Super-human performances from Contador at Giro?

[Von Mises]

No offence, but excuse me? You dope or you don't. Black and white. One is cheating. One is righteous, legal and defensible.

There are no shades of grey in doping.

I was posting in the context of performances. I do not know who is dirty and who is clean, I also dont know what are exact doping programs, but I am pretty sure that these programs are not identical, and so are not benefits identical.

I dont buy this argument that Contador is so much more naturally gifted than all others. If you look at his results before 2007 (before joining Bruyneel) and after that, you see enormous jump. His results before Bruyneel were promising and showed, but there are at least 20 guys who have same or even better palmares than Contador at the same age.

 

[The Hitch]

I disagree with you on several points.

First, the fact that Scarponi stayed with Basso last year except one or two stages doesn't mean he's automatically a GC contender. Is Mosquera a GC contender always? Scarponi has ONE podium finish (this Giro) in his GT career. He's 32. I don't buy the claim that he's a serious challenge to Contandor. Not one bit.

Let's look at Nibali. I agree he may be a GC contender in a GT. He has two podium finishes including one victory, last year's Vuelta. He has done nothing at the Tour, though he's young. However, Contador is two years older and has 6 Grand Tours. Contador is a better climber and a better time trialist.

So, why is it surprising that Contador beats these guys? I just don't see it. Scarponi and Nibali are good, but they're not at the level of Contador and Schleck. So, if Contador beats them by 6 minutes, I don't think it's a shock at all.

Oh, stop that nonsense. You're only talking about two Giros and last year's Vuelta. Neither of them rode the Tour. And two of those places were just last week in the Giro behind Contador.

These guys are top GC contenders if Contador and Andy Schleck are not racing. If they are they're maybe contenders for the final place on the podium.

I hope that you are not seriously claiming that their combined ONE Grand Tour suddenly makes them serious rivals to Contandor, who has six by himself.

So you are saying that only Contador and Schleck are top gt contenders.

There is no one else.

 

[veganrob]

In the races AC and AS are in they have to be considered heavy favorites.

 

[Publicus]

Yes. Two of the three Grand Tours.

No, neither of them are close to Contador's level. But a definition of "top GC contender" which limits itself to Contador doesn't tell us very much. After Schleck, these are the sort of dudes you are dealing with - I really don't think there's a chasm between any of the next eight or so guys. These lads or Samuel Sanchez or Cadel Evans or Denis Menchov or Igor Anton or whoever are your top CG contenders.

I think this is the point. Neither of them (or the other GC candidates at the Giro) are on AC's level. Full stop. Sure they are two of the top GC candidates, but that says nothing about their abilities vis-a-vis Contador. That's why I didn't find his performance superhuman. Did anyone seriously think Nibali could drop Contador in the mountains? Or Scarponi could match him in a ITT? Menchov was always the one that folks thought had a chance to beat AC, but again, in the mountains, Menchov has never been his equal. It is only in the time trials where Menchov has bested him that he has gained any time and this past Giro was woefully light on flat ITT kilometers. JRod is a horrible time trialist and only adequate in the grand tour mountains (he does great on the short, steep stuff). Anton excellent in the mountains, woeful in the ITT.

Andy Schleck, at this point, is the only real threat to AC prevailing in any GT he enters other than AC himself.

 

[rickshaw]

well.... duh!

This forum is still full of MORONS!

you'd have to be pretty much a moron NOT to expect that....

don't expect much change as long as discussions are personality driven.

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

So you are saying that only Contador and Schleck are top gt contenders.

There is no one else.

If there is no one else, then why is it superhuman when Contador beats the others handily?

 

[saganftw]

If there is no one else, then why is it superhuman when Contador beats the others handily?

its the fashion in which he beats the others

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

its the fashion in which he beats the others

Ok, fair enough. What is that fashion?

In two of his TdF wins, he won by 23 and 39 seconds. In his first Giro he beat Ricco by less than 2 minutes. In his Vuelta win, he beat Leipheimer by 46 seconds.

So, that's 4 grand tours where he won by less than 2 minutes, 3 by less than 1.
His only two "dominant" wins were the 2009 Tour and this year's Giro.

He's looked very mortal at times, and frankly, I think people are placing some undue emphasis on the dominance with which he won this year's Giro.

 

[saganftw]

Ok, fair enough. What is that fashion?

In two of his TdF wins, he won by 23 and 39 seconds. In his first Giro he beat Ricco by less than 2 minutes. In his Vuelta win, he beat Leipheimer by 46 seconds.

So, that's 4 grand tours where he won by less than 2 minutes, 3 by less than 1.
His only two "dominant" wins were the 2009 Tour and this year's Giro.

He's looked very mortal at times, and frankly, I think people are placing some undue emphasis on the dominance with which he won this year's Giro.

oh i thought this thread is about superhuman performance at this years giro,so i agree most of his victories are not superhuman

however in giro he gifted 2 stages,final TT (we can argue about that,i dont think he was goin 100%) and zoncolan (also arguable)

won by over 6 minutes and actually never seemed to be in trouble,i believe he could have won by 10+ mins if he wanted to and also he could take all the jerseys - that sounds to me like superhuman AND he will most likely ride TdF on top of that

as far as his other victories they are superhuman not because he crushed his opponents,but because he is winning so much there is no other human capable of same results

i also have always feeling when im watching contador (in GTs) that there is no way he could be beaten (the only other riders i had the same feeling watching them was LA and indurain in TT),its that unbelievable consistency,smart riding...its just too good to be true,i think he is very talented natural and in clinic issues

 

[The Hitch]

If there is no one else, then why is it superhuman when Contador beats the others handily?

I dont know. I never said that Contador was or wasnt superhuman, rather just corrected people when they said the Giro lineup was weak.

The Giro lineup was as strong as the Tour lineup sans Andy Schleck, and in my eyes "top gt contender" doesnt just reffer to the 2 best climbers in the world.

 

[mastersracer]

Ferrari published VAMs for the nevegel ITT. Granted it was the last week of a hard tour, but nothing particularly superhuman about them (compared to other tours).

ONTADOR = 20’58”; 1717 m/h; 6.13 w/kg
RUJANO = 21’32”; 1674 m/h; 5.98 w/kg; - 2.5% (difference from Contador)
SCARPONI = 21’40”; 1662 m/h; 5.93 w/kg; - 3.3%
MENCHOV = 21’42”; 1660 m/h; 5.92 w/kg; - 3.5%
NIBALI = 21’45”; 1655 m/h; 5.91 w/kg; - 3.7%
GARZELLI = 21’52”; 1647 m/h; 5.88 w/kg; - 4.2%
KREUZIGER = 21’53”; 1645 m/h; 5.87 w/kg; - 4.3%
GADRET = 22’05”; 1628 m/h; 5.81 w/kg; - 5.4%

 

[Le breton]

Ferrari published VAMs for the nevegel ITT. Granted it was the last week of a hard tour, but nothing particularly superhuman about them (compared to other tours).

ONTADOR = 20’58”; 1717 m/h; 6.13 w/kg
RUJANO = 21’32”; 1674 m/h; 5.98 w/kg; - 2.5% (difference from Contador)
SCARPONI = 21’40”; 1662 m/h; 5.93 w/kg; - 3.3%
MENCHOV = 21’42”; 1660 m/h; 5.92 w/kg; - 3.5%
NIBALI = 21’45”; 1655 m/h; 5.91 w/kg; - 3.7%
GARZELLI = 21’52”; 1647 m/h; 5.88 w/kg; - 4.2%
KREUZIGER = 21’53”; 1645 m/h; 5.87 w/kg; - 4.3%
GADRET = 22’05”; 1628 m/h; 5.81 w/kg; - 5.4%

This is discussed at length on another thread, which you could easily have found.
http://forum.cyclingnews.com/showthread.php?t=8839&page=22

As you would expect from lazy Ferrari he didn't take into account the profile of that climb, ending up with not very meaningful results.
Here is my own calculation over the same stretch, taking into account the influence of the false flat section over the final result .

Over the last 7000m, there are 2 sections which are nearly flat
1) from -1300meters to -1000m @ 2.8%
2) from -1000m. to -400m.@ 0.8%

To do a proper power estimate for the remainder of the climb, we need to remove those bits, 900m. in total.

Assuming Contador reduced his power a few% to 380 watts on those easier stretches, and adopted a lower crouched position (CdA ~0.32 m^2) he needed 30.5 s for section 1) and 50.5 s for section 2)

So for the remainder of the climb, ie for 7300-900 = 6400meters
with a total elevation of 600-13m = 587 meters (9.17%)

he needed 20:58 - 1:21 = 19:38 = 1178s.

ave. speed = 5.433 m/s

taking air density = 1.09

CdA = 0.375 m^2

Crr = 0.004

We end up with 390 watts.

Add 2.5% for transmission losses

390 + 2.5% = 400 watts

ie 400 / 62 = 6.45 watts /kg.

For an all out 20-30 minute effort after 1 day of rest.

In other words, we are at a performance level implying that this post does not need to be in the clinic.

Of course it also seems to imply that past performances were out of this world.

 

[mastersracer]

Thanks for the updated/improved estimates. My point with the Ferrari estimates was also the relative numbers with other riders that don't suggest a particularly superhuman effort on any rider's part (as you suggest with your estimates). By the way, I don't think there's anything particularly wrong with redundancies across threads - this thread was about whether Contador's performance at the Giro was superhuman - VAM estimates are relevant here too.

 

[saganftw]

ie 400 / 62 = 6.45 watts /kg.

this number doesnt say anything to me

i d like to see contadors cycling computer numbers,actually it should be part of passport me thinks

 

[Publicus]

this number doesnt say anything to me

i d like to see contadors cycling computer numbers,actually it should be part of passport me thinks

I have to think that's where this is headed. The UCI (or whatever independent body inherits the testing and disciplinary function from UCI) should collect this information--regularly--and included it as part of the bio-passport. It's just one more piece of information to assess and add context to any cyclist's performance.

 

[Merckx index]

ie 400 / 62 = 6.45 watts /kg.

For an all out 20-30 minute effort after 1 day of rest.

In other words, we are at a performance level implying that this post does not need to be in the clinic.

I’m wondering what performance level would rate the clinic in your opinion. 6.75? 7.0? Would 6.45 be enough if it were a longer ride? Or if it came at the end of a long stage? Or not following a rest day?

In another thread, you estimated from GL’s VO2 max that he might attain as much as 6.8 watts/kg in a lab, fully rested, and compared this what he said he and Hinault typically did on ADH in the Tour, around 5.8. GL attributed this to a decrease in HT over the course of the Tour. Regardless of whether there was a rest day, I would assume that any decline in HT Bert hypothetically experienced during the Giro would still for the most part be present after a single rest day. OTOH, GL was also quoted as saying he put out perhaps 6.35 watts/kg in the final ITT in 89 (I’m going on the same assumption you used of 67 kg body weight, but otherwise just accepting his numbers). This was an effort made over a slightly shorter time, but otherwise it’s not really clear why the greater power, assuming the calculations behind it are valid (I didn’t bother to go through and check them).

These considerations, it seems to me, puts Bert’s recent numbers in a borderline area. I certainly wouldn’t look at them and say, no way, had to be doping. But I also wouldn’t look at them and say, definitely not doping. Particularly when we have reason to believe that blood doping now may involve relatively small infusions that might raise HT only a portion of the 10-15% decline that GL estimated would occur during the Tour. With weather and other factors always introducing some error into power calculations, I think it will always be very difficult to make a firm conclusion for and against doping using these numbers.

Oh, and in response to your question in that thread, leB, it was post 33 in the cited thread.

 

[Polish]

Assuming Contador reduced his power a few% to 380 watts on those easier stretches, and adopted a lower crouched position (CdA ~0.32 m^2) he needed 30.5 s for section 1) and 50.5 s for section 2)

So for the remainder of the climb, ie for 7300-900 = 6400meters
with a total elevation of 600-13m = 587 meters (9.17%)

he needed 20:58 - 1:21 = 19:38 = 1178s.

ave. speed = 5.433 m/s

taking air density = 1.09

CdA = 0.375 m^2

Crr = 0.004

We end up with 390 watts.

Add 2.5% for transmission losses

390 + 2.5% = 400 watts

ie 400 / 62 = 6.45 watts /kg.

For an all out 20-30 minute effort after 1 day of rest.

]

I had a question on that last bit - an "all out effort"
How do you know if it was an all out effort?

Riders, and more importantly their coaches & dr's, realize there are armies of Sports Scientists and Amateur Astronomers searching the races for evidence of extra-terrestial performances.
Number crunching and calculating.

Would it not make sense for a rider to "dose their efforts" to ensure they do not set off any alarms?
Could a world-class coach know real time when a rider was going over the line? Approaching a verbier limit?

And don't let the rider's expressions fool you.
Exertion can be faked.
Pretend to be in the pain cave.

Did Alberto even seem to be in the pain cave?

Anyway, how would your excellent analysis look if you assume Alberto was only at 90% of his limit? 80%? 70% yikes?

 

[saganftw]

I had a question on that last bit - an "all out effort"
How do you know if it was an all out effort?

Riders, and more importantly their coaches & dr's, realize there are armies of Sports Scientists and Amateur Astronomers searching the races for evidence of extra-terrestial performances.
Number crunching and calculating.

Would it not make sense for a rider to "dose their efforts" to ensure they do not set off any alarms?
Could a world-class coach know real time when a rider was going over the line? Approaching a verbier limit?

And don't let the rider's expressions fool you.
Exertion can be faked.
Pretend to be in the pain cave.

Did Alberto even seem to be in the pain cave?

Anyway, how would your excellent analysis look if you assume Alberto was only at 90% of his limit? 80%? 70% yikes?

its hard to believe a cyclist would not go 100% in GT TT (ofc last TT is a whole different story)

on the other hand i can imagine riis screaming "slow down,you are doin 500 watts" lol

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

I think this is the point. Neither of them (or the other GC candidates at the Giro) are on AC's level. Full stop. Sure they are two of the top GC candidates, but that says nothing about their abilities vis-a-vis Contador. That's why I didn't find his performance superhuman. Did anyone seriously think Nibali could drop Contador in the mountains? Or Scarponi could match him in a ITT?

Implicit in this is the assumption that Contador is a tier above everyone except Schleck without dope, and implicit in that is the assumption that we have at some point seen Contador without dope.

The problem is that there is nothing to base that assumption on. If Contador, for the sake of argument, has always been an excellent responder on a good program then we have absolutely no way of knowing what his natural capabalities would be. As every frequenter of the Clinic should know, people respond drastically differently to dope.

 

[offbyone]

What really comes into question is how he never had a bad day. Not only did he never have a bad day, he was the strongest every day. It reminded me a little of di luca's ability to attack at will a couple years ago when he was doped to the hilt. He just made it look too easy, but maybe he is that good even when he isn't eating steak

 

[Escarabajo]

its hard to believe a cyclist would not go 100% in GT TT (ofc last TT is a whole different story)

on the other hand i can imagine riis screaming "slow down,you are doin 500 watts" lol

I would not be surprised if it starts to happen or already happened. I won't go as far as telling to be under the 500 watts mark but it could be as simple as slow down, you don't need to go any harder.

 

[Angliru]

The final results are more indicative of certain riders having narrowed the gap somewhat. Nibali and Kreuziger finished 7:35 and 14:16 behind Contador in the 2009 Tour and 6:56 and 11:28 in this year's Giro, on a very mountainous parcours that should've favored a rider with Contador's attributes. I can't see anything about Contador's performance that could be thought of as a surprise.

We had never seen Scarponi in his current grand tour contending form in direct competition with Contador in a grand tour until this year. As far as Menchov the general consensus is that he definitely performed far below what was expected of him, maybe he came in a bit short of form in hopes of building to his peak in the 3rd week. His performance supports that theory somewhat.

 

[Publicus]

Implicit in this is the assumption that Contador is a tier above everyone except Schleck without dope, and implicit in that is the assumption that we have at some point seen Contador without dope.

The problem is that there is nothing to base that assumption on. If Contador, for the sake of argument, has always been an excellent responder on a good program then we have absolutely no way of knowing what his natural capabalities would be. As every frequenter of the Clinic should know, people respond drastically differently to dope.

I certainly wasn't making the implication because frankly, with or without doping, I think the statement is true.

 

[Le breton]

I had a question on that last bit - an "all out effort"
How do you know if it was an all out effort?

....

When you are able to climb a pass in , say, 30 minutes if going all out, and you do it in 32 min. you will look to outsiders as if you are just out for a warm up. Guess you have never timed yourself up a serious climb.

 

[Le breton]

.........
These considerations, it seems to me, puts Bert’s recent numbers in a borderline area. ..........

By definition the top rider in a top level event is borderline.