Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[hayneplane]

Pogacar is probably the third best flat time triallist after Ganna and WVA (I'm only counting favourites). It is not all about power and technique, there is also CDA. For some reason, MVP didn't catch Pogacar after Paterberg in 2023. Of course I give the edge to MVP on the cobbles but on asphalt, Pogacar would be a tough guy to catch. And I'm not sure MVP is willing to push like a mad man if somehow Pogacar is in the front alone (unless MVP is alone too behind).

I know you made the stipulation about favourites but I would have Tarling in the top 10 favourites list and this is the road race that best suits his power profile. The Ganna/Tarling combo is likely to be one of the best dual threats in the field.

 

[Peyroteo94]

I know you made the stipulation about favourites but I would have Tarling in the top 10 favourites list and this is the road race that best suits his power profile. The Ganna/Tarling combo is likely to be one of the best dual threats in the field.

We have zero evidence about Tarling's ability to be a favourite in PR.

 

[Red Rick]

Yeah, ha ha ha.

How would one even do that? Are data readily available? Do I have to peruse all PR related articles to assess how all DNF's came about and cross-reference that information with when the abandoned riders rode a race again?

And then do the same with all other big one-day races to make it a comparative study.

Just check for big crashes in specific relation to cobbles, cause I think you should assume you can assume the chaotic peloton isn't enough reason not to go.

As for the cobbles, I think the only truly dangerous point is the high speed entrance into the Arenberg forest, where we've seen bikes break down leadin to big injuries a few times.

I also think jury reports contain information on crashes and injuries, no?

 

[Peyroteo94]

No. After a cobbled section where things calm down and reset. It's a classic move and done all the time. It's about the same as attacking over the top of a mountain when everyone is spent. From that point on its a TT and you can hope group 2 syndrome sets in.

Exactly this. If it will work? I don't think so, however it is his best chance to win this race.

 

[tobydawq]

Just check for big crashes in specific relation to cobbles, cause I think you should assume you can assume the chaotic peloton isn't enough reason not to go.

As for the cobbles, I think the only truly dangerous point is the high speed entrance into the Arenberg forest, where we've seen bikes break down leadin to big injuries a few times.

Right, but that entrance is now altered so that situation is not as dire as it was.

The tubeless tyres who explode all over the place especially on cobbles are problematic but I'll maintain that a crash on a cobbled sector is not per definition worse than any other crash - in fact he is unlikely to crash at as high a speed as he did in Strade where he was really fortunate to escape injury.

 

[kn0s]

Exactly this. If it will work? I don't think so, however it is his best chance to win this race.

Problem is that the other favorites are not known for skipping their share of the work. I'm very interested in what this does to the race.

 

[AmRacer]

Problem is that the other favorites are not known for skipping their share of the work. I'm very interested in what this does to the race.

It will blow the race apart, total carnage.

 

[Gigs_98]

Concerning the "sneaking away" bit, guys that's how this race is won almost every time someone wins it solo. It's very atypical a rider is just able to drop everyone on the cobbles and I would not expect that any of MvdP, Van Aert and Pogacar at their best can actually drop the others. The whole point of the race is that there is like 100km where you can sneak away, but you need to be strong enough to keep that attack going on the cobbles. That's how Cancellara won in 2010, it's how Boonen won in 2012, etc. Now Pogs disadvantage is that if he can't sneak away he probably can't win a sprint but there is nothing wrong about having to win this race in this way.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Problem is that the other favorites are not known for skipping their share of the work. I'm very interested in what this does to the race.

Depends a lot in how many riders are there. There is a zero chance 6 or 7 riders will cooperate to catch Pogacar (if this scenario happens).
I agree WVA, Ganna and MVP are willing to cooperate but if you start to add Mads, Stuyven, Kung or Degenkolb (I put him because he gains wings racing PR), group 2 dynamics might start to make his role in the race.

 

[gregrowlerson]

View: https://youtu.be/aLLbuyWBCzQ?si=g2AywlYkcn-6Hc-N

 

[Netserk]

I'll maintain that a crash on a cobbled sector is not per definition worse than any other crash

I think it usually is. I can't recall riders simply sliding across the cobbles and then getting up quickly again. That is often the case on slippery asphalt.

 

[Bolder]

LOL John Degenkolb 7th favorite, LOL

He has a good chance of finishing 7th, yes.

So much here about why Pog can't win. But there are plenty of reasonable arguments why he can: Endurance, race craft, strong team, for starters. I can't believe he would let himself be out of position for any of the crucial sectors and unless he crashes (a possibility for anyone) I don't see him getting dropped by a flat attack by MvdP. In fact there's no reason to think he can't attack out of a small group if everyone is tired and the weather is bad.

Depends a lot in how many riders are there. There is a zero chance 6 or 7 riders will cooperate to catch Pogacar (if this scenario happens).
I agree WVA, Ganna and MVP are willing to cooperate but if you start to add Mads, Stuyven, Kung or Degenkolb (I put him because he gains wings racing PR), group 2 dynamics might start to make his role in the race.

Absolutely. If Pog attacks out of a group of 10 he's got a good chance of getting away (as does any super strong rider)

 

[Pogacsa]

The biggest factors in Paris Roubaix are mechanicals, particularly punctures. Remember WVA in 2023?

I can well see Pog winning because he attacks after an MVDP puncture. But I can also see the reverse situation. So it is a bit of a gambler's race, whoever is involved.

 

[Peyroteo94]

The biggest factors in Paris Roubaix are mechanicals, particularly punctures. Remember WVA in 2023?

I can well see Pog winning because he attacks after an MVDP puncture. But I can also see the reverse situation. So it is a bit of a gambler's race, whoever is involved.

Technique is also important to avoid punctures.

 

[Peyroteo94]

So it was Pogacar who decided to miss both E3 and GW.

A recon, a breakfast, and a crash: Inside Tadej Pogačar’s decision to ride Paris-Roubaix

Rouleur speaks to the UAE Team Emirates managers to understand the world champion's choice to take part in the Hell of the North this year

www.rouleur.cc

 

[Jan the Man]

Sure, but there are a lot of tactics between overpowering and cowering

Agreed such as there being a small group of riders (say 4-5 Wout MvP Pederson Ganna Pog etc) with no team represented by more than one in last 25km - granted most would look to counter any move by Pog but if he times his move right after they’ve had to shut other attacks down he could conceivebly get away. It’s not impossible.

I don’t think it will happen and have him in the second tranche of favourites - behind MvP, Wout, Pederson, Philippsen as mano a mano for example he is not going to overpower MvP on flat cobbles as it will come down to total watts, but he will definitely bring an added (and much welcome dimension) - he is also an aggressive rider by nature so won’t be intimidated by MvP.

 

[Shortcut]

Last year MvDP won with huge gap. There was no Wout- so there is that but other than him(and Tadej), i don't see a racer who can challenge MvDP in this form. I think for Pogi is actuallly much better having Wout at the start than not, if he wants to win. Wout is also the reason why Remco won ORR last year. I would be really happy with TOP 10 from Tadej, because i think that would be huge motivation for him. I am somehow more worried about RVV because everybody expect him(Giro and TdF winner) to win it. Which is crazy fact.

 

[Salvarani]

So it was Pogacar who decided to miss both E3 and GW.

A recon, a breakfast, and a crash: Inside Tadej Pogačar’s decision to ride Paris-Roubaix

Rouleur speaks to the UAE Team Emirates managers to understand the world champion's choice to take part in the Hell of the North this year

www.rouleur.cc

Otherwise he would have been racing 4-5 weekends in a row. The races are physically hard but is also quite demanding mentally. Makes sense to maybe show up to big races and put everything into it. For him. At least as he is doing all of them now.

Could see him sitting out AGR as well. I would. Only potentially do Fleche, which could be optional before LBL.

 

[Shortcut]

Otherwise he would have been racing 4-5 weekends in a row. The races are physically hard but is also quite demanding mentally. Makes sense to maybe show up to big races and put everything into it. For him. At least as he is doing all of them now.

Could see him sitting out AGR as well. I would. Only potentially do Fleche, which could be optional before LBL.

Also whole peloton is racing against him on Strade, MSR, RVV, Amstel, FW and LBL. Then If he doesn't win at least 4 of those races, he is somehow a loser. Just crazy standards for TdF winner.

 

[Salvarani]

Also whole peloton is racing against him on Strade, MSR, RVV, Amstel, FW and LBL. Then If he doesn't win at least 4 of those races, he is somehow a loser. Just crazy standards for TdF winner.

A few are always gonna find something to gloat about. It is what it is.

He wants to win the big races and are racing them. Chapeu!

 

[Berniece]

Also whole peloton is racing against him on Strade, MSR, RVV, Amstel, FW and LBL. Then If he doesn't win at least 4 of those races, he is somehow a loser. Just crazy standards for TdF winner.

The whole peloton isn't riding against him. For that to happen everyone would work perfectly together to not have him win.

 

[Lorzenz08]

I think its gonna be something similar to what happened in MSR.

I can see Pogi and MVDP riding away, and Ganna and WVA slightly distanced but then coming back. Then Pogi losing against all of them at the end.

 

[Tim Cahill]

I'm still more favourable to the 'big punch up with Jhonathan Narvaez after San Remo' explanation myself.

 

[Salvarani]

I think its gonna be something similar to what happened in MSR.

I can see Pogi and MVDP riding away, and Ganna and WVA slightly distanced but then coming back. Then Pogi losing against all of them at the end.

That is a possible scenario. They have a better sprint and he needs to drop them or hope that they have empty legs when it is time to sprint.

 

[yaf2]

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