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Super-human performances from Contador at Giro?

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May 12, 2010
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rata de sentina said:
I wouldn't be surprised if he was clean at this Giro, especially given the current circumstances. I don't think a clean AC would have a lot to fear from from Nibali and Scarponi. If Benotti who claims inside information could please provide details of the the "program" that Scarponi and Nibali are on that'd be great. Doses and days etc would be good, because if they are on a "program" it's not a very good one, because they're a lot slower than past dopers. Thanking you in anticipation....

Really? I would say that Scarponi is probably of all the major GC-riders the guy who takes the most risks. and on the 'best' program insofar is having the biggest improvement due to doping. That guy was on the full Fuentes-diet, was an average GC rider, gets suspended, comes back, and suddenly wins major races and podiums a grand tour.

It would pretty much be like Cataldo getting busted now for using all doping products available to men, getting suspended for two years, and coming back to win the Giro.
 
Lanark said:
Really? I would say that Scarponi is probably of all the major GC-riders the guy who takes the most risks. and on the 'best' program insofar is having the biggest improvement due to doping. That guy was on the full Fuentes-diet, was an average GC rider, gets suspended, comes back, and suddenly wins major races and podiums a grand tour.

It would pretty much be like Cataldo getting busted now for using all doping products available to men, getting suspended for two years, and coming back to win the Giro.

Scarponi got raided while on a training camp about 5 weeks ago, apparently in relation to the Ferrari investigation.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/is-dr-ferrari-at-the-centre-of-latest-italian-doping-investigation

Only suspected of being a client though, no proof presented.

Interesting how that article mentions that di Luca and Sella were a big source of evidence, their performances are quite a bit down since they got banned in 2009/2008.
 
Jul 28, 2009
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Lanark said:
That guy was on the full Fuentes-diet, was an average GC rider, gets suspended, comes back, and suddenly wins major races and podiums a grand tour.
So Scarponi's conclusion upon being sanctioned for doping was to dope more? His improvement needs to be ascribed to more than merely a "full program" because your implication is that he has always been on a "full program". Unless he was just "thinking about it" like Basso beforehand and being caught was just the impetus he needed to go the whole hog. Unless Fuentes was a bungling fool? So who is Scaponi's current puppetmaster? Ferarri seems unlikely as he is subject to frequent 'scrutiny'.
 
Oct 16, 2010
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rata de sentina said:
I know that (true to your nom de plume) you're not prone to an extended discourse but I'd appreciate an explanation of your reasoning.

:)

actually, the reason I'm economic with words is that my knowledge of cycling is quite bleak compared to most out here.
but I did give you a reason in my previous post. the reason was given by ferminal, who said that AC would be a fool to go in clean, cuz that would bring along the risk of being outclimbed by guys from the second ranks. This would of course be an indirect but rather painful confirmation of his doping regime in previous years.
 
Jul 28, 2009
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There are a number of suppositions in Ferminals reasoning including that AC is a bloody idiot. I haven't seen any evidence for that yet. Ferminal and others should pay more attention to the jewel of the clinic which is the power calculations for the climbing stages thread.
 
Sep 25, 2009
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shouldn't we first establish where the human ends and the superhuman starts ?

i know scienceofsport guys tried to give it a rational glance in the past - wouldn't be surprised if they get back to the very theme soon.

as too contador's performances as an indicator of anything, i can only repeat what i said before, his relative superiority amounts to dominance and is likely a mix of several factors where excluding talent and chemistry would be foolish.
 
luckyboy said:
Substitute Contador's name here for Nibali, Scarponi, Menchov, Rodriguez, Basso, Andy, Sanchez etc..... We don't know the clean level of any of these riders.


You are right, we don´t know, we can only speculate. I dont believe dirty-clean dichotomy. I think that there are several levels of dirty - some take more, some have better programs, some have more money (to buy better programs), some are better responders etc. I believe that Contador is amongst those, who are "dirtier".
 
hrotha said:
I'm not avoiding the question per se. I was just replying to Berzin because his hypocrisy strikes me as particularly notable.

You're making me out to be the issue here for whatever reason.

The camps have definitely taken sides on this one. If you hate Armstrong and like Contador, you are a hypocrite.

If you like Armstrong then anyone who likes Contador is a hypocrite, because one must dislike them both for the same reasons.

The separate circumstances both riders find themselves in couldn't be any different. Five millionths of a percentage of clenbutarol does not a doping offense make.

However it found it's way into his system, it is much different then what Armstrong is accused of. If you can't see that it's only because you have an axe to grind. Admit it and maybe it would clarify your stance. I've made my points perfectly clear.

This has been argued back and forth ad nauseum. If and when Contador is found guilty of an offense, he'll get sanctioned. That's out of my hands.

As for any clouds of suspicion hovering over Contador, it will be clarified when his hearing comes up.

As it is now, he won the Giro and will be at the starting line for the Tour, and goes in as the odds-on favorite, like it or not.
 
You know perfectly well it's not contaminated meat vs. willful ingestion of clen, but rather contaminated meat vs. full program, including clen and blood transfusions. You also know perfectly well there's no threshold for clen so it does make a doping offense. So yeah, I guess you're proving my point.
 
May 18, 2009
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hrotha said:
You know perfectly well it's not contaminated meat vs. willful ingestion of clen, but rather contaminated meat vs. full program, including clen and blood transfusions. You also know perfectly well there's no threshold for clen so it does make a doping offense. So yeah, I guess you're proving my point.

Yeah, that is the point I am stuck on. Zero threshold for clen. We can debate all day whether the rule should be that way (I don't), but we cannot debate what the rule states. He broke the rule. Period. How he wins an appeal is beyond me, and this whole delay fiasco going on now is a joke and a bunch of BS. Hell engineering companies can design a fricking refinery quicker than this BS to play out.

On topic, camel toe upthread questioned whether he was clean in the 2010 TdF. He looked very human last year, nothing like he looked in this giro. The top 4 were within 4 minutes of eachother. I think he got clen from a transfusion so why the poor performance?

As I alluded to upthread, we will never know if somebody wins clean. Threads like this are a circle jerk because of that. Cynicism in en vogue in the clinic.
 
hrotha said:
You know perfectly well it's not contaminated meat vs. willful ingestion of clen, but rather contaminated meat vs. full program, including clen and blood transfusions. You also know perfectly well there's no threshold for clen so it does make a doping offense. So yeah, I guess you're proving my point.

Were all the test samples taken from all the riders during the Tour taken to the same lab for the same tests?

Is the test for plasticizers approved? Were any other samples tested by the same lab for the same issue?

Answer these questions and maybe you'll see that your arguments holds no water whatsoever.
 
Berzin said:
Were all the test samples taken from all the riders during the Tour taken to the same lab for the same tests?

Is the test for plasticizers approved? Were any other samples tested by the same lab for the same issue?

Answer these questions and maybe you'll see that your arguments holds no water whatsoever.
1. No. Has nothing to do with Contador himself. Irrelevant.
2. Not yet. I wasn't talking about the plasticizers, but about the fact that the only reasonable way the clen got into his system, meat contamination aside, is a blood transfusion.

So yeah.
 
python said:
shouldn't we first establish where the human ends and the superhuman starts ?

i know scienceofsport guys tried to give it a rational glance in the past - wouldn't be surprised if they get back to the very theme soon.

as too contador's performances as an indicator of anything, i can only repeat what i said before, his relative superiority amounts to dominance and is likely a mix of several factors where excluding talent and chemistry would be foolish.

Exactly. That's what I'm trying to figure out. What really are the the limits of clean cycling? At what point do we say, wait, this is implausible?

People have tossed around the 6 W/kg as the threshold. Is there a time associated with that. Can a clean cyclist hold this for 20 minutes? 30?

I think these are difficult questions to answer, though, as python mentions, the scienceofsport people have tried. However, why would Contador risk everything to dope at this event? If he is caught, it would be an absolute disaster for him and the sport.
 
Aug 12, 2009
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Are the GC guys clean? No, but they are cleaner. Any rider in the top five from the 2007 Tour or Giro would have won this years Giro, no sweat. My point earlier, was when riders who have been heavily doped, drop off the juice and can only safely (not get caught) take miniscule amounts compared to their past, they will get slower. The augmented level of power they are capable drops. Doping benefits are not uniform. Some people get more benefits than others.

What happened last year? All of RadioShack were made to look normal, even clean. Why? Because last year cycling really started to look cleaner. Thus it makes a lot of sense to me and doesn't come as a shock that Contador is better than the other GC guys. If he can get away with an extra level of doping, others certainly have the means to do so as well, alas, he still wins? Typical catch 22 situation. Damned if you do, damned if you don't.

Of course power outputs tell a great deal, but we can tell they are significantly slower than previous years. Oddly enough though, there are still gaps between various riders, even though everyone's overall times are down. Why? It's always happened, skill and maximal physical output follows a bell curve, regardless of clean or doped. The maximal has dropped, but one or two guys will always be several standard deviations to the right of the mean. Those guys will always be questioned, sometimes incorrectly, other times justifiably.

Power outputs tell a great deal. Over 6.3 W/kg, do that for more than 10 to 15 minutes without huffing and puffing and you are clearly juicing. Long climbs, 30 to 40 minutes, you do over 6.1 W/kg, you are also juicing. Take the Shack last year, Chris Horner dropped some power figures for when LA crashed at the Tour. Apparently they were doing 5.9 W/kg and the time gap to the peloton remained the same. We later found out, that was because The Sorensens were setting the highest overall power output for the entire Tour, a pace that cracked everyone bar Contador and Schleck. I think from memory it was around 430W for 6 minutes.

As I said at the start of this reply, go back 3 or 4 years and take any top 5 GT GC rider from those years and transport them through time and put them in the same form against todays peloton, AC today. They'd beat him thoroughly. That doesn't mean he's clean, but he is cleaner. It's about perspective and remembering what has been done and questioning it's relevance to today. Does it show something useful? Take all the doped riders caught, Sella and Di Luca. They're normal now. LA looked normal last year. Then question why? They have many reasons to not dope. What happens when they don't dope or tone it down? They get closer to their natural base level, of which there was early career evidence they were not GC riders, hence their lack of current GC status. I need only look at Cadel Evans this season and last winning a lot more to realise something has changed. I consider him like AC to be one of the few exceptionally gifted natural talents, guys who always rise to the top, be it cleaner but still doping peloton, or uber doped peloton. In a cleaner peloton, augmented lesser talented riders can no longer sneak wins, hence the more naturally gifted win more often. I expect to see a lot more of this happening, especially when Valverde returns next year.
 
Nov 9, 2010
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Moose McKnuckles said:
Exactly. That's what I'm trying to figure out. What really are the the limits of clean cycling? At what point do we say, wait, this is implausible?

People have tossed around the 6 W/kg as the threshold. Is there a time associated with that. Can a clean cyclist hold this for 20 minutes? 30?

I think these are difficult questions to answer, though, as python mentions, the scienceofsport people have tried. However, why would Contador risk everything to dope at this event? If he is caught, it would be an absolute disaster for him and the sport.

Simply because, he has to. First, if he's going to be fresh for the tour, he has to dope. Even if he's just doing some consistent wheelsucking until the final kilometers in the mountain stages. And secondly, he's not risking anything by doing some blooddoping epo mixture, especially not with the father of the passport program guiding his doses.
 
biopass said:
Simply because, he has to. First, if he's going to be fresh for the tour, he has to dope. Even if he's just doing some consistent wheelsucking until the final kilometers in the mountain stages. And secondly, he's not risking anything by doing some blooddoping epo mixture, especially not with the father of the passport program guiding his doses.

That is a terrible analysis. I'm sorry. I'm not trying to be mean here, but I think this discussion is a bit above your pay grade.
 
ChrisE said:
On topic, camel toe upthread questioned whether he was clean in the 2010 TdF. He looked very human last year, nothing like he looked in this giro. The top 4 were within 4 minutes of eachother. I think he got clen from a transfusion so why the poor performance?

As I alluded to upthread, we will never know if somebody wins clean. Threads like this are a circle jerk because of that. Cynicism in en vogue in the clinic.

Its very clear though that while doping plays a huge part, natural talent and ability also plays just as big a part.

That Contador can win when he is clearly off his best is a tribute to his natural talent. Yeah he was more than likely on a program - but its just as likely that so are the others. The differences in performance can just as easily be attributed to actual ability as to the difference in the program.

In the Giro - yes AC is probably on something .... but so was Scarponi and Nibali, and almost certainly Menchov .... just that Contador has more talent to work from.
 
Von Mises said:
You are right, we don´t know, we can only speculate. I dont believe dirty-clean dichotomy. I think that there are several levels of dirty - some take more, some have better programs, some have more money (to buy better programs), some are better responders etc. I believe that Contador is amongst those, who are "dirtier".

No offence, but excuse me? You dope or you don't. Black and white. One is cheating. One is righteous, legal and defensible.

There are no shades of grey in doping.
 
May 14, 2010
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TubularBills said:
No offence, but excuse me? You dope or you don't. Black and white. One is cheating. One is righteous, legal and defensible.

There are no shades of grey in doping.

The way I read his post, I think Von Mises is saying he doesn't believe in the clean/dirty dichotomy because none of them is completely clean. I'm not entirely sure I buy that, but on the other hand it's hard to know how a totally clean rider could even finish this year's Giro (within the time limit), much less contend for a placing, given the parcours.
 
Moose McKnuckles said:
Exactly. That's what I'm trying to figure out. What really are the the limits of clean cycling? At what point do we say, wait, this is implausible?

People have tossed around the 6 W/kg as the threshold. Is there a time associated with that. Can a clean cyclist hold this for 20 minutes? 30?

I think these are difficult questions to answer, though, as python mentions, the scienceofsport people have tried. However, why would Contador risk everything to dope at this event? If he is caught, it would be an absolute disaster for him and the sport.
Every doper risks everything to dope at a particular event, but they know if they do things right they won't get caught. Increased surveillance only means you can't afford to be careless. Rebellin said that he didn't dope and that he'd have to be a fool to use EPO because it was detectable, and why would he risk everything like that? Some people defended Beltrán questioning why he'd risk everything by doping at the end of his career. Armstrong wasn't the most tested athlete in the history of ever, but as the leader of the Tour he was subject to many tests he knew were coming. Why'd he risk everything by doping when he knew he was going to be tested?

Simple: because the tests can be beaten quite easily if you know how. And if you're a pro rider who dopes, you know how.
 

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