Super-human performances from Contador at Giro?

[I Watch Cycling In July]

Every doper risks everything to dope at a particular event, but they know if they do things right they won't get caught. Increased surveillance only means you can't afford to be careless. Rebellin said that he didn't dope and that he'd have to be a fool to use EPO because it was detectable, and why would he risk everything like that? Some people defended Beltrán questioning why he'd risk everything by doping at the end of his career. Armstrong wasn't the most tested athlete in the history of ever, but as the leader of the Tour he was subject to many tests he knew were coming. Why'd he risk everything by doping when he knew he was going to be tested?

Simple: because the tests can be beaten quite easily if you know how. And if you're a pro rider who dopes, you know how.

Yes. Also, I think pro cyclists tend to be risk takers by nature.

Any pro sports is at best an uncertain career path and cycling has a high risk of injury. So the sport self selects risk takers; it follows that pro cyclists are likely to chose high risk doping strategies.

 

[VeloCity]

On topic, camel toe upthread questioned whether he was clean in the 2010 TdF. He looked very human last year, nothing like he looked in this giro. The top 4 were within 4 minutes of eachother. I think he got clen from a transfusion so why the poor performance?

Probably just not on tip-top form. Armstrong looked very human (relatively speaking) in the 2003 Tour, Indurain struggled in '96, Ullrich had that bad day in the '98 Tour, Pantani wasn't "Pantani" in any number of Tours, same with Heras, etc - even dopers have off days or just can't find their rhythm or whatever.

imo the Giro suits Contador's style of riding more so than the Tour, so perhaps that also comes into play, kind of like how Heras or Pantani rode so well at the the Vuelta and Giro respectively but were generally non-factors at the Tour.

 

[DirtyWorks]

Bzzt. Try Again

The guy was in the pink jersey for thirteen days, guaranteeing anti-doping tests. If they did rest days, they've probably got at least fifteen days straight. ... WADA is desperate to win, so I'd imagine his samples are being tested for everything, and the guys with the fine tooth combs are going over his Bio Passport....


But he dominated. He was at a different level from Nibali & Scarponi.

How many different times does this type of reasoning have to get shot down? Lance Armstrong's lack of positives and Marion Jones' fantastical career of zero positives should be enough of a clue to distrust Pharmador's win.

Is the guy a great Grand Tour racer? Apparently, yes. Is he a clean Grand Tour racer? Most likely, no. It seems to me the BioPassport is doing it's job of keeping the racers in obvious human limits of power output. According to Pat and Hein, that means doping is eliminated!

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

How many different times does this type of reasoning have to get shot down? Lance Armstrong's lack of positives and Marion Jones' fantastical career of zero positives should be enough of a clue to distrust Pharmador's win.

Is the guy a great Grand Tour racer? Apparently, yes. Is he a clean Grand Tour racer? Most likely, no. It seems to me the BioPassport is doing it's job of keeping the racers in obvious human limits of power output. According to Pat and Hein, that means doping is eliminated!

If tests are unreliable and there is no available measurement of the limits of clean performance, what is the barometer of clean racing? French citizenship? What?

 

[saganftw]

If tests are unreliable and there is no available measurement of the limits of clean performance, what is the barometer of clean racing? French citizenship? What?

if tests are really unreliable that would make the whole sport just comedy and huge financial loss,because you wont be able determine who is doper and who is not,i guess even if doping agencies know u cant trust tests 100% they will never ever ever tell that to public...they just bust some random cyclists and few stars to make an illusion of trying

 

[DirtyWorks]

If tests are unreliable and there is no available measurement of the limits of clean performance, what is the barometer of clean racing? French citizenship? What?

Be careful about the term 'unreliable.' It's more the case the tests are a few years behind the latest doping protocol rather than the tests themselves.

When the UCI stops meddling in doping enforcement, I'd argue the basics are there.
-bio-passport
-retroactive samples testing

Between those two, I think you've instilled enough disincentive to dope. That's assuming retro-sample positives would be enforced.

 

[Aguirre]

this clinic is an insult to intelligence... if we question every single win in the clinic

I can come with dozens of examples of victories with more or same authority that AC's, they were in dope?
Bugno, Chioccioli, Indurain, Berzin, Rominger, Tonkov, Pantani, Simoni, Cunego, Basso, Di Luca...


then I come with more tight results, were they not in dope?

Hampsten, Fignon, Gotti, Garzelli, Savoldelli, Menchov, Contador 08...

poor thinking, guys, stop this thread

 

[Aguirre]

No offence, but excuse me? You dope or you don't. Black and white. One is cheating. One is righteous, legal and defensible.

There are no shades of grey in doping.

poor thinking again, specially in doping there are grey shades, every time there is a law, there is a dispute about the limits of the same law!!!!!

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

Ok, so where does that leave us?

What evidence do we have that Contador doped at this Giro?

Tests? Nothing so far.
Performance? Nothing superhuman that I have seen noted.

 

[DirtyWorks]

Bzzzt. Wrong.

this clinic is an insult to intelligence... if we question every single win in the clinic

I can come with dozens of examples of victories with more or same authority that AC's, they were in dope?
Bugno, Chioccioli, Indurain, Berzin, Rominger, Tonkov, Pantani, Simoni, Cunego, Basso, Di Luca...


then I come with more tight results, were they not in dope?

Hampsten, Fignon, Gotti, Garzelli, Savoldelli, Menchov, Contador 08...

poor thinking, guys, stop this thread

Nowhere in your list of winners do you distinguish between the critical pre-EPO era and the current. EPO and the permutations that followed permanently changed the game such that Hampsten (referred as a 'clean' win) would turn to pack fodder.

While I agree that every thread started about one rider or another in 2011 is not really useful, Grand Tours are the most likely events where a doped performance can be distinguished from clean.

As for the vigorous defense of shades of grey in rules, you have changed the scope of the argument to make your point. TubularBills is likely describing a cheat and liar tends who creatively challenge the limit of rules to gain an edge. You are rewarding the cheats by seriously considering creative ways around a rule.

Moose,

We've can't rely on tests because the test process is loaded with ways to supress positives. This includes the race Director forbidding testing for CERA in 2008.

What we have is a frankly amazing performance by the winner at the knife's edge of widely held ideas about human performance. Said winner has previously tested positive, and has a past of working on teams with strong doping pasts. Damning inferences.

Also keep in mind the current thinking is that the BioPassport establishes limits on PED use such that the emphasis in doping has moved onto recovery improvement, so as to indirectly increase Watts output versus a clean rider over the entire Grand Tour.

 

[Escarabajo]

Ok, so where does that leave us?

What evidence do we have that Contador doped at this Giro?

Tests? Nothing so far.
Performance? Nothing superhuman that I have seen noted.

No proof. Only speculations and indirect accusations.

To me it was the steady consistency. Too much consistency at high performance.

 

[Benotti69]

No proof. Only speculations and indirect accusations.

To me it was the steady consistency. Too much consistency at high performance.....

......plus his 'ability' to just drop Scarponi, Nibali et al at will. The exception was Rujano on Etna till the last km, but all others he left for dead when he wanted.

 

[Captain_Obvious]

this clinic is an insult to intelligence...

These forums are an insult to intelligence and the sport.

 

[Publicus]

I went back and took a look at where AC gained his time relative to Nibbles (N) and Scarponi (S). Here are the stages:

Stage 3: 2" (both N &S) from sprint bonus
Stage 8: 17" (both N & S) from 5 second [incl. 12 seconds bonus]
Stage 9: 1'10 (N), 1'27 (S) [incl. 20 seconds bonus]
stage 13: 1'48 (both N&S) [incl. 12 seconds bonus]
Stage 14: 11' (N) and 50" (S) [incl 12 seconds bonus (N also received 8)]
Stage 15: 14' (S) and 1'51 (N) [incl. 8 seconds bonus]
Stage 16: 34" (N) and 38" (S)
Stage 19: 7" (N) and 20" (S) [incl. 12 sec bonus (N also received 8")]
Stage 20: 21" (N)
Stage 21: 42" (N) and 52" (S)

If my math is right, 1'18" of his time gains over Scarponi were purely from bonuses (1'10" over Nibbles). Actual time gains, then would be 4'54 (S) and 5'46. Given AC's superiority over both in the mountains and the TT, I don't find this particularly remarkable. Plus AC gained most of his time on two of the less steep (relatively speaking) stages (Stage 9 and Stage 13, where he finished with Rujano) and in the two TTs (1'16" (N) and 1'30 (S)).

Again, if my math is correct.

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

Since when are Scarponi and Nibali top GC contenders? You guys tell me, because I haven't seen it. What has Scarponi won? Nibali won the Vuelta last year. Great. What else?

People are acting as though Scarponi and Nibali are Ullrich and Pantani. Good grief. So, here we have a 5-time GT winner dropping guys who have won 1 GT between them. This has somehow morphed into a superhuman accomplishment. WTF?

 

[The Hitch]

Since when are Scarponi and Nibali top GC contenders? You guys tell me, because I haven't seen it. What has Scarponi won? Nibali won the Vuelta last year. Great. What else?

People are acting as though Scarponi and Nibali are Ullrich and Pantani. Good grief. So, here we have a 5-time GT winner dropping guys who have won 1 GT between them. This has somehow morphed into a superhuman accomplishment. WTF?

They are not Ullrich and Pantani but they are as good as anyone other than Andy Schleck.
They are very much top gt contenders.

Scarponi had a 2 year ban but then came back to win 2 stages in the Giro, then the next year win the queen stage and miss out on 2nd only due to the weakness of his team. He stayed with or beat Basso everywhere other than Monte Zoncolan so he proved himself to be a top GC contender.

Nibali only won the Vuelta but how many gts have Cadel Evans, Samuel Sanchez, Robert Gesink, even Andy Schleck won.
Nibali came 7th in the 2009 Tour, only 3 minutes away from 2nd place Andy Schleck while 5 minutes ahead of next best place CVV. That was before his big step up.

Then he showed in the 2010 Giro that he really was a top gt contender, outclimbing Cadel Evans for example.

Basso or Samu Sanchez may be a minute better but these are also people into which Contador can put 5 minutes.

And who else is there?

Only Andy Schleck.

And lets not forget that Menchov was there. Maybe he was off form, or maybe Scarponi and Nibali who have been improving over the last few years have surpassed him.

 

[ManInFull]

Ok, so where does that leave us?

What evidence do we have that Contador doped at this Giro?

Tests? Nothing so far.
Performance? Nothing superhuman that I have seen noted.

I agree. But, unfortunately, every victory will now be questioned. Do we have a list of riders who can win and not be bashed in The Clinic for doping?

 

[rata de sentina]

Do you think Basso was riding clean last year? How would you compare the 2010 field with 2011? Is Contador better than Basso?

 

[scribe]

I agree. But, unfortunately, every victory will now be questioned. Do we have a list of riders who can win and not be bashed in The Clinic for doping?

Now that Lance is retired? No way. They are all doped to the gills.

 

[scribe]

Since when are Scarponi and Nibali top GC contenders? You guys tell me, because I haven't seen it. What has Scarponi won? Nibali won the Vuelta last year. Great. What else?

People are acting as though Scarponi and Nibali are Ullrich and Pantani. Good grief. So, here we have a 5-time GT winner dropping guys who have won 1 GT between them. This has somehow morphed into a superhuman accomplishment. WTF?

Contador is so clean, you could filter Fiji water through his cycling shorts.

 

[veganrob]

Since when are Scarponi and Nibali top GC contenders? You guys tell me, because I haven't seen it. What has Scarponi won? Nibali won the Vuelta last year. Great. What else?

People are acting as though Scarponi and Nibali are Ullrich and Pantani. Good grief. So, here we have a 5-time GT winner dropping guys who have won 1 GT between them. This has somehow morphed into a superhuman accomplishment. WTF?

Totally agree with you here. Superhuman effort. What ? Did I miss something. Building up Scarponi, Nibali, Menchov , Rujano, Sastre, who am I missing, to be a real challenge to AC is ridiculous.
That is Alberto. Get used it. He is simply better than the rest.

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

They are not Ullrich and Pantani but they are as good as anyone other than Andy Schleck.
They are very much top gt contenders.

Scarponi had a 2 year ban but then came back to win 2 stages in the Giro, then the next year win the queen stage and miss out on 2nd only due to the weakness of his team. He stayed with or beat Basso everywhere other than Monte Zoncolan so he proved himself to be a top GC contender.

Nibali only won the Vuelta but how many gts have Cadel Evans, Samuel Sanchez, Robert Gesink, even Andy Schleck won.
Nibali came 7th in the 2009 Tour, only 3 minutes away from 2nd place Andy Schleck while 5 minutes ahead of next best place CVV. That was before his big step up.

Then he showed in the 2010 Giro that he really was a top gt contender, outclimbing Cadel Evans for example.

Basso or Samu Sanchez may be a minute better but these are also people into which Contador can put 5 minutes.

And who else is there?

Only Andy Schleck.

And lets not forget that Menchov was there. Maybe he was off form, or maybe Scarponi and Nibali who have been improving over the last few years have surpassed him.

I disagree with you on several points.

First, the fact that Scarponi stayed with Basso last year except one or two stages doesn't mean he's automatically a GC contender. Is Mosquera a GC contender always? Scarponi has ONE podium finish (this Giro) in his GT career. He's 32. I don't buy the claim that he's a serious challenge to Contandor. Not one bit.

Let's look at Nibali. I agree he may be a GC contender in a GT. He has two podium finishes including one victory, last year's Vuelta. He has done nothing at the Tour, though he's young. However, Contador is two years older and has 6 Grand Tours. Contador is a better climber and a better time trialist.

So, why is it surprising that Contador beats these guys? I just don't see it. Scarponi and Nibali are good, but they're not at the level of Contador and Schleck. So, if Contador beats them by 6 minutes, I don't think it's a shock at all.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Since when are Scarponi and Nibali top GC contenders?

Over the last four Grand Tours, they have accumulated a win and a third place (Nibali) and a second and a fourth place (Scarponi).

They are by definition top GC contenders.

Riders who have stood on the top step of a GC podium in the last 2 years: Contador, Basso, Nibali, Valverde.
Riders who have stood on one of the top two steps: Contador, Basso, Nibali, Valverde, Schleck, Scarponi, Sanchez.
Riders who have finished in the top four more than once: Contador, Basso, Nibali, Schleck, Scarponi, Sanchez.

A total of seven guys, including Contador himself, appear in any of those categories. And one of them is suspended.

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

Over the last four Grand Tours, they have accumulated a win and a third place (Nibali) and a second and a fourth place (Scarponi).

They are by definition top GC contenders.

Oh, stop that nonsense. You're only talking about two Giros and last year's Vuelta. Neither of them rode the Tour. And two of those places were just last week in the Giro behind Contador.

These guys are top GC contenders if Contador and Andy Schleck are not racing. If they are they're maybe contenders for the final place on the podium.

I hope that you are not seriously claiming that their combined ONE Grand Tour suddenly makes them serious rivals to Contandor, who has six by himself.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Oh, stop that nonsense. You're only talking about two Giros and last year's Vuelta.

Yes. Two of the three Grand Tours.

No, neither of them are close to Contador's level. But a definition of "top GC contender" which limits itself to Contador doesn't tell us very much. After Schleck, these are the sort of dudes you are dealing with - I really don't think there's a chasm between any of the next eight or so guys. These lads or Samuel Sanchez or Cadel Evans or Denis Menchov or Igor Anton or whoever are your top CG contenders.