State of the Peloton 2024

[Rechtschreibfehler]

My gut feeling is that a far lower percentage of the peloton is doped than 10-15 years ago...

probably partially because of the back-lash meaning more guys than before would just say no, especially if they already
have contracts for multiple years and perform at an okay level.

But what if their performance remains the same but good becomes mediocre, wins become hard to achieve top 10s, what if you have to push the watts you needed to get into a break, just to stay in the peloton?

But whatever has happened in the last ~3-4 years? I find it pretty inconceivable that a decent %, including most of the top GC guys, are pushing the limits of what is legal, and stepping over those limits.

Dumoulin, Pinot and Bardet are the same age as Landa. Their performances over the last ~5 years (pre-retirement for Dumoulin and Pinot) from what should have been their "peak" at say age ~24-27? Yeh, they either got worse or stagnated. As human physiology says they should have.

Yet Landa (their peer who at age ~24-30 was a very similar level rider overall to those 3) is now putting up numbers that would have made him DOMINANT from 2014-2020... a time when he generally was fighting for podiums.

It's really not just Landa, apparently Thomas (!) was pushing his best watts ever last season. Ever, that's better than when he won the Tour and he got beaten by a beat up Roglic for the Giro. Bernal also pushing his best watts ever this season (guess not at the tour, but the fast they are going, who knows? And it's really not just them, the overall level of many many riders has just made a jump. The overall speed has gone up, all the climbing times are much better than before, even absurdly better as we've seen on the weekend on two occasions. Not only did even Remco beat Pantani's time (and it wasn't close) a lot of riders did times competetive in the 90ies.

So while Pogacar's and Vingegaard's dominance are extreme, they are the tip of the iceberg. A very sharp tip, but only the tip. There's also the possibility that they are just really extremly talented and this is massively amplified by whatever is going on.

 

[Forever The Best]

Maybe these types of performances will cause race organizers to use some unknown climbs in the future? Because I think Alpe d'Huez and Ventoux may be no go zones after this. (Although yesterday already tells the story given that Plateau de Beille was a commonly used climb in the past)

 

[Rackham]

I think it's also a case of UAE & Jumbo being massively ahead of curve & everyone else is playing catch-up.

Someone on another forum (in French) described the peloton's situation as the equivalent of "chicken thieves mixing it up with serial killers", i.e. from petty criminals to all time most wanted. But they're all bending the rules one way or another to various degrees. There are no saints here.

That's how it was in the 1990's as well hence why Christophe Bassons had no friends in the sport whatsoever. And he still doesn't for what it's worth, i.e. all the former pro consultants working for the media are... former dopers. Clean guys aren't welcome.

Kelly, McEwen, Jalabert, Durand etc all get cosy jobs for life.

Crime pays.

 

[Froome]

When I have more time, I will discuss what happened yesterday, but for now, I want to say that unfortunately, it is almost certain that this sport will soon go to the bottom like it happened 20/15 years ago.

I always said that I didn't care about doping, as long as it didn't reach scandalous proportions and there wasn't so much disparity in usage between the best teams, but that has clearly stopped happening.

Going from 6.2 w/kg to almost 7 w/kg in 1 year or 2 is too much....I saw this movie happen years ago, and it didn't end well for this sport.

They got me, i didn't expected this. It would be easy to say that Visma needs to have to reduce the gap to Emirates and increase the budget to win this war, to improve his programm to Vingegaard plus he can benefit more of them without the injuries, but it would be hypocrite, because this will end really bad, very soon.

 

[hrotha]

My gut feeling is that a far lower percentage of the peloton is doped than 10-15 years ago...

probably partially because of the back-lash meaning more guys than before would just say no, especially if they already have contracts for multiple years and perform at an okay level.

Anti-doping pressure has only eased in the last 10-15 years. The media talks about it A LOT less often, top riders are obviously getting away with it, and the last notable biopassport case was some time in 1659, coincidentally just around the time a few quite prominent riders who obviously intended to contest any sanctions were cleared in baffling circumstances. There is no reason why doping would be less prevalent now than 10-15 years ago

 

[Penninepeddler]

But what if their performance remains the same but good becomes mediocre, wins become hard to achieve top 10s, what if you have to push the watts you needed to get into a break, just to stay in the peloton?



It's really not just Landa, apparently Thomas (!) was pushing his best watts ever last season. Ever, that's better than when he won the Tour and he got beaten by a beat up Roglic for the Giro. Bernal also pushing his best watts ever this season (guess not at the tour, but the fast they are going, who knows? And it's really not just them, the overall level of many many riders has just made a jump. The overall speed has gone up, all the climbing times are much better than before, even absurdly better as we've seen on the weekend on two occasions. Not only did even Remco beat Pantani's time (and it wasn't close) a lot of riders did times competetive in the 90ies.

So while Pogacar's and Vingegaard's dominance are extreme, they are the tip of the iceberg. A very sharp tip, but only the tip. There's also the possibility that they are just really extremly talented and this is massively amplified by whatever is going on.

My "gut" says we will probably get to that saturation point again very soon if what seems to be happening is happening... and if that is correct then quite a few decent riders aged ~25-30 will fall off very quickly and not get another contract or retire.

People joke about guys like Alaphilippe, S. Yates, Hindley, Gaudu, Carapaz, Bardet and Bernal falling off a cliff, having bad tours/years etc... but when you look at their actual numbers they look the same as ever (ofc predicted going off times)... just there are ~10-15 guys who got a lot better while they stayed the same or followed a normal age curve in some cases.

Ofc, we will probably never know precisely who is doing what and to what extent. But from say ~2015-2021 or so? Things looked a lot more "normal" across the board.

 

[Penninepeddler]

Anti-doping pressure has only eased in the last 10-15 years. The media talks about it A LOT less often, top riders are obviously getting away with it, and the last notable biopassport case was some time in 1659, coincidentally just around the time a few quite prominent riders who obviously intended to contend any sanctions were cleared in baffling circumstances. There is no reason why doping would be less prevalent now than 10-15 years ago

Tbf probably should have said 15-20 years ago aha. 2010 still feels 10 years ago to me.

 

[Valv.Piti]

This is the perfect time to increase the difficulty of the race - longer TTs, less flat days, longer days in the mountain. I don't see how this is not win-win for everyone unless of course the whole things blows up like 1998 or 2006. Im thrilled about watching hard racing with massive gaps and its certainly much, much better than say2008-2019, especially in TdF.

 

[Tim Cahill]

Saddest post I saw yesterday was @Tonton mentioning it was Bastille Day

I didn't know, there's never been a need to make a mental note of it because you get reminded when there are loads of French riders going like hell in a big breakaway with fans screaming and commentators talking about them 'making a special effort today because it's Bastille Day'. All I saw was Bardet trying once at the start and then getting swallowed up and spat out by some drone, I think Martinez was there for a short while?

Top Frenchman is 1 hour 17 minutes down, no wonder they're fed up of it. The mutant attacks are fun for a moment but it's very fleeting, tiktok cycling. I think they have a point about a lot of the romance and charm being sucked out of the sport, there is still the odd nice moment like on stage 1 but they are becoming more few and far between. Sky were boring tactically but at least the other guys had their chances at glory, The Tour started well but as soon as the GC teams took over you realised the difference in medical preparation.

There needs to be a suspension of disbelief involved, it's gone.

 

[ashhutch1997]

I do hope they include Alpe d'huez in next years route. Can't wait for the first 5 riders to do sub 35 minutes!

 

[perico]

The more I think the less yesterday makes sense. 3:30 on the previous record, set by Pantani (the greatest climber in cycling history before yesterday) in 1998 Tour, at the end of a very tough stage? Motors?

Pantani didn’t attack the climb the way they did yesterday. Yesterday’s gap to Pantani was larger than the one Pantani had to super climber Bobby Julich in 1998 at 1:30.

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

My "gut" says we will probably get to that saturation point again very soon if what seems to be happening is happening... and if that is correct then quite a few decent riders aged ~25-30 will fall off very quickly and not get another contract or retire.

People joke about guys like Alaphilippe, S. Yates, Hindley, Gaudu, Carapaz, Bardet and Bernal falling off a cliff, having bad tours/years etc... but when you look at their actual numbers they look the same as ever (ofc predicted going off times)... just there are ~10-15 guys who got a lot better while they stayed the same or followed a normal age curve in some cases.

Ofc, we will probably never know precisely who is doing what and to what extent. But from say ~2015-2021 or so? Things looked a lot more "normal" across the board.

I just don't know why you think, maybe I misunderstand you though, that only 10-15 guys got much better. Respectively there may be 10-15 guys better in their respective races to compete in (even though Alaphilipe is making a comeback it looks like and he rides for the same team as do nearly Pantani Landa and better Pantani Remco). There have been plentyfull voices from the peleton talking about doing their best watts ever, some of them pretty late in their carreers. The rational offered is that they hacked nutrition and training science like never before.

 

[Eclipse]

A masterpiece of science fiction.

At least we've got a proper chance taking racer as the figurehead (and one who has cracked a few times to boot).

 

[Valv.Piti]

The most puzzling thing is great climbers such as Carapaz, Mas, Bardet, Gaudu Hindley etc. just getting spat out the back. Pure climbers with big GT-credentials who would normally in this field fly around 5th-10th (at least some of them). I think those guys are just in disbelief as to what they are seeing, because something is happening, but they are not on it.

 

[houtdffan]

I do hope they include Alpe d'huez in next years route. Can't wait for the first 5 riders to do sub 35 minutes!

I honestly think the winner would be pushing 30 minutes

 

[Penninepeddler]

I just don't know why you think, maybe I misunderstand you though, that only 10-15 guys got much better. Respectively there may be 10-15 guys better in their respective races to compete in (even though Alaphilipe is making a comeback it looks like and he rides for the same team as do nearly Pantani Landa and better Pantani Remco). There have been plentyfull voices from the peleton talking about doing their best watts ever, some of them pretty late in their carreers. The rational offered is that they hacked nutrition and training science like never before.

Yeh, maybe some nuance lost.

I dont think just 10-15 guys got better. Just in terms of comparing say the best ~20-25 guys on earth right now it seems that ~60%, regardless of age, take big jumps forward each year, while some others are following more "normal" physiological development. I.E. peaking between ~24-30 and then falling off/stagnating.

Then ofc project that to whole peloton? It is a lot more than 10-15 guys...

 

[Forever The Best]

The most puzzling thing is great climbers such as Carapaz, Mas, Bardet, Gaudu Hindley etc. just getting spat out the back. Pure climbers with big GT-credentials who would normally in this field fly around 5th-10th (at least some of them). I think those guys are just in disbelief as to what they are seeing, because something is happening, but they are not on it.

Yeah Carapaz and Mas were very good between 2018-2022. In that time frame Carapaz won Giro+Olympics RR+Suisse, podiumed all 3 GTs (4 GT podiums in total) and Mas had 3 podiums at Vuelta, finished 2nd at Lombardia (outsprinted by Pogacar), had a top 5 in Tour.
Last year both dropped off massively and haven't recovered this year (hell, results may have got worse on the case of Mas, although Vuelta hasn't happened yet)

Hindley took a massive jump in 2020, finishing 2nd in Giro out of nowhere, was nowhere in 2021, then bounced back in 2022 and won the Giro with a huge performance on Fedaia, then was disappointing last year (7th in Tour was disappointing imo), then started off good this year with 3rd in Tirreno and has been awful since.

The fact that a rider who took a massive jump in 2020 (Hindley) and a rider who was already great before 2020 (Carapaz) are both struggling (whilst they were both doing well in 2022) makes me agree with you.

 

[Rackham]

Apparently we're all just a bunch of killjoys though, i.e. if you take a look at the general consensus this morning around the Internet, it's actually quite... problematic.

The TikTok/Instagram/X/YouTuber generation are absolutely loving these superhuman Marvel performances from Pog & Vinge. We've got on onslaught of people who're the equivalent of Lance fanboys 20 years ago & they're totally committed to defending modern cycling as it is.

Don't ask questions, consume product, get hyped for next product.

 

[Forever The Best]

Also Gaudu has been very disappointing for over a year. In 2021 he took a massive step forward with 3rd at Liege, 5th in Pais Vasco+stage win, 7th in Olympics RR+Lombardia+Fleche, 2022 he was 4th in Tour and 2023 he started with 2nd in Paris-Nice (even beating Vingegaard) and 4th in Pais Vasco but his only notable result since then has been 9th in last years Tour and he has been nowhere this year.

Bardet is a weird case. Was 2nd at Liege this year but his ability of riding for GC in GTs seems to be completely gone (although in 2022 he was strong, was looking like he could contend for the win in Giro before retiring with sickness and finished 7th in Tour before Quintana DQ. Was also doing well in 2020 Tour before crash, was a bit disappointing 7th in 2021 Giro. He apparently finished 9th in Giro this year, but field was awful).
And he was obviously a rider who was very good between 2016-2018 (multiple Tour podiums, also podiums in Liege and Worlds RR), before an awful 2019.

 

[Penninepeddler]

Yeah Carapaz and Mas were very good between 2018-2022. In that time frame Carapaz won Giro+Olympics RR+Suisse, podiumed all 3 GTs (4 GT podiums in total) and Mas had 3 podiums at Vuelta, finished 2nd at Lombardia (outsprinted by Pogacar), had a top 5 in Tour.
Last year both dropped off massively and haven't recovered this year (hell, results may have got worse on the case of Mas, although Vuelta hasn't happened yet)

Hindley took a massive jump in 2020, finishing 2nd in Giro out of nowhere, was nowhere in 2021, then bounced back in 2022 and won the Giro with a huge performance on Fedaia, then was disappointing last year (7th in Tour was disappointing imo), then started off good this year with 3rd in Tirreno and has been awful since.

The fact that a rider who took a massive jump in 2020 (Hindley) and a rider who was already great before 2020 (Carapaz) are both struggling (whilst they were both doing well in 2022) makes me agree with you.

These guys (and some of the other stragglers) all followed very "normal" career trajectories too.

Mas started his prime in 2018 age 23.
Hindley started his prime in 2020 age 24.
Gaudu started his prime in 2019 age 23.
Carapaz started his prime in 2018 age 25.

And in 3/4 of their cases (Carapaz tbf is 31 now and in theory a normal person would be stagnating at best at this point) they are still in what should be their "primes"...

and yeh, their "straggling" is not due to them even getting worse. Their numbers are the same as they were on paper a few years ago. Same as someone like Bernal too...

People are talking about Pantini's time... but FFS... Thibault Pinot (who is one of the guys from the last decade at the sharp end with likely the highest chance of being clean) went up the same mountain in 45:08 in 2015.... 45:08. More than FIVE minutes slower than Pogacar. Pinault who is/was a few kg lighter than Tadej while being taller... who in terms of pure climbing was probably the best (or very close) climber in the 2010s...

it is just so implausible...

 

[Rackham]

Also Gaudu has been very disappointing for over a year. In 2021 he took a massive step forward with 3rd at Liege, 5th in Pais Vasco+stage win, 7th in Olympics RR+Lombardia+Fleche, 2022 he was 4th in Tour and 2023 he started by 2nd in Paris-Nice even beating Vingegaard) and 4th in Pais Vasco but his only notable result since then has been 9th in last years Tour and he has been nowhere this year.

Bardet is a weird case. Was 2nd at Liege this year but his ability of riding for GC in GTs seems to be completely gone (although in 2022 he was strong, was looking like he could contend for the win in Giro before retiring with sickness and finished 7th in Tour before Quintana DQ. Was also doing well in 2020 Tour before crash, was a bit disappointing 7th in 2021 Giro. He apparently finished 9th in Giro this year). And he was obviously a rider who was very good between 2016-2018 (multiple Tour podiums, also podiums in Liege and Worlds RR), before an awful 2019.

They threw Bardet a bone with his stage 1 win & jersey so he'd be less inclined to label what was coming later in the Tour Moto-GP.

 

[ppanther92]

The most puzzling thing is great climbers such as Carapaz, Mas, Bardet, Gaudu Hindley etc. just getting spat out the back. Pure climbers with big GT-credentials who would normally in this field fly around 5th-10th (at least some of them). I think those guys are just in disbelief as to what they are seeing, because something is happening, but they are not on it.

So the theory is that only some teams have access to this Carbon Monoxide breathing stuff (or are willing to take the risk)? But indeed, the 3 teams mentioned - UAE and Visma for sure but also Gee on Israel (for his size) give outstanding performances. And French are totally blindsided by it?

Could be but also hard to tell. But indeed, I wonder as well for the rapid downfalls of certain riders that theoretically are at the best age and more or less are in the same form as in their peak result years but suddenly can't follow anymore. Why don't they profit from "better training, material, and nutrition"?

 

[ppanther92]

I guess we have to wait for a tell-all book anyway

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Yeah Carapaz and Mas were very good between 2018-2022. In that time frame Carapaz won Giro+Olympics RR+Suisse, podiumed all 3 GTs (4 GT podiums in total) and Mas had 3 podiums at Vuelta, finished 2nd at Lombardia (outsprinted by Pogacar), had a top 5 in Tour.
Last year both dropped off massively and haven't recovered this year (hell, results may have got worse on the case of Mas, although Vuelta hasn't happened yet)

Hindley took a massive jump in 2020, finishing 2nd in Giro out of nowhere, was nowhere in 2021, then bounced back in 2022 and won the Giro with a huge performance on Fedaia, then was disappointing last year (7th in Tour was disappointing imo), then started off good this year with 3rd in Tirreno and has been awful since.

The fact that a rider who took a massive jump in 2020 (Hindley) and a rider who was already great before 2020 (Carapaz) are both struggling (whilst they were both doing well in 2022) makes me agree with you.

Hindley didn't do so badly in last year's Tour. He won a stage and was fighting for third before he crashed.

 

[Forever The Best]

Hindley didn't do so badly in last year's Tour. He won a stage and was fighting for third before he crashed.

Ah, I didn't know about the crash since I only followed a few stages last year. Was aware of the stage win, but not why he faded later on. Thanks.