Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[YavorD]

I think it's just funny that probably nobody who has a very strong opinion about the safety or danger of riding Paris-Roubaix has actually run the numbers.

People love their opinion, they don't like the real numbers.

 

[Mayomaniac]

I think it's just funny that probably nobody who has a very strong opinion about the safety or danger of riding Paris-Roubaix has actually run the numbers.

"The numbers don't lie, and they spell desaster for Pogacar!"

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Of course. I can see Toby’s point that perception of risk riding P-R doesn’t reflect the true risk. But at the end of the day Pogi is less physically suited to P-R than SB or MSR. P-R is a flat parcours.

Seems like accepting a small increased risk of injury for lower probability of success.

Anyway it’s Pog’s call not ours. Will be fun to follow him just hope he gets through unscathed.

He couldn't help himself and had to try it at some point. No hills and there are a few big boys that can beat him. If it turns out to be a bad idea he won't try it again but regretting not trying isn't an option for him.

 

[Peyroteo94]

The thing is given how strong he is currently, I just can not see him get distanced by anyone except in a sprint.

I can be so wrong but I agree. Draft plays such a huge role in PR and his engine is one of the best.

 

[scribers]

"The numbers don't lie, and they spell desaster for Pogacar!"

This math makes perfect sense to me

 

[Gratemans]

I think it's just funny that probably nobody who has a very strong opinion about the safety or danger of riding Paris-Roubaix has actually run the numbers.

Thought about doing that this afternoon, then realised I follow cycling for fun.

Anyway, I don't see Pog win here. Definitely top 5 though, or somewhere thereabouts. And I absolutely love that he's giving it a shot. No risk no reward. And the risk isn't that big anyway, according to my totally unscientific gut feeling.

 

[Poursuivant]

He couldn't help himself and had to try it at some point. No hills and there are a few big boys that can beat him. If it turns out to be a bad idea he won't try it again but regretting not trying isn't an option for him.

I think he will try PR several times in his career, he wants to win all 5 monuments, he can probably do MSR, LBL and Lombardia near enough every year. RVV and PR might depend on other factors, ie risk/targetting other races etc.

 

[Peyroteo94]

His only chance of winning PR is faking weakness in a crucial moment and then do a sneaky attack.

 

[scribers]

Or he just rides away. We shall see!

 

[scribers]

I can be so wrong but I agree. Draft plays such a huge role in PR and his engine is one of the best.

This sounds like mvp is going to be covered with pogi dust

 

[hayneplane]

Super excited to see a reigning TDF champion line up at Roubaix for the first time in the last 30+ years.

I don’t see any value in getting too much into the tactics and ways of winning/contending until we have seen RVV and the relative strength of the key riders in hard attritional cobbled races although I admit it is fun to speculate.

 

[Tim Cahill]

The incredible thing about Scott Steiner's promo is that the arithmetic is actually correct. The man did after all go to a highly educated university.

 

[Gratemans]

His only chance of winning PR is faking weakness in a crucial moment and then do a sneaky attack.

On the one hand, I'm thinking "That's a pretty good idea, if there's any race where that might work it's PR".

But on the other hand... PR is a flat race. It's about pure flat power and technique. So, where should he pull it off? It should be on a difficult cobbled section but not too far from the finish. Because after he pulls it off, he still has to stay ahead. He might get rid of others that way, but not Mathieu imo.

 

[SHAD0W93]

The incredible thing about Scott Steiner's promo is that the arithmetic is actually correct. The man did after all go to a highly educated university.

View: https://youtu.be/pjvQFtlNQ-M?si=uWOU3Mu3iTxxFs6D

 

[Savant12]

I feel like such wondrous breaking news of Pog riding P-R needs to make it into a Downfall parody.

 

[42x16ss]

Or he just rides away. We shall see!

Not from MvDP already in good form. I do see Pogacar being there close to the end though

 

[kn0s]

On the one hand, I'm thinking "That's a pretty good idea, if there's any race where that might work it's PR".

But on the other hand... PR is a flat race. It's about pure flat power and technique. So, where should he pull it off? It should be on a difficult cobbled section but not too far from the finish. Because after he pulls it off, he still has to stay ahead. He might get rid of others that way, but not Mathieu imo.

No. After a cobbled section where things calm down and reset. It's a classic move and done all the time. It's about the same as attacking over the top of a mountain when everyone is spent. From that point on its a TT and you can hope group 2 syndrome sets in.

 

[BigCoward]

I think it's just funny that probably nobody who has a very strong opinion about the safety or danger of riding Paris-Roubaix has actually run the numbers.

Or actually riden the race.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I think he will try PR several times in his career, he wants to win all 5 monuments, he can probably do MSR, LBL and Lombardia near enough every year. RVV and PR might depend on other factors, ie risk/targetting other races etc.

If this PR doesn't end up as complete debacle causing them to focus on other races then he will surely try it a few more times till the end of his career (not expecting annual participation though, it's not MSR).

 

[Berniece]

His only chance of winning PR is faking weakness in a crucial moment and then do a sneaky attack.

The move of a real champion

 

[Krzysztof_O]

The move of a real champion

Teddy always wins races by overpowering his opponents. He has a simple tactic to solve all his problems: generating more watts. Sometimes a bit of smart tactics wouldn't hurt him, I guess.

 

[Peyroteo94]

On the one hand, I'm thinking "That's a pretty good idea, if there's any race where that might work it's PR".

But on the other hand... PR is a flat race. It's about pure flat power and technique. So, where should he pull it off? It should be on a difficult cobbled section but not too far from the finish. Because after he pulls it off, he still has to stay ahead. He might get rid of others that way, but not Mathieu imo.

Pogacar is probably the third best flat time triallist after Ganna and WVA (I'm only counting favourites). It is not all about power and technique, there is also CDA. For some reason, MVP didn't catch Pogacar after Paterberg in 2023. Of course I give the edge to MVP on the cobbles but on asphalt, Pogacar would be a tough guy to catch. And I'm not sure MVP is willing to push like a mad man if somehow Pogacar is in the front alone (unless MVP is alone too behind).

 

[Salvarani]

The move of a real champion

He needs to arm-wave and shout more at random things, obviously.

 

[Berniece]

Teddy always wins races by overpowering his opponents. He has a simple tactic to solve all his problems: generating more watts. Sometimes a bit of smart tactics wouldn't hurt him, I guess.

Sure, but there are a lot of tactics between overpowering and cowering

 

[tobydawq]

I think it's just funny that probably nobody who has a very strong opinion about the safety or danger of riding Paris-Roubaix has actually run the numbers.

Yeah, ha ha ha.

How would one even do that? Are data readily available? Do I have to peruse all PR related articles to assess how all DNF's came about and cross-reference that information with when the abandoned riders rode a race again?

And then do the same with all other big one-day races to make it a comparative study.