State of the Peloton 2024

[Valv.Piti]

The most puzzling thing is great climbers such as Carapaz, Mas, Bardet, Gaudu Hindley etc. just getting spat out the back. Pure climbers with big GT-credentials who would normally in this field fly around 5th-10th (at least some of them). I think those guys are just in disbelief as to what they are seeing, because something is happening, but they are not on it.

 

[houtdffan]

I do hope they include Alpe d'huez in next years route. Can't wait for the first 5 riders to do sub 35 minutes!

I honestly think the winner would be pushing 30 minutes

 

[Penninepeddler]

I just don't know why you think, maybe I misunderstand you though, that only 10-15 guys got much better. Respectively there may be 10-15 guys better in their respective races to compete in (even though Alaphilipe is making a comeback it looks like and he rides for the same team as do nearly Pantani Landa and better Pantani Remco). There have been plentyfull voices from the peleton talking about doing their best watts ever, some of them pretty late in their carreers. The rational offered is that they hacked nutrition and training science like never before.

Yeh, maybe some nuance lost.

I dont think just 10-15 guys got better. Just in terms of comparing say the best ~20-25 guys on earth right now it seems that ~60%, regardless of age, take big jumps forward each year, while some others are following more "normal" physiological development. I.E. peaking between ~24-30 and then falling off/stagnating.

Then ofc project that to whole peloton? It is a lot more than 10-15 guys...

 

[Forever The Best]

The most puzzling thing is great climbers such as Carapaz, Mas, Bardet, Gaudu Hindley etc. just getting spat out the back. Pure climbers with big GT-credentials who would normally in this field fly around 5th-10th (at least some of them). I think those guys are just in disbelief as to what they are seeing, because something is happening, but they are not on it.

Yeah Carapaz and Mas were very good between 2018-2022. In that time frame Carapaz won Giro+Olympics RR+Suisse, podiumed all 3 GTs (4 GT podiums in total) and Mas had 3 podiums at Vuelta, finished 2nd at Lombardia (outsprinted by Pogacar), had a top 5 in Tour.
Last year both dropped off massively and haven't recovered this year (hell, results may have got worse on the case of Mas, although Vuelta hasn't happened yet)

Hindley took a massive jump in 2020, finishing 2nd in Giro out of nowhere, was nowhere in 2021, then bounced back in 2022 and won the Giro with a huge performance on Fedaia, then was disappointing last year (7th in Tour was disappointing imo), then started off good this year with 3rd in Tirreno and has been awful since.

The fact that a rider who took a massive jump in 2020 (Hindley) and a rider who was already great before 2020 (Carapaz) are both struggling (whilst they were both doing well in 2022) makes me agree with you.

 

[Rackham]

Apparently we're all just a bunch of killjoys though, i.e. if you take a look at the general consensus this morning around the Internet, it's actually quite... problematic.

The TikTok/Instagram/X/YouTuber generation are absolutely loving these superhuman Marvel performances from Pog & Vinge. We've got on onslaught of people who're the equivalent of Lance fanboys 20 years ago & they're totally committed to defending modern cycling as it is.

Don't ask questions, consume product, get hyped for next product.

 

[Forever The Best]

Also Gaudu has been very disappointing for over a year. In 2021 he took a massive step forward with 3rd at Liege, 5th in Pais Vasco+stage win, 7th in Olympics RR+Lombardia+Fleche, 2022 he was 4th in Tour and 2023 he started with 2nd in Paris-Nice (even beating Vingegaard) and 4th in Pais Vasco but his only notable result since then has been 9th in last years Tour and he has been nowhere this year.

Bardet is a weird case. Was 2nd at Liege this year but his ability of riding for GC in GTs seems to be completely gone (although in 2022 he was strong, was looking like he could contend for the win in Giro before retiring with sickness and finished 7th in Tour before Quintana DQ. Was also doing well in 2020 Tour before crash, was a bit disappointing 7th in 2021 Giro. He apparently finished 9th in Giro this year, but field was awful).
And he was obviously a rider who was very good between 2016-2018 (multiple Tour podiums, also podiums in Liege and Worlds RR), before an awful 2019.

 

[Penninepeddler]

Yeah Carapaz and Mas were very good between 2018-2022. In that time frame Carapaz won Giro+Olympics RR+Suisse, podiumed all 3 GTs (4 GT podiums in total) and Mas had 3 podiums at Vuelta, finished 2nd at Lombardia (outsprinted by Pogacar), had a top 5 in Tour.
Last year both dropped off massively and haven't recovered this year (hell, results may have got worse on the case of Mas, although Vuelta hasn't happened yet)

Hindley took a massive jump in 2020, finishing 2nd in Giro out of nowhere, was nowhere in 2021, then bounced back in 2022 and won the Giro with a huge performance on Fedaia, then was disappointing last year (7th in Tour was disappointing imo), then started off good this year with 3rd in Tirreno and has been awful since.

The fact that a rider who took a massive jump in 2020 (Hindley) and a rider who was already great before 2020 (Carapaz) are both struggling (whilst they were both doing well in 2022) makes me agree with you.

These guys (and some of the other stragglers) all followed very "normal" career trajectories too.

Mas started his prime in 2018 age 23.
Hindley started his prime in 2020 age 24.
Gaudu started his prime in 2019 age 23.
Carapaz started his prime in 2018 age 25.

And in 3/4 of their cases (Carapaz tbf is 31 now and in theory a normal person would be stagnating at best at this point) they are still in what should be their "primes"...

and yeh, their "straggling" is not due to them even getting worse. Their numbers are the same as they were on paper a few years ago. Same as someone like Bernal too...

People are talking about Pantini's time... but FFS... Thibault Pinot (who is one of the guys from the last decade at the sharp end with likely the highest chance of being clean) went up the same mountain in 45:08 in 2015.... 45:08. More than FIVE minutes slower than Pogacar. Pinault who is/was a few kg lighter than Tadej while being taller... who in terms of pure climbing was probably the best (or very close) climber in the 2010s...

it is just so implausible...

 

[Rackham]

Also Gaudu has been very disappointing for over a year. In 2021 he took a massive step forward with 3rd at Liege, 5th in Pais Vasco+stage win, 7th in Olympics RR+Lombardia+Fleche, 2022 he was 4th in Tour and 2023 he started by 2nd in Paris-Nice even beating Vingegaard) and 4th in Pais Vasco but his only notable result since then has been 9th in last years Tour and he has been nowhere this year.

Bardet is a weird case. Was 2nd at Liege this year but his ability of riding for GC in GTs seems to be completely gone (although in 2022 he was strong, was looking like he could contend for the win in Giro before retiring with sickness and finished 7th in Tour before Quintana DQ. Was also doing well in 2020 Tour before crash, was a bit disappointing 7th in 2021 Giro. He apparently finished 9th in Giro this year). And he was obviously a rider who was very good between 2016-2018 (multiple Tour podiums, also podiums in Liege and Worlds RR), before an awful 2019.

They threw Bardet a bone with his stage 1 win & jersey so he'd be less inclined to label what was coming later in the Tour Moto-GP.

 

[ppanther92]

The most puzzling thing is great climbers such as Carapaz, Mas, Bardet, Gaudu Hindley etc. just getting spat out the back. Pure climbers with big GT-credentials who would normally in this field fly around 5th-10th (at least some of them). I think those guys are just in disbelief as to what they are seeing, because something is happening, but they are not on it.

So the theory is that only some teams have access to this Carbon Monoxide breathing stuff (or are willing to take the risk)? But indeed, the 3 teams mentioned - UAE and Visma for sure but also Gee on Israel (for his size) give outstanding performances. And French are totally blindsided by it?

Could be but also hard to tell. But indeed, I wonder as well for the rapid downfalls of certain riders that theoretically are at the best age and more or less are in the same form as in their peak result years but suddenly can't follow anymore. Why don't they profit from "better training, material, and nutrition"?

 

[ppanther92]

I guess we have to wait for a tell-all book anyway

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Yeah Carapaz and Mas were very good between 2018-2022. In that time frame Carapaz won Giro+Olympics RR+Suisse, podiumed all 3 GTs (4 GT podiums in total) and Mas had 3 podiums at Vuelta, finished 2nd at Lombardia (outsprinted by Pogacar), had a top 5 in Tour.
Last year both dropped off massively and haven't recovered this year (hell, results may have got worse on the case of Mas, although Vuelta hasn't happened yet)

Hindley took a massive jump in 2020, finishing 2nd in Giro out of nowhere, was nowhere in 2021, then bounced back in 2022 and won the Giro with a huge performance on Fedaia, then was disappointing last year (7th in Tour was disappointing imo), then started off good this year with 3rd in Tirreno and has been awful since.

The fact that a rider who took a massive jump in 2020 (Hindley) and a rider who was already great before 2020 (Carapaz) are both struggling (whilst they were both doing well in 2022) makes me agree with you.

Hindley didn't do so badly in last year's Tour. He won a stage and was fighting for third before he crashed.

 

[Forever The Best]

Hindley didn't do so badly in last year's Tour. He won a stage and was fighting for third before he crashed.

Ah, I didn't know about the crash since I only followed a few stages last year. Was aware of the stage win, but not why he faded later on. Thanks.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Ah, I didn't know about the crash since I only followed a few stages last year. Was aware of the stage win, but not why he faded later on. Thanks.

It's quite likely he wouldn't have finished on the podium anyway, since other riders looked stronger in the third week, but it definitely didn't help his chances either.

 

[Valv.Piti]

I think he would have finished 3rd. I also believe C-Rod would have finished 3rd if he didn't crash as well, but thats just specluation. I think chances are those two would be a tad stronger than Yates.

Anyways, yesterday was also quite telling in that Ineos was completely blown away. Pidcock is sick, but wouldn't have done a thing, Bernal is apparantly pushing TdF winner numbers and stand no chance (well, I don't believe he does this race, but I do believe his level generally is as good as 2019), their whole team was basically gone. Only De Plus was quite good, C-Rod was isolated and wasn't great either. They are just completely overmatched

 

[Forever The Best]

When I have more time, I will discuss what happened yesterday, but for now, I want to say that unfortunately, it is almost certain that this sport will soon go to the bottom like it happened 20/15 years ago.

I always said that I didn't care about doping, as long as it didn't reach scandalous proportions and there wasn't so much disparity in usage between the best teams, but that has clearly stopped happening.

Going from 6.2 w/kg to almost 7 w/kg in 1 year or 2 is too much....I saw this movie happen years ago, and it didn't end well for this sport.

They got me, i didn't expected this. It would be easy to say that Visma needs to have to reduce the gap to Emirates and increase the budget to win this war, to improve his programm to Vingegaard plus he can benefit more of them without the injurie, but it would be hypocrite, because this will end really bad, very soon.

I think UCI and anti-doping organizations learned from their actions in the past that decreased the popularity in the past (that almost killed the sport in some countries). In the past cycling was the laughing stock of casuals with all the doping cases. Cycling is currently very popular with Netflix and all, why try to change that? I don't expect some major rider testing positive or a Operacion Puerto like doping scandal in the future.

 

[Rackham]

Exclusive: Tour riders are inhaling carbon monoxide to optimise altitude training - Escape Collective

Top teams Visma and UAE confirm they have access to specialized equipment for testing, but deny using the potentially powerful new method for performance enhancement.

escapecollective.com

 

[Salvarani]

My gut feeling is that a far lower percentage of the peloton is doped than 10-15 years ago...

probably partially because of the back-lash meaning more guys than before would just say no, especially if they already have contracts for multiple years and perform at an okay level.

But whatever has happened in the last ~3-4 years? I find it pretty inconceivable that a decent %, including most of the top GC guys, are pushing the limits of what is legal, and stepping over those limits.

Dumoulin, Pinot and Bardet are the same age as Landa. Their performances over the last ~5 years (pre-retirement for Dumoulin and Pinot) from what should have been their "peak" at say age ~24-27? Yeh, they either got worse or stagnated. As human physiology says they should have.

Yet Landa (their peer who at age ~24-30 was a very similar level rider overall to those 3) is now putting up numbers that would have made him DOMINANT from 2014-2020... a time when he generally was fighting for podiums.

I think most of the pro peloton are doped, just to manage both the training load and the racing load.

I bet most riders in the TdF are doing something. Just to be able get up and ride every day.

Then you have the talent aspects that comes with physiology and genes... then you add being a high responder to it.

Dumo and Pinot both stagnated. They lost it both physically and mentally. While they probably werent no angels either.

Bardet has had a great season this year.

Landa been great for the past few years and now climbing as good as Pantani.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

i dont know anymore what's more incredible

- Vingegaard returning from a heavy crash putting out by far his best numbers ever like it never happened
- Pogacar going even 0.1 w/kg better than that.
- Evenepoel also casually destroying Pantani record in the background

What the ***. They are going 10%+ faster than Armstrong times. Hilarious.

 

[Red Rick]

Apparently we're all just a bunch of killjoys though, i.e. if you take a look at the general consensus this morning around the Internet, it's actually quite... problematic.

The TikTok/Instagram/X/YouTuber generation are absolutely loving these superhuman Marvel performances from Pog & Vinge. We've got on onslaught of people who're the equivalent of Lance fanboys 20 years ago & they're totally committed to defending modern cycling as it is.

Don't ask questions, consume product, get hyped for next product.

Its disgusting to see really

 

[Red Rick]

i dont know anymore what's more incredible

- Vingegaard returning from a heavy crash putting out by far his best numbers ever like it never happened
- Pogacar going even 0.1 w/kg better than that.
- Evenepoel also casually destroying Pantani record in the background

What the ***. They are going 10%+ faster than Armstrong times. Hilarious.

Whats more indredible is fans eating this *** up

 

[Savant12]

Whats more indredible is fans eating this *** up

I'm just here for the memes and comments. It's a real spectacle for sure. Doping has never ever gone away.

 

[Rackham]

I'm happy to be an old curmudgeon on this topic.

I was a kid in the 1990's. Been there, done that. Superpowers & comic book heroes aren't only retro but they're also totally impossible. The speeds these guys are doing on these HC climbs after a 200km multi col stage are a literal joke. It's delirious. There's no excuse, none. The only bike technology which permits that sort of increase is a freaking e-bike. Anyone trying to explain this stuff as 'normal' is out of their mind. It's impossible.

But when I look at all the ex riders who're consultants on TV (dopers) or the 'experts' in the media covering this sport, everyone has a vested interest in maintaining the status quo.

Money money money. That's what it's all about. It's what it was all about 20 years ago as well.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Take me back to sagan, Alaphilippe and kwiatoski on the poggio. Stannard vs terprstrA in the rain. Pinot vs Nibali on civiglio.

These days I am embarrassed to be fan of the sport. July is my least favourite month

 

[Ripper]

So the theory is that only some teams have access to this Carbon Monoxide breathing stuff (or are willing to take the risk)? But indeed, the 3 teams mentioned - UAE and Visma for sure but also Gee on Israel (for his size) give outstanding performances. And French are totally blindsided by it?

Could be but also hard to tell. But indeed, I wonder as well for the rapid downfalls of certain riders that theoretically are at the best age and more or less are in the same form as in their peak result years but suddenly can't follow anymore. Why don't they profit from "better training, material, and nutrition"?

With the CO piece, I'm not sure if I read it correctly. It looks like both IPT and VLAB made statements about using it for assessment only, but did UAE make any comment?

 

[Penninepeddler]

Tadej Pogacar (age 25, 2024): 39:41

an entire 15% better than...

Thibault Pinot (age 25, 2015): 45:38

who was 20% better than...

John Degenkolb (age 35, 2024): 54:54

Who was probably not going full gas...

Seems about right. Yeh. Pinot is pretty much equidistant from Pogacar and Degenkolb as a climber.

(ofc, there are definitely some gains to be had between 2015 and present in terms of bike tech. BUT the place where that bike tech impacts least is on climbs)