ficha.asp?id=51669

"Obviously Hesjedal is now the favorite, today he impressed everyone when he resisted three times Scarponi, I, however, preferred to maintain a more regular rhythm and attack at the end. Today's stage will have a strong impact on the way around the world and tomorrow will be even more difficult. If he makes a mistake we will be ready to take advantage of that."

 

[webvan]

Well at least tomorrow Basso won't have anything to lose, I see him going all out at the foot of the Stelvio to see what happens, worst case he cracks and finishes 8th instead of 4th, big deal to a double winner, not. Over 20k a lot can happen, a lot more than 3k for sure.

 

[hrotha]

You seem to forget that there is a finite amount of attacking that can be done. A bigger attack today, if possible, will be paid 2x back tomorrow. The efforts for the win today will make tomorrow much harder.

He clearly didn't have the strength all along otherwise he'd have finished better on some stages. Some days the legs are good and then there's the bad days. There's no reasoning. It just is.

And you guys seem to think you can only move if you're the strongest. That's not the case. That's where tactics come in, but nowadays people can only think of one tactic: wait for the last climb, and go. I think it's funny that so many forumers are making the same mistake they so often deride the Schlecks for.

 

[will10]

Glad to see Guardini survived.

 

[Parrulo]

And you guys seem to think you can only move if you're the strongest. That's not the case. That's where tactics come in, but nowadays people can only think of one tactic: wait for the last climb, and go. I think it's funny that so many forumers are making the same mistake they so often deride the Schlecks for.

indeed you are completely right.

at least the mortirolo is tough enough to thin the group to just the favorites by himself otherwise he would have tempo riding until almost the top of the stelvio. . .

 

[cineteq]

You act like riders like Basso and Scarponi could easily win this Giro if they just tried harder. Well I can tell you, they are trying hard. They are just not good enough.

Basso and Scarponi, unlike Rodriguez, left their potential attacks until the final week, and now they're paying the price.

 

[rhubroma]

If they want to put Ryder in difficulty, then they, someone, has to throw the gauntlet down on the Mortirolo. Risk, that is, going off the podium to have any chance of winning. There is no other way.

They need two minutes going into the last TT against him to feel "secure." The other favorites can't hope to make the difference in the last 4k of the final climb to the finish tomorrow.

Someone needs to strike on the Mortirolo. Having said that, the Canadian has really been impressive and he deserves this Giro if he rides tomorrow as today.

 

[Dutchsmurf]

And you guys seem to think you can only move if you're the strongest. That's not the case. That's where tactics come in, but nowadays people can only think of one tactic: wait for the last climb, and go. I think it's funny that so many forumers are making the same mistake they so often deride the Schlecks for.

And what other tactic do you suggest? Attacking earlier? And who do you suggest should try that? Basso who can't accelerate if his life depends on it? Scarponi who just isn't strong enough? Rodriguez who can't do any long lasting attacks? Uran who is happy to not get dropped?
Or maybe not attack earlier, but make the race harder. Like what we saw today? Everyone was dead at the finish, so that tells me the race was really hard.

The only thing I can see working is Rodriguez sending Moreno and another teammate up the road and doing a short attack to catch up with them. But no way Garmin (which is strong enough to control the race) or Liquigas will let that happen.

 

[webvan]

Basso will do it, he doesn't have much to lose, a fourth or even third on Sunday can't be of much interest to him.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

tomorrow's stage doesn't bode well for early attacks and the mortirolo isn't exactly early. today was their shot. liquigas have made themselves look pathetic

 

[Froome19]

Are you serious? He started the last climb with a 2 minute advantage and only barely won it. If he was still a GC contender he would have finished 2 minutes behind. He didn't have the strength 2 days ago and he still didn't today. Sure he could have tried winning a stage earlier, but someone would have reacted to his attack then. After losing so much time, nobody cared anymore, so he got a free ride.

You act like riders like Basso and Scarponi could easily win this Giro if they just tried harder. Well I can tell you, they are trying hard. They are just not good enough. Ryder is simply the strongest rider in this Giro and I highly doubt he will lose any time tomorrow. I actually wouldn't be surprise if he starts the ITT in pink. You can shout at your screen "grow some balls and attack" and if they had the legs, they would. But their legs are protesting harder than you are shouting at your screen.

He attacked hard to bridge the gap to the break and he was working much more than the other riders, in the wind constantly before the climb.
He would have possibly lost some time but you cant compare riders who decide to poke their head out for the last 3km and what Kreuziger did today.

Or do you really think that Andy Schleck would have lost 2min on Galibier to Voeckler?

 

[Dutchsmurf]

He attacked hard to bridge the gap to the break and he was working much more than the other riders, in the wind constantly before the climb.
He would have possibly lost some time but you cant compare riders who decide to poke their head out for the last 3km and what Kreuziger did today.

Or do you really think that Andy Schleck would have lost 2min on Galibier to Voeckler?

I think Schleck would have finished with Evans that day if he hadn't attacked. In other words, at his level of previous stages. Just like I put Kreuziger on his level of the previous stages without his headstart. Which would be a minute or more behind. All credit to him for trying to win the stage, but I highly doubt he would have taken any time if he was still a contender like hrotha seems to think.

 

[hrotha]

And what other tactic do you suggest? Attacking earlier? And who do you suggest should try that? Basso who can't accelerate if his life depends on it? Scarponi who just isn't strong enough? Rodriguez who can't do any long lasting attacks? Uran who is happy to not get dropped?
Or maybe not attack earlier, but make the race harder. Like what we saw today? Everyone was dead at the finish, so that tells me the race was really hard.

The only thing I can see working is Rodriguez sending Moreno and another teammate up the road and doing a short attack to catch up with them. But no way Garmin (which is strong enough to control the race) or Liquigas will let that happen.

I don't think they're making the race hard from afar. If that were the case, we wouldn't be seeing gargantuan groups making it over the mountains, and less than spectacular breakaways going so far in such hard stages. I actually think when people seee all of Liquigas on the front they assume they must be drilling it hard, but the evidence says otherwise. The first 15 guys or so in every stage (and they have been monster stages) were very close. There were barely any gaps. That doesn't scream "hard racing" to me.

I also don't buy that talk about everybody being dead. Not everybody can be equally dead. Of course they're going to be tired, it's the third week in a GT. But instead of thinking "I'm cooked - now it's the time to go" they think "I'm cooked - maybe I'll be able to do something tomorrow". So all the stages pan out the same way, and they all come down to a 2-km effort. Incidentally, of course they're not going to have anything left in the tank after doing 2 km at nearly 100%, but that doesn't mean that's how they raced the whole stage.

What would we say if the sprinters' teams were beaten time and time again by Cav and still didn't try to disrupt the Sky train, launch the sprint either earlier or later and generally try different things? Well, Basso's tactic (also Scarponi's) has been to hope really hard for people to drop dead by themselves. It ain't working. It wasn't working before today's stage, but he already wasted many perfectly fine mountain stages thinking it would all sort itself out somehow.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

But no way Garmin (which is strong enough to control the race) or Liquigas will let that happen.

I'm not entirely sure that Garmin are strong enough to control the race if people start going nuts. VDV and Stetina have been very impressive so far, but on every tough stage Hesjedal seems to be down to those two very quickly. And tomorrow is nothing if not tough.