He needs to arm-wave and shout more at random things, obviously.
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- Sep 12, 2022
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Yeah, ha ha ha.
How would one even do that? Are data readily available? Do I have to peruse all PR related articles to assess how all DNF's came about and cross-reference that information with when the abandoned riders rode a race again?
And then do the same with all other big one-day races to make it a comparative study.
- Sep 4, 2017
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I know you made the stipulation about favourites but I would have Tarling in the top 10 favourites list and this is the road race that best suits his power profile. The Ganna/Tarling combo is likely to be one of the best dual threats in the field.
- Mar 20, 2022
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Just check for big crashes in specific relation to cobbles, cause I think you should assume you can assume the chaotic peloton isn't enough reason not to go.
As for the cobbles, I think the only truly dangerous point is the high speed entrance into the Arenberg forest, where we've seen bikes break down leadin to big injuries a few times.
I also think jury reports contain information on crashes and injuries, no?
- Mar 20, 2022
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Exactly this. If it will work? I don't think so, however it is his best chance to win this race.
- Nov 16, 2013
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Right, but that entrance is now altered so that situation is not as dire as it was.
The tubeless tyres who explode all over the place especially on cobbles are problematic but I'll maintain that a crash on a cobbled sector is not per definition worse than any other crash - in fact he is unlikely to crash at as high a speed as he did in Strade where he was really fortunate to escape injury.
Problem is that the other favorites are not known for skipping their share of the work. I'm very interested in what this does to the race.
- Feb 18, 2015
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Concerning the "sneaking away" bit, guys that's how this race is won almost every time someone wins it solo. It's very atypical a rider is just able to drop everyone on the cobbles and I would not expect that any of MvdP, Van Aert and Pogacar at their best can actually drop the others. The whole point of the race is that there is like 100km where you can sneak away, but you need to be strong enough to keep that attack going on the cobbles. That's how Cancellara won in 2010, it's how Boonen won in 2012, etc. Now Pogs disadvantage is that if he can't sneak away he probably can't win a sprint but there is nothing wrong about having to win this race in this way.
- Mar 20, 2022
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Depends a lot in how many riders are there. There is a zero chance 6 or 7 riders will cooperate to catch Pogacar (if this scenario happens).
I agree WVA, Ganna and MVP are willing to cooperate but if you start to add Mads, Stuyven, Kung or Degenkolb (I put him because he gains wings racing PR), group 2 dynamics might start to make his role in the race.
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I think it usually is. I can't recall riders simply sliding across the cobbles and then getting up quickly again. That is often the case on slippery asphalt.
He has a good chance of finishing 7th, yes.
So much here about why Pog can't win. But there are plenty of reasonable arguments why he can: Endurance, race craft, strong team, for starters. I can't believe he would let himself be out of position for any of the crucial sectors and unless he crashes (a possibility for anyone) I don't see him getting dropped by a flat attack by MvdP. In fact there's no reason to think he can't attack out of a small group if everyone is tired and the weather is bad.
Absolutely. If Pog attacks out of a group of 10 he's got a good chance of getting away (as does any super strong rider)
- Mar 20, 2022
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So it was Pogacar who decided to miss both E3 and GW.
www.rouleur.cc
A recon, a breakfast, and a crash: Inside Tadej Pogačar’s decision to ride Paris-Roubaix
Rouleur speaks to the UAE Team Emirates managers to understand the world champion's choice to take part in the Hell of the North this year
www.rouleur.cc
- Mar 12, 2010
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Agreed such as there being a small group of riders (say 4-5 Wout MvP Pederson Ganna Pog etc) with no team represented by more than one in last 25km - granted most would look to counter any move by Pog but if he times his move right after they’ve had to shut other attacks down he could conceivebly get away. It’s not impossible.
I don’t think it will happen and have him in the second tranche of favourites - behind MvP, Wout, Pederson, Philippsen as mano a mano for example he is not going to overpower MvP on flat cobbles as it will come down to total watts, but he will definitely bring an added (and much welcome dimension) - he is also an aggressive rider by nature so won’t be intimidated by MvP.
Last year MvDP won with huge gap. There was no Wout- so there is that but other than him(and Tadej), i don't see a racer who can challenge MvDP in this form. I think for Pogi is actuallly much better having Wout at the start than not, if he wants to win. Wout is also the reason why Remco won ORR last year. I would be really happy with TOP 10 from Tadej, because i think that would be huge motivation for him. I am somehow more worried about RVV because everybody expect him(Giro and TdF winner) to win it. Which is crazy fact.
Otherwise he would have been racing 4-5 weekends in a row. The races are physically hard but is also quite demanding mentally. Makes sense to maybe show up to big races and put everything into it. For him. At least as he is doing all of them now.So it was Pogacar who decided to miss both E3 and GW.
A recon, a breakfast, and a crash: Inside Tadej Pogačar’s decision to ride Paris-Roubaix
Rouleur speaks to the UAE Team Emirates managers to understand the world champion's choice to take part in the Hell of the North this year
Could see him sitting out AGR as well. I would. Only potentially do Fleche, which could be optional before LBL.
Also whole peloton is racing against him on Strade, MSR, RVV, Amstel, FW and LBL. Then If he doesn't win at least 4 of those races, he is somehow a loser. Just crazy standards for TdF winner.
A few are always gonna find something to gloat about. It is what it is.
He wants to win the big races and are racing them. Chapeu!
- Sep 12, 2022
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The whole peloton isn't riding against him. For that to happen everyone would work perfectly together to not have him win.
I think its gonna be something similar to what happened in MSR.
I can see Pogi and MVDP riding away, and Ganna and WVA slightly distanced but then coming back. Then Pogi losing against all of them at the end.
I can see Pogi and MVDP riding away, and Ganna and WVA slightly distanced but then coming back. Then Pogi losing against all of them at the end.
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